ATS i appreciate that and will do for sure.

Vetiver my man,always great to hear from you and thank you very much. I will disagree though on your capping,because your a sharp cat. I have saw other post of yours in diff threads and i remember the one in particular about the new coded poker software or 01software and i laughed my butt off.

Not capping as much myself because of just life things,and if i disappear again for a few months its because i hit the Appalachian Trail,i have about 3 weeks left to decide if i do it this spring or section it off starting this late summer. Can i do it at all with my limitations? LOL i dont know to be honest,it may be a huuge mistake,but if you know me you know i HAVE to find out.

Looking forward to the KY Preps the next few weeks.

Dunno if you noticed, but yesterday's winning dub paid 25.20 where the parlay paid 29. Just now realizing it was a bad bet on my part. Dubs usually pay at least parlay plus 10, so this one normally gets 31.80+, & more commonly in the 36 to 44 range. This game is hard to beat.

I wrote you about intent, citing the 6 month/CA no tag rule as well as Rosario being up 1st try for Carava. To that train of thought, it seems likely the double I bet is also where the connex unloaded as the win price was honest(13.20), and the dub to the 2-1 winner of the 6th paid parlay plus 50.

Bob Baffert repotedly suffered a heart attack in Dubai. Coutesy of The Daily Racing Form...

http://www.drf.com/news/bob-baffert-...t-attack-dubai

Damn! Glad they got the stents in,and will pray he does well on the trip home,being such a long flight blood clots always a concern,or DVT. Hope Bode is ok,usually where BB is Bode is,always loved that about BB. Get well Cowboy!

Wow just saw this. Looks like he is doing well though. What are signs of having blocked artieries?

http://[IMG]http://i1199.photobucket....jpg[/IMG]

evidently, Fair Grounds is going to have a 10c pick-18 on friday. lolz

Hi Everyone

Wondering if anyone wants to share one of their tips for winning at Horse Racing? And favorite winning Track?

Here are my last 12 month results...

# of Bets 470
Win % 20.64%
$1 ROI -0.06
Wagered $6607.70
Payoff $6185.70
Profit/Loss $-422.00

I think that I can clean up some leaks, but I would have to play another year to confirm. And also anyone know where to get good rebates and or any info how they work?

Tip: Although the odds can move around a lot (Due to late computer program betting?) I always try to bet a horse that goes off at lower odds than it's morning line.

Favorite Track: Turfway

Thanks! Good luck to all

Flying to Miami tonight for the Florida Derby this weekend. Looks to be a great field!

Pay The Line - can you give a little more info, like what types of bets you are making - exacta, daily double, win/place/show?

i'm a fan of TP, too. great track with some really good races. track announcer is good, too. Sad to see it close this wknd. (But I guess that means Keeneland is up, so its not all bad!) Golden Gate Fields has been a favorite, but the 5 & 6 horse fields have gotten super annoying. It makes for bad gambling and worse racing. I think Tampa is a really solid underappreciated track.

Chromakey - have fun, man. should be a good 1 for sure. miami's prob not a bad spot for a vaca either!

Im afraid to look at my roi, win%, amount wagered, and win/loss...

My most profitable track is either gulfstream or saratoga, due to some profit skewing big vertical waget wins.

I dont think ive ever won a bet at a cali track!

I love bitching and moaning. My problem is not handicaping, its money management, betting too many races, and betting for action.

The horse game is just a savings account that I am depositing into and I will cash out my share one day with a big hit.

Lately it seems as if my look at a horse during post parade gets me more $ than book capping.

Your last paragraph Walk is EXACTLY what i do...I call it poaching,but its really just pot shotting i guess. I use to explain to Kev or whoever his name is,that i was working on something and thats it. The magic eye never lies is what i say,and i have been killing it. I still have 15 PP's left from ordering them last July LOL...Its hard to post here before the race which horse i like by my observations in the post parade because i am seeing what im looking for before the jockeys mount that early,or when they 1st hit the track,but i am looking for specific manuerisms from horses and my roi on this is through the roof to be honest,and its wayy more fun for me. In recent i think it was the 7th at SA last Friday i hit an Agapitto Delgadio (ugg spelling) for $30 something to win,then the following day i saw him on a horse with the same indications i look for and hit it for $30 plus for the win...I am usually throwing $50 to $100 on this play,and trust myself completely doing this. I read about a man named Pittsburg Phil,and it changed everything for me about horse racing. The PP's are fantastic to show you what a horse has done,but what is going to happen race day is another story. When i do cap with PP's anymore it is for pk 6's,and i wont put my ticket in till i can see the 1st leg and the post parade because its the only race you have a chance to see or add to your ticket from your PP capping with sight as well.

Save trip as well Chromakey,have a blast man.

