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04-18-2016 , 07:07 PM
I feel bad for anyone that had money on songbird in the futures. I would be so upset if I had placed a bet on her.
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04-19-2016 , 09:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grenzen
Hey honcho. Hey you guys, does anyone have any good twitter follows in the stables? Jockeys, trainers, owners? Anything that's relevant that they like to follow.
Especially any derby related.

I'm getting back into racing, and I'm still finding more ways to stay informed. So any help appreciated.

And sgv, I don't have a clue about good betting strategies for the Oaks / Derby Double. I'm pretty bad with the wagering side anyway.
I hope someone else can help you here grenzen i follow no one at all and do not tweet myself just here. Bob Ike i would check to see which horses were stuck at SA and that is it but i had stopped that start of year also. I do my own thing and only opinion i care about is my own. You can get the facts w/o opinion with Horse Racing Nation,Bloodhorse,Paulick Report,who are my go 2's along with weather.gov.

I can break down a race or card and sound every bit intelligent on the subject like most the talking "experts" do but i find it so damn boring man. You have a 1st timer out of Informed who should like the added distance 2nd out and w/o being compromised by a slow start rallied on to pick up the pieces blah blah blah...Every damn race show or whatever is the same because i hear the heads say this and i am like no chit! i just read that myself in the PP's...just bores me silly. I took ATS's advice and listened for awhile to the shows but unlike horses and most animals people are full of chit.

What about those shoeboxes full of cash grenzen and your bro in law and sister running cover with firecrackers and switch blades to get you past the mexican border? Sounds like you knew how to bet at one time
I would help you there but turning $2 into air is not unique to myself but i do believe i have perfected it
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04-19-2016 , 11:56 AM
So many changes since I was seriously involved in racing. I'm actually overwhelmed with information now. I thought some twitter feeds would be fun to follow.

Yea I'm seriously done with smuggling switchblades.
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04-19-2016 , 02:06 PM
So what your saying is that you are looking for something else other than us here in the HRT i get it grenzen But to seriously help you out the best i know would to find someone as a starting point say like Bob Ike i have used as an example...On the left it will be people he follows or vise versa and they are almost always connected to the industry somehow and several are very entertaining.

This said it is overwhelming and when you just want fact because you have your own opinion its hard to decipher.
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04-19-2016 , 03:55 PM
When I worked on the track, it was so much easier because I knew the trainers and jockeys, and had a good gauge on who was running good. I also bet less races then too, because, well, I only bet on something I had a good feeling about.

Now when I look at the form, it's just names. Grrrrrrr.

So I thought Some twitters would get me some personalities.

As an aside, I just found the equibase mobile app, and I paid the $2 bucks for the premium days card . I really enjoyed the color bar graphs that you can compare multiple stats, and pick and choose the stats to compare in groups.

For sure this forum is a good resource for different opinions and points of view.
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04-19-2016 , 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grenzen
When I worked on the track, it was so much easier because I knew the trainers and jockeys, and had a good gauge on who was running good. I also bet less races then too, because, well, I only bet on something I had a good feeling about.

Now when I look at the form, it's just names. Grrrrrrr.

So I thought Some twitters would get me some personalities.
While I use Twitter to follow roughly 150 Horse Racing people, I have gained the most useful information on Periscope. The best tip was a Periscope of Victor Espinoza at the Keeneland Breeder's Cup last year where he was attending a social function 'A taste of the Worlds' on the Thursday night before the Classic. He just looked super, super confident and relaxed that night on Periscope, and in retrospect, he had every reason to be. After all , he knew better than anyone else what an awesome race his horse was about to run.
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04-19-2016 , 04:28 PM
Is Dallas eyeing place $ again in the Derby. Not sure Tom is Ready for that.
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04-19-2016 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grenzen
When I worked on the track, it was so much easier because I knew the trainers and jockeys, and had a good gauge on who was running good. I also bet less races then too, because, well, I only bet on something I had a good feeling about.

Now when I look at the form, it's just names. Grrrrrrr.

