Naw just a riff him being a May 9th foal, so technically. With that pedigree, whatever he does from here he will get his chance in the shed. I'm not as put off by his stretch runs, just a kid be bopping around a little cause nobody had anything for him yet. I think he will dig in if it goes down like that, but could be wrong there.
Good Magic looked super polished this morning, nice work. Ortiz hmm.

Im not saying your wrong and i right or vise versa but who is MICK RUIZ and who is TODD PLETCHER to javier?
I think maybe after he couldnt catch Justify ON that DAY, maybe he felt all mounts he would be on would all BE RunniNg for 2nd & he might as well stick witn his bread and butter.

Im reading alot of Justify and like i said i felt all slow times but they say the figures are alot bettet than others.

I really have liked THE MOON for 2 preps and think he can get over drifting. If its the noise, maybe cotton in the ears. If its a maturity thing hopefully the extra month has helped, that move is very nice though.
There was slop during training which isnt good for west coast horses who don't train over it

FLORENTS mount is out. Hope he picks one up.
Is bodiemiester in this years race? Whos Ill have Another?
Maybe theres slop, whos ORB???
Or is the Todd Squad on the B2B
Can the young NEXt Bobby Frankel break the shawdow for good with the MajoR WIN (chad brown)

Whats im saying is lets get to Derby Week Already

Going to try and make this more fair this year for you ladies of the HRT and Louisville and put the Derby Wife invitation out now felt horrible last year turning so many women away because i posted the offer so late and with the added time i will be able to set up a rotation so none of you ladies feel left out.

God broke the mold when he made me fellas...he had to...he knew every woman would want one for their own

Divisidero 3 peat?
Rain forecast.

Bout damn time Derby Week got here and again i am not looking past Oaks day either which i think is going to be a sob of a race. Saw the same as you on weather and not sure but think your a left sider too prickly and weather report only as good as day of because it changes so fast here in the midwest.

I do not know fellas but just can not get MM out of my top spot right now by my eye. Saw the weave myself obv not too concerned really and i was surprised to hear Plonk have the same opinion i did on him after last out is reminded him of Curlin and i almost wrote that but just wrote it off as it was also Oaklawn so probably why i had the initial thought BUT he got same age PP's lined them up and were similar. Audible as well be my B right now i just at this point am not on Justify can not put my finger on it but just my eye is not as sold to him as others.

Only spoke to CB a few times ever she was always very down to earth made her laugh pretty good 1 night too but be damned i was missing the KYD she did not get credentialed...Churchill just has an unique ability to do the dumb at a higher percentage than most.

OK back to the string all the women have signed the waivers...The limp will be temporary but that smile they have may last forever

Ok yes the week is here. First off, CB recieved her passes to work. Thats why i shy away from churchill when its not derby weekend.
Honcho your horses stock for some reason is falling (price is rising, good for all MM backers) guess that fading stand side is following him cuz hes not ranked 6tb in combined early picks (not 1 single first place vote)
As of now with rain friday good weather saturday and chad browns horse gaining traction the shipper looking better and better to me. Hes won on different surfeces, traveled around the globe with no problems. That Really stands out to me. ( i believe the 2nd place finsher in that race is running in the OAkS under roberto berfertos care). I still like MM.

Just seen a stat that said in last 14 years any horse to hit the board in the Wood M. Race hasnt hit the board in the derby. Good stat but then again i rarely play a horse from that weak race.

Lines drawn thru every one of those in the past (U Mo aside). This year's race looked sharp and VR reached nicely at the end without much asking. Was a sharp race.
Sassy S may like it sloppy.

I'm going to fade justify also but I will probably single him up top on a trifecta for backup. I think I might play a tri with justify up top and bolt in other 2 spots as a single with a bunch in the final spot. If california is really hot, maybe bolt and justify both finish in top 3 i think.

I like good magic.... feel his 3rd off layoff could be huge + pace looks favorable. I honestly feel justify will be tested on the front end for the first time and he will falter at the end.

Audible is my #1 but this derby is wide open. I don't have a strong opinion. I might throw some money on my boy jack also hoping for a suicidal pace. I feel audible benefits from a fast pace and can rate well. Also my boy jack really could roll down lane if he somehow gets perfect trip and they go fast like i assume they will.

