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HORSE RACING THREAD HORSE RACING THREAD

03-18-2022 , 08:48 PM
The death shows perhaps to much abuse from steroids. It being legal except on race day is interesting but the horse dieing is unfortunate. Injured horse cause a lot of loss at the window, beware to know if your horse is having problems they most never win with special equipment.
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03-26-2022 , 12:12 PM
A bunch of whiffs in quinellas at Dubai WC even after overdoing it. Would have cleaned up with omnis though.
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04-13-2022 , 06:21 PM
Any early thoughts on the Kentucky derby? I gotta see how they prep on the track before making a real solid decision / brisnet pps but:

I think if the pace is a little hot, mo donegal with a clean trip wins. Horse is out of unco mo, has AP Indy in bloodline… think horse is bred for distance. Just from running style, I feel this horse is going to love 10 panels. Also the horse went 35.5 in final 3 furlongs and 11.9 for final furlong in the wood memorial. Also compare the winning time of his wood memorial to past years. He went faster than frosted, Tacitus, vino Rosso, outwork, wicked strong. Was a tad slower than fusachi Pegasus who won the derby.

If you compare times, he beats bourbonic (last years winner of the wood by 32.5 lengths. I think this is the year a NY prep leads to a derby winner. However, horse needs to get lucky and get a very clean trip bc will be running from mid to back of the pack.

Obv epicenter and zandon will be my other horses but def think mo donegal could pick up pieces if pace is there. Final note- he lost in holy bull stakes. I think gulfstream doesn’t play too well to off the pace horses. That track favors E + E/P types so unless you run against a weak field, tough to beat that type of bias unless much the best. Horse got out slow in holy bull which is not favorable at gulfstream (or any racetrack honestly). irad + Todd = watch out.
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04-21-2022 , 09:28 PM
Attn: Honcho

You still alive? I like to hear your thoughts on the ponies. I wish this thread would get more posts bc I always find horse racing analysis interesting.
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05-06-2022 , 05:39 PM
i need help for tomorrow

i did do an oaks/derby double...4,5/3,10
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05-06-2022 , 07:52 PM
Hope everyone ITT is well! Placed one of my larger exactas ever 1/7 box in the Oaks. Oh well. I did pair 1/7 with 6/12 in the Oaks/Derby double. Don't like Taibas campaign; but little doubt he's the most talented of the crop. Hoping for a good break; & hits the lane clear. I'd take less then even money in that scenario.
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05-06-2022 , 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho
https://paulickreport.com/horseplaye...e-at-aqueduct/

Really??? No action after the most F'd up ride anyone with any knowledge of the game has saw...JL tell the stewards he thought he saw Hoffa??? Ya well that was the straw for me...Done!

Honcho
GL
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05-07-2022 , 08:26 AM
Happy derby day! My annual visit is now complete . Good luck guys and gals !
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05-07-2022 , 10:45 AM
Took 3 random tri boxes

3,9,13
1,8,10
6,10,12

Really no clue about any of the horses mostly just random numbers besides boxing what i thought were the 3 favorites.

Good luck to everyone
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05-07-2022 , 05:14 PM
3-6-7-16 box tri and supers [12,10]

3 to win unless M. Mack unloads on him. Then 6/16.
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05-07-2022 , 07:28 PM
test that horse
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05-07-2022 , 07:29 PM
What a ride!
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05-07-2022 , 07:50 PM
Is this the bad beats or rigged thread? Had my boy jl ortiz as a long shot. Would've had the super down to the exacta boxed without that cheater popping in to win, instead I'm down $60+ race 12. Could have bought one of those super nintendo games.
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05-07-2022 , 07:53 PM
i live 10 minutes from the mahoning valley race track just outside youngstown, went weekly this past season. this morning on their fb page, they were wishing sonny (the winning jock) luck in the derby.

i kinda wtf’d bc a) he’s def a local fave and b) i didn’t know a horse had scratched.

so, when i got to the track i blindly put $10 on him to win bc he’s won me many races before, and how much better could the derby horses/jocks be, right?

last 100 yards, everyone here completely lost their ****. complete chaos lmao. season’s over here til the fall but he’ll be coming back a mf’ing king [emoji1360]



now to lose it all on slots…
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05-07-2022 , 07:56 PM
had to be 30-40 people that had an 82/1 horse looool
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05-15-2022 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiper
had to be 30-40 people that had an 82/1 horse looool
It was really tough to include that horse I feel. I ended up playing a tri with the 1,10 up top hoping for pace meltdown and used 1,3,10 in 2nd and 3rd and then used almost all (maybe 16 horses- I skimmed the real horses I thought had no shot).

