Good stuff. Thanks. Kind of thinking that was the big one for Exaggerator. Maybe the Preakness or Belmont.

How about this training regiment that DO has him on? Definitely seems a bit unorthodox but they also seem very confident in their approach. Ill Have Another was my first Derby winner-sucked me into the game. At this point I am undecided between Nyquist and Gun Runner as most likely winners. Trying to rule out exaggerator as I feel he is more trip dependent. I seem to have a contrarian opinion about Outwork among horse players. Slow Wood, photo with maiden, etc. All i know is he goes and stays. Looking at Pedigrees; I think a case can be made that Outwork may prefer distance more than any of the other Uncle Mo horses. Also believe that Trojan Nation might end up being a legit racehorse. Unfortunately, a contrary opinion in this particular race doesnt matter much; plent of casual $ will go on the Pletcher Wood winner. My big price play in exotics will be Majesto.

You don't say....Had not laughed that hard in awhile

Doing well by physicality today so not played anything rolling

I dont really do Twitter, so I dont know who puts out good stuff. Honcho had recently mentioned Gabby Gaudet. She is one that often has some solid angles, nobody else is talking about. Horseman background and solid handicapper. Im not sure if she has any roll to play in publicly looking at this Derby field. I intend to find out. If so; it will be her opinion I look for terms of horses physical appearance in the Paddock etc. If I find something i will post in the thread.

make sure u ex box 5 ex derby winning jockeys for 20

odd question i have, just found this as the best place to ask 2p2.

So my dad has bet on horses for a long time. Many years. I'm just wondering how profitable this industry is since I know nothing about horse races. I'm sure most people here are good and spend tons of time on figuring out which bet to make so I'm not wondering if it's possible to be good at, but I'm just curious, is my dad, not dumb but not a genius, who mainly just reads that popular horse raising form (I think the Daily Racing Form) and makes a few bets likely to be good enough to beat the game here?

ty, just curious about this industry since I know nothing about it. And I'm trying to make sense of my dad, heh

If it's something he enjoys doing, why don't you talk to him about it.

And send him over here, we can use all the help we can get.

yeah sorry if it feels like i'm just trying to get some details deep on my father. we just had a bit of weird convo where he disapproves of poker and many many other things i do with my money, while i find it odd that at the same time he goes to Vegas 4 times a year to bet on the big races, and i was just curious about the odds for profitability doing it, when I had zero idea about how the bets work in horse racing. tyvm.

All good man let your pops do what he do and you do your thing enjoy each others company and bad beat stories

Here dancing one day packed in a purple can 3 days later...So much talent packed into a purple Hills Bro can....Enjoy life conduct your self with some common virtues and moral character throughout it because it is brief and they just going to pack ya up on a shelf anyways

Love being a horse player!

Some good insider commentary and KD handicapping video here including some derby prep replays on ** L I V E S T R E A M ** Courier Journal channel. (Sorry, Link doesn't work)

" you don't say...had not laughed that hard in awhile"

Well I'm glad I could make a fellow horse player laugh

Hopefully you'll crush the Derby and *laugh all the way to the bank*

If not, don't despair, there's always next year.


*Kick Out The Jams*

Was very glad to see the article today about martin garcia not going to kentucky to work the horses for baffert. Obviously i don't know exactly what the true fallout is but i do know that garcia works hard and i do feel that garcia should be on bafferts main horse. I get the owner has some say so but ive seen the way old man stevens rides and he can no longer get into a horse to finish a race as prior. Bottom line is garcias agent needs to open the door to other options for him and his rider.

Same story from 2 years back with BB and Garcia and will always be that way. BB is who he is and like a job with a high turn over rate it is because BB is tough on anyone's ears for a sustained period of time i am sure. BB probably told him ride another ride like that again and you will be lucky Subway hires your azz back and Garcia right or wrong always feels insulted and unappreciated for his work. This will work itself out again because they both may not like each other but professionally they need each other considering either is going anywhere anytime soon.

Here's a free legal legit link to the Kentucky Derby past performances courtesy of Brisnet.com if anyone wants it.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf

One more week to go boys and girls oaks derbys gonna be juicy. Pk 4 million dollar guarantee with tepin going against the girls gonna be juicy. Looks like my main wagers are gonna have to be how i seem to always roll.WEST COAST. Last year top 3west coast. Before that west coast before that orb (rasario west coast jockey just moved east) before that west coast (same owner trainer jockey as this years fav ) with west coast 2nd and 4th. Guess if we drew a line lol thru 2013 hard to argue. Not saying in pk 3 and 4 im not using outwork brodys cause and gunrunner maybe moyhaymen (tho i think his hearts been broken) but nyquist exagerator and mo spirit will be winners bets

Sgv, what's your thoughts on Suddenbreakingnews?

