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Old 11-09-2020, 08:08 PM   #11976
smartDFS
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Damn Honcho! Nice try, very close.

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Originally Posted by HipsterDufes View Post
On a scale from Nicaraguan to English Premier League soccer, how efficient are the UK horse racing markets (Betfair)?
about halfway between
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Old 11-12-2020, 07:03 PM   #11977
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Betting markets tend to be efficient like the stock market. I would say euro betting markets obv prolly overprice euro turf horses but euro turf horses tend to be better than American turf horses. At 1.5 miles, I would favor euros.
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about halfway between
Is it fair to say that just like in sports betting, the closer we get to race time, the more efficient the odds become?
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Old 11-16-2020, 04:20 AM   #11978
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

i guess so. if you're talking fixed odds markets for us, uk, aus, etc. they will tend to be set around ML odds and only adjusted downward for horses that are taking significant action. so they are not very informative as a complete set of odds for all horses, though they will be informative when showing which horses are attracting early money.

for the U.S. the "true odds" picture becomes much clearer ~30 minutes before post when parimutuel will-pays become available for the race, you'll see fixed odds lines become sharper (generally converging to will pay odds)
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Old 11-16-2020, 10:21 AM   #11979
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

You see a lot of inefficiency in some harness markets because the totes take so long to update the favorite gets slammed way too much. This also tends to happen in tracks that offer high rebates as people are essentially playing for rake back. At these tracks most races you can just blindly bet the second favorite and it will be +ev.
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Old 11-17-2020, 11:11 AM   #11980
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Can i get a hot tub!!!
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Old 11-26-2020, 11:26 AM   #11981
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

The Davison Index Thursday August 30,2018 Vol 130 No 13

Anonymous group burdens clerks with request for 2016 ballots
By Gary Gould

GENESEE COUNTY--A mysterious group calling itself the United Impact Group out of Astoria,NY has sent Freedom of Information request to almost all municipalities in Michigan asking for all 2016 presidential ballots.

Flint Township Clerk Kathy Funk said while the township will comply with the FOIA,it is creating a burden on her department just two months away from the November general election.

A FOIA request has been sent to just about every clerk's office in the state of Michigan. It's for copies of the 2016 Presidential voted ballots ,including the envelopes for Absentee ballots that voters have to sign.

Funk said the FOIA is signed by "Emily" and is from the United Impact Group. There is nothing online about this group. The mailing address is to a post office in Astoria,NY.

Davison Township Clerk Cindy Shields said the FOIAs are making her and other people uncomfortable,especially since there is no indication who wants the information or why. " I have no problem with giving them the information,they have a right to it," she said. " I"m just interested in what it's about. I'm still working on cost estimates. I'm at $6000 so far. I still have to make sure all cost are included."

She has also estimated 57 work hours to fulfill the FOIA request ,with some 10,600 ballots in question.

Part of request includes copies of absentee ballot envelopes. She said the copies will show the signature space,but she will redact the signature so no one's actual signature is visible.

' I'm proceeding cautiously,' said Shields adding township attorney David Lattie has been advising her along the way.

Funk said ballots have to remain under the custody of the clerk,by law meaning the FOIA fees for copying and labor "are astronomical."

"We have estimated it will 316 hours and will cost 'Emily' $16,000 for copying alone--that doesn't include the cost for paper,shipping,etcetera,"said Funk This Emily and her United Impact Group are sending deposit checks out for thousands and thousands of dollars. The signature on the checks cannot be read and the address on the checks have been blackened out,according to what clerks are posting on forums."

She said she is still working on the total cost estimate for Flint Township,but at an estimated one minute per ballot,copying will take 316 hours.

When the copying is done,the township"s legal council will draft a letter to accompany it. Emily,said Funk,sent this out right under the wire,with the release date to destroy the ballots on September 28.

"The FOIA puts a hold on my ability to destroy the ballots," she said.

She said because there is work to be done during regular hours,the FOIA cant slow the operation of the government,so the work will have to be done after hours.

Funk said she and her staff will not start making the copiesuntil a check is received for at least half the estimated cost. So far,other clerks who have received payments from Emily say the signature is not legible,but the bank it is drawn on have confirmed the checks are good.

