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Old 05-12-2018, 11:53 AM   #11526
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Churchill Downs 5/12/18

1.) 1-3-4
2.) 4-3-6
3.) 4-6-1
4.) 5-6-2
5.) 5-3-7
6.) 1-2-6
7.) 9-7-6
8.) 5-7-3
9.) 3-9-1
10.) 8-6-4
11.) 7-3-5

Very tough card i thought today at CHD but those are your 3 to fade.

JK post any opinion you want your a solid poster and valued opinion itt just struck me funny your post...America there is no one opinion color or religion BUT always should be a common fellowship in our pursuit within the freedoms we are provided. BOL to all and their plays today.
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Old 05-12-2018, 02:06 PM   #11527
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

That 3rd race at CHD was complete BS! Knowing the rules does not make it fair! You have the #1 clear lead goes to left hand stick around far turn,peaks see #4 closing fast on the rail about to go by,#1 angles his horse over to the rail putting #4 horse into the rail and rider in a very dangerous spot....#4 who was going to be the clear winner if not fouled finishes 3rd. The 2nd place finisher the #5 was never going to win period,and because of the severity of the infraction against the #4 the #4 had no chance to rerally to get into 2nd place to 'by rules' then be placed 1st as the winner. The actions of the #1 rider F'd his own connections none because without an foul on his end he finishes 3rd still and only F'd the connections of the fouled upon because they would of had 1st place money and got absolutely nothing out of the infraction other than 3rd place money and put in a dangerous position....basically the stewards said there was an infraction an foul and dropped the horse BUT justice was not served at all and this ruling is just another infraction to the #4. Watch the replay when it is up.
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Old 05-13-2018, 10:22 AM   #11528
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

^^^Not every one at once fellas^^^

Still a foul still BS and i still am pist at that rule and it was the cat's only mount on the card for the day too.

Still cleaning coffee off the carpet after seeing this one and nothing horse related BUT caught me flat out funny as hell and if it does you also we about the same age then...Not sure what to believe after seeing it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DzJchsN74Q
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Old 05-13-2018, 11:00 AM   #11529
armyof100
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
^^^Not every one at once fellas^^^

Still a foul still BS and i still am pist at that rule and it was the cat's only mount on the card for the day too.

Still cleaning coffee off the carpet after seeing this one and nothing horse related BUT caught me flat out funny as hell and if it does you also we about the same age then...Not sure what to believe after seeing it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DzJchsN74Q
Totally agree, honcho, was at the track and the #5 was gifted that race.
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Old 05-13-2018, 07:31 PM   #11530
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Just took down the DRF Free Tournament again today with a score of $140.90 505 entries
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Old 05-14-2018, 10:04 PM   #11531
smartDFS
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Agnoostic View Post
Strange anomaly occurring at Mountaineer Park

Normally I would never watch this track but beings its the only thing on after 4pm on the West Coast on Mondays and Tuesdays I have watched.

So they have run 53 Races so far this meet and besides the fact that this is just a pile of dog food running in circles here is an interesting trend to start out the meet


53 races

Winning Favorites = 26 . That's 49%

Favorites ITM = 47 . That's 88%


Beings that Mountaineer is one of the few tracks in the world that still pays $2.20 on a show bet and offers superfecta wagering even in 4 horse fields . This must be able to be exploited in some way ?

I understand this is a small sample but this track is notorious for low price fav's always running there race .

Any thoughts or angles one would take here?
Need ITM of 91% to break even on $2.20 shows, but would be interesting to see subset of favorites that go off at better than even money... guessing they're >91% this meet and may be close over larger sample
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Old 05-15-2018, 02:47 PM   #11532
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by armyof100 View Post
Totally agree, honcho, was at the track and the #5 was gifted that race.
Army your post did not make me feel any better at all...Living it up at CHD while i'm sitting in a 78 Ford Econoline Van parked down by the river
Hope you did well and had a day.

New ruling going to have people living at the track maybe with sports,poker,horses etc so should be interesting to see how it all plays out. I just hear judge Smails now saying "Don"t you have homes!?!"
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Old 05-15-2018, 04:18 PM   #11533
The Agnoostic
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Save Horse Racing

I have been around the tracks for 30 years . I have held jobs from Groom to Announcer and everywhere in between . The tracks and Horseman years ago where trying to save the sport . I will lump in all three breeds here for . Horse racing has always had that rigged stigmata linked to it and because of that the tracks have struggled to bring hardcore new blood as far as gamblers go to the sport.

