Fairyhouse (IRE)
15:30
Art Of Security @ 33/1
Is good enough to be competitive here although the concern re today is whether the horse is being set for a Handicap at Punchestown festival. At 33's it doesn't cost a lot to find out. Regardless today's result keep on side going forward.

16:05
Invitation Only
overlay at current 11/8 (2.37 BF exchange)
need 4/6 (1.66)

Apparently Art Of Security IS being considered for the Kilashee at Punchestown so probably not winning today. Noel Meade gave Waxies Dargle a similar prep a few years ago. That horse was pulled up in this race before running well at the Festival

Ascot 15:05 (GB)
Present Man
overlay at 9/4, +225 (3.25 BF exchange)
need 1/1 (+100, 2.00, 50%)

Not sure what GG did but GP is like NY rules is it not? I have my own exp from them SOB's a few years back with my posted PK4 itt when Alpha caught Golden Ticket (apparently) i had both covered and was looking at $7800 for GT and the DH took it to around $250 i got back. The race prior i had connected on an Anthony Dutrow runner at 11-1 if i remember correct right off.

Feeling particularly wrank today so going to rub some dirt on it hope that does the damn trick and get to capping the PK6 down Miami way today i hear there might be some action that way around 3pm est today

BOL everyone chasing the Rainbow today...Don't take any chit from the little guy in the funny hat at the end of it either

gl Honcho and anyone else punting. just dont let it be some ridic controversy that effs everyone over or a $96 payout.

daonna - like the non-us stuff. mostly us in here so always like that. good stuff. best luck w/ your plays, looks like you got a good idea.

Good luck to anyone playing the rainbow 6. I handicapped the races and made a fake ticket im not betting. Probably the best bet in horseracing has got to be the mandatory payout pick 6.

I would play if i could find 2 solid singles but super hard in the sequence.

It's easy single Mongolian Sunday on Sunday.

Aintree (GB) 16:40
Moulin A Vent
overlay at 14.50 (BF exchange @05:07 UTC)
need 4.75 (21%)
kb - 3.78% (=0.25 x 15.15% of br)

This is a massive overlay. Either my market is way off or the public market has missed something.

Moulin a Vent is a NR

Like your UK coverage .. plse dont stop.

Keeneland 4/7/17

1.) 9-6-8
2.) 2-3-1
3.) 4-5-6
4.) 3-1-2
5.) 9-7-6
6.) 2-8-9
7.) 6-11-5
8.) 6-3-8
9.) 4-5-1
10.) 1-4-6

A nice as expected opening day card at Keeneland and those are your 3 to fade

Newcastle (GB) 14:05
Just Minded
overlay at 11/4 (26.66%, 3.75 BF exchange @20:10 UTC) (5/2 generally available)
need 7/5 (2.40, +140, 41.66%)
kb 4.88% (=0.25 x 19.54%)

I've penalised the 4/9 favourite Ami Desbois a fair bit more than the public which has helped shift the value to Just Minded on my market.




Hi dundalk. No probs.
Big day today (Saturday). The GN not a serious betting race for me but the better class horses might have more of an edge of late with the compressed weight method that Phil Smith has been using. I've gone through the form and I just can't find anything to be confident about though and everyone I respect puts up a good case for a different horse.
After wasting a couple of hours trying to pick the winner of what is probably a lottery I've come up with -

Perfect Candidate @ 60.00 (BF exchange), 50/1 general
The Last Samurai @ 24.00 (BF exchange), 16/1 general

Do you have anything for the race?

Anyone excited for tomorrow and kd derby preps? I'm super excited for the wood and bluegrass.

Thoughts: In the bluegrass, I like tapwrit a lot. Horse is in great form and will be close to a super slow pace in a small field. Mccraken is best horse but this race doesn't set up well for him. No pace and he still coming off a slight layoff. I feel tapwrit got a horrible trip in the Sam f Davis and prolly wins if he doesn't get stuck behind horses tailing off late in race. Horse had to angle out and slow down late to find room to run in the stretch and you can tell he's gainin on mccraken. If tapwrit gets to full steam off turn, McCracken isn't getting by unless the fractions are suicidal. Mccraken is going to get a favorable set up in the derby and I feel a loss here is kinda good for his odds kd day. I feel practical joke is a great horse however more suited to a mile. I think he was up
To run in his last and tailed off at 8.5 furlongs which is a bad sign.

Wood- I'm going cloud computing. I feel a duel is set up for Irish war cry and battalion runner. Cloud computing gets a great irad Ortiz on him.... he will
Sit behind pace and make a strong move off the turn.

