wait also so macho again would not beat the horses in the travers????? LOL that is funny!!!!

Very astute handicapping sir-- why i nthe world would u take 4/5 on a horse who doesnt like to win and their first time on the turf

I had the winner that race but failed to catch the late double as "st choclate "beat me i had $5 doubles wit the two chalks.. paid 90 and 60 FML

Go to your room now, men are talking! lol, douchebag

Any early picks boys? need to get my bets in early, Long day on links for the club championship.

Any early picks boys? need to get my bets in early, Long day on links for the club championship.

Wasn't gonna play until Saturday but, wow $777k double carryover @ DMR.

Early handicapping.. some thoughts...

The first leg is fairly wide open, looking at 3 or 4 contenders.

The second leg, I'm leaning towards Recess.. maybe even singling?

The third leg, I hate to single in 2yo heats but, Imperatriz should roll.

The fourth leg is troubling, alot of stalkers.. looking at 5 to 6 contenders

The fifth leg is more stalking but, the grass variety.. i like 3 or 4 here so far.

The sixth leg, I have it down to 1-7-11, can't really see anyone else.

lol we made our ticket in like 10 min, we actually had the 1 in our real bets in the tiago race by the time it came up.

Wasn't even close on that big double carryover in SoCal.

I'm gonna play the million dollar pick four at Saratoga on Saturday and then i'm off for vacation... i look forward to hearing some analysis on this pick four.. it is all stakes races, culminating with the Travers.

GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

80% chance or rain overnight tonight and 40% Saturday is in the forecast at the Spa. TLDR with cliffs at the bottom:

Race 9 - Ballston Spa H. (G2 - 1 1/16M - Turf): Tossing Cocoa Beach for the top spot (last 2 races were no where near as fast as last years string of GI showings), and looking for this paceless race to be taken by one of the 3 inside horses: #1 Rutherienne, #2 My Princess Jess & #3 Closeout. Don't be surprised at all if Closeout takes this one down...

Race 10 - The Ballerina (GI - 7F - Dirt): Hard to fault the lightly raced #5 Indian Blessing back on her preferred surface, but she also hasn't shown the class that pulled down multiple G1's last year since her race in Saudi Arabia in late March 2009. I'll include her not to let the P4 get away, but I don't like doing it. #1 Music Note is another Godolphin Stable entrant that has taken a huge lay-off and is no where near the peak form that tore up 3 G1 races last years (toss). #2 Informed Decision is in good form, but spots between 3-7 pounds to her rivals. By my figures that's just enough to move her out of the top selection(s), but it's really close. #3 Tar Heel Mom has solid speed and gets in light. If Indian Blessing and Tar Heel Mom chew each other up enough on the front end, #5 Modification returns to her surface of preference with a buried race on the slop going 7F at Churchill 4 races back. I have been doing well with horses that come back after extended polytrack/turf races and explode their way back on to the faster, less deep main tracks on the east coast. So, I like the #3 Tar Heel Mom, #4 Indian Blessing & #5 Modification.

Race 11 - Kings Bishop (GI - 7F - Dirt): Man it's hard not to like the #1 Munnings, he's done little wrong in his brief career against some of the best speed 3YO speed horses in the country. Even his Allowance loss this year was by only 2 lengths to Jim Dandy runner-up Warrior's Reward (who is later entered in the Travers). But that Gr. 2 Tom Fool Handicap victory at Belmont was only against 3 other horses (2 of which cannibalized each other in a speed duel, and the 3rd had no shot). I'm not going to toss him, but I wouldn't look to use him for value straight up in the race either. #3 Capt. Candyman has had a remarkably consistent year for a sprinter, had a light freshener in the late spring and has been pointing to this all along. If he didn't run into a geeked-up Quality Road in the Amsterdam, that would be his name next to the track record for 6 1/2F at Saratoga (in that race, they BOTH broke the track record). The entry is intriguing. I believe that Vineyard Haven might end up being the best horse of this bunch (but, again, Godolophin off a huge lay-off is a pass) and Everyday Heroes hasn't figured out what type of horse he is yet (that race 3 back at Pimlico was a monster). Should the #8 Big Drama run his race, it is his regardless of how much crowds spook him (per jockey comments in his Preakness performance) or his tendency to bounce off horses in the stretch (was DQ'd at Gulfstream 4 back while he broke the track record that race...). I am going to include #6 Prince Joshua here because he's a big price and has the strangest late-developing form I have ever seen (literally). So: #2 - Munnings, #3 - Capt. Candyman Can, #6 - Prince Joshua & #8 - Big Drama. Bigger tickets can include the #1 because both parts of the entry can show up (if either runs their best, they are in the photo).