Found the article that changed everything for me,def worth the read fellas...And the one paragraph he said hit home exactly to me and when i stepped away for awhile to rethink how to make $$ at this game...."His secret was observation. He watched the horses warm up,and after much practice he learned how to determine the condition of the animal. This is he said "the twinsister of handicapping,and more important. In that respect the ordinary form handicapper,is so to say,handicapped. What may appear to be right on paper very,very often is wrong in the paddock."
http://www.drf.com/news/godfather-ha...d-game-forever

Would love to know what you look for in a horse on the track? Im trying to improve on this skill, but am finding a tough go of it, I look at the horses in the post parade and dont know what to look for. What are the best books in your opinion on this topic?

Hi pdiggz

I generally bet to win, but I get a lot of places and I should keep better records in the future to see if betting to place is more profitable. Now and then I bet Tri's, DD's and Pic 3's. I look forward to betting some Pic 6's, but I bet at the last second which can be very tricky. If I like a horse in a race, I can put contenders in the future races and bet a Pic 3, if it all looks right. I'm just starting to bet again and I'm getting better at trying to focus on getting my pics for later races. I used to have all the tracks going and handicap them just before the race would go off...pretty brutal grinding, but I'm getting better at throwing out races I have no right in betting.

I started going to the track when I was 15 with my brother betting Harness at Hazel Park and Windsor Raceway. I've been to some very shady tracks, not much in Michigan or Ohio, but Windsor Raceway is in Canada, so a nice change being in another country, great beer and friendly people! I did go to Pompano, but not in, like 30 years. One day I want to go to the great tracks like in New York, Kentucky, California and Florida...Too many to list.

I can't win at Golden Gate or some of the other really good tracks. I do have luck at Gulfstream and Tampa and other nice tracks, but it's strange that some tracks are just not winnable for me and I'm sure that I can turn a profit because of this. And with rebate shops returning up to 10% back for large enough bets, I know I can beat this game. Have to keep good records

I've been serious for 20 years averaging over 2 hours a day to find trends that work. I know I can make a profit, but don't know how much profit. Still not an easy game. I have more thoughts about Pic 6's as a smart way for anyone to bet which could be something I should look at in case trends change or I can't profit as much as I think that I can.

More on that later...

Hi TheWalk

I mentioned this a couple times in my last post, but I can't recommend this more than anything. It's very important to keep good records and records that you can understand Finding trends are difficult because there are so many variables to look at and it can be very hard to judge when any one variable works. Different tracks, takes, field sizes, type of races, odds off and on and on and on. Good understandable records are something you can always go back to. It sucks, but always try to record info as much as you can. One way is to have the race printed out and list the final odds and payoffs.

Once you find a trend on a maybe say a 2,000 race sample you can verify the trend on a new fresh different sample size, like maybe say about 1,000 to 1,500 races. Of course you would like to see a lot of results to be able to say the trend has a probable chance of working. 100 results is far better than 10 results, but how well the trend makes a profit is also a factor in making it more probable to work in the future as well. Sorry, I'm just rambling about stuff that I'm sure a lot you guys know.

Yeah, I can't beat most California tracks, still figuring that out.

Right and that is what I was gonna say about Pic 6's. Just a simple example on Pic 6's is even if you lose the take of around 17% in the long run and grind your bankroll into nothing, you can still have a chance at winning some money back. I don't have time to break this down like I should so be very cautious about this type of reasoning, but here it is. Most people will go to the track and win a little or bust. That 17% can grind down to nothing. Betting the Pic 6 is sorta like a forced saving plan.

If you have a payoff of $100,000 and you win it, you can invest that winnings into maybe the Vanguard S&P stock fund which returns on average over the long run, about 10%-12%. Remember though that you can have great swings and depending on your risk tolerance and objectives, if your young or older, but it will make the most money in the long run, but nothing is guaranteed. You can also switch it to the Vanguard Retirement fund at anytime as well as you get closer to retirement age and should accept less risk, you can still make a good return in the retirement fund as well. Alright, so much for the quick investment course.

So anyways you win $100,000 and pay maybe 30% in taxes which leaves you with $70,000 to invest at a 10% return per year is $7,000 then minus taxes around a net of $5,000 to spend at the track or whatever, per year and still have the nest egg. Much more thought needs to be done on this... Smaller payoff might make more sense. Bigger payoff it would be like buying a lotto ticket. You would want a reasonable chance of winning say 30 years of betting and have a good chance to hit like maybe 80%.

You can calculate things better knowing how much you will bet on this over 30 years, payoff amount of Pic 6 and odds of hitting Pic 6. I'm probably missing something, but you get the idea. But remember with a 80% chance of winning over 30 years, 1 out of 5 people will never win, so be careful about this thinking. These numbers are very rough and I'll try to improve on them or if anyone wants to add anything to this, Thanks!

Don't worry, I don't really post that much or this long

Just read part of the article and I think it can relate to what I was saying about betting on a horse when it goes off, under it's morning line. I believe that the horses connections have a feel for when their horse is running good and bet down the odds accordingly on the horse, but you have to be careful about this. The public can see a strong horse and bet it down as well, so there are other factors that I look at. Looks like a very cool article.