Week off to the 2 best minutes of every year.

grezen. to best answer your question honestly I need to know if u mean to win or hit the board? to win I don't think he has a shot on a dry track. I just don't think u can sit that far back in this race on a dry track. whats gonna happen on the break going into the far turn is 4 to 5 horses with break with the speed. 10 to 12 horses will be stuck in a group a ball clipping heels bumping and costing themselves while 3 to 4 more will gladly break slow stay out of the way and try to pick up whatever pieces possible. try to separate the race like this. A: owners who have money and don't care about making the money will do what it takes to win even if it means fading backwards. B: owners and trainers who honestly tell each other our horses style doesn't fit winning BUT were ok with that. we want to make money to buy more horses pay the trainer pay the feed guy so we will sit back keep the kick back out of our horses face go wide and clean up the slop. C: the group of horses who are good really good coming in. good enough to deal with some problem. horses that can go to the front or sit off the pace setter and make first run before the far turn and go tot he end. try this and catergorize where runners belong. then in there groups see who would win eachother from pp standpoint front pedigree from heart. then construct a tix. just a way I see it. that's why I like coming in and seeing whom else does something different. if we all see it a different way we can all learn something from one another. gl all

just watched the works on Kentucky derby .com website and on the 29th suddenbreaking news by far looked like the best worker moving and distance wise

Hey SGV, I meant just to run a good race. I wouldn't go anywhere near trying to pick a single winner out of this one. I'm starting to lean towards some eliminations first in my process.

My handicapping friend who does really well with pace and style in routes likes Suddenbreakingnews, so I have to put some weight on that when I get down to it myself.

whats gonna happen on the break going into the far turn is 4 to 5 horses with break with the speed. 10 to 12 horses will be stuck in a group a ball clipping heels bumping and costing themselves while 3 to 4 more will gladly break slow stay out of the way and try to pick up whatever pieces possible. try to separate the race like this.

This is very close to how I see it developing also. This is just speculation on my part, but I think it could create a false sense of urgency too early on the far turn. This could benefit the front runners who still have a head of steam this early, they're just not quite ready to drop the bit yet. I'm leaning towards a running style that shows a little more sustained stamina instead of brilliant burst of speed.

Or, a really good rider who can take his horse out for a relaxing 3/4 of a mile somewhere in the middle of the pack. Not try and force anything, and ride him downhill the last 1/2 mile.

There's some other really interesting angles this year pedigree wise also. History does show its a factor.

This year the rider is going to be a huge factor also, this is a complicated race full of emotions. Its going to take a good horse that has maturity, and can follow the riders leads.

Check in with my opinions on Oaks day because i really go into a bubble of isolation with my capping tools and absolutely DO NOT want to hear anything from anyone about Oaks/Derby day. Sure they have their opinions and ways they come up with them and bol but only opinion i wager on is my own.

I will go back and read afterwards the post and comments elsewhere and here to see who had some quality insight.

Just need the weather,the PP's really do not mean a lot to me this year i remember things well and i have been more profitable last 3 months by judging horse flesh by eye and how i will treat this years PK anythings and will post those.

Riker Man ask for a future KYD and you give him this...Turf horse

There is a really good android app out for the whole derby oaks week called Derby HQ.

I love the pics, the videos, the straight up information. I have had it since day 1, and I like the way it's updated during the day with anything new going on.

And honcho, you better not wait all the way till Friday and Saturday to share us your thoughts, or I'm gonna nickname you bubble boy.

Betfair New jersey exchange, starts in 10 days or so.

At some point, it may be worth having an individual thread.

Liquidity on current US racing, is about $20k a race, depending on track .. UK racing, on the UK exchange, is about $1m a race .. and certainly not less than $200k a race.

Once its legal, then the discussion re software tools will start, etc.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...xchange-may-10

The 12% deduction is interesting .. but, less than the 17% tote pool duduction, currently.

http://www.horseplayersassociation.o...5Sortable.html

how many people in this thread are from or in jersey that will be making these wagers. hope it spreads soon. I haven't heard one word about Trojan nation who is the maiden and will certainly be 70/1 derby day. gonna be 2nd off of the layoff. the wood had honest pace and this horse seems the best closer of all besides maybe creator to lose pinned on the rail. I don't think the jock will be old man gryder but even if it is nice timed race and effort. will be on my under for sure. just watched some derby replays before bed. night

Never going to need a new thread for Exchange Wagering it is dead in the water as i have already addressed this here. 12% MF'er PLEASE!!!

No one wanted to arb more than i itt and talked about this for years but at 12% and only NJ it is dead period