So I thought Some twitters would get me some personalities.
my 2 cents

if you worked at the track or on the backside you know how it works. most if not all of the good info is leaked and spread around like a virus. I've been privy to all sorts of insider stuff over the years, and rarely does it pay off. like you said, you only bet the ones you feel good about. no need for twitter, it's all over the track, and it spreads from there. about 98% of those "tips" are so over bet that you can't play them.

as for personalities...sure there are plenty, but I doubt much of what gets said in private conversations on the backside would ever make it to twitter. I don't think many would like to share their thoughts, comments, back stabbing, or bull crap on a public forum. are there interesting stories and gossip...sure all kinds, but any of the good or useful stuff will mostly be held back from public view.

don't know that it would help much anyway.

by the way I got a hot one for Thursday....
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04-20-2016 , 02:18 AM
Yeah man, what you say is pretty spot on. Made me remember a lot of stuff about the lifestyle on the backside.

You pretty much live on your own tips, stuff you see, stuff you know about your own horses and friends horses. You dig into the form before a race to checkout the competition, looking for combinations and plays. You knew your reliable horses, who was feeling extra special lately.

As far as twitter, yeah all that crazy trainer talk before a race is just that.

I appreciate your post man.
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04-20-2016 , 10:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lost Weekend
While I use Twitter to follow roughly 150 Horse Racing people, I have gained the most useful information on Periscope. The best tip was a Periscope of Victor Espinoza at the Keeneland Breeder's Cup last year where he was attending a social function 'A taste of the Worlds' on the Thursday night before the Classic. He just looked super, super confident and relaxed that night on Periscope, and in retrospect, he had every reason to be. After all , he knew better than anyone else what an awesome race his horse was about to run.
First i would agree completely with the well wrote out post by jacksquat and for myself i am sooo ignorant to this part of the horse business never been on a backside and only to a horse race 1 time ever.

LW i always forget to ask you to bring us up to speed with this periscope which i am interested in very much. I think this is a great and unique tool just know nothing about it. With the camera's and as simple and cheap and as decent as a picture you can get off them i always thought they should pop a stick and a cam on top of it in the infield so a horse player could constantly get a physicality view of the horse he/she was looking to invest in that race. Why on earth TS for say CHD goes to the pools for 2 minutes at the 4 minute mark is dumb and outdated but could say that about plenty.

As for following a circuit it is just easy for me because of my memory and between that and my eye i just use those PP's as guides anymore but it is usually just a couple tracks like now with Keeneland and Aqueduct so it is easy. A virtual stable can help out a lot for runners you do not want to miss coming back. I am good about remembering what the horse has done and what i think he will produce in the future but be damned i can remember when or know when he/she runs again so its nice to get a reminder saying hey dumbazz that horse you liked out of SA 5th a couple weeks back is running today in the 3rd at Los Al.

Weather says time to get to work and make some $$ today Best of luck today fellas on all your plays.
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04-21-2016 , 11:02 AM
Aqueduct 4/21/16

1.) 4-3-5
2.) 3-5-2
3.) 2-3-4
4.) 4-6-3
5.) 4-6-3
6.) 2-3-6
7.) 7-3-4
8.) 8-7-9
9.) 4-1-8

Nice card today at the Big A
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04-21-2016 , 04:12 PM
HANA's free Horseplayer Monthly is out again. Track Ratings edition. Rates thoroughbred tracks mostly by track takeout, though other factors apply
PDF: http://horseplayersassociation.org/apr16issue.pdf
Mobile: https://issuu.com/charli125/docs/apr16issue/1
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04-21-2016 , 10:03 PM
12% takeout on winning Exchange wagers LOLOLOLOL...Get what your dumb enough to take...7 tops is fair

