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05-04-2019 , 07:39 PM
I'm torn because the 20 horse was not impeded although MS clearly fouled the #1. I feel bad for MS' jock not his fault the horse was spooked by the noise. I don't think I would have taken it down.

17 didn't show up, at least I had 8 for Show for a little money but almost all losses overall.
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05-04-2019 , 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
I'm torn because the 20 horse was not impeded although MS clearly fouled the #1. I feel bad for MS' jock not his fault the horse was spooked by the noise. I don't think I would have taken it down.

17 didn't show up, at least I had 8 for Show for a little money but almost all losses overall.
I agree that it looked kinda meh but fact he impeded some horses is why he was probably taken down. I love it bc it helped my bets but yea kinda meh. I’m checking out social media and the majority of people are bitching. Not surprising bc he was the fav and received the most money. Def think it was bc horse was spooked and not a jockey issue. Not going to lie, kinda feel bad for Jason Servis bc that might be his best shot at a derby with a 16k claimer.


Still irritated. Omaha beach would have owned this soft field. Just my
Thoughts.
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05-04-2019 , 08:01 PM
Is there a way to know what the payouts would have been if Maximum Security was not disqualified? Specifically interested in the trifecta (asking for a friend).
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05-04-2019 , 08:03 PM
Horse racing lost a fan today. I will never watch or bet on another event ever again. ****ing referees and replay taint the Derby now? Gimme a ****ing break. Pathetic. The stewards should be sent to the glue factory.
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05-04-2019 , 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by EddyB66
Horse racing lost a fan today. I will never watch or bet on another event ever again. ****ing referees and replay taint the Derby now? Gimme a ****ing break. Pathetic. The stewards should be sent to the glue factory.
I’m super biased here. But how can you say that is unfair. The horse clearly pushed out horses on the turn. While I will say 20 probably wouldn’t have won, ms clearly impeded on other horses. Think that is a clear take down. Doesn’t matter really. He probably will win the Preakness if he doesn’t get spoooked on turn.

Knew something was up when ms was taking all the money. Didn’t let that play into my handicapping but I’m not keen enough to factor that in.
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05-04-2019 , 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10
I’m super biased here. But how can you say that is unfair. The horse clearly pushed out horses on the turn. While I will say 20 probably wouldn’t have won, ms clearly impeded on other horses. Think that is a clear take down. Doesn’t matter really. He probably will win the Preakness if he doesn’t get spoooked on turn.



Knew something was up when ms was taking all the money. Didn’t let that play into my handicapping but I’m not keen enough to factor that in.


It’s a muddy track. He’s clearly the best horse in the race, and oh yeah it’s the ****ING KENTUCKY DERBY!!!! Can one sport not be tainted? This is equivalent to Earl Hebner quick counting Hogan against Andre.
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05-04-2019 , 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by EddyB66
It’s a muddy track. He’s clearly the best horse in the race, and oh yeah it’s the ****ING KENTUCKY DERBY!!!! Can one sport not be tainted? This is equivalent to Earl Hebner quick counting Hogan against Andre.
Bill Mott said it clearly. If this was a 50k claimer, they would have no problem taking that horse down. Just from what I see on fb... a lot of sour people bc they bet ****ty chalk. Let’s bet a 16k claimer that won a slow pace Florida derby. I will agree ms was best horse. He probably wins Preakness in a smaller field without Omaha beach however the horse still came out on the turn and affected others. If I had $ on ms, I would probably complain also no doubt.

I’m still shocked how that derby played out. Thought the bafferts + Tacitus would do much better. Thought Servis did a great job playing ms off like he was unsure how the horse would do. Honesty, with the money that horse took..... high up people knew. Maybe I’m just a sucker and amateur horse players just play beyers which I’m sure is true but yea that horse was not a kd fav in my
Eyes.

Ms will probably win the Preakness so it doesn’t really matter in my eyes.
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05-04-2019 , 08:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10
Thoughts on take down? I had a p3 with 20’and it paid 638 for me for a +138 progit so cant complain. Ms would have paid me 150 so I can’t complain
But wow tough decision for stewards. Yikes I think the rain helped
Ms.
I guess it's a legit takedown by the book... but it's rather rare that they mess with the board on Derby, isn't it?? 19 horses breaking and going around the turns in the slop and a massive crowd... there's going to be veering & bumping during the race. His trainer said he thought he may have been spooked from roar of infield crowd.

It cost me the $1 tri. Had 5/8/13/16/17 on top.

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Still not sure what the baffert horses were doing. Think I Clowned on capping this race and should have given ms more love.
I faded Roadster. It looked like GW didn't break great and was forced behind horses, jock may have decided to just save ground around first turn and not take a bunch of mud in the face. He took him to outside around backstretch and turn and he closed pretty gamely considering all the ground he lost.
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05-04-2019 , 08:49 PM
EddyB nice to see you itt and feel similar BUT for right now this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryImbOTDXe8
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05-04-2019 , 09:00 PM
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Originally Posted by AllInNTheDark
I guess it's a legit takedown by the book... but it's rather rare that they mess with the board on Derby, isn't it?? 19 horses breaking and going around the turns in the slop and a massive crowd... there's going to be veering & bumping during the race. His trainer said he thought he may have been spooked from roar of infield crowd.