I assume 1/2 will be around 46 and change. I feel promises fulfilled will go on a suicide mission and will probably hurt most front end horses.

Oaks- I like midnight bisou/ monomy girl based on visuals from last 2. I would prolly play midnight bisou as my #1 especially if she goes off as 2nd choice bc money mike + post is a little better than monomy girl. I have to look at pps but my miss lilly and rayya (baffert horse + 2nd to mendelsohn in dubai) both look like solid choices also.

The Oaks draw is out, looks pretty bad for the favorites. Monomoy Girl drew the far outside post and Midnight Bisou drew the 10. In this race, I think I'm gonna throw the two of them out and look to play an tri that will pay big if I hit it. The favorites at the Oaks haven't won for some time it seems like every year we get a huge buildup for one of the favs and then they get smoked. That being said I'm gonna box 2,13/2,4,5,10,13/2,4,5,10,13 playing it for a buck costs 24. If we can hit the right horses could pay a dime. BOL to all hope you sweep your boards. I'll be back with Derby picks.

Also, do any of you guys like any podcasts for the ponies? I keep trying to find good ones but can't seem to. Cheers, MP.

I agree prickly VR is a runner and JV picked wise here i believe also and would again agree with JK until this year again i just have to trust my eye and VR finished up very well i thought in the Wood.

M_P check out Steve Byk he is on 9am -12pm est M-F easy enough to tune out noise and get to the white meat always good guest on the show and this week is a solid week to check it out.

I went back and watched all the Derby prep races and came away thinking Audible will be my must use horse. His performances in the Florida Derby and the Holy Bull were very impressive. In both races, he shows tactical speed but different kinds. In the FD, he gets stuck behind horses and bounces wide to make a move from 6th to 1st in route to winning by 5 lengths. In the Holy Bull, he stalks the pace and waits for it to fall apart after the far turn and when confronted he opens up a big lead and cruises to the win. He may even appreciate the stretch out to a mile and a quarter. The draw he got is fine and shouldn't beat him. I'm worried with the connections that he's gonna take a ton of money, but if he goes off anywhere close to 8-1 I'm gonna play him big. BOL to all and can't wait to hear what you guys think. Love Triple Crown season.

I came away from watching the preps thinking the same of Storm Cats as going in.

What can you say the draw did not really crush anybody outside FF probably the deuce and FDB does his best foot at the end so that is not a negative Justify getting the #7 i do not see being problematic really with a clean break. So many right answers here and i feel like i did a couple years back when i was all over Dortmund and i pretty much knew AP was the freak BUT bullheaded at times. After the draw my gut tells me #5 Audible and he does not fail the eye test as MP also mentioned BUT MM just had that look about him far turn Oaklawn like Lets get it on and was all elbows and aholes it looked with a little shimmy to boot. What does his shimmy mean now back to back? Hell i do not know and as i have posted prior it may not matter if he gets in position come far turn. I will give my A selection race day may have to go with some peyote buttons and cough syrup and hope the vision comes with a number 1-20 because this year is a whacker.

For props i would be all over Audible 8-1 over B'DO at the same 8-1 ML. If i can get that matchup i am hammering it heavy as they let me.

Not letting Mott's horse beat me and wrote after Florida Derby i thought with some maturing and education this horse had a look about him. So i will give the horses i know will be on my multi's they are...Magnum Moon,Audible,Hofberg,Mendelssohn,Justify (who looked like a BEAST off the van). Only variable left really is weather and then the post physicality observations where i am looking for negatives because they all should be looking right but who looks MORE right.

I have to agree with Honcho that MM is visually impressive. Kinda thought he might be the play, but worry about how fast he actually is and the maturity level. Really thought Id be taking a stand against Justify and the one shipping West; but they very well may be the top two talents. Actually a bit skeptical on all the ones up front; will any stay? Thinking one that gets first run at the leaders may very well wear the roses. Audible, Noble Indy, VR? I know GM and BD' fit this category but I doubt BD wants 10. Everyone seems to be warming up to GM; guess if he wins, I lose. I really think this could go a variety of ways. Definitely some $ to be made. Sort of feel now is the time to get some value on VR. If he makes a good showing, that Belmont price will be steep. MM aside; I see all the Pletchers offering value.

