Tramore (IRE) 19:45
Sharps Choice
odds needed- 9/8 (2.13, +113, 47%)
odds available- from 6/4 to 2/1 on low liquidity overnight markets
stake- 2.91% (1/4 Kelly, based on available odds of 6/4)

I'm shocked Irap won the bluegrass. Horse is a maiden and couldn't win a weak sun land derby or finish top 3. Tapwrit also not finishing top 3 shocked me.

Think I need to get out of this game lol and go back to sports betting.

JK there is no getting out once your in this...Being a horseplayer is "our thing" only 1 way out

Exeter (UK) 14:50
Shantou Rock
odds needed: 1/1 (2.00, +100, 50.00%)
odds available: 6/4 (2.50, +150, 40%) (some pennies at 2.70ish on the BF exchange at 03:20 UTC)
stake: 4.16% (Kelly * 0.25)

This looks about as close to a true 50% chance that I've seen for a while and I'd be pretty confident of the edge here.
Shantou Rock's 2nd to Beyond Conceit (who ran fair in the Supreme and was then a 0.5L runner up in the Sefton) followed by 2 facile wins, would be the equal of Wishful Dreaming's form and the remainder of the field has been exposed in Handicap company.
I'm looking at the horse's relatively busy season and the drying ground more as monsters under the bed rather than legitimate negs.

You write convincingly, thanks for the help.

Can't eat value and that was brutal. No one likes a bad beat story so enough about that.

Not much time to post as I'm driving and just pulled over to add this. A 70%er has popped up that's currently available at 1/1 tomorrow.
14:10 Fontwell (UK)
Red Rising.
It's Dan and Harry Skelton again and we're not best friends after today, but there you go.

Fontwell (UK) 14:10
Red Rising
odds needed: 2/5 (1.40, -250, 71%)
odds available: 5/6 (1.83, 55%)
stake: 8.5% (Kelly * 0.25)

Aqueduct 4/12/17

1.) 3-5-4
2.) 2-5-4
3.) 4-3-2
4.) 3-4-6
5.) 9-10-5
6.) 1-6-4
7.) 4-3-6
8.) 9-4-7

Looks like the green dirt course is open today at the Big A and those are your 3 to fade.

Red Rising was scratched Wednesday

At Towcester a runner has come up at 50%, assessed early by the books at 46% if anyone's interested, however I fear the value may be gone once the market matures:
Towcester (UK) 16:20
Yorgonnahearmeroar
odds needed: 2.00
odds available: 2.10 to 2.20 (generally available)
At those odds it's a small edge no vig wager. Not everyone's cup of tea but personally I have a problem dealing with losing runs so I'm looking for bets where I have 50% or more of the field covered. Even when I frame markets on larger fields I always take every overlay in the race, not just the biggest. Better money managers than me don't agree with that method and I admire them but I'm sick and tired of my degen loss chasing ways so I do what I can to limit variance.
I mainly wanted to post about a low key trainer whose horses will be running well and be overpriced the next few weeks. Shaun Harris has had a relatively barren couple of years (2015/2016). The benefit is a yard of exposed but v/well handicapped runners and being a low profile yard the market will take a bit to catch on. Even though the horses are already showing signs of form there should be some juice in the price for a while yet.
Thursday 16:40 Chelmsford.. Roy's Legacy.
Odds of around 10.00-12.00 should be available. I'd be using a "back to lay" approach for these runners. For example back pre race @10.00 and leave a lay offer @2.50 - 2.80 to go in-play. Some of these horses are going to win but just as many are going to give their running but come up short. Chelmsford City is not a great track for in-the-run players so I'd advise keeping the lay bet on the high side.
For set and forget bettors BFSP should be fine (1u win:3u place). It's not a big punting yard and the horse's price will generally hold up.

So Roy's Legacy won with a leg in the air at 12/1. Probably won too well for the trainer's liking and could well reappear n/week in another C6 under a penalty before the handicapper has his way. The price held up well on the exchange and 15.50 was available for a decent amount. The trainer doesn't have a runner on Friday but Order Of Service is ready to go and should be out within the week. He has half a dozen others that will also be worth an interest when they appear.

Anyone been to Keeneland this season? I will be going next week and need to know the metal detector situation. Will I need to bring plastic flasks or can I get my metal ones through?

I went last spring but don't really remember.

You had me at metal detector CrockPot but went a different direction than i anticipated but think we will get along Out of alcohol ignorance here does Keeneland not carry your preferred liquid? Your going to lay everything in the pools and want a buzz on the cheap? I tell you what because i am making a call in to Jamaica,NY early to make sure they know what date it is and horses do also i will give Keeneland also a call to info desk and ask your question exactly as you presented here.

daonna like to see that finish with the leg in the air that is good info and remember your outstanding write up on MC day around Thanksgiving time i think it was.

More like they won't serve it in accordance to my date of birth, but yes I guess I'll also be gambling it all away. Funny that I'm allowed to do that without being able get so much as a drink.

Well then there is that which i would of never even considered LOL...Thinking the cat wants to bring in his glock or some chit i was intrigued even a Brian Lynch vape pen maybe....BOL and make sure to feed the pools

Aqueduct 4/14/17

1.) 4-3-5
2.) 1-6-3
3.) 4-1-5
4.) 9-4-10
5.) 4-10-1
6.) 6-1A-2
7.) 1-8-7
8.) 7-1-3

Tough Friday card at the Big A


Keeneland 4/14/17

1.) 4-1-6
2.) 8-7-1
3.) 3-1-5
4.) 5-3-10
5.) 3-2-6
6.) 9-5-6

Had first 6 capped at Keeneland for tournament play so throw 3 to fade up here as well.


