was listening to a sports talk radio host today who is huge into horse racing and owns several horses and heard him compare union rags to barbaro...i dont know the first thing about horse racing but that seems extreme no?

played cards with a jockey friend today. he likes union rags best, with gemologist and creative cause next. as of now i am not a huge fan of union rags or hansen. i won't be making any decisions until thurs. or fri. of derby week.

you heard it here first ok.. bodemeister= NEHRO

dullahan= statley victor

expect to see familiar silks in the winners circle this year.. winstar paul reddam goldophin micheal tabor winchell farms team valor one of these famous silks i believe will win oh and union rags of course

I will tell you some honest things about me and the Kentucky Derby. I've been a fan in player since 1999 and I've only picked two winners. Charismatic in 1999 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. 2 out of 13 represents a lower than normal hit rate, but I think the Derby is a more difficult race to pick.

With that said, I'll tell you what turns me on. It leads me to my pick year in and year out, or at least it should. When I ignore it I miss horses like Monarchos & Street Sense, probably the two easiest to see winners I didn't pick. I drank the Point Given/Curlin cool-aid, tyvm. It's turn of foot. It's the ability to take running position when it looks not to be there. It's gears. You know it when you see it. Some years it's harder to see than others. Last year AK was one I didn't love, but nobody but him had shown anything so...

The only 3 I'm even interested in...

Union Rags has it, obv & is the horse to beat.

Alpha is Animal Kingdom II. The 4 had position and was in front of him in the Wood. He tried to pin the 1 in so he couldn't fan out. The 1 took that **** away from him. It was like watching AK's Spiral only the 1 didn't win.

Creative Cause made an interesting move on the 2nd turn of the SAD. Not powerful, but interesting.

Bodemeister is more likely to be Bellamy Road than he is to be War Emblem. I will take a stand that he's gonna miss the board.

bodemiester killer race 148 plus ill have another and creative cause 147 plus full second behind im sorry but ill have another creative cause and union rags will close sick on him and hansen im thinking one of those two getting turned away just like uncle mo in the classic gemoligist closing in that group also and if there just happens to be rain well we know that

tiz now empire maker giants causeway dixie union and of course ill have another lol but those top sires are on the top of he list and the a.p. indy of course

Thats a Hell of an ROI as u state modestly that I "only" hit 2 out of 13 derbys. Lol. Couple $50+ horses as i recall.

Anyone else fired up for some "ils sont partis" tonite??? Absolutely love the product they put out. Huge fields of 14 horses makes for good opportunities.

ATS, fwiw, Charismatic was 31-1 and AK was 20-1. Both good hits, taking the simplest wagering strategy you can. They either win or they don't.

This race can drive you crazy when you gimmick up. The dumbest bet of my life was the year Giacomo won at 50-1. I surmised Afleet Alex to be the best of his crop and bet him to win. I assessed Giacomo as the training profile hoss with the most upside. I didn't bet him to win. Arrgh! I did put him in 2nd and 3rd behind Alex with ALL in a $1 tri and also him on top with Alex in 2nd with ALL for show in case he 'sploded. Well, Giacomo won, Closing Argument placed at 70-1 and Alex completed the tri. The one hole I left myself, the Giacomo-ALL-Alex order, is the one the race finished in. I cried myself to sleep for a week and still lament it to this day. True story. One that leaves me thinking I'm the worst player ever to open a program.

And that's why the Beyer speed figure was better with Bodemister? Which means nothing at all.

No offense but you have no idea what you're talking about. Santa Anita race track is lightning fast and is the fastest in the USA today. They're actually putting sand into the track to slow it down. Horses are running 21/42/54/107 which just doesn't happen in real horse racing.

A better way to compare how STRONG and GOOD Bodemister is. The race BEFORE Bodemister at Oaklawn was 1 1/8 Oaklawn Handicap for 4 year olds and UP. Drew a Grade 1 field Alternation, Ron the Greek, Yawanna Twist, Hymn Book, Stachys, Nehro, Win Willy and Don Dulce.

They ran that race: :23.91 :48.30 1:12.59 1:37.47 1:49.94


BODEMISTER race Wire to Wire

They ran that race: :23.02 :46.55 1:11.36 1:36.74 1:48.71

_

Everyone should read that ^^^ to realize how good Bodemister actually is.

He actually would have BEAT a Grade 1 field by 16+ lenghts with the time difference.