" I don't know if there are FOIAs like this in other states,' she said. " Ive called a large municipality in Pennsylvania and they said they've received nothing."

A call to the phone number listed in the FOIA request connected with a Google voicemail where a message was left,but not returned by press time.
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Old 11-26-2020, 07:57 PM   #11982
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Hit with Jeweled princess in the 8th @ 17-1 and then connected with Ancient Warrior in the 11th @ 13-1 at CHD today had a win from yesterday and leaders only were at 2 so i would guess this will put me in the top few going into the weekend on the TS Thanksgiving Challenge. Just picking winners is how it is scored so sure i separated myself some today

Knew i kept that article for a reason above too,could not figure it out at the time BUT despite my spelling i am usually a pretty sharp guy.

Lost bets,won bets usually outside horse racing i am too cool for school not a lot of reaction,horses can make me act a fool at times though and grateful they can love the feeling,BUT i do not think i lost my GA,IA,FL Parlay @ +270 i feel i was F'd out of it,and each day that goes by i feel it more and more.

Now i am not going to put on a pink hat and scream at the sky,i for the life of me feel i won this and the frustrated feeling i have about this just does not go away,feels like someone stole from me and i do not need help losing money at all.

Not a sore loser at all,just do not feel like this lost...Feel like Seinfeld at the dry cleaners telling the guy "Listen i dont care about the shirt,just tell me you shrunk it." GA went Blue? Sorry no way i believe that ,and does not feel right to me.
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Old 11-27-2020, 11:06 PM   #11983
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Took 2nd today out of 437 players in the Aqueduct Showdown on NYRA ...2nd uggg just means i was the 1st loser Woke up to a 23-1 i thought but somehow missed a tourney race with the 5th.

Second was a theme today took 2nd if first 2 tourney races on TS and otb in last to a big number. Going to have to run the table i think to figure in the end.

Hope all itt had a decent weekend,Bodemeister was a surprise to me in the Clark,nice to see him pop at a decent price as well.
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Old 12-08-2020, 08:39 AM   #11984
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

................

tried something new - for me anyway
started looking at the very lowest rung of thoroughbreds - Maiden Claimers
looking to see if fave was over bet and would then bet against him

I found another I thought was way over bet in a Maiden Claimer in the 2nd race at Tampa Bay on 12/5

the #12 horse Dream of Anfield was bet down - believe it or not - to 3/10 on the far outside post in an 11 horse field

this horse came off another Maiden Claimer at Gulfstream Park West where the purse was higher so I guess you could say he dropped - he finished 5th there about 12 lengths back and earned the comment "faded"

I speculated that he was a bum and doing no handicapping dutched the next 4 horses in the odds and got a $37.20 payout on the #4 for an overall profit of just under 3/1 - the bum was out of the money - he finished last

doesn't prove anything, I know - just kind of had fun with it........
speculating that at the very low Maiden Claiming level it's more than a little bit possible that if a fave is bet way down there's a good chance he's quite a bit less deserving than the odds suggest

the horses in many Maiden Claimers look so bad its hard to cap them, but it seems easy to say that some of the faves that are bet way down are underserving
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Old 12-25-2020, 06:41 AM   #11985
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

.....................

going to get down on Nashville in some way in the exciting Malibu Saturday
as long as his price isn't crushed down too much

might be a super horse - set the track record for Keeneland for 6 in his 3rd start even though he geared down late
now he's got to go 7

he's the only horse in the field w/o graded stakes experience
all the others have been in G1 races

that might help his odds
M/L - 6/5- I would guess he won't be odds on
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Old 12-25-2020, 06:20 PM   #11986
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

If I want to lean everything there is to learn about handicapping horses, what should I read? Podcasts? Youtube channels? And what are the best sources for info about the horseracing in Happy Valley Hong Kong?
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Old 12-26-2020, 07:19 AM   #11987
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aces123123 View Post
If I want to lean everything there is to learn about handicapping horses, what should I read? Podcasts? Youtube channels? And what are the best sources for info about the horseracing in Happy Valley Hong Kong?

the link from the Daily Racing Form gives an introduction to Hong Kong racing
racing

betting on racing is extremely complex if you want to optimize a strategy for yourself

unless you're a genius, it will take you a considerable amount of time before your knowledge is equal to those who are the best at this game



like the son who asked his Dad

Dad, how long did it take you to learn poker?