I obv didn’t include the eventual winner in my 2nd and 3rd spots lol. I felt the pace made for a really outlier type result. I’m still shocked the 1/10 didn’t win bc those two seemed very classy. Ride by sonny Leon was very good. He def did better than irad who is supposedly so good (I disagree kinda- he had 2-3 rides on oaks/derby day I thought were comically bad).

Thought epicenter ran a hell of a race for being closer to the pace than the other top 4. That horse wins Preakness i feel. I might catch flack here but think derby winner never wins another race at graded level honestly. That pace meltdown is the type of thing that only happens in a 20 horse field where some clowns feel the need to set a 45 at 10’panels which is just hilarious.
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06-06-2022 , 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10
Thought epicenter ran a hell of a race for being closer to the pace than the other top 4. That horse wins Preakness i feel. I might catch flack here but think derby winner never wins another race at graded level honestly. That pace meltdown is the type of thing that only happens in a 20 horse field where some clowns feel the need to set a 45 at 10’panels which is just hilarious.
I might be eating a slice of humble pie here in a few weeks, but I tend to agree with you. I am looking at the offshore odds for Belmont and I want no part of the race. I like Mo Donegal but offshore has him at 5/2. I don't like him that much.
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07-09-2022 , 01:30 AM
Lots of good racing tomorrow. While most eyes will be on Belmont Derby, I think the card at Horseshoe Indianapolis is interesting. I like the #6 Poetic Verse (10/1) in r7 on the undercard tomorrow. Post time 3:25pm. Full field, expecting a live tote board and if we get anywhere near the ML, it's a bet for me.

Best of luck!
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07-11-2022 , 05:51 AM
https://paulickreport.com/news/peopl...-mar-stewards/
Hell i bet this dikhead is lmao...Paulick Staff first should be ashamed to even give anything to him and pathetic to fill space THIS is what they write about. Man this Fn sport and the people in it holy S...Dude how in the hell do you wake up any day look in that mirror and say ya i am a stand up guy and i earned this 39th chance? Mirror dont lie Kent

Sport does not need HISA it needs Honcho...All jurisdictions to end this once and for all THESE are the rules and medications approved and time frames for said meds...You break the rules once you find a different profession period do not want to hear it there is no ifs ands or butts. WE ALL sign on to this because we hold this sport and our animals to a different regard and integrity.

Sport would not exist with integrity and hard for me to support one without it.......I LOVE HORSES where the hell would man be without them and our bond. There is a better way we all know it and we all know why it can not be achieved as well in this sport.
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07-12-2022 , 08:52 AM
https://paulickreport.com/news/the-b...begin-july-14/

Well who saw this coming...Like the Tom Petty song "Shakedown go ahead and give it to me" or is it breakdown . WHO do you think is going to cover this? Horseplayers in the end! Welcome to the new industry low 42% takeout PK5 presented by NYRA...What? Crazy? You aint payin .50 cents for no coke? What you going to do? Your a horseplayer your already a certain type of dumb (present co included) We could make the takeout 100% and you would cap the damn thing and play the PK5 just to be right
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07-12-2022 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho
https://paulickreport.com/news/the-b...begin-july-14/

Well who saw this coming...Like the Tom Petty song "Shakedown go ahead and give it to me" or is it breakdown . WHO do you think is going to cover this? Horseplayers in the end! Welcome to the new industry low 42% takeout PK5 presented by NYRA...What? Crazy? You aint payin .50 cents for no coke? What you going to do? Your a horseplayer your already a certain type of dumb (present co included) We could make the takeout 100% and you would cap the damn thing and play the PK5 just to be right
I love this game. It's one of the few games where you can always have an edge, provided you pass on the races where you're sharp enough to know you have no edge.

I'm still in a wait and see pattern on this.

