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HORSE RACING THREAD HORSE RACING THREAD

05-03-2014 , 10:12 PM
William Hill in Vegas has a yes/no line on CC winning the Preakness at even/-120 and a yes/no line on CC winning the TC at +200/-240
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05-03-2014 , 10:36 PM
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Originally Posted by AlwaysTwinNSpired
That was simply special.... Im a lifer in this game & never have i seen a horse toy with his opposition (getting blind switched repeatedly early on) like CC jus did. I hope everybody that cares a lil about racing understands how lucky we are to b witnessing this.... That was awesome to watch that pan shot 3/4's of the way thru the far turn when the 2 horses inside of him & the horse on his outside were riding for there lives bouncing up & down, cracking there whips, throwin crosses & Victors jus still as a statue in the stirrups!!! Absolutely breathtaking.
CC was two tons the best...pretty much saw what you saw and was telling my table he was a winner in the middle of the turn. just a great looking racehorse, that won for fun.

on another note, one of my drunk buddy's, who only looks at the green sheets, had a $2 straight exacta, and a $1 trifecta. this guy wouldn't know a horse from a large dog. it took almost 5 minutes before he even knew he had the tickets. we were giving him crap that he found the tickets on the floor. ugh.......

congrats to all that cashed.
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05-04-2014 , 12:39 AM
amazing race made a degen bet on CC my first ever horse racing bet just because im from cali and wanted some action and i loved the name

just made me a fan of horse racing!

thought i was done when he was in 3rd like 3/4ths of the race what a finish
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05-04-2014 , 03:08 AM
There was never any point in that race where I thought anyone but California chrome was gonna win... The pace was absolutely perfect for him and he could've won by 10 lengths IMO. Triple crown winner? I think he has a great shot...

Had all 4 horses in a superfecta ticket but left out the 17th in 1st and 2nd.. That stung.

Overall.. Great race for me.. Had a few different win tickets on 5 and had a $100 double on wise dan/Cali chrome
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05-04-2014 , 11:03 AM
good morning. to honcho ATS and tripleh and othersz a LOCK is a lock is a lock lol. we were locked in. i had my internet bets (4.25 oaks/woodford/derby pick 3 ugh) plus went to the barretts sale otb and put my juicy win and exacta plays that paid. Yesterday was a day in history for LA, my town (hype). see dodgers won , CC killed, kings ducks was a ot fight kings won.. clippers warriors was sooo sick and LA won. killer day plus mayweather fight was great. great LA day good job to all. oh yeah to of my buddies froM LA went to derby so i have my CC 2dollar win bet for my collection and some official derby cups and others coming my way. i wish last night never ended. Now time to let CC get rest eat good and be ready for 2 weeks away.
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05-04-2014 , 12:23 PM
SGV my man.....I think your me on the west coast LOL...Started watching undercards saw money's date he brought to the ring with him again in his pretty hat...in my dictionary look under fugazi there is a picture of that dude....anyways the fact that a judge had it 114-114 shows me the horse steward to boxing judge angle is alive still almost like his number was predetermined but that wouldn't happen With money talent is talent and I believe there is a easy game plan to beat him but no one at his size has the skill set to do it period. Have a couple days of replays to catch up on from NY and CA so busy on that today and watching live. Only talent in the MLB I follow is Trout...He reminds me exactly as a right handed Mickey Mantle as was described to me by my father.
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05-04-2014 , 12:36 PM
It would be shocking if chrome loses the Preakness. What about the Belmont seems like he had more in him at the derby.
Danza looks like he could be a spoiler