It cost me the $1 tri. Had 5/8/13/16/17 on top.



I faded Roadster. It looked like GW didn't break great and was forced behind horses, jock may have decided to just save ground around first turn and not take a bunch of mud in the face. He took him to outside around backstretch and turn and he closed pretty gamely considering all the ground he lost.
I’ll be honest, if you had ms over a 60-1 in a tri that would have cashed.... I feel bad for you. While I think ms was most likely the best.... however that turn was horrendous. It’s a take down. That would happen at almost any track. Idc if the horse was a fav, he literally impeded other horses. Even if I bet ms.... I feel I would go yea he went out 1-2 paths on turn and stopped other horses. I think it’s comical how people act on horse betting.

This sport is disgusting. If you can’t take a takedown... just give it up. I’ve seen worse. I’ve seen gross race riding with no take downs at Saratoga. Always expect the decision to go against you. Good horses don’t get spooked. This is why you don’t bet a Jason Servis 16k claimer in the derby.
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05-04-2019 , 10:16 PM
Btw when I watch the replay, this call is awesome. Maximum security slammed into code of honor. Code of honor was loaded on final corner but then max security goes wide than trails back inside and bumps into coh. Coh was clearly going to run away in this race if this doesn’t happen. Really think the takedown was 100% correct. The horse really negatively affected this race.
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05-04-2019 , 11:14 PM
JK if that is your opinion then it is,it is not mine at all and i feel EddyB hit it on the head when he said it is the KYD...Really what the hell does a 16K claimer have to do with anything,tells more of your thinking...again.

Work pretty hard to put my name on the winner especially come KYD time,i did that today imo. Foul on the turn i agree but i am of the opinion all still had a fair shot and MS won by a decent amount. Lost $$ before won it back and vise versa but this just leaves a taste i can not wash out i do not think.

JK you just come off snobbish when you say chit like that about a 16K...You gave reasons to fade but who crossed the line 1st? If you feel to take some credit to it and the 16K thing was your big indicator then good on ya you know...Hope you had a good party anyways.

Was with some just the most casual of fans today and they to a person all thought it was very confusing to say the least,when it was explained they were even more so and even the people who did not have $$ on the race felt like they lost...weird vibes all around.

Everyone itt can take a punch,hell we are horse players we in a certain category of stupid...BUT i am with EddyB on this one.
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05-05-2019 , 05:31 AM
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Originally Posted by CashRules36
Is there a way to know what the payouts would have been if Maximum Security was not disqualified? Specifically interested in the trifecta (asking for a friend).
Probably 5-10k, best guess 7-8k.

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Originally Posted by AllInNTheDark
Had 5/8/13/16/17 on top.
Meant 5/7/8/13/16 on top.
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05-05-2019 , 09:54 AM
The horse impeded like 2 horses that had runs on the outside. Am I crazy? I don’t know how the casual fan can’t see that. I mean I feel he overcorrected and hit code of honor who had a dream trip and would have probably had a great chance to win with a beautiful rail trip.

No doubt I think it sucks what happened. Maximum security carved out some solid fractions and had a lot of run late. It’s too bad it had to rain as a fast dry track most likely would have resulted in a clean fair race.

Thoughts on roadster? I’m guessing he didn’t like the off track. Think the race would have been way better on a dry track. It’s good the jock behind MS pulled his horse bc if they clipped heels and a bunch of horses went down on final turn of kd... could be a nail in end of horse racing.
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05-05-2019 , 10:33 AM
Can play the would of should of game to both sides of the argument and i just do not care anymore. Think it was a BS takedown myself,you do not,certain thats how odds are determined on the tote is with differing opinions.

I have enjoyed my time in horse racing
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05-05-2019 , 10:46 AM
Looking ahead to Preakness and Belmont, Trakus has some great stats on the last quarter and ground loss. Game Winner and Master Fencer ran the last quarter in under 25 sec (WWW was 25.03). The ground loss stats are interesting w/ Game Winner popping off the page.