They have diluted racing with everyday crap cards . Look at Monday - Wednesday racing the product is disgusting. California racing is dead with five horse fields the norm and short priced favorites.

How many times have you finished 2nd or 3rd to a horse that tested positive and was disqualified from all purse money 2 weeks after the race?

Harness racing this happens more but there are still shenanigans going on in a % of races all over the country. I truly feel that if the tracks and horseman became completely responsible for these actions instead of a slap on the wrist or the tracks saying we have done all we can to protect the integrity of the sport blah blah blah.

Here is my proposal and it may seem far fetched and certainly tracks could care less about racing as long as people are dumping money in the slots but I say it could be saved and new gamblers brought in to the game.

1.) Three strike rule : Trainers, Grooms, Jockeys, Drivers, Owners get a three strike rule . If a violation occurs like Banned substance or Buzzers , It should be a violation and punishment should be , 6 months, 2 years, third strike = Lifetime ban nationwide.

2.) Bet protection : If for any reason a horse is disqualified from 1st place after a race for a positive substance test . All wagers should be refunded . So next time I read such and such was disqualified from purse money two weeks down the line I go back and get a refund on all wagers placed on said race.

These two simple rules would make the backside responsible and the frontside responsible in assuring that a fair playing field is in order.

It is time to change the outdated way this sport is run by all the old crusty guys who think they know what's best for the gambler.

Thoughts?
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Old 05-16-2018, 07:29 AM   #11534
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Agnoostic View Post
Save Horse Racing

I have been around the tracks for 30 years . I have held jobs from Groom to Announcer and everywhere in between . The tracks and Horseman years ago where trying to save the sport . I will lump in all three breeds here for . Horse racing has always had that rigged stigmata linked to it and because of that the tracks have struggled to bring hardcore new blood as far as gamblers go to the sport.

They have diluted racing with everyday crap cards . Look at Monday - Wednesday racing the product is disgusting. California racing is dead with five horse fields the norm and short priced favorites.

How many times have you finished 2nd or 3rd to a horse that tested positive and was disqualified from all purse money 2 weeks after the race?

Harness racing this happens more but there are still shenanigans going on in a % of races all over the country. I truly feel that if the tracks and horseman became completely responsible for these actions instead of a slap on the wrist or the tracks saying we have done all we can to protect the integrity of the sport blah blah blah.

Here is my proposal and it may seem far fetched and certainly tracks could care less about racing as long as people are dumping money in the slots but I say it could be saved and new gamblers brought in to the game.

1.) Three strike rule : Trainers, Grooms, Jockeys, Drivers, Owners get a three strike rule . If a violation occurs like Banned substance or Buzzers , It should be a violation and punishment should be , 6 months, 2 years, third strike = Lifetime ban nationwide.

2.) Bet protection : If for any reason a horse is disqualified from 1st place after a race for a positive substance test . All wagers should be refunded . So next time I read such and such was disqualified from purse money two weeks down the line I go back and get a refund on all wagers placed on said race.

These two simple rules would make the backside responsible and the frontside responsible in assuring that a fair playing field is in order.

It is time to change the outdated way this sport is run by all the old crusty guys who think they know what's best for the gambler.

Thoughts?
Thoughts? Several kick that soap box this way...

Sport needs and independent commissioner who's authority supersedes any local or state regulatory body or individual state rules when it comes to an infraction by your identified parties above. Why have levels of punishment? You set the rules,you either go by them or find another profession period.

Lets start there
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Old 05-16-2018, 05:00 PM   #11535
The Agnoostic
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I like it: Also while we are at it Possible all Stewards and Judges should be held accountable for inconsistent decisions on what a foul is and isn't . I see this occur everyday . Some very small infraction occurs and horse is disqualified in what seem less than a few minutes . Then I see a major infraction and horse stays as placed.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:11 PM   #11536
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I think the take out needs to be reduced. If horse racing take out for w/p/s bets was say 17% and gets taken down to 5-10%, makes the game a lot more fair. I’m a slightly positive winner when playing these low variance wagers and I think it’s bs the players get screwed so much. To think they might take 17% out of a million dollar pool on a big day for take out is insane.

