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05-11-2014 , 02:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlwaysTwinNSpired
This is 1 thing i can agree with u on BBB however, Durkin was 1 of the best ever & we have him to thank for several great calls!! I watched the real quiet victory gallop bmont race this morn & his call of that race was epic!! Poor guy jus held onto his craft a little to long. He must have bumped into Jeter & Jeter convinced him it was time to call it quits.lol
I think he's been pondering this move since he butchered the "Mine That Bird" derby call.....
My questions for the guys itt is this...
Does Durkin still call the Belmont Stakes for the in house simulcast feed? I know Colmus has it for the NBC coverage...
Would be epic if CC gets to the Belmont with the TC on the line & Durkin gets to call a TC winner in his final Belmont.
Second question, if the TC was on the line at the Belmont, would u rather here Durkin give 1 final call since he's had to call 7 triple crown failures & this would b his last chance to do so, or have Larry Colmus call it?
Durkin isn't stepping down until the end of August, so he will be the voice heard at Belmont if you're not watching on NBC.

I would rather hear Larry Collmus. Durkin stepped down from doing the Triple Crown and handed the torch over... Every year there is always a possibility of a Triple Crown and when he resigned he knew what he was giving up. On top of that although I'm not a Collmus fan... At this point in his career he is a lot better than Durkin.
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05-11-2014 , 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by BBB624
Be careful what you wish for.
Any chance Wise Dan would take a shot?
A horse of the year has to race and win big races I think he's ready.
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05-11-2014 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MidWestSide
Any chance Wise Dan would take a shot?
A horse of the year has to race and win big races I think he's ready.
No shot... He might come back to dirt at some point this year but I think I heard the connections say he is done until mid-summer... You're looking at Goldencents and Sahara Sky but I'm not sure who else.
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05-11-2014 , 03:26 PM
Sounds like easy work for palace
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05-11-2014 , 03:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MidWestSide
Sounds like easy work for palace
Really? Wow... I hope the majority of the bettors are thinking like you so I get value elsewhere. Goldencents should not be overlooked.
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05-11-2014 , 03:54 PM
Goldenscents didn't look so well his last race plus has he raced this year? Sahara sky was very good last time out I know they both have a great win a piece at a mile but palace malice is a great horse
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05-11-2014 , 05:55 PM
What would the case for Social Inc. be? 1 3/16 is right because thats where the wire needed to be at AQ? Its not a put down thing, looks fast and well intended to me.

