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Old 04-01-2018, 11:22 AM   #11451
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Went 5/6 uggg Romans horse think name was Coach Rocks was best TCP i think is a legit 1 turn 7f to mile but LS knew what he was on crossing the line.

Audible was a powerhouse in that field and going to have a lot of people yelling Omaha Omaha come the first Saturday in May for sure. I think that Mott horse is getting stronger and smarter myself and like this horses overall talent and chasing on for place was also impressive imo.

Off the top of my head i think it was a 34-1 on the Downhill green to start SA yesterday and then a AK 1ster who hits going off memory i think at like 7% on the turf 1st out for RE @ 24-1 had to make some DD's players happy.
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Old 04-01-2018, 02:49 PM   #11452
Toadman15241
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Brag: After 132 race handicapping contest, I finished first out of 1995 entries.

Beat: Was a free contest.

Variance: Track added a $2500 prize for first place.
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Old 04-01-2018, 04:31 PM   #11453
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Good try Honcho. All legs that don't produce prices always spell Doom and unwind tix. I almost don't even have to keep watching when it happens to me. Pitino rocks...
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Old 04-02-2018, 11:13 AM   #11454
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Thanks prickly and i knew once JK quoted my play i was drawing dead Just kiddin JK appreciate it and it was the play BUT i was wrong on a single who ran 2nd and all it took. Did better remembering my prior notes on prices coming down the hill at SA so it was a short lived set back.

Toad there is no beat there man congrats on the win! Play Free ones myself and most of us do to try different styles against larger fields in hope and prep for the bigger picture an NHC spot where you will meet a field that size and may draw on some exp from these tournys to help....what i tell myself anyways BUT probably more that horse players just like to compete period. We already know we are easily entertained i mean we Yell Go Fast!! Now Left!! Yes yes!! Now left again!!! Ok now fast as you can Go Go!!! Sometimes we just yell turn left 1 time. Easily entertained are horse players
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Old 04-03-2018, 09:45 PM   #11455
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman15241 View Post
Brag: After 132 race handicapping contest, I finished first out of 1995 entries.

Beat: Was a free contest.

Variance: Track added a $2500 prize for first place.
Congratulations! 132 horse races and 1995 entries it is definitely a display of skill.
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Old 04-04-2018, 08:28 PM   #11456
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
Went 5/6 uggg Romans horse think name was Coach Rocks was best TCP i think is a legit 1 turn 7f to mile but LS knew what he was on crossing the line.

Audible was a powerhouse in that field and going to have a lot of people yelling Omaha Omaha come the first Saturday in May for sure. I think that Mott horse is getting stronger and smarter myself and like this horses overall talent and chasing on for place was also impressive imo.

Off the top of my head i think it was a 34-1 on the Downhill green to start SA yesterday and then a AK 1ster who hits going off memory i think at like 7% on the turf 1st out for RE @ 24-1 had to make some DD's players happy.
Think audible wins the derby. Still a few good preps but if he gets clean trip, I feel he wins. Only threats I see are top 2 from California and/or maybe good magic or Keeneland winner this weekend if they romp.

I plan to fade good Magic and bolt d’oro this weekend. Feel both prolly win when I say this but I like flameaway and justify a lot. Flameaway at 6/1 ml and a winner in pretty damn impressive fashion already this year makes me like this horse at a price.
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Old 04-05-2018, 09:42 AM   #11457
colt45ss
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

don't anoint audible just yet (despite the gaudy Florida Derby Derby winner stats)
justify gets to strut his stuff out west and this colt could be a monsta
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Old 04-05-2018, 11:59 AM   #11458
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Yeah just run the freaking play we sent in. Bounce. Well if they go twenty one and change in the Derby. That kinda sums it up in a points system world. Not getting any cheap speed or goof ball rides with all accomplished horses making up the entire field.
Bob B is calling Justify the second coming of AP. Apollo rolls his eyes.
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Old 04-07-2018, 08:42 PM   #11459
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Yeah just run the freaking play we sent in. Bounce. Well if they go twenty one and change in the Derby. That kinda sums it up in a points system world. Not getting any cheap speed or goof ball rides with all accomplished horses making up the entire field.
Bob B is calling Justify the second coming of AP. Apollo rolls his eyes.
Apollo may be keeping 1 eye open anyways Nice run today and B'DO showed heart BUT is not a 1 1/4 horse. This years KY Oaks is going to be crazy! The Derby as well. GM i mean ya nice i just not seeing it best i know to explain. Best so far by my eye has been that horse oversees Mendalsomethin then Audible, Justify, Magnum Moon. The calendar is getting short on them to separate and see who matures most in this next month.
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Old 04-07-2018, 09:22 PM   #11460
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

The oaks and derby are going to be great this year. Midnight bisou vs monhony girl is going to be insane. I’m leaning midnight bisou due to how visually impressive her races are.

