So I dont post a lot. Honest reason is I can read the thread on My phone but cant log in to post. Sure i could probably figure it out, but Im just that lazy. At that, this is the only thread that I actively read on 2+2. So; as the only group I care to share with, wanted to say a few things about my recent Vegas trip:

Short 4 night trip with wife. She is completely supportive of my degeneracy-so Im already a winner. Downtown 2 nights Golden Gate, 2 nights El Cortez. Went the first night to the Mirage to see Bill Maher. Great show, but I just have a really hard time tolerating the strip anymore. Post show, straight to Ping Pang Pong at Gold Coast which has eluded us for a few years. Wife loves the place, and there is a dispensary a block over. Had an idea what I wanted beforehand hoping to save time. Picked up their highest THC sativa available in a disposable vape pen & some dried mangoes (10mg per unit) about $80 all in. Mangoes were good, but really liked the pen, Hit it hard entire trip and plenty more left. Went down Monday too see a show at Smith Center and was very impressed by that whole building complex. Im super close to Chicago which is a phenomenal architectural city, but was very impressed with the Smith Center. Especially now, I love too do some local Vegas things. Great people. So i didn't even put a nickel into action until about 3 am when we finally returned to the Golden Gate. Played Boner Deluxe at he bar since its the only playable game at the quarter level they offer. $60 in and drew a royal after holding only the JOH. My first. Like the vibe at the GG and have always been treated well. Unfortunately Bonus Deluxe VP, and craps are the only games worth playing. Although, their group of dealers almost always seem to have a few that are firs timers. Kind of surprising, as i have not found this to be the case at the D. My loss was treated as a push 2x. Furthermore; wife and I were playing a couple $25 match plays and could have easily gotten away with treating them as promo chips, I just worry there might be consequences for a new dealer. Did fine on VP rest of the trip; 0-2 poker tourneys, 0-1 Bingo, maybe $50 up at craps and BJ combined. Occasionally I play $10 on the 11,14,17 at roulette. Hit the 11 on my final of 5 attempts at the ElCortez. Love the El Cortez, but their tight as hell on the BJ tables. Had an older dealer at one point. Every time I bumped my bet up, she shuffled the deck. After two times I brought it down to minimum and the process kept repeating. Gave up on it after about an hour. After the Dodgers went down 3-2, I seriously considered putting a play down at LA+250 to win the Series. Slept late on Sunday so didn't put in any NFL bets. I love playing horses in Vegas but have not even once looked at Zia Park entries, so I took a pass. I went to William Hill hoping to get that 20-1 on Bolt Doro and no such luck. 12-1 same as Wynn. Thanks for letting me ramble.

I really wanted to spend some Vegas time at BC handicapping, but that didn't happen. However; feel like I have a lot of opinions going in. For a weekend warrior, feel like I have decent knowledge on Santa Anita, but not so much Del Mar. I have always felt I would be elevating West Coast horses and trainers especially on dirt. So what are some Del Mar angles? Got Prickleys Sadler 0-24. Thanks. Other angles? Hearing a couple folks talking that front runners dont fare so well on turf?

APH thanks man enjoyed the read this morning and am glad you and the better 1/2 had a great time. Crack me up hearing you roaming the old school joints downtown. Myself i would hit the Vegas Club back in the day playing double deck bj going up a few benji's then taking 1 step out the front door an immediate left turn and boom the Glitter Gultch (think is gone) 2 beer min and it was free boobies. I did this for a few days Can not tell you how horrible my timing is sometimes because LV before legalization was stupid for smoke people so damn paranoid about it now well like you said. Only thing helps my guts.

Opening day track looked like it favored front speed but yesterday the surface played fair so i am going to keep my eye open for a bias but capping it as a fair track.

Prickly good for info no doubt hope to get more. Mad Tiger nice to see you itt as well you been banging around here BC time few years now and hope you make a buck next few days as well.

APH quit being so lazy like your opinions on racing and write ups and look forward to seeing you in some similar tournaments BOL man.

OK fellas lets make some $$ Lets have San Diego call (collect) saying no more $$ you boys from the HRT won it all go home

Violence. Creative Cause. KY Downers. Wasn't James Garfield assassinated? Is War Front the greatest to ever live? Will Mike Smith just set these guys all up, knock em down and send em packing light? Dettori will still be a rock start either way. Will Baffert, nevermind. This is one great BC GL.