All but the fewest of few are impervious, whats the match up style that would crack the Chrome?
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05-11-2014 , 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBB624
Really? Wow... I hope the majority of the bettors are thinking like you so I get value elsewhere. Goldencents should not be overlooked.
Im not worried bout Sahara Sky too much, he seems out of sorts at the moment & over ran. But....golden Cents... I agree w/you. Def wont be easy b easy work
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05-12-2014 , 02:35 PM
Anybody gonna be getting there "Preak On" this week??
I remember somebody itt posting a video of the infield on Black-eyed-Susan Day of all the college kids participating in the "Kegasus" promotion.... From the looks of it, Baltimore gets a lil more shat faced than the blue blood's on the 1st saturday in may. ...
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05-12-2014 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlwaysTwinNSpired
Anybody gonna be getting there "Preak On" this week??
I remember somebody itt posting a video of the infield on Black-eyed-Susan Day of all the college kids participating in the "Kegasus" promotion.... From the looks of it, Baltimore gets a lil more shat faced than the blue blood's on the 1st saturday in may. ...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_2ADWBZgS8
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05-13-2014 , 12:18 AM
Can Ben's Cat be beat by any of those friday @ Pim?
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05-13-2014 , 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted by prickly00
Can Ben's Cat be beat by any of those friday @ Pim?
There is 2 or maybe 3 horses that could spring the upset on paper....... However, Bens Cat has shown in the past he's even better 2nd off the layoff figure wise & he has 2 maintenance drills since the April5th win that suggest he's as sharp as ever. A soft Turf course would lessen his chances slightly it seems, but it would also lessen his main rivals chances, as Bold Thunder doesnt run well on soft turf courses. If its a Firm Turf Course, Bold Thunder seems to look like the likely upsetter, as this lightly raced Patty Farro trainee seems to b peaking rite now, comming off 3 terrific outings sprinting on the lawn down at gulfstream this winter/spring in some overnite stakes where he had 2 wins & a 2nd.
The other 2 horses i give a punchers chance too are Great Attack, who has been MIA since being claimed last fall at CD by Hugh McMahon for 62k & if Hugh is able to get GA back to his better #'s rite off the shelf, then he's a major player, however as great as Hugh Mac is off the claim, its awfully hard to improve a Wes Ward trained horse, so im treading lightly there, the other chance i see is Wicked Tune, who has been running behind Bold Thnder down at gulfstream, but if he shows up with his "A" game & the other foes show up with less than there best, he could spring the upset.
So thats the way i see it.
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05-13-2014 , 01:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlwaysTwinNSpired
There is 2 or maybe 3 horses that could spring the upset on paper....... However, Bens Cat has shown in the past he's even better 2nd off the layoff figure wise & he has 2 maintenance drills since the April5th win that suggest he's as sharp as ever. A soft Turf course would lessen his chances slightly it seems, but it would also lessen his main rivals chances, as Bold Thunder doesnt run well on soft turf courses. If its a Firm Turf Course, Bold Thunder seems to look like the likely upsetter, as this lightly raced Patty Farro trainee seems to b peaking rite now, comming off 3 terrific outings sprinting on the lawn down at gulfstream this winter/spring in some overnite stakes where he had 2 wins & a 2nd.
The other 2 horses i give a punchers chance too are Great Attack, who has been MIA since being claimed last fall at CD by Hugh McMahon for 62k & if Hugh is able to get GA back to his better #'s rite off the shelf, then he's a major player, however as great as Hugh Mac is off the claim, its awfully hard to improve a Wes Ward trained horse, so im treading lightly there, the other chance i see is Wicked Tune, who has been running behind Bold Thnder down at gulfstream, but if he shows up with his "A" game & the other foes show up with less than there best, he could spring the upset.
So thats the way i see it.
Impressive, thanks. Supposed to pour rain. Found a backtrack the turf monster? Think it was. Anyway looked wet, Cat got em at the wire. 5f is his wheelhouse I guess. Ill go with the single Im sure.
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05-13-2014 , 01:50 PM
I think California Chromes biggest threat in baltimore is coming into the race a bit under the radar...... Dynamic Impact is expected to start & he is supposedly been training lights out since the Illinois Derby thriller where he beat Midnite Hawk by a nose... He seems fast enough to keep up early & u can tell from his last race, theres no quit in him either. Love the rising beyer pattern & my gut tells me he's maturing into a really nice horse & is only gonna get better, cos it really seemed like he was clueless as to what to do in that last race, cos he was gunned to the lead outa the gate from the rail, but wasnt quick enough to beat midnite hawk to it, so he was pinned down inside, in what was a quirky fast half mile. And when MH won the race to the far turn & it appeared that DI was done at that point, but Mena then does the unthinkable.. After dueling for 3/4's of a 1m1/8th race & these 2 running away from the rest of the competition, Mena lets MH clear him & cross over to the rail & then Mena tips DI off the rail & out into the crown of the track & DI jus keeps digging & when they hit the wire DI had his nose down!!,(i had a decent score on the horse, so im prolly a bit biased).. Fwiw, Dynamic Impact had his nose in front at only 1 point in the entire race & that was on the wire!

He won that race on pure ability imho, cos there was no way that Casse/Mena's strategy/instructions were to ride him like that.. Not sure what kind of figure he was given, but it was a monster of a race & the kind of race that leaves u feeling like theres better things to come for DI.... Also, Casse had mentioned in an interview the week leading up to the Illinois Derby, that the plan was if they ran good & came out of the race ok, they were pointing him towards the preakness... Its always a really good sign when a trainer's idea/plan comes to fruition... That means everything has went according to plan & theres been no hick-ups in training. So scary if he takes another step forward this saturday imho.
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05-13-2014 , 04:49 PM
Good stuff on DI.
The Chrome has got looser slower conditions comin next two, gonna be a change for him.
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05-13-2014 , 08:31 PM
It could be an off track as well.
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05-13-2014 , 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by AlwaysTwinNSpired
How are u coming up with 95.24%? Or are u saying if u can sustain that u'l b above break even? Cos its kinda hard to quantify ones ability to select winning bridge jump bets over a lifetime.
Do u bridge jump?
95.24% is the break even point for a payout of $2.10. So I was saying that if it wins over 95.24% of the time, it is a good bet. Yes, I realize it is impossible to exactly know your % chance to win.

Coincidentally, there's an interesting article about bridge jumping here on 2P2 and it looks very recent.

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...umper-bets.php

I don't bet horses much because I don't have enough time. I did bridge jump on Palace Malice. I sports bet so I used my offshore accounts. I was shocked to see that most of them had limits of $50-$500 on place betting. Bookmaker had no limit. They just have a hard limit on how much you can win on any one race.
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05-14-2014 , 07:01 AM
Have not heard much said about Kid Cruz other than writing him off as a toss.

Anybody care to weigh in here? I think he looks interesting obv.
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05-14-2014 , 12:05 PM
Are there Any people here uk scoop six bettors £10m pool saturday seem value for a 2£ punt
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05-14-2014 , 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Post-Oak
95.24% is the break even point for a payout of $2.10. So I was saying that if it wins over 95.24% of the time, it is a good bet. Yes, I realize it is impossible to exactly know your % chance to win.

