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Old 05-04-2018, 12:40 PM   #11501
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Going to play it like i want to today being i am going with A Midnight Bisou,B Monomoy Girl,C Coach Rocks...Those are your 3 to fade in the Oaks.

Have a lot more to say and plays posted for tomorrow. BOL to all itt on their plays.
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Old 05-04-2018, 01:09 PM   #11502
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I'm really digging midnight bisou and eskimo kisses in the oaks. I think monomy girl is going to need to break well and will be strung along on a hot pace.

Planning to fade abel tasman also off the layoff (think 3/5 is comical off a layoff against quality).

My day is money so far. left work early and hit a 12-1 winner already. Hopefully can hit the oaks hard.
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Old 05-04-2018, 10:40 PM   #11503
MidWestSide
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I just haven't seen enough to get a good feeling on just 1 horse to key. I may have to avoid the super because it will cost so much. Honcho i see you like mm I can't find anyone talking highly on him his price should get higher. If you are right big money coming your way
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Old 05-05-2018, 06:24 AM   #11504
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by MidWestSide View Post
I just haven't seen enough to get a good feeling on just 1 horse to key. I may have to avoid the super because it will cost so much. Honcho i see you like mm I can't find anyone talking highly on him his price should get higher. If you are right big money coming your way
"I'm going to play it like i want to" meaning same as i described couple years back in prior post knew MG was a freak BUT just love a gal with heart and i knew MB would give her all and was not disappointed in the effort at all one hell of a race and will post after todays events what i thought of JV and his claim of foul.

Mid i have no care at all what any one else thinks the $$ comes out of my wallet so that is who i listen to and trust. Like with Byk show i really do not care for the guy BUT i can tune him out and get to the guest like a Todd Pletcher and get the info from the horse trainers mouth so to speak and i hope your right because right now i am not moving off MM no one is going to tell me chit sure everyone knows this about me now. Looking at gallops and body language i thought Justify just screamed confidence and looked like a beast.

About 12 hours out fellas and bunch of great ones prior. Thank you to the women of Louisville that is one thing about Kentucky the women are fast and the horses pretty. Giddyup
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Old 05-05-2018, 08:14 AM   #11505
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

See what happens when i write up MBJ he goes from 30-1 ML to 5-1 at present....Knew it ...All chit talking aside it was on the video and was shocked seeing the price right now and may just play THIS race...Will post up the 3 to fade shortly capping is done waiting on changes but will have up after 9am est get the road work in then nothing but getting after it.
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Old 05-05-2018, 09:10 AM   #11506
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Churchill Downs 5/5/18 Kentucky Derby Day

6.) 8-1-3
7.) 5-7-8
8.) 7-3-5
9.) 6-10-5
10.) 5-8-7
11.) 10-7-9
12.) 16-7-10

Not a lot to say that you fellas do not see i am sure that is opportunity everywhere today on the card and the KYD has the potential to be a special one. BOL to all and their plays today.
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Old 05-05-2018, 10:06 AM   #11507
armyof100
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

My favorite post of the year! Let's get it Honcho! Hope you been doing well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
Churchill Downs 5/5/18 Kentucky Derby Day

6.) 8-1-3
7.) 5-7-8
8.) 7-3-5
9.) 6-10-5
10.) 5-8-7
11.) 10-7-9
12.) 16-7-10

Not a lot to say that you fellas do not see i am sure that is opportunity everywhere today on the card and the KYD has the potential to be a special one. BOL to all and their plays today.
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:22 PM   #11508
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

How the heck is MBJ 5-1 now? I know early money etc etc, someone had to put a massive amount on him. I wanted to see him around 20-30 to 1 lol. Not a fan of him from 10 or 15-1.

Have him in futures pool 4 though so i guess its a good sign people are betting him lol. MEH not confident in my capping after oaks yesterday. I plan to not let justify beat me. I feel justify is going to get a nice clean trip off the bad speed and will take over. IF hes the real deal, he will win with a clean trip.

