......................

I would say that just about any time you use an odds on fave in an exotic bet if it wins that payout will get crushed down - too many people have the same idea

I've seen odds on faves over the 2nd fave in exactas pay less than a win bet on the fave would have paid which is totally ridiculous

I would say that in a multi race exotic a better strategy would be to single a horse that is a strong contender who is about 3/1 and not the fave

of course, you won't win as often as you would with the odds on fave but when you do the payout should be much better

Yea my single was volatile. I thought was a strong single due to likely pace scenario where not much was happening early in terms of early speed. With the scratch of the other fast type, it was almost lock for volatile imo.

Yea prolly why I’m a bad handicappers. I tend to go toward chalk and like to build pick 4s against chalky favorites generally.

I’m pumped for this weekend and the Whitney. I think code of honor could be a solid single in the sequence. Saw article on horseracing nation where they think toms d’tat could be favorite. I’ll take coh all day in That one.

I’ve been a fan of toga so far this year bc it seems like some solid prices have won. I find chalky tracks (think Monmouth, sometimes Belmont, parx, Gulfstream, sometimes Santa Anita) can be kinda boring to play. I like the tracks that bring in the best horses that face off (Keeneland, toga, Churchill, big days at smaller tracks).

yes I agree Tom's Dtat is a 7yo in insane form and will be the favorite.
code of honor ran out of stretch with some soft fractions set by Volitile and could be poised for a big run.
horse digs toga as well.
and the ever enigmatic Tacitus looms a factor off his return to the winners circle in his last.
solid race

Midweek Toga -- especially the dirt -- has been a puzzle for me.

I'm glad Del Mar is back and their Monday card was fun.

I think tom's dtat had it easy at churchill going 48+ for 4 fur early in last race. I like COH if a little pace is on which i think might happen but worried about small field. Will prolly put COH+ toms in my p5 but might single coh in p4. I think coh's met mile was impressive against some really great horses. I think 9fur> 8 for code so we will see what happens and he has had success at Saratoga winning the travers.

Sigh- had a $60early p5 today and got a $10 and $36 winner but lost out on race 3 when the chalk won and I didn't include chalk in my ticket (not normal for me haha). Obv alive to 2 pick 4 tickets but have chalky midnight bisou singled in last leg so prolly wont pay unless i get a solid price in R4 maiden coming up.

Lol 0/2 today during inquiries. Had a pick 4 with midnight bisou and she finishes 2nd in a spot where I feel she was kinda interfered with. I can understand decisions but meh horse went right into mb’s zone and I feel that should
Be a penalty.

Oh have a $15 dd that is going to pay $407 for a slight loss day but sadlers joy
Is taken down from a win when he clearly is best horse and might make it tight and bumps a junky horse with Jose Ortiz on. Idk this game is a joke. Idk
How you can take down a closer when he clearly is past a presser and then not take down the horse that beats midnight bisou.

Btw, joke of a ride by ricardo Santana on midnight bisou. I feel mike
Smith wins that race. Why would you sit behind a slow pace with clearly the best horse? There is a reason why these jocks don’t get chances. Pace is super slow on dirt and you sit? I feel better jocks don’t mess that Golden opportunity up but great race by the winner who I thought had a chance but thought bisou was easy single and pure class.

any thoughts on the travers or the undercard?

Its a really tough card for the stakes race.

Travers- I kinda like uncle chuck in the Travers. For a longshot I like South Bend with Jose Ortiz / new movement to Bill Mott as trainer. Think he could blow up tote board if pace is fast + he improves on last out on dirt after being on turf for a while. Think Tiz/ Uncle Chuck are obv most likely winners.

Meh the pick 4/ pick 5 is really annoying sequence. Have to figure out if Gamine is a single / if you play her the payout is going to suck. I feel a few of the races are easy to go small in (2-3 horses) but good races so who knows.

