Can anyone give me the overall odds long term for a favorite (posttime) of running 1st or 2nd?

I have heard the favorite wins approx 30% of time but im interested in knowing how often he does not hit the 2nd and 1st combined.

RA is a lock for HOY no matter which horse wins any other race this year
if Zenyetta runs in the BC classic he would be no where near 2/1 , more likely upwards of 5/1

I just "cha-chinged" a $778 pick 3 at Woodbine races 3-5 on a $12 ticket.

$7 horse, $32 horse, and $31 horse...

I feel like a king right now. time to blow a little on the pick 6...

right on walk...

Howd you fair in the pick 6? I am gonna hammer down today and work my new system...

Spent $96 hit 4 of 6... Oh well. Nice little day at the track (well on my couch), so to speak, though.

I profited around $820 at woodbine, took a shot at los alamitos early pick 4, and belmont late pick 4, to no avail.

I'm really trying to learn to be ultra-selective when it comes to racing. I'm getting better, I think.

Hey guys, havent been playing that much. I had the day to myself Wednesday, so I went to Belmont.

Sad to see how empty the old barn was but, the weather was nice and I sat by the finish line and watched the ponies.

It was a chalkfest and I found a way to lose $300... but, it was a nice day.

if you yanks can get a bet on the QEII tomorrow then i suggest delegator to be value,went off fav in the 1st classic of the year and finished 2nd (beating tomorrows fav Rip Van Winkle quite readily),then went on to finish 2nd in the irish equivalant took a break and came back to win at goodwood 4 weeks ago winning convincingly now sold to the all powerful godolphin stable,he could be the value at 5/2 tomorrow.

Sup Kev,

Belmont has been wild lately...the mud the other day made for some weird run ins...I posted my Ellis park stats for the meet was STRONG +25k or so....I grabbed a 16k super though...

nice!

Our money in this game mostly comes from windfalls.. Beyer said this in one of his books too...

I'm not up on my KY racing, I look forward to seeing your insights in this thread!

I might even buy some panties! (search this guys' posts to get this joke)

I've got a horse I've been following on my virtual stable, named Warren's Grandslam. He's racing today at Race 1 at Fairplex. 8/1 Morning Line Odds, expect him to get to around 5/1, but still great value. 7 furlongs should be the perfect distance for him. I'm not too happy with the number 1 post, but I am going to make some plays on him to W/P and include him in all my exotics.

Don't be confused, the #2 horse in this race is named Warren's High Yield (no relation to Warren's Grandslam, I don't think...). Actually, Warren's High Yield is a nice looking horse, so he'll be in the mix, but I am recommending WARRENS GRANDSLAM.

gl all!

Hey Walk,

Loving the 1 horse at fair too im thinking of wheeling the 126 with 12634..well see...

8-1 Morning Line is weird. IMO, at worst, he's the second best horse in the field. If he were at like the 3 or 4 post, i would be even more enthused. Just hope he doesn't get trapped on the rail...

OUCH...I did 50 aacross and watching him run 4th was pain...I did save some face and did a 10 buck exacta wheel 12 with 123 so I got some back...but DOH!

yeah, it was painful. i made some money back with a $171 pick 3 win thru races 6-8.

playing the late pk 4, really like #5 Racketeer in the Stakes race 11... but after race 1, i wouldn't take my word for it

Just a general question that i'm sure has been answered a million times in this thread...

I know almost nothing about horse racing technically besides i remember my dad telling me to look at the bayer numbers or something when i was young in the DRF, what would be a good introduction to learning the sport? I am a full time poker player just looking to expand into horse racing a bit for fun and hopefully profit a little bit, so where would i get started?

If anyone is interested in hitting me up on AIM my sn is nineallday00 for advice on where to look to get into this stuff, also if anyone wants to "trade services" i would be willing to coach/go over hand histories from any holdem SNG/MTT (i'm mostly an MTT turbo sng player but i do know mtt strategy my results just kind of aren't there lifetime :-)).

Hi stanski,

I'd start with reading "Handicapping 101" by Brad Free

Follow just one circuit for a few meets and handicap the races the best you can.

Try to pick winners.

Then after you got the feel of things, read "Exotic Betting" by Steven Crist.

Tool around with some wagers on paper and when you are comfortable, head for the windows.

Keep records of your plays and p/l.