Agree on MM also. If he runs straight late, could be a dominant horse. So excited for the derby. Think i'm going to play a cheap pick 4 ticket and play mostly tris for the derby hoping I can hit a big number. Hoping the pace is suicidal and I someone can hit a tri with some closers but probably unlikely. GL everyone.
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Old 05-05-2018, 02:15 PM   #11509
NajdorfDefense
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I guess people think it will rain all day for MBJ to have those odds wtf.

Anyway, liking Bolt d'oro to win/atb. Hoping he slides from 8-1 but it's a fair price.

Audible, Mendelssohn, Justify in exotics, with Bolt in all places.
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Old 05-05-2018, 04:58 PM   #11510
armyof100
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I have no idea with this track. Flameaway and lone sailor get a bump for me. Still Like Justify up top.
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Old 05-05-2018, 05:46 PM   #11511
takeallmymoney
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I'm terrible at betting horses (lost every bet over $100 i've ever placed) so I should stay away from any and all races.

Instead earlier today I threw $500 on Good Magic to place.

I'm just about ready to start on a bottle of scotch (laphroaig) so I can begin to ease the pain I am sure to suffer. And after a couple more months I'll probably do this again...I never learn.:-)
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Old 05-05-2018, 06:37 PM   #11512
smartDFS
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by takeallmymoney View Post
I'm terrible at betting horses (lost every bet over $100 i've ever placed) so I should stay away from any and all races.

Instead earlier today I threw $500 on Good Magic to place.

I'm just about ready to start on a bottle of scotch (laphroaig) so I can begin to ease the pain I am sure to suffer. And after a couple more months I'll probably do this again...I never learn.:-)
standard handicapping experience imo
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Old 05-05-2018, 06:39 PM   #11513
smartDFS
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

so at the risk of looking very stupid, why does anyone like bolt d'oro? topped out as 2 yo, dude got absolutely dominated by justify who didnt even have to work hard to school him, and he has 1 1/6m max distance written all over him, dont understand how he's going 1 1/4

such is horse racing... gl all

super layer:
7,14
7,9,14
7,6,9,12,14,15
7,6,9,12,14,15
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Old 05-05-2018, 07:24 PM   #11514
armyof100
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by smartDFS View Post
so at the risk of looking very stupid, why does anyone like bolt d'oro? topped out as 2 yo, dude got absolutely dominated by justify who didnt even have to work hard to school him, and he has 1 1/6m max distance written all over him, dont understand how he's going 1 1/4

such is horse racing... gl all

super layer:
7,14
7,9,14
7,6,9,12,14,15
7,6,9,12,14,15
Oh so close, how the hell did you have 15
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Old 05-05-2018, 07:35 PM   #11515
takeallmymoney
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

so....I just won like $1800. :-o

I can't believe it. I was going back and forth between betting to win and doing some exacta bets and a few minutes before i placed the bet i just decided to do a straight $500 on a place bet (which i have never done before) and my horse finishes 2nd. :-D

I'm a bit buzzed now from the scotch and i'm a have a good blackout experience now (going to wake up tomorrow wondering if i dreamt all this only to confirm it again when i'm sober).

I still shouldn't bet on horses though. :-D
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Old 05-05-2018, 08:10 PM   #11516
icanadd
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Almost no one should be betting horses. That said they are more fun than most recreational drugs and they donít ruin you health.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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Old 05-05-2018, 09:17 PM   #11517
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Lol I disagree with no one should be betting horses. A lot of variance however a lot of stupid money. The vig is insane but I find breakeven play is easy if you donít play pick 4s etc.

How was everyoneís day? I started with 500, went down to 150 after derby bets all placed. Meh thank god I covered justify hard. I thought my boy jacks price was comicallly stupid. I liked him but not 6-1. Audible was my make $ horse. Bummed about tri. Had justify up top over bolt and almost all for a tri so if I just includ good magic I hit.

Way too chalky for my liking with tri. I hit justify and exacta but payouts were not too good. Pick 4 payout was insane. I went 2/4 lol for a $120 ticket which was a day killer. Why I wanna stop pick 4s for good. Prolly the worst bet for me in Horseracing.
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Old 05-06-2018, 08:17 AM   #11518
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Army doing alright man thanks for asking and thanks for saying that HRT has some solid posters.