I also find it comical they lower takeout for pick 4s, 5, and 6s but the average player doesn’t have the bankroll to play these bets correctly. I love playing pick 4s but rarely hit bc I have to single in a spot or 2 spots to keep a ticket manageable. I’ve hit pick 4s once in a while but always mainly chalk and payouts are a joke. I feel lower variance bets should have lower takeout to encourage new players and actually give them a shot to win. I consider myself a big time degree who spews money on horse racing. I’ll bet 50-100 on a horse if I’m confident and do it once in awhile for the sweat. I feel most horseplayers don’t do this and stick to lol $2 bets. I don’t see how the industry can expect people to play pick4,5,6s if they don’t bet a lot of money basically. As an aside, I went to toga last summer and played a 40 dollar win place bet on a horse. The teller was a young girl and told me you know you can bet 2 dollars instead. I didn’t say anything but in my mind I was steaming and was like are you ****ing serious. I’m here for a sweat. A 2 dollar bet winning or losing doesn’t even touch the emotion I wanna get either way.

I agree that a lot of stewards suck but I feel inquiries are so rare and they typically get it right.
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Old 05-18-2018, 07:42 PM   #11537
patriots
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

justify is the mike Tyson of racing,hes a beast physically
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Old 05-18-2018, 07:57 PM   #11538
patriots
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Old 05-19-2018, 10:53 AM   #11539
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Thoughts on today. I wanna play against world approval. I think hes a solid horse but form has been kinda meh lately and I think hes a play against if he gets bet hard.

Also I think I'm using justify as a single in the pick 4. Will probably play 2 pick 4s where I single justify and find another single. I'll probably single 1 other spot in both p4 plays and hope we can catch a price or 2 in the other legs. Not a fan of the weather as i feel turf races may have some scratches. Really like the chad brown horse at 2-1 (ml) in one leg.

Anyone agree that the preakness undercard is kinda meh compared to kentucky derby day and the belmont undercard? I feel the races could be better.
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Old 05-19-2018, 11:09 AM   #11540
Kurn, son of Mogh
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by patriots View Post
justify is the mike Tyson of racing,hes a beast physically
So you're saying we should expect him to bite the ear of another horse in a close stretch run?
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Old 05-19-2018, 11:11 AM   #11541
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Thoughts on today. I wanna play against world approval. I think hes a solid horse but form has been kinda meh lately and I think hes a play against if he gets bet hard.

Also I think I'm using justify as a single in the pick 4. Will probably play 2 pick 4s where I single justify and find another single. I'll probably single 1 other spot in both p4 plays and hope we can catch a price or 2 in the other legs. Not a fan of the weather as i feel turf races may have some scratches. Really like the chad brown horse at 2-1 (ml) in one leg.

Anyone agree that the preakness undercard is kinda meh compared to kentucky derby day and the belmont undercard? I feel the races could be better.
I'm trolling. World approval is scrathed. UGH I looked at the races and way too many scratches. The card is pretty bad today.
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Old 05-19-2018, 01:11 PM   #11542
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Pimlico 5/19/18

6.) 10-7-1
7.) 2-6-1
8.) 5-7-8
9.) 6-3-8
10.) 8-5-9
11.) 7-3-1
12.) 2-11-5
13.) 7-5-2

Feeling rough today but those are your 3 to fade.

Walking through the Caesars maze ran into the Justify of boxing outside of Field Of Dreams i had a left hand full of napkins and a right hand full of Trevi's gelato so i gave a head nod said hey he did the same pretty cool...made sure not to get my head (ears) too close though

BOL on everyone's plays today itt
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Old 05-19-2018, 05:28 PM   #11543
patriots
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh View Post
So you're saying we should expect him to bite the ear of another horse in a close stretch run?
it would be a good day to do it nobody would see


don't you love when you have a pick 4 running and in the last leg both your horses scratch and you end up getting some stiff that you know wont win
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Old 05-19-2018, 05:59 PM   #11544
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I'm singled to justify in the pick 4 and its going to pay a shade under $22. LOL this game is goofy. Gotta say this race card is pure ****. All horses winning or on the front end. The turf races which i like much more than dirt are almost all taken off and the turf course is slower than molasses.

ughh hope the belmont is a nice day. I'm not a fan of sloppy tracks with a big bias that allows for all chalk to win.

I'm rooting for justify to lose. I think quip and good magic are solid bets. The track is favoring front end horses. I feel quip could be a nice play as he is fresher than good magic + justify. I mean justify is most likely winner but think its pointless to play a 2/5 horse coming off a 2 week layoff. gl everyone.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:19 AM   #11545
The Agnoostic
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
I'm singled to justify in the pick 4 and its going to pay a shade under $22. LOL this game is goofy. Gotta say this race card is pure ****. All horses winning or on the front end. The turf races which i like much more than dirt are almost all taken off and the turf course is slower than molasses.

ughh hope the belmont is a nice day. I'm not a fan of sloppy tracks with a big bias that allows for all chalk to win.

