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Old 09-03-2020, 07:04 AM   #11926
FallawayJumper
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

...........................

Wow - TTL is breaking from post 17 in the Derby
no horse has ever won breaking from post 17 in the previous 145 runnings of the Derby

there is a new starting gate to be used which should help him because there won't be a gap as there was under the old starting method so he should not be as far outside to begin with

but still, that's very far outside, and he's likely to lose a lot of ground going around the turn unless Franco changes his style and bolts him to the front very quickly

I think it is very likely that Franco will be instructed to do exactly that

it's also interesting that Manny Franco is a good jock, but he's not one of the best jocks out there
Equibase currently ranks him 8th for the year
Oritz is winning at 25%, and Rosario, Gaffalione and Saez are winning at about 19%
Franco is winning at 15%............................15% is good, but not great
some of that is due to the superstar jocks getting the best mounts a lot of the time, but still

Franco has been on TTL for the last 6 races - every race after TTL's maiden race - so it does make sense not to take him down for a superstar
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Old 09-03-2020, 08:29 AM   #11927
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

...................

if TTL doesn't get a clean break - if there's bumping or a late break - the race could be a difficult one for him
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Old 09-03-2020, 01:18 PM   #11928
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by FallawayJumper View Post
...........................

Wow - TTL is breaking from post 17 in the Derby
no horse has ever won breaking from post 17 in the previous 145 runnings of the Derby

there is a new starting gate to be used which should help him because there won't be a gap as there was under the old starting method so he should not be as far outside to begin with

but still, that's very far outside, and he's likely to lose a lot of ground going around the turn unless Franco changes his style and bolts him to the front very quickly

I think it is very likely that Franco will be instructed to do exactly that

it's also interesting that Manny Franco is a good jock, but he's not one of the best jocks out there
Equibase currently ranks him 8th for the year
Oritz is winning at 25%, and Rosario, Gaffalione and Saez are winning at about 19%
Franco is winning at 15%............................15% is good, but not great
some of that is due to the superstar jocks getting the best mounts a lot of the time, but still

Franco has been on TTL for the last 6 races - every race after TTL's maiden race - so it does make sense not to take him down for a superstar

first off, look at big brown. Pretty sure he broke from 20 and won the race from the far outside with a horrible post. The new starting gate should help along with the fact it looks like king guillermo will scratch (i could be wrong but if anything is off with the horse, they would be stupid running him off big layoff and not being 100%).

The jockey line is funny. You can put the 100th ranked jockey on an elite horse and they will look great. A lot of the top jocks arent even racing at the derby this year. I wouldn't worry about manny franco messing up honestly. TTL normally breaks pretty well and is an up front pressing horse. I really don't think hes going to get a horrible trip unless he breaks bad. Tactical speed is always a good trait to have.

I think the pace is going to be hot though. I feel authentic (post 18) will have to blaze out to try and get the lead along with the fact there are some really speedy horses in this race.

One of my darkhorses is the Todd Pletcher runner. He hasn't raced against the best competition but ran a 100+ speed figure (brisnet) recently at saratogga in a 2nd place finish. 4th race, if hes improving and finds a way to improve on 4th out, horse could win. Pletcher does well with the young types so i wouldn't be surprised if he ran big even though this is a crazy step up in class.
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Old 09-03-2020, 04:03 PM   #11929
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Seems hard to believe but I just read that the favorite has not won since 1979

Don't feel like researching it..Someone here might know

Either way im betting against him,not enough value
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Old 09-03-2020, 04:04 PM   #11930
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Anybody have the winner for the oaks?
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Old 09-03-2020, 05:33 PM   #11931
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Seems hard to believe but I just read that the favorite has not won since 1979

Don't feel like researching it..Someone here might know

Either way im betting against him,not enough value
Favorites have won a ton recently. American Pharaoh, Justified. I remember writing in my notes to just key the favorite up top in a superfecta with all/all/all every Derby forever.
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Old 09-03-2020, 08:05 PM   #11932
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Anybody have the winner for the oaks?
Feel you can go wrong picking 1 of the following; gamine, swiss skydiver, speech, donna veloce (least likely coming off layoff).