Thought i would at least wait for MM finish up before posting up Now makes me 2/2 but not in a profitable way. Crushed that prop Audible vs B'DO but that is about it a few small hits during day BUT what an anticlimatic race imo and i hit an exacta thinking so much anticipation had to get chalky results because the horse gods have a hell of a sense of humor. Track made the race imo any horse behind outside of a couple did not care for the kick back at all and could see it in their body language BUT Justify ran eyeballs out and congrats.

BB looked like some folks sofa covered in plastic like that BB you can afford a new suit man you just one the KYD hell man strip to boxers and cowboy boots i know fellas a more disturbing visual i could not of created on a sunday morning but getting my point....after typing that and getting the visual i need help maybe because i obv aint right

Churchill did not F the casual KYD player and have the PK6 carry to today's card did they...O wait...I mean benefit horse player HUGE.

icanadd
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Old 05-06-2018, 03:57 PM   #11519
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
Army doing alright man thanks for asking and thanks for saying that HRT has some solid posters.

Thought i would at least wait for MM finish up before posting up Now makes me 2/2 but not in a profitable way. Crushed that prop Audible vs B'DO but that is about it a few small hits during day BUT what an anticlimatic race imo and i hit an exacta thinking so much anticipation had to get chalky results because the horse gods have a hell of a sense of humor. Track made the race imo any horse behind outside of a couple did not care for the kick back at all and could see it in their body language BUT Justify ran eyeballs out and congrats.

BB looked like some folks sofa covered in plastic like that BB you can afford a new suit man you just one the KYD hell man strip to boxers and cowboy boots i know fellas a more disturbing visual i could not of created on a sunday morning but getting my point....after typing that and getting the visual i need help maybe because i obv aint right

Churchill did not F the casual KYD player and have the PK6 carry to today's card did they...O wait...I mean benefit horse player HUGE.

icanadd

Honcho, you are spot on with BB looking like an old folks home sofa. I thought it was funny how todd pletcher was wearing a dodge ram jacket. Do they all just whore themselves out for money? Horseracing is an interesting crowd.

I find it obnoxious Johnny weir is still doing the derby show. Also I thought it was funny how the ceo of winstar was bringing up god in the winning ceremony. I find people like that so obnoxious. People in Kentucky aren't the brightest folks i guess.

Justify probably will lose the belmont in my opinion. See no one challenging him in the Preakness as all the top guns from derby are skipping it. I feel it will be tough for justify to win the belmont against much fresher horses.

I'm bummed audible didn't get up for the win. Thought he had a great shot if Castellano has him closer early on in the race. Also think the ride on my boy jack was terrible. KD is a really avg jock. He made up so much ground down the stretch and i wonder if mbj wins if he takes him wide on final turn. MBJ had to steady hard behind a horse backing up late which prolly killed his chances.
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Old 05-06-2018, 06:16 PM   #11520
aphbig1371
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Hope everyone had a good Derby. Ended up on the winner, yet still managed to be down $15 for the day. Kind of a disturbing pattern as Ive made the same mistake in 3 Derbys now. However; Id probably feel like a genius if Instilled Regard would have moved up. Think well have a live one going into New York.
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Old 05-09-2018, 12:18 AM   #11521
The Agnoostic
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Strange anomaly occurring at Mountaineer Park

Normally I would never watch this track but beings its the only thing on after 4pm on the West Coast on Mondays and Tuesdays I have watched.

So they have run 53 Races so far this meet and besides the fact that this is just a pile of dog food running in circles here is an interesting trend to start out the meet


53 races

Winning Favorites = 26 . That's 49%

Favorites ITM = 47 . That's 88%


Beings that Mountaineer is one of the few tracks in the world that still pays $2.20 on a show bet and offers superfecta wagering even in 4 horse fields . This must be able to be exploited in some way ?

I understand this is a small sample but this track is notorious for low price fav's always running there race .

