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Old 06-05-2021, 12:07 PM   #12026
NajdorfDefense
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Known Agenda
Essential Quality
Hot Rod Charlie

and all boxed with #7 in exotics.
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Old 06-05-2021, 06:01 PM   #12027
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I'm all in on the Preakness winner #3, Rombauer. Just gotta figure out a way to maximize if he does win. Maybe a big win ticket, plus him on top of a few supers and hoping EQ comes in 4th or worse.
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Old 06-05-2021, 06:08 PM   #12028
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Think I'm gonna play $3 Super

3/7/1,4,5,6,8/1,2,4,5,6,8
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Old 06-05-2021, 06:50 PM   #12029
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

You talked me into a small trifecta with Rombauer on top as well.
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Old 06-05-2021, 07:03 PM   #12030
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

He actually got within 16 lengths of Secretariat! With the help of a 46 second opening half.
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Old 06-05-2021, 07:03 PM   #12031
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Great race!
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Old 06-05-2021, 07:16 PM   #12032
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Winning the super did not come to a net win since the fave won, so close to a nice payout.
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Old 06-05-2021, 07:20 PM   #12033
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I just couldn't bring myself to bet the favorite there. Oops.
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Old 06-06-2021, 05:33 PM   #12034
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Found it funny that Brad Cox watched the race from a TV monitor inside the grandstand. Someone should have told him that his horse was in a triple crown race, not a 5000 claimer, non winners of 2 at the Fair Grounds.
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Old 06-24-2021, 02:48 PM   #12035
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

6/24/21 Belmont Park

1.) 4-7-3
2.) 6-5-4
3.) 5-2-8
4.) 4-7-1
5.) 8-6-5
6.) 6-10-8
7.) 4-2-3
8.) 5-1-4
9.) 7-1-10

Looks like there is some spots of value today on the card and hope i am seeing it right BUT as always those are your 3 to fade.
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Old 06-25-2021, 12:56 PM   #12036
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Belmont Park 6/25/21

3.) 6-4-2
4.) 3-2-9
5.) 6-2-1
6.) 8-11-12
7.) 1-2-7
8.) 2-4-7
9.) 6-3-7

Crazy day yesterday BUT lets hope i see it better today because i hated money yesterday as always those are your 3 to fade
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Old 06-26-2021, 11:53 AM   #12037
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Belmont Park 6/26/21

3.) 6-1-7
4.) 2-3-4
5.) 7-6-2
6.) 4-2-7
7.) 7-4-6
8.) 2-1-3
9.) 2-1-7
10.) 7-9-11

Nice card today and as always those are your 3 to fade
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Old 06-27-2021, 12:49 PM   #12038
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Belmont Park 6/27/21

4.) 6-3-1A
5.) 4-6-5
6.) 4-1-8
7.) 4-3-6
8.) 4-6-1
9.) 10-4-11

PK6 Carryover today 130K with the crazy results from yesterday as always those are your 3 to fade
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Old 07-01-2021, 12:29 PM   #12039
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Belmont Park 7/1/21

1.) 2-5-3
2.) 8-4-7
3.) 7-2-6
4.) 1-3-9
5.) 4-2-6
6.) 7-8-6
7.) 4-2-7
8.) 4-2-3
9.) 2-9-3

Today's card is a sob imo but as always those are your 3 to fade
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Old 07-15-2021, 10:34 AM   #12040
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

summer is here
the SPA opens today.
Wesley ward has a short priced BC Champ rolling today in the Quick Call Stakes.
i will definitely be up there at some point.
May the horse be with you
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Old 07-15-2021, 12:41 PM   #12041
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Saratoga 7/15/21 Opening Day

1.) 4-6-5
2.) 9-4-5
3.) 9-6-10
4.) 6-5-10
5.) 7-3-2
6.) 4-2-7
7.) 2-1-11
8.) 3-9-8
9.) 1-8-2
10.) 8-7-2

Great card to start the Saratoga meet hope we run into a winner or 2 and as always those are your 3 to fade.

Colt enjoy upstate and have a blast man BOL
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Old 07-18-2021, 09:43 AM   #12042
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Hey Honcho, what were your thoughts no the DQ of HRC in the haskell? Thought it was a good call- jockey probably should have just kept HRC straight and he probably wins race (I think whip rule may have been detrimental here as I feel this most likely doesn't happen if whips are involved but i may be wrong).

Anyone here have thoughts on the following topic. Ok so MSW first time starters at saratoga- Is it a good idea to try and avoid the Chad Brown/ Pletcher steam horses that get overbet almost always? It seems these horses always get hammered and it sucks when you bet them and they lose / may not even be in contention at the end (I would rather lose with a horse 5-1 or more vs 2-1 less from a top trainer etc). Are MSW just pure gambling races when no one has history in pps?