Last edited by MidWestSide; 05-04-2014 at 12:48 PM.
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05-04-2014 , 03:02 PM
What a great day today! Congratulations to everyone who made some $. Looks like we might have a superstar. I never really introduced myself, and wanted to thank everyone for helping me with some armature questions.
I have always had an interest in horse racing and at least watched the Kentucky Derby for the last decade. It was three years ago that I developed an obsession for following colts pointed towards the Triple Crown and their prep races. In 2012 I placed my first Derby wager. Knowing that I would be arriving in Las Vegas the first Saturday in May, I began following the 3 year olds early in the season. Immediately after picking up the rental car at LAS, the wife and I were off to the Las Vegas Hilton to catch the race on the big screen. I think I wagered <$100: $20 win on Ill Have Another; $2 exacta Ill have Another over Bodeimeister and a few others; min trifecta without Dullahan. Anyhow the room became very quite. I quickly united with the only other person in the room that seemed happy with the results. This guy was definitely not a tourist, looked like he just got off work, and spoke broken English. I told him I also hit the exacta. He said "I have exacta too"! We did a high five, a toast, and walked to the windows to get the loot.felt pretty good that day, the short trip also found me winning a daily tournament at the Aria and finishing 8th he final night at the Friday Orleans 7pm. I would eventually get the trifecta in the Preakness, but everybody else also had that ticket.
Last year I became even more involved. Not only was I looking at PPs constantly and watching every prep race; I began watching replays over and over. Often times to watch it from the angle of varying participants. I also began educating myself on things like pedigree and speed figures. After the Fountain of Youth, something drastic would have to happen for Orb not to be my pick in the Derby. I though that the Florida Derby was shaping up to be the toughest prep going in and Orb solidified his stature in my thinking. I got the trifecta in that race which would help finance some misses in the other preps. My second choice on Derby Day was Revolutionary. I boxed a $40 exacta Orb, Revolutionary; and played the $1 trifecta Orb/10 horses/all. This is kind off where my question came in about my 5/all/all/ bet this year. While it would have been very profitable last year, the correct bet at 6-1 would have been the win on Orb. Am I correct?
This year I definitely felt I was the most educated going into the Derby. I really felt even a month before the race that the Santa Anita was shaping up to be the toughest prep. California Chrome solidly put away a strong field. That weekend I also got the future wager on Hopportunity for $40 at 15-1. This left me with a great feeling going into Derby week. I could play California Chrome on top, and if what I thought he was the second best horse came in, I would still collect $640. Then there was the scratch and every ones opinion that CC did not look good at CD. This being my third Derby with some insight gave me concern as my prior two Derby favorites were receiving great praise Derby week. I finally reminded myself of the following: I have watched all these races, California Chrome is the fastest horse, California Chrome has beat the best competition, California Chrome is the most consistent, California Chrome looks to have allot left in the tank. I bet the min trifecta 5/all/all; $30 win on Dance with Fate and Intense Holiday; $66 superfecta with 5 on top and WS and Danza in the second spot(I used commanding curve in my 3rd and forth spot combos).
This year I stayed at home to watch the race with my wife. I am glad that I did this. Being able to hear the trainer interviews was priceless. Listening to the interview with Art Sherman gave me chills. My wife was very excited for the race also, as she is my sole audience for all my analysis of every race leading up to this one. Going into the race my main concern with California Chrome was his break from the gate. He has had some poor breaks, but his talent has been more than enough to compensate for this. I was unsure if he could afford that against this field. Well, for half a second it looked scary,but Victor put him in a great position. Someone had mention in this thread that Victor might take him to the front, while I thought this was possible and CC could definitely run that race, where he ended up was ideal. Next test was the first turn-beautiful, I think Victor eluded to fact it was won here. After that it was pure anticipation of him breaking at the top of the stretch. Truly one of the greatest sports moments I have ever witnessed! California Chrome looks like he has plenty left. My wife and I were screaming as he came down the stretch. I did not even check my account balance until all of the broadcast had been completed.
I have always been a big sports fan. My main team sport is the Chicago Cubs. After scouring the net for post race talks interviews, etc. I briefly turned on the Cubs game. I turned that off explaining to my wife that I just cant go from the great moment I experienced to less than mediocre baseball. Over the past few years I have found much more gratification following horses than any other sport. I'm not sure why, it just feels better to me. I almost feel like I matter more as a fan, and that I am more of a participant. My main hobby has been poker for several years, but I am starting to spend more time following horse racing.
When I came across this thread I was a little intimidated. There are guys like Honcho and ATS that obviously have experience and knowledge light years beyond what I know. I appreciate them and everyone else being welcoming and approachable. While my computer, phone, and tablet are filled with downloads of PPs, I feel that my education stems mainly from watching races and replays. If I were to go to the OTB on a normal day, I would be lost trying to handicap horses I do not know. I have never had anyone around me that is involved or a fan of this game, so I would appreciate any help or suggestions from people on getting more involved in handicapping or any other aspects of the game. Thanks. Go Chrome!
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05-04-2014 , 03:14 PM
horse bettors:

