I certainly think Charitable Man has the biggest upside in what i feel is a suspect bunch in this years Bluegrass. He's bred to run all day and really couldn't have done much better as a two year old. Based on his works he seems to be fully recovered from his injury and his breeding suggests he will love the synthetics. The down sides obviously coming off the injury, running a mile and an eighth first start in 7 months. Apparently you heard otherwise, but connections sort of suggested in an interview they might not go balls to the wall to try and win this race, but rather get a good race in him, earn the graded money necessary for the Derby and go from there. Although horseman rarely tell the truth in pre-race interviews. IMO, he might simply be better than these horses and win anyway. Its also suspected horse are less likely to bounce coming off a big synthetic effort as opposed to dirt.

I guess the horse I would be most worried about is Hold Me Back. I had him in the Lanes End @ 9-1, so I certainly will not take the 3-1 or less in the Bluegrass. My main concern with him is that this may be his Derby,imo. he seems to be a horse that loves the synthetics and does not project well to the Derby on dirt. He does have talent and if he gets the pace to setup his closing kick , he could be tough.

Mafaaz is also undefeated on synthetics, albeit overseas. His connections are as good as it gets. His only loss is to Donativum, BC Juv. Turf Champ. Timeform ratings are on par with these and could run a big one. He is already in the Derby. Personally i am not a fan of first time North America, but this horse has to be considered.

To me anyone else would be a surprise, but this is Keeneland, where crazy **** usually happens. I will be on Charitable Man on top and bottom of these two. I hope the weight of my muush doesn't bring your horse down. Best of luck, Hope your cashin, not trashin.

Win Willy and Old Fashioned rematch at Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn) today.

Win Willy took Rebel Stakes last month as 56-1 dog.

Sire is Monarchos.

Something to look at, I'm from AR originally and an old HS classmate is big on the horse. Her husband is a serious capper.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. As to whether anyone is being tight lipped about CM I guess the odds board will tell!

Charitable Man is said to be a horse that makes a striking appearance. The layoff is a concern, but in today's game(and against this field) it can be overcome. It looks like he could sit right off whatever pace there is in the Bluegrass - a spot that has been winning so far this meet. I just hope he doesn't drop on the odds board as a wise guy horse.

I will top and bottom him with seven horses, then key in a little. I agree with you on Mafaaz. Interested to see what kind of appearance he makes. I am also worried that Theregoesjojo may not take a liking to synthetic and run poorly despite his huge efforts in Florida.

Good luck to all!

P&L ?

Nice analysis Simon.. I'm taking off until derby day.. just shelled out over 1k on summer schools.. how you making out?

Ah, how I miss Monarchos. Such great Derby odds that day after winning the Fla Derby. Goes off at 10-1 and only runs the 2nd fastest winning time in Derby history. [and Invisible Ink placed at 55-1!] Probably only Derby I've yet to even meet one capper/liar who said he hit the exacta, lol.

LOL,again Kev. I really dont know,won every bet obv yesterday,think it was around $300 or so profit. Wasnt a huge day obv,very chalky,but take what they give me. Did play the early pk4 for $4 10x,had my single in the 3rd scratch,got PT fav,and made i believe $300 from that,and hit late pk4,think i made $60 or so off that. Not real good at keeping track,i just cash when i hit a certain ammount in my account. I know its not a real conventional way of doing things,but has anything of how i became a horseplayer been conventional? Ignorance is bliss in my case i guess. Good racing today in Kentucky and Arkansas.

carryover at SA. two tickets:

5,7 // 5 // 1,3,7 // 3,7 // 1,2 // 4
7 // 1,2,5 // 7 // 3,5,7 // 1,2 // 4

annnd pk4:

1,3,7 // 3,7 // 1,2,8 // 4,8

no favorite included in the 1st leg because I don't understand how he's the favorite or even 3rd fav... guess that makes me the fish

EDIT: It appears as though i'm a master handicapper. If you guys want to subscribe to my picks it'll be $100 per race from now on.

Does anyone know when Calder Race Course opens up?

Tough day.. but, if you played the pick three in races 7 thru 9, it was a $12 bet that got back $57.. hit that a couple times and you recoup a bit.

Run better next time!


April 24th, first post 12:40pm EST.

Thanks. Remember when I was in the dining room at Calder and I seen Pete Rose with some hot blonde girl. He was a total gentlemen and gave an autograph. His table was covered in tickets ranging from $100-$500 each ticket.

Nice track and good payouts for Pick 3's...I nailed a Pick 3 at Calder last year for $6,300. I think it was a $14.00 horse, $75.00 horse and then a $24.00 single last race. $6.00 investment.

If anyone is interested...

There is a horse I been waiting to run finally got notified on my stable today that she is running on April 16th, 2009 at Aqudect. I got a pretty strict list of horses that do well in my stable.

Horse is on the AE list so not sure if she will run. Will let everyone know on the 16th if she is running. Possible it could rain as it will rain on the 14th and 15th and in which I would love the horse more. But we will see should be one scratch in the race then it will be 50/50 if she runs.