Code of Honor had a pretty good trip and rebounded nicely after his last dud at Gulfstream.
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05-05-2019 , 12:31 PM
What a day;hurts. Thanks for the honest reply yesterday JK. I did see thee comment prior to the race. Did not talk me off the #7. I really just had a bad feeling about the Derby after the OB scratch. I certainly would not have come to the 7 had that not happened. Although; at the time I thought the price would be closer to 10 then 5. Taking a flier on Serengeti Empress also emboldened me a bit. Basically, took the win/place money I had for OB and went with the 7.Only other plays were a $20 5/7 exacta box & and a trifecta of 5,7/2,5,7,21/2,5,7,21. I was like: oh well; no trifecta but at least I made a big win bet which I have failed to do some years. Like Honcho said, I think this just left everyone feeling a bit confused. It cost me; but there was a foul. I did not think for a minute that they would take the horse down. Was COH going to run away? May bee. However; MS misstep also slowed himself down. Foul or not that greenness could have cost him, but feel he was the best horse yesterday. Rules are rules; unfortunately, they are not applied consistently in this game. All of us in the thread have seen bigger fouls on lesser stages where the horse has not come down. We have all also seen it go exactly the opposite way. Initially; my gut told me there is no way they're taking the winner down in the Derby. As the minutes passed however; I began thinking about the publicity coming out of Southern California and what some people saw in the Oaks. Maybe the general public looks at this and thinks-well, this industry follows the rules even when it is not the popular thing to do. If that is the perception this leaves; that is a good thing in my opinion. Certainly, it would seem to put us on higher moral ground at a time when we see many institutions turning a blind eye to rules.At the same time; people like us know that this is actually not applied consistently. Bottom line; once the objection was raised, there was no option that we were coming out of the 2019 Kentucky Derby unscarred. I was over it about a minute after it happened. Truth be told; if it was OB it would have been more difficult. Just wanted to chime in as I like talking with everyone ITT. I dont always post but always look. I respect everyone's opinion here. In the end; I was happy with my handicapping along with my wagering strategy. I definitely think it will be an interesting Triple Crown season moving forward. If anyone happens to be in Vegas for the Belmont hit me up. Tentative plans are to watch at Red Rock but that can change. Have a good Sunday!
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05-05-2019 , 12:41 PM
Have to add one more thing:
I just watched the race again in real time-last time. In real time it looks like nothing.
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05-05-2019 , 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by ScipioAmericanus
Looking ahead to Preakness and Belmont, Trakus has some great stats on the last quarter and ground loss. Game Winner and Master Fencer ran the last quarter in under 25 sec (WWW was 25.03). The ground loss stats are interesting w/ Game Winner popping off the page.

Code of Honor had a pretty good trip and rebounded nicely after his last dud at Gulfstream.
Kind of Game winners MO.
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05-05-2019 , 12:51 PM
His greenness may indeed have cost him, but it's not like any of these horses have seen a field of 19 in the mud with 100k screaming fans very often.

The players, coaches, fans, etc. of any sport value consistency in enforcing rules. Was this consistent with how the rules have been enforced at KD in the past? Was it consistent with Tactius' trip in the Wood, when he kept bumping Tax to the inside down the stretch? That was two horses in the clear, ahead of the field, coming down the stretch of a dry track. Derby was 19 horses going around turn in mud with bigger, louder crowd.
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05-05-2019 , 03:08 PM
Wake me up when jk stops sh*tting on MS.

Holy crap.. yeah he ran for $16k, he's also quite well bred and was nominated. (ok.. nominations are cheap... but its still a vote of confidence at some level).. He also goes off at 9:2 second choice. The public isn't that dumb. The most reliable handicapping factor year over year over year is always the tote board. (this is not advocating using the tote to cap, it is simply stating that the public is as good as it gets when determining true odds. 1:1's run like 1:1's when you look at the bigger picture)

You dont like MS due to some solid handicapping angles, sure you can say he ran largely uncontested Florida Derby.. even Bodexpress galloped home second they were 1-2 basically the whole way.. and yes he ran cheap.

But, the fact remains, he ran big and the money wasn't stupid by any means.
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05-05-2019 , 06:30 PM
The jockey and trainer knew they were being DQ'ed as soon as the race ended...it was obvious by the way they responded in the interviews immediately following the race.

I had MS to win, and I am ok with it.

I have been watching the Triple Crown races for about fifteen years now, and have attended regular days at Belmont. This was a standard call. Also, my father has been a horse guy for like 50 years...he didn't blink an eye, and said "it's a DQ" after watching the first replay.
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05-05-2019 , 06:45 PM
legit dq in my opinion...called it live watching at home...told my wife there was going to be an objection or inquiry as the race ended. apparently two jocks claimed foul, and it was pretty obvious ms took out at least three and pinched a fourth down on the rail. equibase chart comments and ky interference rule confirms all you need to know. ms swerving surely impacted the finish of several horses.
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05-06-2019 , 07:28 AM
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Originally Posted by EddyB66
****ing referees and replay taint the Derby now? Gimme a ****ing break. Pathetic. The stewards should be sent to the glue factory.
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Originally Posted by EddyB66
It’s a muddy track. He’s clearly the best horse in the race, and oh yeah it’s the ****ING KENTUCKY DERBY!!!!
I'm with him. Not an expert horseman here, but:

I'd be embarrassed 'winning' this way and certainly would not have behaved as they did. Neither the jockey nor the trainer seemed to have a problem with it. Enjoy, you ****s.

The best horse did not win and that's a damn shame.
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05-06-2019 , 08:59 AM
The best horse didn't even run.

In real time I was not watching on top as was looking for Tacitus further back, but after the replay, I was pretty sure that they were going to take MS down.

Tough call for sure given the stage, he was the favorite, the 20 benefitted from the contact, etc... but he almost took a horse down and definitely interfered.
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