The sa derby Is extremely tough imo. I feel the battert runner that gets mike smith is my pick. Mike smith leaving other baffert horse is a strong sign imo. Illiad is most likely winner but will play a better price if we get it. All chalk here but not really seeing any favorable long shots in these races unless you go
Wild shot in the bluegrass hoping for super slow fractions.

Looked at the PP's again and made sure it said 4/7/17 Keeneland DRF horses did not know the date Keeneland and Toga i am feast or famine no doubt.

Do not take this as a negative JK and it is not because i am a PJ backer atm i change my mind as my eye tells me but your statement of PJ is better suited to a mile is exactly as i hear EVERYONE say about this horse besides CB...If that is what your eye tells you and what you feel about the horse yourself be it pedigree or whatever that is fine but i would say trust your eye and gut capping etc and things you see and feel about a horse over what you hear.

That said i think Tapwrit takes it and have no feel or expectations on McCracken for same reasons you have mentioned little hiccup in training what have ya and by my eye so far McCracken's performance outshined Tapwit's but i do not like hiccups.

Tournaments tomorrow BOL on everyones plays itt.

What is the commission overseas on BF exchange btw?

Am not currently in the Uk, but, if I was, I would be backing the 1st 6 or so in the betting each way, and just walk away. The place terms (in the betting shops) make the bets, +ev, as I am sure u know.

I am mainly a cricket trader, but, to add variety, work the on the UK racecourses, from next week, for the next 6 mths.

I am a "paddock judge", of mainly unraced 2 yr olds, generally laying 20/1 chances, for 1 point win, and 2 points place (betfair).

These selections prob wont help the USA audience, but, will try post, 15 mins before each race, as I make up my mind. There are only 1-2 maidens a day, so, its normally not more than 1-2 lays a day.

Newcastle (GB) 14:05
Just Minded
overlay at 11/4 (26.66%, 3.75 BF exchange @20:10 UTC) (5/2 generally available)
need 7/5 (2.40, +140, 41.66%)
kb 4.88% (=0.25 x 19.54%)

Can u just explain what your stats mean.

I understand 7/5, is 14/10, +140 etc, but what is kb ?

Thx

kb is just my abbreviation for the Kelly criterion (short for Kelly bet as I use the initials kc for something else). So 0.25 x 19.54% is a quarter of the optimal Kelly, where 19.54% of bankroll would be the full Kelly stake, which is obviously way too high to use for perceived edges in sports.

I'd be very interested in paddock reports of unraced 2yo's from someone who knows what they're looking at so please do report in when you can.

I hate missing race days like today because i work most every saturday. Good luck to all

lol 3yr olds. they are slow and green.

i made 170 in wagers and profited 17.75 today. im not saying that is the best day ever, but yeah its a pretty good day. i am drinking cheap swill eating pretzels and watching austin powers, so yeah im doing okay

Alotta Fagina seems like a nice girl, it would be ok with me if we shagged. giggity. oh behave.

this years KD is so boring that i have booked travel on it. if you pick the winner i hope you get 25+ otherwise you got your money in bad

Alotta Fagina is 50+ yrs old now jeeze why is every thing awful

Ann-Margret from The Cincinnati Kid, the greatest movie of all time, is 75. getting close to the end of the universe. Good bye.

i saw this movie 20yrs ago. Elizabeth Hurley god almighty

no Baffert in KY derby?

Looking that way prickly....Then again he may not want his name associated with this years 3 year old crop Good grief what a weird day in the Carter and Bluegrass. I had the SA Derby solid hit the exacta cold 8-3 and had it capped 8-3-9 and considering that field i am shocked i did it to and like yourself pdiggz had a decent enough day...I am still waiting on BetAmerica because their contest software crashed in middle of 2.5k Bluegrass game and i think i finished in top 5 out of 69 and then earlier took 5th out of 117 in a mega Q so was seeing the ball well and laying off the yellow hammer early in the count.

Have not watched replays yet but thought PJ looked well enough do not understand that early position gas peddle move by JR then cruising speed again then gas at end but there was no catching Irap because that horse was gone!

McCracken did not look the same horse but put in a fair enough effort not sure what excuse Tapwrit has have not watched replays or read anywhere yet.

So who are the top 3 going into KYD? for me by my eye right now it is and not in any order here PJ,Irish War Cry (who won easy) McCracken. Tough year and since i have been going at this weirdest year yet going into KYD.

Never saw that CK movie pdiggz i have not watched TV in 10 years now but having an eye for the fillies we do share...Wine women or gambling and being a horrible drinker (so i do not) i have 2/3 of the 3 anyways

Big free NHC contest today so i have to get to capping and BOL to all itt in it and if i recall correct the threads own APH did well last year in this contest.