Call me crazy but I've noticed lately that really late money (like 1-2 minutes prior to a race) seems to be really sharp money lately. Bet a horse at Del Mar yesterday that was 4-1 5 min before race- Horse ticked down to 5/2 15-30 seconds before the race. I love horseracing but it seems to be really effective- you need to have some of that backside knowledge/ rumors. I know stuff like this doesn't always work but it seems valuable to know what horses are training like superstars etc/ basically knowledge that the majority of the public is not privy to. Yesterday at saratoga- Baby Yoda was a private purchase and went off as a favorite in a race. Even the commentators were like why is that happening (he did have best brisnet #s from 1 race- maybe his speed fig looked bad in beyers).
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Old 07-19-2021, 09:55 PM   #12043
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Anyone here have thoughts on the following topic. Ok so MSW first time starters at saratoga- Is it a good idea to try and avoid the Chad Brown/ Pletcher steam horses that get overbet almost always?
always fading chad brown PTFs on dirt, especially at saratoga
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Old 07-22-2021, 07:08 AM   #12044
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Hey Honcho, what were your thoughts no the DQ of HRC in the haskell? Thought it was a good call- jockey probably should have just kept HRC straight and he probably wins race (I think whip rule may have been detrimental here as I feel this most likely doesn't happen if whips are involved but i may be wrong).

Anyone here have thoughts on the following topic. Ok so MSW first time starters at saratoga- Is it a good idea to try and avoid the Chad Brown/ Pletcher steam horses that get overbet almost always? It seems these horses always get hammered and it sucks when you bet them and they lose / may not even be in contention at the end (I would rather lose with a horse 5-1 or more vs 2-1 less from a top trainer etc). Are MSW just pure gambling races when no one has history in pps?

Call me crazy but I've noticed lately that really late money (like 1-2 minutes prior to a race) seems to be really sharp money lately. Bet a horse at Del Mar yesterday that was 4-1 5 min before race- Horse ticked down to 5/2 15-30 seconds before the race. I love horseracing but it seems to be really effective- you need to have some of that backside knowledge/ rumors. I know stuff like this doesn't always work but it seems valuable to know what horses are training like superstars etc/ basically knowledge that the majority of the public is not privy to. Yesterday at saratoga- Baby Yoda was a private purchase and went off as a favorite in a race. Even the commentators were like why is that happening (he did have best brisnet #s from 1 race- maybe his speed fig looked bad in beyers).
Ya right call imo BUT you are correct the whip was also the reason and Prat said as much after the race. Jersey a little too woke when it comes to the whip of course people making that rule had plenty of experience on saddle and have a very good understanding of the animal and life in general if you asked them BUT maybe missed the mark here and should maybe go back to sleep and let jocks protect themselves and animal under such circumstances. A rider gets careless with the whip or excessive you handle it pronto but imo NEVER take the whip away for safety alone.

When is the last time you saw Prat ride that careless? Said it was Paco then ya but not Prat do not recall video of him ever being cold cocked by a fellow jock for careless riding.

Not so much big prices at Toga so far but have put together some real decent days to start the meet. Do better on pure physicality handicapping off Maidens then to the PP's for answers myself.
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Old 07-22-2021, 10:32 PM   #12045
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Ya right call imo BUT you are correct the whip was also the reason and Prat said as much after the race. Jersey a little too woke when it comes to the whip of course people making that rule had plenty of experience on saddle and have a very good understanding of the animal and life in general if you asked them BUT maybe missed the mark here and should maybe go back to sleep and let jocks protect themselves and animal under such circumstances. A rider gets careless with the whip or excessive you handle it pronto but imo NEVER take the whip away for safety alone.

When is the last time you saw Prat ride that careless? Said it was Paco then ya but not Prat do not recall video of him ever being cold cocked by a fellow jock for careless riding.

Not so much big prices at Toga so far but have put together some real decent days to start the meet. Do better on pure physicality handicapping off Maidens then to the PP's for answers myself.

Prices have been fairly chalky for toga so far. I feel some of the bigger races will produce price potential though when they get the really solid fields. I feel cheap races tend to chalk out when you have massive class droppers that want to win at Saratoga for better know trainers and connections.

As for maiden races, I try to bet better known sire/ dams. Ex: today I took a shot against the chad brown turf horse that went off at 1/2 lol. I played a kittens joy horse trained by Clemente that went off at 15-1 (8-1 moneyline) that finished 3rd in a good race. The other Clement horse won (owned by Bobby flay) but think it was a solid shot against the 2 chalks. Bobby flay kinda has marginal results for the money I assume he puts into the game so thought he was a solid fade. Maybe not bc they had Rosario on the better clement horse which to me shows he probably had more confidence in that horse (castellano on the 2nd clement horse I bet).

I might be at the track for Jim dandy day. Think Iím going to chalk eat and bet essential quality in the Jim dandy if he runs. Price will suck but donít really see anyone else running that will be better than EQ- aka I think if EQ runs his B+ race... he still wins but price will be bad.

