Danzig candy has never broke outside of the other speed in his races. He never has had a stalking type race to try.

I still see DC heading to the front. It is the only way he can win. That may set up a hot pace with Outwork & Nyquist following behind. I see Gunrunner sitting on the rail (where he has been comfortable) stalking off of the pace in turn one.

Not a fan of Nyquist in this scenario. He's inside the early speed and will have to either jump to the front or could get trapped inside. Either way it will be a tougher trip than the BC.

Now the hard part. There are going to be 10 horses coming at the end. 8 of them will probably get jammed up somewhere. It's the one with the cleanest trip who could win this race.

Love the post position for gun runner. Think his post draw was by far best and he has solid shot to win. The 3 for creator seems pretty bad. Guess he is guaranteed a rail positin around the track but is going to have to go super wide down the stretch. Don't think deep closer will win even tho I'm sure the pace will
Be fast especially with dc to outside gunning for lead im Sure.

Also why no love for Mohaymen? This horse beat fellowship by 4-5 lengths (while being eased at end) and then loses to him by 3-4 on the day he gets stomped by Nyquist. I feel it's so blantantly obvious the wet track and horrible trip ruined his fl derby.

The middle of the track at Gulfstream can be a terrible place to be when the track is drying out. I have seen that firsthand...so drawing a line through that race is possible. It is funny that such a highly touted horse could become nothing more than a wise guy horse in the derby.

Saturday in Louisville: Looking good. A warm day. Highs in the low 80s. There is a slight chance of a shower or thundershower by mid-afternoon.

Yes Desormeaux is a hall of fame jockey..hopefully he'll stay away from the *Booze* b4 the race.

" If Nyquist runs with him ( Exaggerator ), that would make for a great battle at the far turn and stretch"

what the hell is that suppose to mean? ( If Nyquist runs with him )

I don't look for Exaggerator to b head and head with Nyquist approaching the far turn. maybe in the stretch but not the far turn.

*Kick Out The Jams*

For DC to win he needs to be on the lead (Imo ) therefore the jock needs to pop the gate and clear the field b4 going into the first turn.

I don't have a problem with Nyquist drawing the 13 hole as some do

Gun Runner drew very good but is he fast enough to win?

*Kick Out The Jams*

which horse are you referring to here?

Oscar Nominated?

The Supplemental is Oscar Nominated.

Loverboy, Danzing Candy has 5 lifetime starts, and every start he was inside the other speed horses in the race which pretty much forced him to use his speed for position. All I'm saying is, we don't know if he can run a stalking type race because he has never been in a situation where he had to. I think you are making some false assumptions about his abilities if you think he can only run on the lead. Sure, we know he can, but the 20 post is what it is. I think he pretty much HAS to try running a tactical race on Saturday. If I owned, trained, or rode him that would be my preference, and hope that he has the ability to rate.

From the Louisville Courier-Journal fwiw...

"Mike Smith told Sise the horse didn't like the surface."

I know the horse is breaking from downtown Lexington

BUT

You think his connections r saying well we got pp 20 so even though it's the DERBY lets try something new with the horse *Lets See If He Will Rate*

Well, stranger things have happened so time will tell

btw, the last I bet a derby horse from pp 20 was Sidney's Candy


*Kick Out The Jams*

Which horses have only 2 starts this year?

Gun Runner
Nyquist
Brody's Cause
Lani

Only ~ 5% of Derby winners have had less than 3 starts as a 3-yo.

Some interesting quotes here.

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2016/...by-draw-quotes

I've got some love for Mohaymen especially if he goes off at 10-1 or better. That FL derby trip looked bad the whole way to my eyes. Then again asking for a better trip in a 20 horse field is also probably asking a lot. I just think Mohaymen has the talent to bounce back. Creator and Destin I think will be the other 2 I use to bet against Nyquist.

I feel very strong tomorrow going against Rachel and catheryn sofia (top 2 choices) sofia showed she is a one turn horse and unless she has a complete 180 turn around even with a great jock I think shes just not this distance type (not blood lines but what she has shown) Rachel has lost her last 2 out. first she got routed by songbird in the juvi but was 2nd so she seen her right in front of her. after a layoff she had a hard fought race and again no win. a trainers job and its always said is to but the horse in the best possible place to win. that's why they travel to win by lengths to get the confidence back but this race has merit for the connections so shes here and I just think its gonna be tough on her. I will use in the oaks derby double and or pk 3 4 but win and exacta tri for the race sorry but neither of them in top spot. I feel land over sea (will be bet down a click or 2) weep no more go Maggie go and taxable are great odds . land over sea if I had to pick 1 13/13 purple and white oaks derby double. lets see. gl to all

I'm wheeling go Maggie go and her GP Oaks contender buddy Paola Queen to the KY derby field.

My Derby will be make or break depending on how Outwork and Nyquist perform. Like everyone else, I believe both will be positioned well turning for home. That final furlong will be the moment of truth. Regardless of getting the distance; I think these Uncle Moe horses have a great future. Professional and want to win. Think Outworks breeding has plenty of stamina. Loading up the exotics with the Arkansas Derby runners, DC, and Majesto.

Ill take Land Over Sea. Will box with Mokat & Lewis Bay.

Oaks day looks pretty formful. Must have a kick in the nuts on the way. Sat has a few price chances.

just looked at pps and times all for what everyone ran on fast dirt. it was 1 1/16. others were synth only some ran 1 1/8 and times are kinda close but ive looked through the last 2 pages and nobody has said a word about the weight. some of these closers did run but were down 4 6 lbs than others and now willhave to put that on. nyquist only adding 2 to 4 from last 4 races. all first Oscar nominated goodbut all grass. mor spirit last in slop bad but always hits the board 2 /4 lbs only. creator in the money 6 ina row but adding 10 lbs to sum toss mo tom last I see why people like him but hes 4 post so from inside gonna have to use extra engery to move wide for no trouble not good. gun runner good last 2 but slower but extra weight moving better. brodys cause and my man sam both not adding much and good late runners . now I have to ask this which do u throw out with excuess and which is just bad? going from dirt to slop or dirt to synth? more work

guess its all blabbing but take weight into consideration.

Since 1992 ( 24 derbys ) only two horses have won ( 8% ) going up more than 7 pounds from their last race.

This year u have

Creator +8

Whitmore +8

*Kick Out The Jams*

Loverboy. Thank u very much for that stat. I waz all over the place trying to get the words out but this will help others understand what i was trying to say. And i was trying to say it about those 2 if u read threw the words lol and giving more praise towards sudenbreakingnews.

Churchill Downs 5/6/16 Oaks Day

1.) 7-9-1
2.) 9-1-8
3.) 5-4-1
4.) 7-1-8
5.) 3-8-2

6.) 2-7-5
7.) 5-8-6
8.) 7-11-1
9.) 4-5-9
10.) 1-10-8
11.) 2-3-12

Lots of spots today to make some $$

BOL to all itt and their plays today and those as always are the 3 to fade

Lets get after it fellas!