Quote:
Originally Posted by aphbig1371
last post 4/24? Whats up thread? Its Derby week! I like the chalk. My handicapping has always been pretty good in the Derby; betting not always so. I missed on Always Dreaming; otherwise, have had the winner every year but only showed a profit under 50% of the time. Best paydays were on Ill Have Another and California Chrome. With a 13 day Vegas trip looming (including Belmont Day), I want to make a little money. I think OB will be battling for the wire. Last time I was on a Derby horse this early was AP also coming off the AD. Based upon historical payouts, my big play will be a place bet on OB. Ill also play a n exacta with OB/over all. Could pay nicely. Probably also play a trifecta OB/Bafferts/all and a small super single OB on top. Plan to ensure that a successful place bet on OB returns a minimum profit of 2-1 on the day. Good luck all!
I agree with liking the chalk. I honestly like Omaha beach a lot. If pace is a little too quick, roadster is my 2nd choice. I think pace will be moderate to slightly fast due to 20 horses.... however think Omaha beach will take it to them in the slop.
Maximum security is ez toss, code of honor looks good if he gets super hot pace, haikal prolly has shot if pace is suicidal. Think I’m going to be keying on tris with Omaha beach as my 1st place single on most tickets and will throw in some longer shots in 2 and 3 hoping to chat here a price.
Looking to possibly single mitole in horizontal wagers. Horse has looked like pure fire in lower level sprints compared to g1s but think he is going to be one of the best sprinters this year.
Derby day looks like rain again this year. This really makes me like Omaha beach as he has handled a wet track well. Def think the race is a good betting race as you can’t go wrong with the baffert horses and the horse that won the wood. Think mike smith going to Omaha beach make that’s the obv choice though.