I think Gamine is most likely winner. she ran 12.2 her last furlong in 7 furlong race where she went 45 for 1/2. The race before, she went 23.2 the final 2 furlongs at a mile and went 45.2 for 1/2. Fillys tend to crawl at the end of long races. If she can go 13-13.5 for last 1/8, she wins easily i feel.

People second guessing the distance are comical. If she goes fast early, she will be allowed to not get distance and slow down I feel.
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Old 09-03-2020, 10:56 PM   #11933
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

thx jk..I'll probably bet the 2 favorites for the oaks derby double..
rest of my bets against them

guessing the double would pay 10 bucks
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Old 09-04-2020, 03:27 PM   #11934
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Is there no way to bet an Oaks/Derby double? I'm on TVG and don't see that option.
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Old 09-04-2020, 04:02 PM   #11935
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Is there no way to bet an Oaks/Derby double? I'm on TVG and don't see that option.
Yea. On the app, go to tracks, go to ďoĒ and select the oaks/ derby double. Itís kinda goofy how they donít let you bet from the normal bet selection but probably due to confusion by customers.
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Old 09-04-2020, 04:50 PM   #11936
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

In the oaks/derby double now, a gamine-tiz the law double for $1 will pay $2-2.90 which is insane/

Betting public thinks Gamine / TTL wins super high % of the time.

Currently 4/4 in my 2 p6 tickets today so hopefully can win.
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Old 09-04-2020, 05:08 PM   #11937
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
In the oaks/derby double now, a gamine-tiz the law double for $1 will pay $2-2.90 which is insane/

Betting public thinks Gamine / TTL wins super high % of the time.

Currently 4/4 in my 2 p6 tickets today so hopefully can win.
That's what me thinks will happen as well.
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Old 09-04-2020, 05:59 PM   #11938
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Had the winner on the oaks on 1of 2 p6 tickets for a solid score. 2.8k on a 43.20
Ticket boom!

I was shocked Swiss / gamine didnít win but finally hit a solid score this summer!
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Old 09-04-2020, 09:02 PM   #11939
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

wow nice poker

I scoured the web,anyway to find out will pays for the oaks derby double?
I have the 7 with tiz the law for a few bucks
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Old 09-04-2020, 09:05 PM   #11940
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

and for the derby im boxing the 2,10,12,18
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Old 09-04-2020, 09:28 PM   #11941
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

get in here with some picks poker

here ill start

first three races 1$ pick 3

1st -all
2nd -1,5,7
3rd -6,7
30$ total
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Old 09-04-2020, 09:30 PM   #11942
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by patriots View Post
wow nice poker

I scoured the web,anyway to find out will pays for the oaks derby double?
I have the 7 with tiz the law for a few bucks
7 with TTL pays $46 for $1. I could be wrong but that is what is popping up in the TVG APP for probable payout.

I have the double for a few bucks with TTL and a pick 3 with only the chad brown horses (kinda worried about the race bc it seems salty).

Good luck tomorrow everyone itt. So far have capped some of the races. Only thing sticking out is this: I really like newspaperofrecord as a chalky single for some tickets however def want to throw in some backup with daddyisalegend/ beau recall because the pace looks like it could be hot.

Probably would lead to a better payout if we can beat newspaperofrecord also bc hes going to be a huge single.

Think most of my plays will include TTL as a single. If he loses, i bust but think hes most likely winner if he gets clean trip which seems it can happen as he has tactical speed.

Really hating some of the races on the card. The turf race before the derby is wide open and the 2 dirt races (race 9 and 10) seem to have a lot of contenders. No real easy singles/ races you can go 2-3 deep i feel and be confident.

R12- I feel like serengetti empress is going to bounce here if she gets some pressure. I will use her defensively in my p4/p5 plays probably however I really like mia mischief/ ce ce/ and bellafina. serengetti seems to run insane at points but also throws in the really odd clunker every couple of races. Think that last race could have taken some out of her and if she gets challenged.... maybe she backs up.
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Old 09-05-2020, 01:08 PM   #11943
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Churchill Downs 9/5/20

8.) 4-8-5
9.) 4-2-3
10.) 7-10-1
11.) 4-2-6
12.) 6-8-9
13.) 1-6-3
14.) 17-16-18

Very tough races today i thought but as always those are your 3 to fade.

