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05-03-2013 , 11:16 AM
Great adds by everyone itt,looking very much to the Oaks today. Heading out to watch them at the Wynn today i decided,if i can quit puking,uggg....so if that answers your question SG,lol...cant even keep bananas in me,but what ya going to do.

DOJ is going to be my play for the Oaks,waiting till i can see her on the track,but most likely going $200W if i get 3-1,have conditional set for that,and will lay at the book on her as well. Hope everyone has a successful day
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05-03-2013 , 11:35 AM
Had to place my derby bets today as i work all day tomorrow.

$20 Verazzano win
$20 Goldencents place
$20 Itsmyluckyday place

booked
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05-03-2013 , 11:45 AM
#1 black onyx has scratched
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05-03-2013 , 11:56 AM
Black Onyx to be scratched, expect announcement w/in 1 hour.
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05-03-2013 , 02:21 PM
Oaks has a better field than the Derby
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05-03-2013 , 03:00 PM
I'm planning to do a lot of Derby betting online using Sportsbooks. I've bet a lot of horses but never on sportsbooks.

Any general advice on 5Dimes Plus 10% vs Rebate? My math says to go with the Plus 10% but I wonder if there's cases I'm missing. Also the Rebate book isn't loading right now anyway.

Also they set the max net profit in a race to $100,000. Other than that, any max win problems I'll have?

Also, does Betfair not offer Churchill Downs?

Thanks in advance
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05-03-2013 , 03:22 PM
Never use a sports book, they usually cap it at 300-1 because of taxes. Just use twinspires or xpressbet they both allow Churchill bets.
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05-03-2013 , 03:23 PM
Bombers/Longshots/Supers/Win Savers:

So you like longshots? Here are 4 you can take for a solid price.

1 - Black Onyx. 50-1! Horse has won on dirt, turf, and synthetic. That's pretty impressive given most 50-1 shots usually have no wins. Circled the field at the Spiral, has late kick. Must use in Supers.

2- Oxbow. Sired by Awesome Again, dam's brother also won the BC Classic. Gary Stevens and D. Wayne Lukas don't come to CD with no-hopers. 30-1. Beaten by a head in the Rebel Stakes.

11 - Lines of Battle. 30-1 that has not raced on dirt, won UAE Derby going 1+3/16th. Grandsire is Danzig, dam's sire is Arch. Bred to run all day.

13 - Falling Sky. 50-1. Unlikely to win, yet sire finished 2nd and damsire won this race, ha been more of a sprinter in his career. More of a pacesetter, if they let him take the lead and stay there might be hard to run him down?
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05-03-2013 , 03:25 PM
I'm all over Oxbow.
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05-03-2013 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
Keep in mind the race wasn't only slower, but they came home slower despite the soft pace. They basically ran every quarter slower than her. Granted, the thorograph guys say she ran maybe the fastest race ever, but nevertheless............
Yeah, sample size tho. Maybe the filly will be an alltime world-beater, who knows? Maybe the trainers told the jocks on horses like Orb to run just fast enough to qualify, don't worry about winning, etc.

Whomever runs the fastest tomorrow on that track, with a good ride, against that wall of sound off the final turn, will win. Always a crapshoot.
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05-03-2013 , 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayTeeMe
Thinking about rain. Who would benefit? Reading the DRF