Coincidentally, there's an interesting article about bridge jumping here on 2P2 and it looks very recent.

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...umper-bets.php

I don't bet horses much because I don't have enough time. I did bridge jump on Palace Malice. I sports bet so I used my offshore accounts. I was shocked to see that most of them had limits of $50-$500 on place betting. Bookmaker had no limit. They just have a hard limit on how much you can win on any one race.
if u continue to take advantage of the fact ur bet is not effecting the tote pool & u keep betting "sure things" in the place & show column, they will prolly drop ur limits or block u from the horses... Bout 2-3 years ago 5dimes blocked me from playin the horses (however im still allowed to log-in & bet sports), then last spring i started beating up on Carbon Sports by betting 2,3,4,5 horse Place & Show parlays at B & C tracks (there was a few times where i had so much money riding on the last leg of the parlay that the horse i had the show parlay riding on wouldnt even have the amount i have riding on it in the show pool!)& that worked out good for like 3 weeks until 1 monday morn i signed on & parlays were no longer an option on the horses. Then during the Sam Houston tbred meet this winter/spring, i started using my Bovada account to bet my pick3's & pick4's there bcos i felt like the payoffs in the horizontals were becoming too saturated & felt like it would b a decent way to circumvent the saturated payoffs. To my suprise, they gave me no problems at all, & were the most professional to deal with (and ive heard horror stories bout people dealn with bov, so maybe i jus got lucky).. When you can play a $100 3horse show parlay at a track like Beulah or Portland Meadows caliber & ur $$ isnt going into the pool, it means the world. Lets say theres a 7horse field & i like the 5/2 second choice & i put $100 to show on him, im likely to not see anything over $2.40- $2.60 cos there's prolly only $300 total to show on him n the pool & $1,500 total in the show pool. So then lets say i dont bet that $100 to show, the horses show payoff is more likely to b around $3.00-$3.20 or maybe even $4.00-$4.60 if the favorite doesnt hit the board with him. So when u can bet a $100 show parlay & avoid the tote pool & still get paid tote prices, uv got a huge advantage (especially @B,C,D Tracks where Plc,Show pools are never big) & sometimes when id play a $100 parlay, id have 5 or 6 hundred to show on the horse in the final leg of the parlay. It was literally like printing money..
Does bookmaker offer parlays on the horses? If so, il have to dabble in that fo sho!
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05-14-2014 , 06:26 PM
^^Good Post ATS ^^

Def way to cut back on takeout and I have had the same things done to me as well at the same spots. Did it a little different but same results so it is wise to spread action around books imo but watch as mentioned some books have limits to payouts per race and track.
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05-14-2014 , 09:39 PM
Wet weather at Pimlico - Friday is looking wet. Anywhere from 0.75" to 2.0" of rainfall during the race card depending on thunderstorm rains.

It will be dry and a very nice day Saturday.
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05-14-2014 , 09:48 PM
Anyone bet using drf.com? I got a $100 bonus if i wager $100 and $20 just for signing up. Any advice how I should play this? I'll probably bet the preakness on sunday and use my 5 dimes account and DRF. Any advice on taking risk with the $120 i basically get for free or hedging since i can bet from 2 different sites.
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05-15-2014 , 11:54 AM
Ok middle of May and I have to have the heat on in my place that is just f'd up fellas and capping in cold blows. So where does Honcho go because only being able to live 3 months out of 12 here in Michigan is not cutting it on my timeline.

Open to suggestions and very serious all I need is a recliner to elevate my leg and specific food for a horseplaying gremlin like myself and I am all set. No Vegas again too damn hot and horrible green selection which I need.

Staying away from Friday's card at Pimlico too damn wet for my liking and will concentrate on Saturday's card which fingers crossed is dry.
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05-15-2014 , 12:14 PM
^^Honcho, i recommend North Florida. You need warm weather, but not boiling hot weather. Of those type of states, Florida is most ideal for u. Georgia would b nice, but they dont have pari-mutual wagering & residents are NOT able to have an ADW account. Arizona would b nice as well, but cant have an ADW there either, u have to place bets at either the track or an OTB.. Then cali, the cost of living makes it impossible (unless u hit a big so-cal pick6 before arriving)... North Florida, Orlando area is what id recommend Honcho. Reason are, nice airport & u can catch a direct flight to just about anywhere u wanna go, no state income tax, OTB/ADW/Track options galore, will have medical marijuana program in place by next year, never gets colder than 40° in the winter & it never snow's, cost of living is cheaper compared to other warm climate states. And i can assure u that Orlando is a nice town to live in & is easy to navigate thru, traffic is really only an issue when ur near the disney attractions, as the rest of Orlando is a breeze to drive thru 95% of the time.
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