Dad answers:

All my life son.............the same is true of racing





some of the best authors to turbo charge your game:



Andrew Beyer, Barry Meadow, Steven Crist, Steve Davidowitz, Tom Ainslie



Good Luck






https://www.drf.com/news/drf-s-guide...ng-kong-racing
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Old 12-26-2020, 01:56 PM   #11988
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by FallawayJumper View Post
the link from the Daily Racing Form gives an introduction to Hong Kong racing
racing

betting on racing is extremely complex if you want to optimize a strategy for yourself

unless you're a genius, it will take you a considerable amount of time before your knowledge is equal to those who are the best at this game



like the son who asked his Dad

Dad, how long did it take you to learn poker?

Dad answers:

All my life son.............the same is true of racing





some of the best authors to turbo charge your game:



Andrew Beyer, Barry Meadow, Steven Crist, Steve Davidowitz, Tom Ainslie



Good Luck






https://www.drf.com/news/drf-s-guide...ng-kong-racing
Thanks a lot, I really appreciate it!
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Old 01-02-2021, 03:26 PM   #11989
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I'm new to horse betting. I got a promo from a book on exactas ($10 bets at Santa Anita are refunded if you lose the exacta, but your 2 horses finish in the top 3) and before I dive in I'd like to know how to calculate payouts.

Let's say I bet a 5:2 horse to win and a 4:1 horse to show. What is my payout?

Also, more generally, is this promo +EV by betting the two biggest favorites (not boxing)?

Thanks in advance.
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Old 01-03-2021, 11:34 AM   #11990
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moneyline View Post
I'm new to horse betting. I got a promo from a book on exactas ($10 bets at Santa Anita are refunded if you lose the exacta, but your 2 horses finish in the top 3) and before I dive in I'd like to know how to calculate payouts.

Let's say I bet a 5:2 horse to win and a 4:1 horse to show. What is my payout?

Also, more generally, is this promo +EV by betting the two biggest favorites (not boxing)?

Thanks in advance.
You meant to write "Place" for second. "Show" is third place.

Here is a rough estimate of payout odds: http://horsebettingsuccess.com/exacta-payout-chart/

Not sure about your second question. Mmmm.
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Old 01-03-2021, 04:13 PM   #11991
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by HipsterDufes View Post
Is it fair to say that just like in sports betting, the closer we get to race time, the more efficient the odds become?
Yes but horse racing is horse racing. ALA a 1/5 can go down to his knees at the break, spot the field 5 lengths and lose by not getting the lead/ pressuring the pace early or may just be injured etc.

I feel a semi sharp angle is to look for late ML moves. This may be wrong but sometimes I feel people in the know will hammer a horse they know something about the public doesn't know and will bet a huge # late just before the start of the race which will materially change the odds to somethin unusual. This is a tough one to spot though bc sometimes the bet is made within 20-30 seconds of the start of the race so good luck getting a bet in in time.

I would say its much better to bet closer to a race if possible to see what the spread looks like of prices. I've handicapped for a couple of years (I'm terrible to be honest) but even when I play p5 and p6s, sometimes I'm surprised of who the favorite of a race is even when I comb through the brisnet pps. I tend to play chalk a little too much and I had a gulfstream race last week where I singled what i expect to be the favorite at post time in 2nd or 3rd leg and the horse went off 2nd or 3rd and I studied the pps for a long time and watch vids of previous races.

Also just a quick handicapping tip, I tend to look at DD/P3/P4/P5/P6 will pays if I want to see who the public ranks as the top3-4 horses. If I'm betting a single race, I will look at the will pays to get a quick thought on who the public likes. This information doesnt mean a ton but odd #s in these pools can show something the ML might not reflect.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:21 AM   #11992
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

So, Kentucky Derby? Do we still do that here?
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Old 04-26-2021, 04:15 PM   #11993
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I'm doing it and have plenty of tips, but don't have any profitable advice.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:08 PM   #11994
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

what bad advice can you give?
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Old 04-27-2021, 12:08 PM   #11995
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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what bad advice can you give?
Follow the hot jockey and trainer of the day.
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Old 04-29-2021, 08:33 AM   #11996
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

any locks?
besides dont bet
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Old 04-30-2021, 09:53 AM   #11997
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Derby- I like #1,7,9,14,15,17. To me, those are the only horses that can win except if something crazy happens like a fast pace duel happens and some long shot plods home to win. you can throw in the baffert to that mix but I would avoid as its not his 1st choice and horse has lost already to others in race.

