Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevroc
I'm gonna play the million dollar pick four at Saratoga on Saturday and then i'm off for vacation... i look forward to hearing some analysis on this pick four.. it is all stakes races, culminating with the Travers.
GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
80% chance or rain overnight tonight and 40% Saturday is in the forecast at the Spa. TLDR with cliffs at the bottom:
Race 9 - Ballston Spa H. (G2 - 1 1/16M - Turf): Tossing Cocoa Beach for the top spot (last 2 races were no where near as fast as last years string of GI showings), and looking for this paceless race to be taken by one of the 3 inside horses: #1 Rutherienne, #2 My Princess Jess & #3 Closeout. Don't be surprised at all if Closeout takes this one down...
Race 10 - The Ballerina (GI - 7F - Dirt): Hard to fault the lightly raced #5 Indian Blessing back on her preferred surface, but she also hasn't shown the class that pulled down multiple G1's last year since her race in Saudi Arabia in late March 2009. I'll include her not to let the P4 get away, but I don't like doing it. #1 Music Note is another Godolphin Stable entrant that has taken a huge lay-off and is no where near the peak form that tore up 3 G1 races last years (toss). #2 Informed Decision is in good form, but spots between 3-7 pounds to her rivals. By my figures that's just enough to move her out of the top selection(s), but it's really close. #3 Tar Heel Mom has solid speed and gets in light. If Indian Blessing and Tar Heel Mom chew each other up enough on the front end, #5 Modification returns to her surface of preference with a buried race on the slop going 7F at Churchill 4 races back. I have been doing well with horses that come back after extended polytrack/turf races and explode their way back on to the faster, less deep main tracks on the east coast. So, I like the #3 Tar Heel Mom, #4 Indian Blessing & #5 Modification.
Race 11 - Kings Bishop (GI - 7F - Dirt): Man it's hard not to like the #1 Munnings, he's done little wrong in his brief career against some of the best speed 3YO speed horses in the country. Even his Allowance loss this year was by only 2 lengths to Jim Dandy runner-up Warrior's Reward (who is later entered in the Travers). But that Gr. 2 Tom Fool Handicap victory at Belmont was only against 3 other horses (2 of which cannibalized each other in a speed duel, and the 3rd had no shot). I'm not going to toss him, but I wouldn't look to use him for value straight up in the race either. #3 Capt. Candyman has had a remarkably consistent year for a sprinter, had a light freshener in the late spring and has been pointing to this all along. If he didn't run into a geeked-up Quality Road in the Amsterdam, that would be his name next to the track record for 6 1/2F at Saratoga (in that race, they BOTH broke the track record). The entry is intriguing. I believe that Vineyard Haven might end up being the best horse of this bunch (but, again, Godolophin off a huge lay-off is a pass) and Everyday Heroes hasn't figured out what type of horse he is yet (that race 3 back at Pimlico was a monster). Should the #8 Big Drama run his race, it is his regardless of how much crowds spook him (per jockey comments in his Preakness performance) or his tendency to bounce off horses in the stretch (was DQ'd at Gulfstream 4 back while he broke the track record that race...). I am going to include #6 Prince Joshua here because he's a big price and has the strangest late-developing form I have ever seen (literally). So: #2 - Munnings, #3 - Capt. Candyman Can, #6 - Prince Joshua & #8 - Big Drama. Bigger tickets can include the #1 because both parts of the entry can show up (if either runs their best, they are in the photo).
Race 12 - The Travers (GI - 1 1/4M - Dirt): This is as competitive a Travers I have seen in a few years. I can make a case for 6 horses in this race, and if I have a good undercard, I won't be surprised if I find my finger hovering over the "All" button in this race. Of course, Quality Road on his best wins this for fun. But at 6-5ish and with only one 6 1/2F monster prep under his belt, I don't think Pletcher can get him to classic form... he won't be a key for me, but he's in. Charitable Man has cost me a bunch of money already this year, and the jockey change here is like using your elbow to try to fix an old TV's bad reception. He's value, but I'm tossing him because he ends up behind these horses more often than not. The Belmont Stakes winner is solid here and trainer Tim Ice is an up-and-comer on the scene. #6 Summer Bird is in. #7 Kensei is in classic form, but he's also a bounce candidate off the Jim Dandy score. He's out. No way you'll catch #5 Our Edge off my ticket. How many talented longshots of Zito's run big when he decides to take a shot? Enough to include him here.
The bottom line: $1 Pick 4: $135 total
R9: 1, 2, 3
R10: 3, 4, 5
R11: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
R12: 4, 5, 6
Longshot ticket, $2 Pick 4: $32 total
R9: 2, 3
R10: 3, 5
R11: 3, 6
R12: 5, 6
Favorites ticket, $2 Pick 4: $24 total
R9: 1, 2
R10: 4
R11: 3, 8
R12: 4, 5, 6
Gogogogogogogogogo!
Last edited by centaurmyth; 08-28-2009 at 09:42 AM.
Reason: added favorite's ticket