Great choice for the jock on Bravazo. LC has brought in some shots in big spots. Wouldn't turn last out my foot. Lone Sailor will win anyway...
Yoshida and Arklow liked the track last year, step up though in a breeders cup race. The Empire brought Deauville.

I have missed all the prep races really have been out of the loop this year. I am excited for the race I have enjoyed reading the thoughts so far on this race. Keep the post coming

Went back and did some video work (and hey Mid nice to see you itt) just to give my eye one last test and to give all the runners a fair evaluation outside what i already think and i am watching the replays and no one EVER talks about Audible and the shimmy he did as well in the Florida Derby...It is there go to the replay...BUT to the other point i am watching an my opinion is confirmed with MM i just like this horse and the tracks under his belt and several look decent enough BUT who is screaming 'Look at me" on video is My Boy Jack...Watched KD in New Orleans and that move he made wide at 80 mph and then the grit and heart to finish in Lexington for the W last out was impressive and if you can convince KD of a game plan to try and get cover and position and then explode the last 2 and see if its enough this horse has that look to me...only negative if there is one is the last out may been his best out and why i am so hi on MM is i think his best is yet to come.

I am of the opinion still like APH mentioned GM wins i probably lose and a daisy if he does (or rose) CB will get one i just do not think GM is it and i know my wallet will hope i am right on this thinking also.

Getting closer fellas

Post positions are out. Time wise from preps i see noble indy from far out break all the way accross. Thats gonna hamper some. Mendelssohn in the corner is a great spot to break with no outside problem and his early speed will put him in a great spot. If u want to win this race u need I repeat NEED a top 3 break ( last year 1st was top 3. 3rd was top 4 ) only lookin at lee flew from behind ( i see this spot for a audible, bolt d oro, hoffburg or my boy jack) not good for bolt because he breaks a tad slow.

I still feel like Mendelssohn justify ( half brothers i might add) will be up front. ( i am now hearing the scat daddys not made for 1 1/4) i believe this might hold weight but not for both, one will submit the other. The thing that MM has in his favor is his blood line. From a proven sire. Think roberto said justify will fly the Winstar silks which is always good luck. Then keith D. Says justify looks too big, carrying to much weight. For now i still feel Mendelssohn or justify will battle one will hold one will fall to 3rd 4th. If they both stay im hitting alot of trifectas.
Its very sad that Joel Rosario dont have a mount. Owners should be begging to have him ride their mounts. Mark my words. ROSario min 2 wins each day maybe 3 on one of them to make up and show them whos. Top rider theyre missing out on

If its no slop saturday i think the 3 top byers can go wire to wire like AP FL and Dort did. ( MM, JUSTIFY AND Mendelssohn

Honcho, agree on my boy jack. His race he finished 3rd, kd took him so damn wide on final turn.... horse def wins if he somehow gets a rail trip on final corner. I think in derby, kd should just do whatever he can and take a chance at the rail. He can’t win derby going so wide.

Agree on audible also. He danced out a little in the fl derby which is meh. Still think at 8-1, he’s a solid bet. If he loses, I won’t feel bad at 8-1.

I’m excited for the oaks. Think I might play a trifecta with or barely using monomu girl. I feel the pace is going to be really quick and will favor midnight bisou and closers. Think tri could pay well if we don’t get monomy girl in top 3.

I'm not sure I'll be on here tomorrow so I just wanted to post my thoughts on the Oaks. I think that Monomoy Girl is too good of a horse to not hit the board. She has 3 starts and 2 wins at Churchill which I love, she also ran well in her last two and I think she's must use. I am probably gonna play a few exactas singling her on top and to place. I am also gonna take a stand against Midnight Bisou and if she beats me so be it. I am going to use Chocolate Martini, Wonder Gadot, and My Miss Lily in the exacta w Monomoy Girl. So plays for me are 14/4,5,11 and 4,5,11/14 and I may get a little jiggy and box 4,5,11 but we'll see how I do on the undercard. BOL to all, can't wait for Saturday.