Looking for a price, #7 looks like he could offer a lot if his last race was just a fluke. I would avoid the favorite (essential quality) #14 as I just think he hasnt done enough and could bounce off last race. I feel 14 and 17 could have went too hard at keeneland in last race and could both be tosses honestly. I love #1 however draw is kinda meh in the 1 hole.

Locks- I would say Gamine #4 in race 7 tomorrow. Has no other real pace in the race and shes super classy. 1/5 on the morning line though which means she will be 1/9. I don't recommend betting 4/5 or less really unless your hunch is strong as it sucks when they lose at the price. Think she wins by 5+ lengths though tomorrow.

hmm I like Colonel Liam in the turf race tomorrow. Irad on board along with what looks like a slow pace- Think this one just presses the pace and wins. The chad brown horses look good but are coming off layoffs into G1 company. A slow pace is not very helpful to slower horses. I think its a good sign when Irad picks a Todd horse over a Chad horse. I like the east coast turf over west coast a ton in here. I think the other horses behind todd/chad kinda are meh in this spot.

I like the chad horse in the Oaks today. Speed figs are really strong. However I'm going with malathaat also in my oak/derby doubles, p3s etc.

As to poster saying whats good advice- dont bet. Don't bet money you don't mind losing. Nothing wrong with betting horses. Just look at it as fun gambling and don't wager money you can't lose. Me personally, if I lose $500 on derby day, idc as its not going to affect my day to day life. If I get a llittle sweat for that amount, its worth it to me. Horse racing offers $2 bets lol- I feel anyone can play the game at any price that offers them a little sweat. If losing $50 its a big deal for you- bet $2 on a race haha. Also dont try to be a genius and play Tri-Super box bets with 4-5 horses. People need to realize that bets like supers and tris are sucker bets for the majority of people that dont follow the game. I can't find the sweat aspect of picking say 4 horses to finish top 3. When you look at how difficult it is to pick the top 3 with only 4 horses, its a sucker bet in my opinion. You are going to lose at such a high % of the time, its just not worth it to me. You would be better off betting a big show bet on a horse you like (sure thats not the best ev) but you are going to get money some of the time vs almost never with a tri box.
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:01 PM   #11998
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

4/30/21 Kentucky Oaks Day

8.) 5-2-7
9.) 6-12-7
10.) 9-3-6
11.) 4-6-10-14

Great card today and weather to boot. I am ALL over Crazy Beautiful in the Oaks today knew 15-1 was not holding but 7-1 i think is more than fair and as always those are your 3 to fade BOL to all itt today
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Old 04-30-2021, 02:33 PM   #11999
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
4/30/21 Kentucky Oaks Day

8.) 5-2-7
9.) 6-12-7
10.) 9-3-6
11.) 4-6-10-14

Great card today and weather to boot. I am ALL over Crazy Beautiful in the Oaks today knew 15-1 was not holding but 7-1 i think is more than fair and as always those are your 3 to fade BOL to all itt today
I agree regarding crazy beautiful.

I like the 10/12 a lot but included her and clairere as my 2 non favorites. i'm in trouble if travel column or pass the champagne win with my 2 day bets (oaks/derby double and turf p3). best of luck to everyone in this thread.

Still have my p6 alive today after an upset in the most recent turf race (1/5 lost brad cox runner lost- not surprising coming off a layoff in graded company). Think we could see a pace meltdown in the eight belles (R9 today) so im hoping we can get a price there for my pick 4 and pick 6 play.
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Old 04-30-2021, 04:31 PM   #12000
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

bet the oaks/derby double

3,6,10,12/14,15,17

dont want to jinx myself but it seems the one bet i hit each year
two other bets 11 to win oaks and dont feel great about the 14 tomorrow

also good luck and thx for the advice
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