Btw you guys, how many races do you hammer on say 1 card normally? Iíll go to the track and prolly bet $10-20 every race but maybe find 3-4 better races where I hammer bigger bets. I feel Iím a sucker bc I bet normally every race and similar amounts. I paid for brisnets recommended plays for the whole Saratoga meet and the pps. If anyone wants me to send a pp or recommended plays for the day- let me know bc I spent a goofy amount on these for the whole toga meet.
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Old 07-23-2021, 11:06 AM   #12046
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

JK hope you have a great time on track. I can only describe how i do things and not a slight towards you at all to each their own but i NEVER listen to anyone else in horses or sports wagering i know i know my chit and do not trust anyone else but myself with MY money when it comes to wagering. Money comes from my wallet so my opinion is the only one that matters how i see it. I capped for damn near 2 years before i even bet on horses had boxes full of old PP's before i knew i could do it to my standard. I listen to Jason Beem podcast during the week but anytime they start talking about a race or card it is instant mute or close because i just do not care what you guys think and do not want your opinions to influence my decision making or not so much influence but to even have heard it going into my own capping. I am wrong i am wrong and right right BUT i am right and wrong on my own opinions.
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Old 07-23-2021, 10:51 PM   #12047
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
JK hope you have a great time on track. I can only describe how i do things and not a slight towards you at all to each their own but i NEVER listen to anyone else in horses or sports wagering i know i know my chit and do not trust anyone else but myself with MY money when it comes to wagering. Money comes from my wallet so my opinion is the only one that matters how i see it. I capped for damn near 2 years before i even bet on horses had boxes full of old PP's before i knew i could do it to my standard. I listen to Jason Beem podcast during the week but anytime they start talking about a race or card it is instant mute or close because i just do not care what you guys think and do not want your opinions to influence my decision making or not so much influence but to even have heard it going into my own capping. I am wrong i am wrong and right right BUT i am right and wrong on my own opinions.
Hey thanks for posting this. I feel I need to read some more books on handicapping. I feel like I know more than the average handicapper right now however I still feel i punt a lot of money by making stupid bets. I like to play pick 4s/ 5s and lose a lot bc I tend to make a lot of correlated plays for my p4/p5 and sometimes cheaper p6s (I will play a .20 pick 6 on say a mandatory payout day or a solid card day such as Saratoga, Belmont stakes day/ derby day etc.... even though I canít play .2 p6s at toga this year).

Ugh I hate play p4 and p5s bc I seem to only hit when the payouts are comically small and just lose normally when a price hits 1 race I didnít have in other situations. Iíve been playing some p3 and daily doubles this Saratoga meet so far and actually have hit some ok payouts when I use key races where I think I have a strong single or 2 horses in one of the legs.

From all of this- I donít mind losing money bc I donít expect to make money betting horses however I feel I have degen tendencies and punt in spots I shouldnít. For example I put on $200 so far this Saratoga meet- got it up to $400 and back down to say $260 now. Normally, I can easily punt $200-300 in a single
Saturday bc I degen tilt bet a lot in 1 race where I think I have a favorite that can win. Iíve been betting quite small this meet (like $8 win place bets so havenít went into the deposit so far). Iíve played a few smaller pick 4 and 5 plays and havenít really come close to hitting any (went 4/5 today in the p5 but one of my singles lost to a 2nd or 3rd choice so lost the p5- it paid a small amount anyway like $400-500 so not a big deal i guess- my bet was maybe $18 so canít really complain). My p5 today had 3 singles lol which isnít something I normally do but even the 2 races I went all in had winners that paid $7 and $17 which is just comical but idk. Iíll be honest here- I probably shouldnít bet horses bc itís such a punt of money. I find it entertaining though so there is that and the money I lose doesnít really bother me.
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Old 07-23-2021, 11:41 PM   #12048
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Btw anyone care to comment on the following thought. Anyone have advice on how to handicap a wet turf course? I know itís hard to really say when the course can be rated as good/ yielding/ soft. I tend to place a little more emphasis on notching up early speed type horses on softer turf courses as I think closing becomes much more difficult.

I think I tend to handicap turf racing a little better than dirt but i find closers tend to overperform on firm courses (especially as you get more horses in the field along with some e or ep types in the race- also always taking class into account). I always find handicapping a wet course difficult. From what I have read, it seems wetter courses are harder to make up ground on and tend to really sap stamina as itís much more taxing to run over for horses.

Itís just annoying when you favor early speed in a turf race say ok a good/ yielding course and they go 48 for 4 furlongs in a bunched up field with a slow pace.... you bet the early speed types and somehow some closers make up ground and win the race. All i can say is this game is tough and I always tend to see things I never would expect (and this coming from someone that has watched horse racing over the past 4-5 years and probably a lot more often than the standard punter).
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Old 07-27-2021, 10:36 PM   #12049
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I've been playing horses for 20+ years..only had to be 17 at my local harness track in Illinois so I started early. It's by far the most addictive and entertaining form of gambling to wager on..but one of the hardest. I've lost so much money in my life betting horses its sickening.

Even if you are an expert handicapper, even if you can beat the horrible rake (pool takeout)..it's really difficult to beat drugs/cheating/manipulation/not having inside info.

I could give stories for days on the people I've met and the **** most ppl don't even have a clue about what really goes on..but I still love it
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Old 07-28-2021, 10:23 AM   #12050
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Well put STL and JK... this game is tough. I'm gonna try to conquer it.
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