Revolutionary's career best Beyer 102 was on a gd track
Giant Finish has run in weather twice and done so very poorly
Palice Malice ran ok (89) on a sloppy track in January.
Lines of Battle can't tell??
Itsmyluckyday had a local maximum on a sloppy track. I like this
Will Take Charge ran poorly in slop
Vyjack's career best effort was on a sloppy track!
Yeah, if it's sloppy I switch all my picks to the mudders, with Orb underneath. I completely change picks if that happens to win.
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05-03-2013 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jokerz2424
Never use a sports book, they usually cap it at 300-1 because of taxes. Just use twinspires or xpressbet they both allow Churchill bets.
From what I'm reading, 5Dimes sounds far superior than betting in the official pools.
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05-03-2013 , 06:00 PM
I stopped at the casino today to bet on palace malice for the Derby tommorow. I never bet on horse racing before. I told the lady I wanted the Kentucky Derby race #11 program number 10 to win. I didn't realize till after that the program number might have been different then his post number. So my ticket says $25 on #10 to win. Chuchhill advance race 11 may 4. Also why are there no odds on the ticket?
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05-03-2013 , 06:07 PM
Just home from the track. This year is the first I've been live in the KO/WR/KD pick 3. Caught the 6 at 38-1 (was 3 deep) and live to the 6,9 (no wise Dan) in the Woodford and the 2,3,6,8,12,16,18,19 in the Derby. I hate sweating a pick 3 like this for 30 minutes - now I got almost 24 hours. Lol.
For the record, I'll take Itsmyluckday in the derby!
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05-03-2013 , 06:59 PM
Whats the best place to open an account for betting derby? I have a 5dimes account but western union takes too long. I imagine twinspires? Thanks
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05-03-2013 , 07:22 PM
You're good. You get whatever odds the horse goes off at post time.
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05-03-2013 , 07:58 PM
The odds are not printed on the ticket because you didnt specify you wanted a "futures" bet on Palace Malice to win the Derby.
A futures bet odds are set for the exact time you bet, much like if you bet on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl today, you would get a set price that will not change as the season goes on.

In horse racing specificly, there is something called parmutual.
What that basicly means is, odds constantly change up until the exact time of the race.
No matter if you place a bet at Churchhill in Kentucky or Santa Anita in CA or at a variety of parmutual casinos in Vegas, you will cash your ticket for whatever the listed price payouts are for whatever race you bet on, at whatever track you play.

Not all casinos are parmutual however.
Those who are not, usually have maximum payouts on wagers placed with them.
This is very important to understand: Ask the ticket writer prior to making any bets if they are a parmutual book or not.

I hope my long winded explanation was of some help to you...

To answer your question in a different light, i think you bet on the wrong horse.

I like Normandy Invasion to win
Orb to place
Mylute to show

Good luck to you tho my friend, and welcome to the world of horseracing
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05-03-2013 , 08:12 PM
Im curious to get a few of the 2p2 Horsebetting reg's thoughts on live exotic picks for the Derby??
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05-03-2013 , 08:57 PM
Based on the Oaks-Derby Double..........here are the implied odds for the Derby:

1: Scratch
2: 27-1
3: 10-1
4: 45-1
5: 9-1
6: 19-1
7: 73-1
8: 12-1
9: 16-1
10: 19-1
11: 29-1
12: 12-1
13: 78-1
14: 10-1
15: 45-1
16: 8-1
17: 39-1
18: 49-1
19: 21-1
20: 16-1
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05-03-2013 , 10:23 PM
I like Vyjack at those odds but it's kinda scary betting a horse who's spent time in a hyperbaric chamber and drew #20
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05-03-2013 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
Oaks has a better field than the Derby
It was indeed, though it was funny that none of the super-fillies won. Julia's run was still impressive considering she got the trip from hell and had no chance whatsoever.
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05-03-2013 , 11:00 PM
Thanks Beldar and Wardrums. I get what your saying about paramutuals. I read about that before going down there and asking for a futures bet but it was so chaotic I forgot about it. I'm probably going to pay for it too since Mike Smith won the Kentucky Oaks tonight. I like Normandy Invasion also. My girlfriend is going down there tommorow morning to make a bet and I'm going to talk her into it. We leave for Las Vegas in 3 days and I definitely want to make some time for betting horses in between poker,craps,slots, and betting baseball.
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05-03-2013 , 11:28 PM
I know you've all been holding your collective breaths waiting for Roc's Derby Pick..

Here it is..

#11 Lines of Battle

Especially if it comes up wet. Hope he gets clean trip. Will be going forward when the rest are catching air.

GL
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05-04-2013 , 12:12 AM
Fwiw in town you can bet on an even number to win race at -200 at Caesars and take +220 at Wynn. Also, if you believe the implied odds from the Derby Oaks double will pays then the over 19.50 winning mutuel price is massively + EV.
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05-04-2013 , 12:12 AM
Also, hard to believe the race is run sub. 2:01.8
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