The derby is going to be interesting. I feel a lot of parity and a few horses can win. However I still feel audible is the play. Horse can press the pace or rate if pace is super hot. By far the best races have been won by audible. Mendelson... I’m not sure about but I’ll pass on a euro. I can’t wait for all the sucker euros to bet him heavily. Euro horses almost always perform poorly in the derby. Bolt is overrated, good magic was a better 2 year old I feel, and justify is a solid horse but really didn’t look great for such a slow pace for the sa derby. I def feel there are a lot of solid contenders but audible looks like best to me. Johnny v/ pletcher for 2nd derby in a row imo.
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Old 04-08-2018, 10:39 AM   #11461
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

What do you guys think about mike smith? I think hes a great jockey and like when hes on a horse i bet. However I feel he might be dirtiest jockey ever. I almost never see other jocks doing what he does. Pushing out justify and making bolt d'oro go to inside seemed quite dirty to me.

Great jockey in my opinion and def pushes the boundaries more than other jockeys. I hate losing to him though.In a few instances where I've had other horses against him, I feel he always will angle out a tiring horse toward a rail horse making ground on him in the stretch to spook horse. I just find it odd that I almost never see other top jocks do this. Just wondering if other people notice this or no?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9MEOck747Q

See example above. I hate to say it but its so dirty. There is no reason to put your horse right next to other horse to spook horse. I think its going to be funny when horse takes a bad step sometime and he gets knocked off horse doing this dirty riding.
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Old 04-09-2018, 07:30 PM   #11462
ProfessorEd
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman15241 View Post
Brag: After 132 race handicapping contest, I finished first out of 1995 entries.

Beat: Was a free contest.

Variance: Track added a $2500 prize for first place.
Congrats! So you made $2,500? How many people actually did all 132 races? Where was this?
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Old 04-09-2018, 09:34 PM   #11463
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Forty dime punch brought the world at SA, Sunday. Uh wow I guess. How the heck did that get past the other players with Ax man and Hopper in the sequence?
I don't think of Mike Smith as dirty per se. Well like Kent D slams the barn door super hard when he's on one and has the chance. Rajiv has called out as rough and rough for no reason. $Mike is fierce pinning another to the rail down to like half of a path. He does move over to bring two eyeballs close. Not sure about other moves, he does come across some noses.
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Old 04-10-2018, 08:48 PM   #11464
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman15241 View Post
Brag: After 132 race handicapping contest, I finished first out of 1995 entries.

Beat: Was a free contest.

Variance: Track added a $2500 prize for first place.
I read this wrong myself...I thought it was 123 racing (Derby Dollars Affiliate ADW) NOT 132 races good grief man that is mighty impressive and congrats again never heard of a tourney that long outside of the Public Capper contest starts KYD runs to BC.
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Old 04-11-2018, 04:49 PM   #11465
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

What are the thoughts on justified here? I feel he’s a fade in the derby and I hope he goes off as favorite. Prolly deserves fav status but I felt he wasn’t that insanely dominant in what I felt was a great trip and show pace in sa derby. Hard to question a baffert runner though and only 4th start.

Btw I feel if he makes derby, my boy jack is a play at a big number. His last race, def should have won if he got a better trip and doesn’t go so damn wide on final turn. I feel this horse could shock at the derby if pace is snappy and he somehow gets a dream trip on final corner. I feel it’s unlikely but worjrb a shot at 25-1 or higher.

I currently have audible/ my boy jack in future bets. I honestly think audible will be my big play. Will prolly single him in tris up top and as single of in exotics. Post draw is going to be huge though.
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Old 04-13-2018, 08:25 PM   #11466
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Deeper track that day for Justified, added conditioning for him? Not sure, he's a big dude though. MM tomorrow may be even more of a freak, track isn't dry also. Non 2 year old has sure been real. Points system playing out over time though and these could be really good.
JJ gets Audible not Johnie V? JV sure put the brakes on him seeing the speed run off.
Do we have the names of everyone that said Never Again with the Emirates winner?
Getting good.
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Old 04-14-2018, 07:26 PM   #11467
aphbig1371
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by prickly00 View Post
Deeper track that day for Justified, added conditioning for him? Not sure, he's a big dude though. MM tomorrow may be even more of a freak, track isn't dry also. Non 2 year old has sure been real. Points system playing out over time though and these could be really good.
JJ gets Audible not Johnie V? JV sure put the brakes on him seeing the speed run off.
Do we have the names of everyone that said Never Again with the Emirates winner?
Getting good.
Thought I heard that Johnny V made the choice to ride Vino Rosso. Anyone know this for sure?
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Old 04-14-2018, 08:49 PM   #11468
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Thought I heard that Johnny V made the choice to ride Vino Rosso. Anyone know this for sure?
That is a fact. TP said on the Byk show this week believe was last hour of show he gave choice to JV and he took VR.