Race 12 - The Travers (GI - 1 1/4M - Dirt): This is as competitive a Travers I have seen in a few years. I can make a case for 6 horses in this race, and if I have a good undercard, I won't be surprised if I find my finger hovering over the "All" button in this race. Of course, Quality Road on his best wins this for fun. But at 6-5ish and with only one 6 1/2F monster prep under his belt, I don't think Pletcher can get him to classic form... he won't be a key for me, but he's in. Charitable Man has cost me a bunch of money already this year, and the jockey change here is like using your elbow to try to fix an old TV's bad reception. He's value, but I'm tossing him because he ends up behind these horses more often than not. The Belmont Stakes winner is solid here and trainer Tim Ice is an up-and-comer on the scene. #6 Summer Bird is in. #7 Kensei is in classic form, but he's also a bounce candidate off the Jim Dandy score. He's out. No way you'll catch #5 Our Edge off my ticket. How many talented longshots of Zito's run big when he decides to take a shot? Enough to include him here.

The bottom line: $1 Pick 4: $135 total

R9: 1, 2, 3
R10: 3, 4, 5
R11: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
R12: 4, 5, 6

Longshot ticket, $2 Pick 4: $32 total

R9: 2, 3
R10: 3, 5
R11: 3, 6
R12: 5, 6

Favorites ticket, $2 Pick 4: $24 total

R9: 1, 2
R10: 4
R11: 3, 8
R12: 4, 5, 6

Gogogogogogogogogo!

Centaur, nice analysis. thanks for sharing your thoughts. I'm going to be in on the late pk 4 tomorrow too, looking for that 10% bonus from youbet.com.

Will post my pics tomorrow.

Let's hope I don't donk off my $$$ at del mar this afternoon/evening...

LOL!! funny thing is I am not a douchebag at all. You people should first learn the game I might as well start talking cricket i know about the same amount in that as you know about horse racing.

Heading down to Mohegan for Travers day. Wanted to go to Saratoga, but the weather sucks. Good luck everyone!

after a quick first glance, late pk4 looks a little chalky...

I think Race 10, and Race 12 (Travers) offer the best chance at getting some decent odds. we'll see what I end up putting in.

going to do some more research, hoping to pick off a few races on the under card before I put my pk4 in.

Gonna be a lot of slop and the turf will likely be closed. Gonna be a wild day.

0 for 4 already today. down close to a hundo.

either i should just realize that I suck at SAR and give it up for the day (smart move); or assume that "I'm due" and keep on plugging along (dumb move).

I think I'll go with the latter...

Summer Bird
Kensei
in the Travers

i have them on top too...

you're in trouble.

(posted in probablility and didnt get help on this)

I will pay 6 bucks to person who answers in detail of how they got answer.

Ok...here it goes:

8 horse field...

If I box 3 of them in an exacta (they must run 1st and 2nd)

what is the probaility of selecting correct?

How many possible combinations are there in an 8 horse field? Would it be 8! (permutation)?

Thanks in advance.

Hammering Ellis park today...

im 3 for 3 and hit one 2 buck super with 2 singles in it for 1st and second...having a strong day so far and looking to continue...

haven't hit a race yet. going for a cheap pk4 ticket, bc i'm depressed...

9) 1,2
10) 2,3
11) 3,6,7,8
12) 4,6,7

$48 bones. gl all!

Took a stab at the Pick 4 @ Saratoga, not running well lately but oh well.

9) 1-2-3
10) 2-3-4
11) 1-2-8
12) 4-7


Also as an aside I have a good friend, who's friend owns a very small piece of Munnings. He just told me the horse is training well and should give a good account of himself today. Obviously in a field like this he isn't going to say "He's gonna win" but he tells me the horse couldn't be doing better and the slop will not bother him at all, in his opinion. Take it for what it's worth, just thought I would pass it along.

And boom goes the dynamite, $50 euro-trash horse takes me and alot of other people out. Have a feeling this is going to pay boxcars.

Wow, won my first inquest ever on Capt Candyman. They've gone 100% against me lifetime until today.

#5 OUR EDGE wins & I luckbox my way into a very good day
#7 KENSEI wins & I luckbox my way into a breakeven day

anyone else wins, and

I'll give this a shot without thinking too much so there may be an error.

8! is the number of finishes 1 thru 8, of the total field, yes.

I would think this would be 8!/(5!3!) to pick the exacta having chosen 3 horses.

You have 3 horses boxed for top 2 so that's 6 outcomes, which is 3!, of course. AB AC BA BC CA CB.

So...1 out of 56 or 55-1 if all horses are equally likely?