I'd suggest the Southern California circuit.. (Santa Anita, Hollywood, Del Mar)

Kev is right as usual...


Keep it simple do win place show on horses you think that can actually win and have a 2 to 1 or greater odds is then when ready move up to exactas tris dime supers and even pick 3s...

OH what a sick day today got down 800 then hit a 5 dollar exacta at thistle with 22 to 1 over 7 to 1...thought I was hitting home run...it paid 180 or so for 2...puke

I got some help from a horse racing handicapper and he recommended doing daily doubles. After the first five days I am in the red. Are these things profitable? Am I wasting my time?

Thanks from the info guys! I will start there.

I'm a huge fan of daily doubles. Here in NY, the take-out on daily doubles is 18.5%. In comparison, the win take-out is 16%. Across two races, the take-out is almost half of what win bets would be in each race individually. This doesn't guarantee a win, but it reduces the frequency with which I have to be successful in order to show a profit.

Some tips:
- If there are maiden claimers or cheaper horses who do not exhibit consistent form, I will stay away from the double in those races. There are occasions where I spot value in the doubles in cheaper race pay-outs, and I might dip my toe in. In other instances, I may find vulnerable favorites mixed in with competitive long-shots. The latter angle is particularly useful in turf races where very little talent separates the field, and the race comes down to the path/speed tactics chosen by the jockey.

- Don't hesitate to spread it around a little, even if to cover your wagers. Should you like 2 horses in each race in a double, giving a smaller chance to an additional horse in each race, then use the third horse in each race in back-up doubles. In this instance, I examine the projected pay-outs and use the horses I like less with bet sizes that cover my total wagers on the race.

- The most profitable doubles for me have come on major stake days where there are multiple competitive races towards the end of the card (the exception, of course, being the last race of the day). These pools can skew highly towards favorites and offer good value on even the 2nd or 3rd betting favorites.

thanks Kim!

although, I wouldn't advise a novice to play vertical wagers right away.

(vertical wagers are wagers that demand you pick the exact order of finish.. like who will come in 2nd 3rd or 4th)

It is hard enough to pick winners.. also, it is imperative to understand that one of the hardest things to do as a trainer is to teach a horse to pass.

Horses are pack animals by nature and have an instinct to run with the group. Sometimes, in the PPs you will find horses that seem to love to finish 2nd or 3rd. They have talent and always run well and score high figs but, do not WANT to pass.

That is another reason why I like the horizontal wagers that demand the bettor to pick the winners of multiple races. The pools are big and you do not have to worry about the also-rans. Just first across the wire!

+1 Kev,very well explained. Dont give up to much info,i like all the dead $$ in those pools

Try to get some picks in next week,been moving all week,my adventure continues...

Hey guys long time lurker in this thread first post. I definitely have appreciated all the insight you guys have provided me with regarding the So Cal meets as i live on the east coast and really only play the tracks here when i get a chance. Anyone playing belmont this week ?

i like a horse at meadowlands today race 8 follow my dream on the turf, he has bad form recently but hes a solid turf horse on the NYRA circuit and Meadowlands is significantly easie . His morning line is 10/1 and hes worth a stab at that price..

I hit a nice double in the opening card at Oaktree yesterday, summer movie went off 13/1 in a maiden race on the turf, i had 2 horses in the next leg, both faves the fave won it paid 107, i thought it would pay a lil more, both fields were big and the fave in the next race was a lukewarm 2/1 it was a 9 horse field and a wide open betting race. oh well at least in came in.

Santa Anita is awsome at least compared the the nyra tracks yestrerday at blmont was gross chalk most of the day, Did anyone see the last race at oaktree bombs away a 75/1 shot came in. wish i would of wheeled california flag with all the late double, for longshots the California circuit is awsome, with the exception of fairplex. Im gonna chart a lil later for SA ill post my picks if anything catches my eye--

Nice fat double carryover at Oak Tree today. I won't be playing as I have zero free time but, go for it Grinder!

As for your meadowlands selection, what happened?

Did they cancel racing?

Equibase only has results for races 1-3.

I used to go to the Meadowlands alot during the winter flats and I found that a handy angle was to play horses that have shown success under the lights before.. whether it be at places like Penn National or even the ol' turf sprint course of Atlantic City!

Alot of NYRA chalk gets burnt up because they have never run under the lights.. not even in workouts!