Couldn't agree more. Throw out.

i respect your stats and all but bottom line is bodemeister already ran against the top from santa anita and lost. ill have another and creative cause will smoke him and thats all there is to it. these 2 horses mentioned have one thing in common. they are pros bode ran great but hes 2nd rate to the top horses.(in my mind) we will have to see come race day but like my previous statement. you have to rate you have to sit and then go not just wire to wire and if you believe that well i wish i could lay against you

watch that santa anita derby look at how mario g gets the horse to rate keeps him in place takes a look back to see where the grey is. he knows it was a 2 horse race and just waited for the competition like a pro bode and creative cause was a good race no doubt but i say no. thats it 2nd 3rd yes maybe but going all out sorry

JO - that would be about 6 lengths, not 16. 1 length is about 1/5s.

anyways - to play devils advocate, he got a pretty unchallenged lead and set the pace on his own terms. when that happens, horse usually runs huge. i dont want to take away from what he did - he was great and crushed the field. but if he's on the lead in kentucky he's going to have heat from the get go and its going to be totally different. i think bode has improved the most over the last few months and has huge potential. i didnt think he'd be where he is at, heading to kentucky.

post draw is going to matter a lot in this race i think. i have a feeling he's going to be pretty short odds, which i dont like. but we'll see.

oh and did i mention they extra distance that he has to run oh how about he ran at 122 and lost he got to drop to what 118 so he has to add 8 pounds and extra distance man this guy better be a BEAST i think not. man its zayat 2nd itis (to me and i had gomez that race). look im from so cali and i want all west coast horses to do well breeders cup is home this year and others will come to us this november so i hope we show were best be ready. but bode is just not gonna be ready 3 and a half weeks plus distance plus weight i lay

http://www.horsebettingworld.com/wha...ange-wagering/This goes along with PTL's comments,and what Nadj pointed out as well...CHRB Please Please Please get your heads out of your backside and get the Exchange wagering going. It was approved for January,but ofcorse they have to see how they can benefit the most (steal) then they will get it running. This will increase some action to the sport imo,and do exactly what its suppose to do...Put up or shut up so to speak with Exchange wagering...JO and SG both feel strongly for their own reasons for or against a horse,and
Exchange wagering was designed exactly for this imo...So cmon CHRB i want to be rich

Not at all. Fantastic horse, will be a top 3 choice, same trainer. How close does it need to be? {obvs he's not 5 for 5}

one of the most underrated betting tracks in the business, baby....

i will have a massive erection if exchange wagering is finally approved. just as long as they don't ruin it with typical bull ****e.

Exchange wagering is the worst possible idea and it will destroy the game.

The industry is desperate to revive the game, so they are thinking outside the box.

The bottom line is, betting a horse to LOSE will throw the blanket of suspicion over EVERY move made on the track.

Invoke this and it's game over.

If it were a video game, sure.. we would all love it.. but, this is not a video game. This a game with real life players. Races can and will be fixed. (more than ever).. Horses WILL be stiffed.

You will never watch a race the same way again.

You will see stiffs even where there aren't any.

Just take a minute to think about it.. even the most straight laced horseman may be tempted to make a move or two when things are down and he needs a cash.

Can't even begin to bring a valid argument to the table but Kev is 1000% correct and I am drunk as a mofo, but that doesn't change the fact that Kevroc is right on. As a 40 + year fan and bettor of the ponies I can tell you the state of affairs as we approach this years Derby is at an all time low. The problems are to numerous to name but greed as always is at the fore front. Will have a more coherent argument when I sober up but horse racing is the sport I love and will support forever.

Hey walk, check out the fffing i took. Ul get a kick outa this. I showed kev las nite, but i thought id share this with the thread for giggles. http://[IMG]http://i1199.photobucket....jpg[/IMG]

Simon nice to see you around man,and Kev i dont agree with you at all,what a shock huh...I dont see it being the decline of UK racing or Irish racing for that matter,but like to hear your opinion...I will always be a fan of the sport,and often dont see value and sit on the sidelines and dont even play. Exchange wagering means never setting on the sideline again because someone will always be backing the wrong horse,and i intended to exploit that i hope. The people that are running the Thoroughbred industry are basicaly from track to track,and the plan they have right now is working sooo well for the sport we all agree everyone itt loves. So why try something new thats successful elsewhere,lets just keep beating this mule,sure things will turn around.

Santa Anita 4/19/12

2.) 3-4-5
3.) 1-4-2
4.) 1-5-8
5.) 7-3-1
6.) 1-3-2
7.) 2-7-3
8.) 6-3-2

Ok if it holds to what i see on paper just wake me for the 8th...