Del Mar 11/3/17

1.) 6-3-2
2.) 9-11-7
3.) 10-2-9
4.) 8-6-3
5.) 3-6-1
6.) 8-10-5
7.) 6-10-2
8.) 3-9-11
9.) 8-4-6
10.) 5-8-1

Your 3 to fade on a terrific day of wagering opportunities and GL right back at ya prickly and everyone itt playing today and tomorrow.

Took some big swings yesterday and came up empty but we def not getting caught with the bat on our shoulder today either fellas.

Classic---Gunrunner...Horse top form coming into the race the right way my top choice . West Coast...Same as GR coming to the race in form and added dirt would benefit imo. Arrogate...To many damn questions and i am suppose to be a believer again off of works? Not for me i will be keying those 2 on top of all exotics.

BOL to all itt today lets cash some tickets

Who's playing today? Haven't played the ponies in a while (like 2 months) so punting away donating some money.

Very tough card I feel. Ugh will prolly play a late pick 4 but no confidence. Might single bolt d'oro and play arrogate/gun runner while going wider in other 2 races. Am I crazy.... I don't see anyone beating arrogate/ gun runner. Feel those 2 are pure class and don't trust a 3 year old in west coast. Tough to say but I feel arrogates best blows this field away and gun runner wins if arrogate is off. Tough call though bc other 2 in top 4 are solid.

The sprint has me going wtf. I feel drefong is the best but pace scenario is terrible. Feel this horse can run fast early pace and still win but like mind your biscuits possibly to pick up pieces. Meh so tough though bc I feel west coast sprinters own east coast especially on a west coast course. Roy h is another horse that could win.

Feel turf 1.5 mile before classic will be fast pace so favoring late runner. Feel highland reel is a toss kinda as amarricans are quick and hoping early pace is hot.

Horses at prices i like

Sudeios
Zelsas


I still have to cap these races hard later today. Taking advantage of the 10 dollar bet back on tvg which is super +ev promo for punters.

Def fading the Euros. This track is made for American speed horses.

Taking West Coast tonight. Field is too competitive to back one of the front-runners at 9-5.

Del Mar 11/4/17

4.) 7-13-12
5.) 3-1-6
6.) 11-14-10
7.) 9-14-6
8.) 2-6-5
9.) 8-12-5
10.) 1-11-7
11.) 12-4-9
12.) 5-8-1

Just a sob of a card but in a good way....best of the best...If Euro's do not show i burn a lot of tickets. I think UB is vulnerable...Drefong in a field with a ton of speed maybe Whitmore closes...LE in a tough field and may be best may not get the trip. Spreading but will have the 3 to fade on top.

BOL all itt great day of racing

haha this is a great point eddby. Its because its a firm turf course and they normally run on softer courses in europe correct?

This is one of the reasons i hate the breeders cup. Why do they have to have it on the west coast at speed favoring tracks. I would rather see it at churchill/ keeneland (saratoga which is a pipe dream haha). I feel west coast heavily favors west coast speed.

Think they should run this event at the fairest possible track that has a neutral bias. Idk I prolly still play euros. Yesterday proved closers can win. I'll take closers all day on turf. Too much pace in some of the turf races that are actually not sprints imo. Not saying it will be a euro closer but think it will be tough to win on the front end on turf with a big field.

Got the Balabushka just need...

Also adding Gun Runner to show so I feel less dumb if he runs away from the field.

Lighting 25 dollars on fire

Sent from my SM-G920R4 using Tapatalk

Broke it down well today i thought did not connect on anything for exotics but dutched a couple home so the weekend did not hurt too bad anyways. Saw i typed 1 as C choice in classic and should of been 11 i was NEVER on Arrogate as everyone knows. Only had GR singled in exacta there too Mid nice hit over field. War Story ran on nice at end fill out supers. Track bias today outside of GR i really take nothing going forward really.

P6 fell apart in the 5 deep 4th leg, Chad Brown was in the blind spot on a $180 play. Didn't play to the Classic winner, smart that way 4/6. Had some will pays didn't convert. Next year.