Any thoughts or angles one would take here?
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Old 05-09-2018, 12:23 AM   #11522
The Agnoostic
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by aphbig1371 View Post
Hope everyone had a good Derby. Ended up on the winner, yet still managed to be down $15 for the day. Kind of a disturbing pattern as Ive made the same mistake in 3 Derbys now. However; Id probably feel like a genius if Instilled Regard would have moved up. Think well have a live one going into New York.

I am not so sure Justify is the Horse everybody is making him out to be. Besides the quick half in the derby I found really nothing super about his performance. He ran a clean race and benefitted from that clean trip. The horse who I thought ran the best derby was Hofburg . If you just watch his race from start to finish I am really liking this horse and I think he will be a force to recognized by the end of 2018 .
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Old 05-10-2018, 07:14 AM   #11523
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Honcho, you are spot on with BB looking like an old folks home sofa. I thought it was funny how todd pletcher was wearing a dodge ram jacket. Do they all just whore themselves out for money? Horseracing is an interesting crowd.

I find it obnoxious Johnny weir is still doing the derby show. Also I thought it was funny how the ceo of winstar was bringing up god in the winning ceremony. I find people like that so obnoxious. People in Kentucky aren't the brightest folks i guess.

Justify probably will lose the belmont in my opinion. See no one challenging him in the Preakness as all the top guns from derby are skipping it. I feel it will be tough for justify to win the belmont against much fresher horses.

I'm bummed audible didn't get up for the win. Thought he had a great shot if Castellano has him closer early on in the race. Also think the ride on my boy jack was terrible. KD is a really avg jock. He made up so much ground down the stretch and i wonder if mbj wins if he takes him wide on final turn. MBJ had to steady hard behind a horse backing up late which prolly killed his chances.
You say he is the CEO of Winstar?...CEO right? And talking about God Holy Cow what a Fool! Imagine if he was not from Kentucky and a believer what he might of accomplished in life. Once you provide evidence your from KY and ignorant the millions just start rolling in. One thing i can not stand is people who are intolerant to other peoples beliefs and God loving people from KY they are the worse

GCF!
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Old 05-12-2018, 08:29 AM   #11524
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

TA i do not know a lot who play at Mountaineer even with the added dime i believe it is where bridge jumpers go to die because of it i am told.

JK was just giving you chit your statement it reminded me of the part in Austin Powers about the Dutch...GCF God Country Family just some of us believe that and do not compromise about any of them.

Good racing everywhere today and see if i can not get 3 to fade up somewhere.

Congrats on your Place payoff as well for $800 forgot to mention that well bet. Like APH i ended up down on the day a very small amount.
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Old 05-12-2018, 11:42 AM   #11525
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
TA i do not know a lot who play at Mountaineer even with the added dime i believe it is where bridge jumpers go to die because of it i am told.

JK was just giving you chit your statement it reminded me of the part in Austin Powers about the Dutch...GCF God Country Family just some of us believe that and do not compromise about any of them.

Good racing everywhere today and see if i can not get 3 to fade up somewhere.

Congrats on your Place payoff as well for $800 forgot to mention that well bet. Like APH i ended up down on the day a very small amount.
Yea my post was pretty bad. I just think its kinda lame when people thank god. Winstar puts a lot of $ into horseracing. They should win the derby based on the money they spend on horses.

I have other things to say regarding this topic but don't want to ruffle any feathers. Going to fade justify in the belmont.

I really hope audible and other top horses run in the belmont. I feel it will be a great betting race if justify is going for the TC. Preakness will be a walk over if good magic doesn't run.

I will lose a lot of respect for Chad Brown if he doesn't run good magic in the preakness. The horse I feel is almost a lock for 2nd and a lot of money in these races. Why not just race in the preakness, skip the belmont, and then prep for the summer with a run at toga or the haskell to prep for the travers. I feel skipping the preakness is a terrible move especially since he said hes not running the belmont. I think good magic could hook justify in the preakness if justify has a poor trip or different tactics are taken by GM (maybe).

I do think justify is great though. I kinda laugh at people saying he got a perfect trip in the derby. I feel winning in the slop like he did was impressive and the horse is solid. I do think it will be tough to win the belmont for him though against new shooters who have a break while he raced the KD and preakness. 3 races in 5 weeks is a really terrible schedule.
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