So many people talk about "How to fix racing" but every time a fix is introduced, unintended consequences are realized. HISA being a prime example. Remember how the Racinos and HRMs were suppose to fix the money/purse issues in horse racing. Why can't they use that money to pay for HISA. Horse racing is the whole reason why so many of these tracks were able to get slots anyways.

I just try not worry about it all and try to find pools where the public is sleeping.

A perfect example (Redboard alert) was R6 at ASD last night. You had the #1 horse show up at 5/2 in the tote, when he was running competitively against stakes winners and stakes-level types of horses in Kentucky. I think he won by like 7 lengths.

I actually had him at 70% to win and the public let him go off as the 2nd favorite. That rarely happens in any other sports event but that kind of overlay happens in horse racing multiple times per week. That's why I love this game.
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07-12-2022 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by easyfnmoney
I love this game. It's one of the few games where you can always have an edge, provided you pass on the races where you're sharp enough to know you have no edge.

I'm still in a wait and see pattern on this.

So many people talk about "How to fix racing" but every time a fix is introduced, unintended consequences are realized. HISA being a prime example. Remember how the Racinos and HRMs were suppose to fix the money/purse issues in horse racing. Why can't they use that money to pay for HISA. Horse racing is the whole reason why so many of these tracks were able to get slots anyways.

I just try not worry about it all and try to find pools where the public is sleeping.

A perfect example (Redboard alert) was R6 at ASD last night. You had the #1 horse show up at 5/2 in the tote, when he was running competitively against stakes winners and stakes-level types of horses in Kentucky. I think he won by like 7 lengths.

I actually had him at 70% to win and the public let him go off as the 2nd favorite. That rarely happens in any other sports event but that kind of overlay happens in horse racing multiple times per week. That's why I love this game.
Prayforpeace on the rail $7.20 and $3.20 for $10.40 and on the front page of the SportofKings Weekly #6 says Honcho big bold letters I do not miss much either took it down out of 1049 mothers day weekend.

Not the opportunities i find bothersome but the people in this sport
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07-12-2022 , 08:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aphbig1371
Hope everyone ITT is well! Placed one of my larger exactas ever 1/7 box in the Oaks. Oh well. I did pair 1/7 with 6/12 in the Oaks/Derby double. Don't like Taibas campaign; but little doubt he's the most talented of the crop. Hoping for a good break; & hits the lane clear. I'd take less then even money in that scenario.
Sorry i missed this APH hope life is well man. Was it you Byk was talking about opening his show today about gather the takeout %'s on all wagers at all tracks?
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07-12-2022 , 08:32 PM
how did you guys get started in this, any books you'd recommend?

more knowledge or models to find spots?
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07-12-2022 , 09:06 PM
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Originally Posted by rickroll
how did you guys get started in this, any books you'd recommend?

more knowledge or models to find spots?
I am probably not the best person to ask about this... because most people tell you to read Andy Beyer's books or pretty much anything published by DRF Press. But those were never really helpful for me personally but I could see how someone could get value from those books.

IMO there's only 3 books you need to succeed in this game and one of them has nothing to do with horse racing.

First I would recommend Money Secrets at the Racetrack by Barry Meadow. The 2nd book is the Skeptical Handicapper, also by Barry Meadow. Both of these are available on Kindle/Nook/etc.

The third book is "The Mental Game of Trading" by Jared Tendler. That's the same guy that wrote the popular "Mental game of Poker" books.

I bring up the "Mental Game of Trading" for this reason: Horse racing is a financial market, and every single thing Tendler says about day trading is applicable to horse racing, especially if you are someone who plays daily like me. I would recommend the Audible version of his book versus the PDF/Kindle version.

I have come up with my own model but this is something I've sunk a lot of time, money and effort into.. but before building your own model and getting into all of that, I think the most important thing you have to do is to define your goal.

Are you someone who is okay with 11 losing months, then having 1 huge month that makes up for the 11 losers? Or are you someone who is okay with a slow grind, banking small daily wins while trying to build a graph that slowly, but steadily, goes up?

I'm on the slow grind/low variance path and that's something that works for me, personally, and that's what my model is focused on. 90+% of horse players will tell me that I'm doing this the wrong way... but i disagree... there isn't 1 specific way to be successful in this game, it really depends on what you are trying to accomplish at the end of the day. For me, I treat this game like a day trading operation while most players are trying to nail p5s and chase carryovers/mandatory payouts.
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