**Yesterday JK congrats! **
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Old 09-05-2020, 01:52 PM   #11944
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Can somebody tell me about the superfecta payouts? Does having a .10 super reduce the payout because there will be more combinations? I'm wondering if playing the super deep with Tiz on top even makes sense if that is indeed the case.
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Old 09-05-2020, 02:35 PM   #11945
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by EddyB66 View Post
Can somebody tell me about the superfecta payouts? Does having a .10 super reduce the payout because there will be more combinations? I'm wondering if playing the super deep with Tiz on top even makes sense if that is indeed the case.
.10 is kinda bad for players bc people can cover more combos for cheap so any zany combos won't pay as much as you would expect if it was $1.

BTW/ I feel if you can beat tiz the law in the super or tri which is unlikely, could really pay an insane amount. I think honor AP and TTL out of the tri per se could pay boatloads even for a cheap bet bc ttl is going to be a single square for most bets.

I'll post a p6

9- 2,4,6,9
10- 1,2,3,6,7,10
11- 4
12- 8,9
13- 1,3,4,8
14-17

.20/ $38.40

Have another with a little more coverage for newspaperofrecord. hmm Most of my bets in the P4 and p5 mirror this. I feel I have the turf kinda pegged down with 1,3,4,8. HMM if TTL loses, i lose out on most of my p4/p5/p6 plays so hopefully he holds but need not crazy upsets here.

HMM, I recommend trying to play against TTL in a few bets. Hes going to be a single for most and will be heavy in tris/exactas/supers. If you think he can be beat, take a shot. I really like money moves (todd pletcher horse with solid figs).
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Old 09-05-2020, 05:34 PM   #11946
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

friggin 4

will undoubtedly cost me a 1 dollar pick 4
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Old 09-05-2020, 07:42 PM   #11947
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
Churchill Downs 9/5/20

8.) 4-8-5
9.) 4-2-3
10.) 7-10-1
11.) 4-2-6
12.) 6-8-9
13.) 1-6-3
14.) 17-16-18

Very tough races today i thought but as always those are your 3 to fade.

**Yesterday JK congrats! **
Had most of my money on 17/18 exotics but a smallish save bet on 18 to win at Bookmaker +1024. didn't hit the trifecta sadly.
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Old 09-05-2020, 08:14 PM   #11948
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Sigh, had like 1.5-1.6k in bets to ttl. Really looked like he had perfect trip to pass authentic but idk. Only good thing was a buddy of mine at my party bad authentic for a small bet I placed. Iím kinda shocked authentic got the distance after fading at Monmouth and mike smith passing on the mount but good race.

Guess fading bob Baffert in the derby is a bad idea.
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Old 09-05-2020, 09:36 PM   #11949
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
Had most of my money on 17/18 exotics but a smallish save bet on 18 to win at Bookmaker +1024. didn't hit the trifecta sadly.
Hey Najd glad you got paid though...What i thought when i wrote after i saw the draw that BB would have to send from the outside and cross TTL BUT i did not think Authentic would stay and as i thought with TTL sitting where he was was exactly the trip he was looking for but all respect to Authentic horse had guts and so did TTL no shame in the performance.

I only had 1 question after the race is why Manny was looking between his legs around the turn and not ahead of him where the target was. Could he hear T Stone's call on the track? Just seemed odd to me and watching replay really did not clear much up.

Excellent race imo and best case for racing showcasing a race like this today in a world full of weird right now.
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Old 09-05-2020, 09:43 PM   #11950
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
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Hey Najd glad you got paid though...What i thought when i wrote after i saw the draw that BB would have to send from the outside and cross TTL BUT i did not think Authentic would stay and as i thought with TTL sitting where he was was exactly the trip he was looking for but all respect to Authentic horse had guts and so did TTL no shame in the performance.

I only had 1 question after the race is why Manny was looking between his legs around the turn and not ahead of him where the target was. Could he hear T Stone's call on the track? Just seemed odd to me and watching replay really did not clear much up.

Excellent race imo and best case for racing showcasing a race like this today in a world full of weird right now.
I think Franco thought Authentic was an afterthought and was more worried about a horse coming from behind and not the horse that was right in front of him. Cant blame him as I don't think given the trip, anyone saw Tiz flattening out and Authentic staying up top.
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