I'm rooting for justify to lose. I think quip and good magic are solid bets. The track is favoring front end horses. I feel quip could be a nice play as he is fresher than good magic + justify. I mean justify is most likely winner but think its pointless to play a 2/5 horse coming off a 2 week layoff. gl everyone.


I am so happy Justify won this race . There is going to be so much DEAD money in the pool come Belmont day .

The public is going to Slam the hell out of this horse in the Pick 3 and 4 pools and I will be taking full advantage of what I see as a horse who absolutely will not win the Belmont Stakes.

Justify took advantage of a wet fast surface at Churchill on Derby day and the horses that would have beat him got hung up in Traffic and really never had a chance .

Today Justify took advantage of another speed favoring surface and was a very tired race horse at the end in very modest fractions . He is going to lose on Belmont day , History and his body say that .
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Old 05-20-2018, 08:44 AM   #11546
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Going to have to wait and see who the new shooters will be come Belmont time but i have to believe the extra week will help and while i do believe he is vulnerable in NY if memory serves no one of recent has closed to win the Belmont and maybe he can get position and hold on...right now gut tells me to go against that race took something out of him but showed nice heart.

GM ran to damn good for 4th imo,and prickly likes Bravazo some and thought that little shift at the end cost him some but not enough for the W. The #8 flying at the end was nice for the finish what i could see but holy cow what a wet one yesterday.

Card def chalked out with all the defections due to the weather and mother nature she do not take request so what ya going to do hoping NY has a fast dry Belmont day i believe the under card there is very decent.
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Old 05-20-2018, 11:05 AM   #11547
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Agnoostic View Post
I am so happy Justify won this race . There is going to be so much DEAD money in the pool come Belmont day .

The public is going to Slam the hell out of this horse in the Pick 3 and 4 pools and I will be taking full advantage of what I see as a horse who absolutely will not win the Belmont Stakes.

Justify took advantage of a wet fast surface at Churchill on Derby day and the horses that would have beat him got hung up in Traffic and really never had a chance .

Today Justify took advantage of another speed favoring surface and was a very tired race horse at the end in very modest fractions . He is going to lose on Belmont day , History and his body say that .
I agree to an extent. I feel audible won’t run in the Belmont due to common ownership. I also think justify could get an easy lead with no challenge because good magic won’t be in the race. I will be fading justify though and really hope the media keeps treating him as untouchable.

I loved the ride from Jose Ortiz. I think if he doesn’t pressure justify, the race is an easy win for justify. I think it was a great aggressive ride however I def think he cost his horse a better finish. He prolly finishes 2nd if he sits off pace I feel. From what I read, Chad Brown wasn’t thrilled with the tactics.

It was a great race and finish. I don’t think it ends that way if gm doesn’t hook justify. I def gained respect for justify bc a lot of horses would be done due to the early duel. I really hope audible runs in the Belmont. Think he would have an excellent chance to win at a solid price like 5-1 which I would hammer.
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Old 05-20-2018, 11:47 AM   #11548
The Agnoostic
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

This is Big Brown all over again . There are going to be speed horses on Belmont day . I mentioned it before . I want Hofburg to race in the Belmont . I will be using every horse in the pick 3,s and 4,s excluding Justify .

This is a super good spot to wager .
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Old 05-20-2018, 12:22 PM   #11549
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Agnoostic View Post
This is Big Brown all over again . There are going to be speed horses on Belmont day . I mentioned it before . I want Hofburg to race in the Belmont . I will be using every horse in the pick 3,s and 4,s excluding Justify .

This is a super good spot to wager .
From what I’ve seen on horse racing nation, I don’t know where the speed will come from. My boy jack, hofburg, Solomoni (probably doesn’t go bc a baffert horse), Vino Rosso, etc. These horses aren’t going to go after justify early. Also a fast track might benefit justify. Just my thoughts.
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Old 05-20-2018, 12:34 PM   #11550
Kurn, son of Mogh
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
From what I’ve seen on horse racing nation, I don’t know where the speed will come from. My boy jack, hofburg, Solomoni (probably doesn’t go bc a baffert horse), Vino Rosso, etc. These horses aren’t going to go after justify early. Also a fast track might benefit justify. Just my thoughts.
tbh, pace isn't the main issue. Racing surface is. Justify has 3 races at Santa Anita and 2 over wet, speed favoring tracks in the east.

"Big Sandy" is a totally different surface that eats speed horses (and California horses) for lunch.

Justify is 100% unbettable in the Belmont at the price he'll be.
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