there is a track opening up about a 9-minute drive from my house this fall, and I plan on hitting it up on a semi-regular basis.

gives me about 6 months to learn as much as I can...

any sites/books I can read that will make my experience, especially early on, a little smoother?

alwaystwin in particular, I think I remember you saying back in the best bet days to ask if I ever decided to get into horses... now I'm asking

other than betting most of the races on triple crown days, and maybe 2-3 times when my uncle would take me to mountaineer when I was ~12, I'm essentially a noob.

I can read a daily racing form (though I wonder for a local racino if they'll even have that?) but other than that and just betting undervalued horses, I am putty in your hands.

where to start? preferably 3 or 4 books if possible.

I fully realize this most likely won't turn me into a professional, however given my obsessive-compulsive adherence to bankroll management, it won't cause me to fall behind on bills either. I just want to be a little more prepared when I start going in November...

thanks horse bettors.
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05-04-2014 , 03:15 PM
also, they will have off track wagering as far as I know. that and lots and lots of slot machines which won't tempt me even in my drunkest moments, never been a pit game guy.
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05-04-2014 , 03:17 PM
Don't get carried away with a very small margin of victory considering a perfect trip, a dawdling pace (even slower than it looks because of the wind) on a very fast track, where many contenders had pretty rough trips. The fact that the top 12 or so finishers all were within 9 lengths, and that he only beat that big closing pig by less than 2 for 2nd is meaningful. Also, don't overestimate how much faster he could've gone. Maybe a tick. He was being worked midstretch for sure. People always take these perfect trip easy winners like CC, Fusaichi Pegasus, Orb and think they could've run so much faster. Beware. May get another great trip at Pimlico for sure, and he's got the ideal running style. But it's too early to think he's historically elite.
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05-04-2014 , 03:18 PM
Wiper, you should know that slot machines are generally a better bet than the horses. And slot machines are rape.
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05-04-2014 , 03:35 PM
Just saw 97 Beyer. Makes sense given what I listed above.
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05-04-2014 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MidWestSide
It would be shocking if chrome loses the Preakness. What about the Belmont seems like he had more in him at the derby.
Danza looks like he could be a spoiler
LOL are you joking? Danza is going to spoil nothing. CC was head and shoulders above the competition and will probably win the preakness. IDK about the Belmont but I expect him to win the preakness. Probably won't be worth betting as his odds will be garbage.
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05-04-2014 , 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
Don't get carried away with a very small margin of victory considering a perfect trip, a dawdling pace (even slower than it looks because of the wind) on a very fast track, where many contenders had pretty rough trips. The fact that the top 12 or so finishers all were within 9 lengths, and that he only beat that big closing pig by less than 2 for 2nd is meaningful. Also, don't overestimate how much faster he could've gone. Maybe a tick. He was being worked midstretch for sure. People always take these perfect trip easy winners like CC, Fusaichi Pegasus, Orb and think they could've run so much faster. Beware. May get another great trip at Pimlico for sure, and he's got the ideal running style. But it's too early to think he's historically elite.
...Killjoy. Just kidding. Good points. In my limited experience, this was indeed what I envisioned as a perfect trip for this race. Yeah, I saw that 97. I think he is being trained and ridden well. I think he will be live for the TC at Belmont.
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05-04-2014 , 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10
LOL are you joking? Danza is going to spoil nothing. CC was head and shoulders above the competition and will probably win the preakness. IDK about the Belmont but I expect him to win the preakness. Probably won't be worth betting as his odds will be garbage.