Aqudect 7th Race, April 16th, 2009. 1 1/16 Turf

AE...DJ's Strom

Mrsfreeze

Great race calls to watch for anyone viewing this thread.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QflXzgEj1g

Also which is a better race call in your opioion for this race?

Tom Durkin call Afleet Alex Preakness - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfFzODoD7YY

Or

Dave Rodman call for the Preakness - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op78_8CYZ0Y


I like the Durkin video as it shows the Trainer/Owner after the race their emotion when Afleet Alex stumbled also in it slow motion. "Jermery Rose almost fell out of the saddle!"

Does this mean that you would like wet turf or that you would like it moved to the main?

How do you get involved in owning a horse or a share of a horse and how much capital is usually needed?

This a great thread and hope it is around for a while.

I recently went to the horse track for the first time (harness racing at Hoosier Park) and had a great time. I was there for about 6 races and won just over 500 on a eight dollar exacta. Obviously pure luck as this was my first time and am not real familiar with handicapping and the horses involved.

Anyway the point of my post is that I really enjoed the races and would like to become more familair with horse racing. I saw earlier in the post 2 books that were recommended for handicapping and exotic bets and plan to pick them up when I get the chance. I have a few general questions I was hoping someone could answer for me. (sorry ahead of time if they seem obvious)

Where do you guys get your information for races? Are there online sites where you look this up or are you going to OTB places and picking up programs?

Do you bet at OTB sites or do you bet online?

Also for example Kevroc talks about the carry over for certain tracks being so many $$$. Where do you find out this information? Are carry over $$ one of the most important factors in the bets you guys make??

Again any helpful information for someone wanting to get into horse track betting will be greatly appreciated.

Thanks for all the help

I personally get all my information from DRF, it was what I started reading when I first started betting so that is what I am used to. I formulate my own picks for the race and then I read the DRF Analysis to see if there is anything I am missing.

I use an online site and there is a dog track Derby Lane close to my house so I go there and watch the simulcasts.

You can usually find the carryover amount listed on the website of the track. I don't have a bankroll yet for the Pick 6s but I usually do Pick 4s or Pick 3s. I also bet Exactas when I feel strongly about a horse and try to get that horse a little bit better of a payback by trying to pick the #2 horse. Only been betting for 4 years or so, I am only 28 so I am fairly new to this but always have enjoyed horse racing since I was a kid picking horses by name for my grandfather.

Well do you want to be a thoroughbred or harness handicapper? Or both? I dont know many that do both. I am thoroughbreds all the way. I use DRF (Daily Racing Form) for my PP's,and have a solid virtual stable which is offered through Equibase for free,very helpfull. There are several online betting services to choose from,depending on which state you live ofcorse,some states dont allow it. The top 3 imo are Twinspires,Xpressbet,and Youbet.com. All offer live racing video also. Calracing.com is very good for California tracks for a free live feed,and to use as a handicapping tool to look at past races on video,you do have to register to use calracing services though. Dish network is very useful also because they offer HRTV,and TVG which cover several horse tracks for live thoroughbred and harness racing. Hope that helps some.

I Just opened an account at twinspires and I am certainly an amateur at handicapping horses but look forward to participating in this thread. I have bet horses before but it consisted of mainly betting the odds. Taking out the favorite and boxing an exacta and such.

From here forward I am going to work harder on learning about capping. Gl all.

It is extremely pricey to own a horse and to take care of it. It all depends on how much you want to spend you can cliam a horse in a $5,000 race and all the way up to $100,000. You can buy a horse at a auction for as little as $1,000 and all the way up to $16,000,000. A horse named "The Green Monkey" was paid for $16,000,000 and the horse was a huge POS. John Henry who was a great horse was paided for only $25,000.

It costs about $30,000 a year to keep your horse in racing. Trainer fees can cost anywhere from $30-$150 a day. So you kinda would want to be a owner/trainer of the horse or if you have a trainer in the family as myself.

The trainer is very close to our family for over 35 years and just reunited with him a few years ago. My family bought this horse at a good bargin back in Sept 07 and we started to run her start of Jan 09, horse is named after my little sister may she RIP. Will know in about a day or two if she is going to run and I will let everyone know as she is on the AE list just got off the phone with him.

Running in a claiming race but Alan said most likely don't have to worry about her getting claimed. If she gets in on the Turf on Thursday to bet her and if it is a sloppy track bet her. We loved to hear that from him as the past two times she ran he told us not to bet her. But said she has a very good chance against who she is running with on Thursday as most never been on the turf.

Will be at Aqudect if she is running if any 2+2ers would like to meet up on Thursday.

I'll let you guys know.

what was the horse's name mrs freeze? how'd she fare?

5 Martha's Mandate Victor Santiago 46.60 13.00 8.90

Alright, I'm guessing you guys that are betting the Pick 3s are betting on offshore sites instead of on sites like youbet.com and xpressbet. Am I wrong about that?

Which sites are the best and why?