Troy (R8)- Think shekky shebaz is an easy fade. Was a jason service trained horse and had a really solid end of 2019 however he look meh at his first race this year at monmouth (not a track that attracts the best horses). I think he may have had some Servis supplements (illegal steroids etc) so probably was outperforming due to that. This is another race that is hard to narrow for p4/p5.

Here is my pick 5 thoughts

7-1,7
8-1,4,6,7
9-1,4,5,7
10-5,2
11-3,6

Really hoping Bellafina doesn't win R7 here and need a price in 8/9. Venetian Harbor scares me in R10. Perfect Alibi #2 has won 2/2 at Saratoga and has faced really solid company so maybe she can come off the pace (unlikely) but think she has solid class if she can get back to last years form.

Will prolly construct a gamine single ticket also where i might go a little deep in travers (4 horses). I really hate the top 3 choices in the troy (turf sprint) but it seems like the bottom level horses aren't that great either in that race. GL all and somebody else post thoughts. I wish this thread go more commentary.

the hot wise guy horse is pink sands.
Im leaning toward just putting a hundo on the law and hope after the race they play I fought the law the clash version

Alright fellas drop some mandatory info...Today the Jackpot Hi5 Race #10 at Woodbine is a Mand payout today post around 5:55pm est c/o around 300K.

Tomorrow is the Mand payout to the Empire 6 in NY and the Rainbow down in Gulfstream.

In tourneys all weekend and 2 days left and tied for 6th on new site Sportofkings.net in the weekly challenge out of 1005 players right now.

BOL to all itt and their plays today

Max Player in the Travers, shooting against the top 2, let's go.

Standard for me. Lose out on my P5 and P6 ticket bc Irad calls out his brother when he has no chance to win. A horse nobody should have on their tickets is placed 1st which is comical bc horse didn't win the race.

Not sure why I play. I'm biased here but don't know how you can take down a horse and allow a horse that never can win and is backing up to win the race and just put irads horse 2nd. Comical.

As always I'm like 1/10 probably in inquiries. When my horse is 2nd, they never take down 1st but if i have a winner, its a mortal lock my horse is taken down. Doesn't really matter as i tried to fade the chad brown horse in the waya with most of my tickets. Honestly though, what happened probably was a fine reason to take down a horse however I feel they should place 3rd horse 1st.

Tiz the law, yea hes going to win the derby and probably be a massive favorite (I'm thinking 3/5-4/5 range). He probably will win the odd triple crown this year but I would say its deserved. To win the derby/belmont/preak/kd is a big deal. The only thing that takes away from it is the short time span to win 3 big races + the longer belmont. This horse is clearly the best 3yo at the moment. I don't see anyone beating him. Jock didn't even ask him to go really when uncle chuck was being asked on final turn in what is a kinda slow pace where early speed held well during the day (Serengetti empress went 43 seconds for a half and somehow held after being rushed up).

SE had an incredible performance. I thought she would fade after that blistering half, but wow, she was loaded and well suited for the shorter distance.

Tiz the Law is clearly the class of the 3 year olds. It's too bad Gamine won't face off with the boys at Churchill, although I'm not sure how she could handle 10 furlongs.

But can we talk about Del Mar? Turf has been amazing this summer and Rispoli is pretty much an auto-bet given his positioning skills. You'd think bettors would adjust but his ROIs across all categories (per today's Thoro-graph) are all above $2.00 and he gets a lot of mounts.

TTL is the real deal,race prior i am saying BB please put Gamine in the KYD,then after TTL i said Oaks is fine Both impressive.

Needed to be in the top 10 of 1092 entries to advance on to the end of the year tourney they have for all qualifiers and Art Collector got me home and i did it first try on SportofKings.

more toga stakes action and NHL playoffs.

can anyone beat Decorated Invader?

Have to imagine the thought process in their head was quick with a laugh on this one...Lets see go to CHD to get my azz kicked by TTL for a 1 day meet for the most part,OR stay at Toga ride choice mounts sacrifice no MORE $$ out of pocket from Covid bs...Easy decision and imo probably the top 4 jockeys riding also.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...saratoga-meet/

Huge decorated invader fan here. I think domestic spending or colonel liam could upset. Tough race.