Danza ran a good race got blocked in the stretch will not race until Belmont will be well rested and could run a big race.
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05-04-2014 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
Wiper, you should know that slot machines are generally a better bet than the horses. And slot machines are rape.
Clark I like/respect you...that said, being that horse races don't have an automatic payout %, I'd like to disagree.

like I said, I'm gonna go often anyway, might as well figure out how to lose less monies...
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05-04-2014 , 05:37 PM
Typical penny slot hold is 12-14%. The best standard hold on straight bets is like 18% and gimmicks tend towards 25%. You've got to be a LOT better than the market just to get to that fixed slot payout.

I love horse racing too but it's the worst for this stuff. The illusion that it's beatable (and with few exceptions it's an illusion ) is just that. An illusion.
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05-04-2014 , 05:38 PM
Best advice stick with one card at a time. Forces you to focus more and limits the number of races you'll bet in a day.
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05-04-2014 , 05:38 PM
Yeah you cant see a 37/1 shot comin from a month away in a slot machine.

Still no mention for Commanding Curve?
Troubled preps and closed, held out sittin on a big race. Drew well got the trip and ride came runnin.

K ill say it for debate if the track hadnt tightened up so much or if that was Belmont, the Curve woulda got the Chrome.
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05-04-2014 , 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by prickly00
Yeah you cant see a 37/1 shot comin from a month away in a slot machine.

Still no mention for Commanding Curve?
Troubled preps and closed, held out sittin on a big race. Drew well got the trip and ride came runnin.

K ill say it for debate if the track hadnt tightened up so much or if that was Belmont, the Curve woulda got the Chrome.
I watched the replay of the LA Derby several times going into this week. Another !/16th and Commanding Curve wins that race.
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05-04-2014 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
Typical penny slot hold is 12-14%. The best standard hold on straight bets is like 18% and gimmicks tend towards 25%. You've got to be a LOT better than the market just to get to that fixed slot payout.

I love horse racing too but it's the worst for this stuff. The illusion that it's beatable (and with few exceptions it's an illusion ) is just that. An illusion.
I have learned that the rake is pretty ridiculous, but isn't there some value in big races like the derby, considering all the dead money. I suppose it is different when you are up against it multiple times.
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05-04-2014 , 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by aphbig1371
I watched the replay of the LA Derby several times going into this week. Another !/16th and Commanding Curve wins that race.
Yup and he got that extra distance yest. Danza and DWfate were a must play in my wheels thru Raise a Native sire line.
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05-05-2014 , 02:12 AM
Timing isn't everything, however...

Final 1/4 mile was run in 26 1/5 to finish in 2:03 3/5. Of the last 20 Derby winners only two horses had slower times - Super Saver and Smarty Jones.

Untapable hit the wire in the 1 1/8 mile Oaks in 1:48 3/5 essentially tying the stakes record and earning a 107 Beyer. Rachel Alexandra went 1:48 4/5 when she won the Oaks by 20 lengths.

Who is the real superstar?
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05-05-2014 , 02:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
Typical penny slot hold is 12-14%. The best standard hold on straight bets is like 18% and gimmicks tend towards 25%. You've got to be a LOT better than the market just to get to that fixed slot payout.

I love horse racing too but it's the worst for this stuff. The illusion that it's beatable (and with few exceptions it's an illusion ) is just that. An illusion.
If ur a square u would think like this & only like this

Edit
Never should anybody be getting raped18% on WPS & 25% on gimmicks. Rebates r easy to get Clark, but i can understand ur thoughts now if ur not getting rakeback.

Last edited by AlwaysTwinNSpired; 05-05-2014 at 02:40 AM.
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