MM was forget about it good today and now another track under his belt.
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Old 04-15-2018, 10:19 AM   #11469
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I think Magnum moon is a toss in the derby. Great past 2 races but he has veered out 2 races in a row. I feel bad for whoever he impacts in the derby during the stretch run.

I feel audible and justify are my top 2 for the derby. Will fade mendelsohn as he will get a ton of uk money and prolly throw in the standard euro clunker at the derby. Post draw is going to be huge. Would not like my top 2 as much if they get a 15-20 post.

Think this derby is going to be really good. I feel honestly probably 5-6 have solid shots to win so there actually is some parity. Any thoughts on prices horses will pay

I'll take a stab and say

justify 7/2
mendelsohn 9/2
audlbe 6-1
magnum moon 8-1

On tvg, they were saying justify 2-1 or 5/2. I can't see a horse going off lower than 3-1. Seems like the dominant favorites recently haven't went off too short in the derby.
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Old 04-15-2018, 11:08 AM   #11470
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
I think Magnum moon is a toss in the derby. Great past 2 races but he has veered out 2 races in a row. I feel bad for whoever he impacts in the derby during the stretch run.

I feel audible and justify are my top 2 for the derby. Will fade mendelsohn as he will get a ton of uk money and prolly throw in the standard euro clunker at the derby. Post draw is going to be huge. Would not like my top 2 as much if they get a 15-20 post.

Think this derby is going to be really good. I feel honestly probably 5-6 have solid shots to win so there actually is some parity. Any thoughts on prices horses will pay

I'll take a stab and say

justify 7/2
mendelsohn 9/2
audlbe 6-1
magnum moon 8-1

On tvg, they were saying justify 2-1 or 5/2. I can't see a horse going off lower than 3-1. Seems like the dominant favorites recently haven't went off too short in the derby.
You started out right with "I think" and then "I feel" then mixed in some dumb with "On TVG they said" Trust yourself!

Try to go point to point here. Yep saw same thing MM did and jock trying to give tractor mark excuse this time BUT not going to matter if you get the same run in the KYD he can go the 1 1/4.

Your top 2 are solid and would say everyone's top 2 or a good percentage BUT i am going to fade the F out of Justify i think and if BB draws his obligatory rail then will wager more. Can he damn right will he i am betting against at this point.

TP has top 2 MM and Audible imo right now BUT have to watch Mendelsohn replay to appreciate what this horse brings talent wise and breeding to the KYD. Almost every year i am right with you with pond jumpers this year my eye tells me to not lose sight of this one.

Like your write up JK and really with the exchange btc markets out there i am sure to get what i am looking for matchup wise come KYD time.

BOL on everyones plays today i am going to go at the DRF Free tournament today all Keeneland card.
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Old 04-18-2018, 07:44 PM   #11471
sgvoak
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

hey room. hope all is good. Honcho, I hope you are taking care. 2 1/2 weeks out and I hate to say it but I don't know whos gonna win this derby. in the last 5 years its been pretty easy ( mostly because I'm from the west coast and our side has crushed). I have to look at races more but the majority of the best were ALL front runners. I know they say some can come from off the pace but we haven't seen it against other good horses. Also, we haven't seen the good ones win against each other than lose so theres a rivalry. id like to say bolt d oro could be that one but I believe Ruiz ran him more than he had to this year or didn't place him right ( seems pride had him go against both baffert horses instead of say maybe san feliepe and then sunland derby as a warm up) I HATE to take a pletcher horse ( his % is so bad but 2 of his could be the winner). I don't think the DUBIA HORSE will be hammered as much as some think. u need to remember that yes a lot of $ wil come from across the pond but the majority will be in Us and U will get 6/1 on him which is great if u like him ( A half to Beholder) I believe China Horse Club has 2 (1 on each coast) I didn't like how magnum moon ran sideways in 2 in a row but he is good and that turn of foot was nice. ALL times seemed slow to me. even santa anita. that's why I don't like Justify. what I do like is Jockeys. A jockey makes a hell of a lot of difference. this year to me that means a lot. ill be back at post draw and after some veteran trainers open their mouths to reporters about what they have seen and who they feel is a real contender. ( guys like D wayne Lucas and ROBERTO BAFERTO) TEND TO SAY ALOT WITHOUT SAYING MUCH IN THE FINAL DAYS LEADING TO THE BIG DAY
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Old Yesterday, 08:18 AM   #11472
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Hey SGV doing alright my friend always appreciate you asking hope life is catching you good also out on the west side.

These couple weeks drive me F'n nuts!!! Lets Go already!!!

Chance for NHC Members to get a NHC spot for free also this weekend

Forgot to add this was funny to me...Sister few years back gives me her KYD call gets her 3 to fade etc told her this year fav was California Chrome and she said that sounds like a type of condom...got a laugh and said i was thinking 420 strain myself...Magnum Moon has that kinda name right?
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