I like the visual from domestic spending's last race against decorated invader. Horse looked loaded around the turn and was going to make a big run but shied at the whip I think and kinda flattened out late. Also after listenening to DRF youtube, they seem to like colonel liam.

I will be rooting for decorated invader but very tough race to cap. Personally I like decorated / domestic spending for multi race wagers.

Btw hope i'm right here but feel swiss skydiver is an easy single. Kinda worried about the distance but she just finished 2nd in a G2 against boys at keeneland. Don't see any females beating her (minus gamine and maybe venetian harbor).


Hope the derby undercard is really good. Hate to say it but feel the derby (the race and not the day)is going to suck. Tizz the law has looked so much better than the competition in the last 2 that I just don't see him losing. Could be wrong if its a 20 horse field (which i doubt) but don't see him losing in a 10-12 horse field without major trip trouble.

Yikes today was rough. Had 2 P6 tickets and a p5 ticket alive to the last race and 3 favs at toga today. #4 lost by a head and would have paid $3800. Didnt hedge just because and it bit me.

BTW if i somehow include the longshot that wins (horse dropping from MSW to maiden claiming), i bink 59k roughly. Horse racing is a tough game as always. Happy with my capping though. I singled swiss skydiver and went 3 deep in the decorated invader race + had my longest shot win and a 4/5 invader lose.

great call on Domestic spending.
huge price for a Chad horse.
I was hiking so I missed the race but bet Swiss .
upon reflection 4.30 was a gift.
but that's gambling...

AC out of the KYD and TTL path now even easier imo...Wet early in the week it looks BUT Oaks and Derby day are looking choice.

Who is looking like the 2nd choice for Saturday?

I'm going to play a $1 super key with Tiz the Law up top. 2 horses in 2nd position and hit the ALL button for 3rd and 4th. Any early leans?

Nice to see you around EddyB...The outside is where all 3 top choices i think are at just got a chance to take a look at it. Authentic is going to have to cross TTL and Manny needs to sit chilly early and just get himself position and a clean path ahead of him far turn and its over,best case i see from draw there.

I have neither rhyme or reasoning to justify NI BUT for some damn reason can not get out of my head MM getting a trip here.

TTL i wrote down Monday 3/5 and what i figured,was fortunate to get him at books earlier @ 2/1 but not for big coin,and for what he has already done 3/5 may be gifting and if can get t.v sharps to talk up his only loss being CHD etc etc drifts to even money may be Christmas early because if he is on his game See ya wouldnt want to be ya,horse goes Big Brown'ish performance imo

2-1 looking like a gift.
my guess with the size of the field and the lotto ticket mentality derby day bring TTL wint drift much lower.
ill bet TTL with both fists at that number.
chalky yes.. solid 50% return in a little over 2 minutes for sure

I think I would find some throw outs for 3rd and 4th. Some of the horses in the race have almost no chance to finish in the top 4 due to the odd scheduling this year.

The super isn't going to pay well if TTL wins and you get a top3 choice for 2nd. You would probably need 2 huge prices for 3/4 to actually hit a solid score here.

I think TTL wins but the trip from 18 its going to be important. Will prolly use him as a single in most oaks/derby doubles and the special P3.

ugh the oaks is going to be a hell of a race. I think gamine, swiss skydiver, speach are the top choices. I find it hard to take GAMINE at such a bad price but feel she could blow this field away. I also like swiss skydiver a lot. Think SS is a better price play but GAMINE is most likely to win and could honestly win by 5+ lengths if she gets the distance and doesn't have bad trip which is unlikely from post 5. GL Catching gamine if she can run 12-13 second furlongs at the end which i think will happen. makes the oaks/derby double a meh bet though if gamine wins.

I think monomoy girl could be a fade if the price sucks (which she will be overbet). Also really like newspaperofrecord in the turf race on saturday.