HPB always appreciate the monthly read man
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04-22-2016 , 05:09 PM
Given the way this 3yo season has gone; I am fully expecting Nyquist to draw the rail.
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04-22-2016 , 05:50 PM
I am still learning a lot about this game. One thing I do before the KY Derby is compare prep times to other races run at the same track and distance that day. Often there will be a stakes race for older horses on the card. In looking at Santa Anita Derby Day I see that Exaggerator finished in 1:49:66. Track was listed as Sloppy(Sealed). Race 1 was a maiden special weight for 3 yo that came off the turf and ran on dirt, also at 1 1/8 miles. Winning horse Wild about Deb finished in 1:49:02. Track was listed as Sloppy(Sealed). My initial thought would be that this does not flatter the Santa Anita Derby. Am I way off in thinking this way?
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04-22-2016 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aphbig1371
I am still learning a lot about this game. One thing I do before the KY Derby is compare prep times to other races run at the same track and distance that day. Often there will be a stakes race for older horses on the card. In looking at Santa Anita Derby Day I see that Exaggerator finished in 1:49:66. Track was listed as Sloppy(Sealed). Race 1 was a maiden special weight for 3 yo that came off the turf and ran on dirt, also at 1 1/8 miles. Winning horse Wild about Deb finished in 1:49:02. Track was listed as Sloppy(Sealed). My initial thought would be that this does not flatter the Santa Anita Derby. Am I way off in thinking this way?

Bettors will look at it one or 2-ways

1. It doesn't flatter the SAD winner

2. look at the splits

MSW: 23.05, 47.09, 111.27
SAD....22.15, 45.24. 110.12

The faster they run early the slower they come home

"Kick Out The Jams"
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04-23-2016 , 02:32 PM
On those sealed tracks, they seal the top smooth to keep the water running off, but under that seal the heaviness of the dirt will change a lot during the day.

The first few races generally have the better surface to run on.

The track maintenance guys have a lot of tricks, and so much depends on how much rain has been coming down in the past few days, and hours.

I would say you have the right idea, but I just wouldn't put so much weight on it when the variables change so much during the day.

Personally I hate getting into sloppy track handicapping. They can pack it down hard or soft between races and you don't really know what the effects are. But their main concern is to protect their racing soil, so it isn't anything they are trying to mess with the races.

If you want to study off tracks, I would suggest looking at a history of post positions win% and itm%, and for track tendencies either inside, middle, or outside. Usually the inside runs slower these days. The track is sloped for drainage to the inside. But looking at middle and outside can be interesting.
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04-23-2016 , 05:54 PM
"Usually the *Inside* runs slower these days"


Good Point!
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04-23-2016 , 09:23 PM
didn't really like the video of nyquist today. head wasn't straight didn't seem interested. guess unless I go back to other cant compare it to much just didn't like it. every day that goes by more of the people who don't care to study do their homework will latch onto nyquist. more and more I'm seeing brodys cause odds going down. each day its making me want to spread more and more ugh lol
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04-23-2016 , 09:55 PM
He has a unique running style for sure, but I wouldn't dismiss it as a soreness issue.

They are all still a little green turning for home, switching leads, the crowd noise.
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04-24-2016 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aphbig1371
Given the way this 3yo season has gone; I am fully expecting Nyquist to draw the rail.
Nah BB somehow gets his reservation in early for this spot
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04-24-2016 , 10:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho
Nah BB somehow gets his reservation in early for this spot

U don't want the *one hole* in the Derby b/c of where the starting gate is placed.


*Kick Out The Jams*
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04-24-2016 , 01:53 PM
I liked mohaymens work. He looked really good. I think Danzig candy is an overlay. People are overreacting to fact he didn't like the slop. As long as it doesn't rain, he prolly wins Santa Anita derby. Looking into playing the pick 4 this year. Thinking about running a nyquist/Mohaymen ticket along with tepin as a single and spread in other two races. Prolly will also run a ticket where i spread 5-6 in the derby along with tepin single and go a little lighter in other two races. Only thing I dislike is it looks like the other two races will be pretty chalky so payouts could be meh. Everyone will
Be singling tepin which makes the play suck
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04-24-2016 , 02:37 PM
Pretty sure you mean the KY derby, not the SA derby.
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04-24-2016 , 02:40 PM
Pretty sure he meant that if it hadn't rained before the SA Derby he would have won
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