NY said its good friday btw on the phone...told them we will see about that just make sure the horses know the date also please BOL all itt and their plays today and for the weekend

Not so bad a day today but missing on the 5th blew up all exotic tickets. Have a unique situation tomorrow in a tournament. I will break it down best i can how i see things and these are the spots and i will explain why i ALWAYS am looking for and ALWAYS try to exploit.

Was in a 40 person tourney and top 10 got a $35 token for a $11 entry fee. I was fortunate and won the whole thing overall BUT when it came to 6-15th spot they were all tied so the way it went down was the top 6 got $35 and then 6-15 also received $35 token being tied. Hmmm i thought and kept my eyes open for the next grift opportunity. That time is tomorrow.

Tourney is 160 players max ( i have won larger) and each player can buy 10 entries for .25 a piece $2.50 total invest. Looking at the card i am sure i can cover and out of the 10 entries have a solid chance at getting the $35 token which for $2.50 investment is a decent roi BUT this thinking would be wrong according to how they pay out. I will be playing ALL 10 entries with the same picks so WHEN i do win the tournament overall i will get paid $35 for each entrie because they all scored the same making it a $350 (knew it would be right tree fiddy ) for the same $2.50 roi. That's the play i make tomorrow.

They also have several top 4/15 $11 entry fee get $35 tokens...Now with i would guess 5 beards a piece and a crew of 50 so you could mix it up but ALWAYS make it so that several players have the same score this could be exploited with great success before they caught up. Just sayin

Stratford (UK) 17:20 (16:20 UTC)
Little Chunk
need: 1/2 (1.50, -200, 66%)
available: 9/10 (1.92 BF exchange @12:35 UTC, -111, 52%)
stake 7.45% (Kelly * 0.25)

Little Chunk touched 2.05 on the exchange shortly after I posted. Started a bit shorter.

Shaun Harris has 2 runners at Southwell tomorrow.
During the trainer's 2 year lean spell (post 10909 ) Fujin (Southwell 15:55) was keeping the wolves from the door, winning races despite the yard's form. The horse has risen 30lb in the Handicap in 18 months and tomorrow tries for 3 in a row. He's in a race no stronger than his win LTO and has handled the Fibresand in the past. I can't see any reason why he won't run well here. He front runs and will likely trade shorter than his SP in the run.
There isn't a lot to say about Mesmeric Moment (Southwell 16:30). She's a 3yo having her 5th start for the yard, the last 3 at Southwell, and on the face of it she should be 100/1. She isn't even helped by the draw (5), as the inside Stalls have been killing it here over 5f even in small fields. If there are any positives she does have the favourite drawn outside her in 6, and she has shown early pace in her 3 runs here. She also has a senior jockey on for the first time since Harris has had her. There should be a high price available pre race, so it'll be a cheap "back to lay" in the run. I'm backing the yard's runners blind the next few weeks, but follow this one at your own risk.

Malagacy in the stretch looked like me after half a dozen tall boys

Am going to Southwell today, to work as a bookie/trade in-running.

This is what the day will prob look like :

Meet staff, 3 hrs before 1st race, drive 2 hrs to track, pay £85 to bet, pay staff £100, pay £40 petrol, probably take £2k at 10% margin, to be losing slightly, and hope to win in-running. Get back about 10 hrs from start.

All the races have exposed boats, whose form I have no idea of. Will take a look at the 2 above in the paddock, but, wouldnt really know anything about them, unless they playing up etc.

Unraced decent maidens start from Friday - newbury.

Nice race i thought and the winner got everything his way really BUT did show will to get to wire 1st which is nice to see again.

I thought by my eye that CMM and i hope the owners pony up the 200k or get an investment to do so because that horse has some foot and finish to him and the gallop out after the rubbin and such was a nice indication going forward.

I always watch Ark way last few weeks going into KYD for preps and if i am wrong so be it but do not think CE is the horse.

Have SA capped will throw 3 to fade on here when changes come around.

Know your a horse player (and probably old) when you eat jelly beans year round so only damn reason you knew it was Easter is looking at DRF and wondering why no one is running today

KY Derby wise guy horse futures pool ? there should be one. Royal Mo I'd take.

I really hope they put the $ up for CMM. I used CE defensively and faded Malagasy, so not all bad. I definitely have doubts about several I anticipate will go into the gate at short prices. Never thought I'd be so interested in the New Mexico form.

Santa Anita 4/16/17

4.) 3-5-8
5.) 7-5-8
6.) 3-5-6
7.) 3-1-5
8.) 1-5-3
9.) 1-7-6

Almost forgot fellas was putting in a H2H matchup.

APH nice to see your post and MTB right 50-1 and hell this year 20 balloons a folded paper note inside each differently numbered and 1 dart...PoP and there is your KYD winner....YW

I feel the wide post and pace pressure hurt him. Don't think he's going to win derby but so much pressure early in that race and they went fast. CE sat a great trip.

Anyone see the Jenny Wiley? I had a small win bet on Dickinson. Lady Eli is a great horse but not a fan coming off the layoff and price. I'm shocked Dickinson won. Trip was odd. Thought the horse was done when lady Eli went by but the horse had a lot of fight after getting in traffic trouble.

Far away but for derby I like gunnavera, McCracken and pletchers top horse than won Florida derby. Like gunnavera and mcckracken if pace is quick and I feel pletchers that won the derby takes it if it sits behind a moderately quick pace. Who knows though. This derby has to be wide open compared to last three. No dominant horse this year.