Melbourne Cup:

Marmelo: Has had the perfect preparation for this and ticks all the right boxes. Barrier and jockey are slight negatives but I've already loaded up on him and I'm not about to jump off now. Top tip.

Wall of Fire: His first-up run was a good pointer for this and his overseas form ties in nicely. Also gets in very well at the weights. Next best.

Almandin: About a month ago I was ready to call this horse a moral, but he has had a setback since, goes up 4.5kg from last year and Frankie Detorri takes over. I'm not about to say it can't win and we know he will run the trip, but history is against. Goes into all exotics.

Humidor: Outstanding run in the Cox Plate but is a big query at the trip. If he can run out a strong 3200m he will be in it up to his eyeballs, and has the Weir polish. I don't think he'll win, but class will take him a long way.

Johannes Vermeer: Another one suspect at the trip but his two Australian runs have been very good. Can win.

Of the first-up brigade, I would throw in Red Cardinal, Tiberian and Thomas Hobson as chances. Nakeeta could run well, but he may need the rain to arrive to be a winning hope. Rekindling has big wraps around it, but I suspect it might be a bit immature for this. Does get in with no weight, though.

Lots of place chances: Hartnell, Big Duke, Boom Time, Single Gaze, Amelie's Star, Libran, Ventura Storm, Who Shot the Barman. I don't think any of them are serious winning chances, though.

So, after all that, I have Marmelo on top with Wall of Fire as his biggest danger. Overseas horses are always hard to line up though, so you really just have to go on historical data, and they are the best credentialed for this.

This is always a bloody hard race to crack, but hopefully this helps somebody. Good luck!

Thanks for the rundown would love to see some more people post their Melbourne Cup analysis as I don't bet on horse racing outside of this one day a year and the thread's given me the winner two of the last three years

Going with Max Dynamite 18/1 morning line for US. Not sure what that is in the metric system.

Really? You've literally just plucked out the top 5 favorites. Do you really think that all of the top 5 favorites happen to be value?

17. Libran- If you can get odds of anything above $60, push.

Took a little bit on Johannes on a friend's tip @ $11 and given there was 5 figs on lay at that price on betfair it can't be too terrible, can get $71 on Libran so i'll throw a few bucks there too. Anyone else love any of the spots in particular?

Do you think they might be favourites for a reason? Very rare for anything over $20 to win, so the market is generally around the mark.

But regardless, did you even read my post? I put those horses at the top of my post because they are the top horses in the market. I gave my thoughts on them, which also included me saying that I don't think a couple of them will win. Then you went on to snip the rest of my post where I gave my thoughts on the rest of the field.

I also never said anything about value. I said what I think will win and why. You can do with that whatever you like, makes no difference to me if you back the fav or the rank outsider - it's your money.

Just a very odd post from you all around.

And fwiw the 2 horses I gave this thread last year were Almandin and Heartbreak City. And Marmelo was not the fav at the time I made that post, so it's not like I just tip the favourite.

Guess i'll have to add some Marmelo too, I remember I had Almandin and Heartbreak City last year because of this thread. Our of curiosity what do you think the true price is on Marmelo for the race D1iabol1cal, seems to be about the $8 range now, still value? I put a little bit on there too. I mean, I got the trifecta boxing the thread's six picks last year, if i'm going to gamble may as well try that again once enough people have posted, from your post it seems like you supplied 2 of the 3 I picked last year.

$8 is probably unders but it is the deserving favourite imo. Probably should be more around the $10-11 mark, but I'm not surprised at all that they've come for it.

D1ab had the excellent write up last year i mentioned in an earlier post this week fwiw.

OK give you what i see by pp's and video and barriers...Since i am known for my 3 to fade i will give you that. A choice would be #13 Big Duke...Have to respect the horse shoe silks. B choice would be #7 Johannes Vermeer...Reason A.O'B throws his butt on this horse w/o having won beyond believe it was 2000 has to think he has the ability to do so imo. My C choice #20 Wall of Fire...Not terrible barrier i suppose horse can cover and settle has been the distance which could be important. I will add a couple who deserve a look might be the #2,#14,#21.

Gonna be a great one this year i think such a wide open event and in a beautiful country. I always enjoy the few times i get to cap and watch the OZ tracks. BOL to all itt