Very interesting thread! Good Luck to Everyone!

This is gonna carry over until someone wins the whole track. A ticket with two horses per leg cost over 26k, at 3 per leg is almost 39 million!

Pay The Line - first of all this is a good thread, with some good people and good handicappers, so stick around and its always good to have new people come in and contribute.

--losing at 6% puts you way ahead of most. so you are probably a few tweaks from getting to the plus side. sounds like you work on your game, too, which is key. improving your handicapping is an obvious thing. i myself am a pretty sucky handicapper. ive gotten better but im still mostly terrible. i'm a much better gambler than handicapper, lets put it that way.

--think outside the box some. sometimes, there is no value in the Win pool, but there is elsewhere. In the books by Beyer - he really shuns betting outside the Win pool, but the unwritten assumption here is a certain level of skill at handicapping. If you reach a certain skill level then you are hurting your return by betting outside of wins, no disagreement there. but not everyone is at that level, i'm not. also, just because something isn't optimal that doesn't mean it can't be profitable. to me value is value, even if its tiny, i'm happy to take it.

--i "race select" a lot. i look for certain things and if they aren't there i pass. i guess you'd say i have a strategy and find races that work well within that strategy. also, a lot of races i have no clue whats going on and i'd probably do just as well by rolling a dice or betting the horse with the best name - pass on these races. discipline is important for sure.

good luck everyone this wknd. looking forward to the Florida Derby on sat!

i didnt look into the math of it all, but i figured you'd have to single like 10 of the races to get a manageable ticket. i think i heard it was going to be a must pay, so if for ex, 14 is the most anyone wins then thats what will pay, no carryover. kind of curious how big the pool is going to be. my guess a lot of people will go to make a ticket for fun and then realize their ticket is going to cost like 50k.

Hey BK...Just got in had a great evening with my daughter. She is fulltime like my son at U of Michigan (proud poppa)

I am not sure i can verbally explain it to be honest,but i know it when i see it,but i will try my damnest to explain it. First i dont read and never had read a book on horseracing or handicapping in my life,and had only read that article about Pittsburg Phil,but it just made sense. Or used a spelling book for that matter LOL....Now with the bigger races its a SOB to differ between one fantastic animal and another. But for example: I am mostly a SoCal capper,and it just catches my eye when i see it when a horse is ready to run. It is almost like he/she is talking to me so to speak with his body language. I am looking for a horse on its toes and it just looks different than the rest of the field. I can watch the paddock and tell right away this horse wont,this one wont,but this one feels right and looks the part. Aain hard to verbalize but its on its toes,and specificaly if i ever see a horse on its toes with short quick chopping motions i go to the window with both hands,i see this maybe a handful of times a yr.

I will have not looked at any PP's or ML's,i dont know jack about the race for distance,i am just watching the horses in the walking ring,then the track. I just dont know how to explain it BK and i wish i could better. I wish i could watch a race with you and say see right there,but for the most part they are always on their toes. Milly Ball has an excellent eye imo and has been on horses seeing the same things i have myself,but i havent turned HRTV on in a couple years. I just could care less what anyone else has to say about a race. I enjoy the excellent break downs of races here by a lot of people,but put not an ounce of stock in it. I also going to my fellow Mi poster care about late $ early $ trainers $ or any of that. I know people who say they just play the tote,and more power to them. I trust my eye more than any capping tool i have. If a horse is 3/5 or 17-1 i bet it the same for the most part IF it fits the pattern warming up i am looking for,i am just betting what i think the winner is going to be. This is why i also got away from the PK4's and such,and only hit the PK 6 carrys. Sorry BK i know i probally cleared up nothing ,and did it with a bunch of words,but i will try tomorrow to show what i am talking about and post what horse i see that catches my eye if one does.

Now also BK i may go a few days before i see this. I can watch every warm up and post parade not see what im looking for and pass for the day and watch as a horse fan that i am. I really only watch Gulfstream and Santa Anita as well anymore when i am watching horses that day.

It's an absurd proposition. If there were a 50/50 chance that a single would win each race, it'd be like flipping heads 18 times in a row or 1 in 262,144.

hey yeah, i'm with you. and your math is right. i think its one of those things they thought - hey that would be fun w/o actually thinking much more about it. but if you ever filled out a pick6 you realize the cost of ticket goes up pretty damn quick.....and thats 6 races not 18.

^^^ If ur planning on playin this pick 18, keep in mind, the wager is only offered through amtote adw's, also, u cannot go to a teller to make ur wager, u must use a self service machine or bet online. Can u imagine the line at the teller window, when an 80 year old snow bird is tryin to call out his pick 18. I think gulfstream institutionalized the same rule for there rainbow 6 when betting on track they make u use a machine, except on mandatory payout day they will let u use a teller. Im not to keen on pick 18, however i am happy to see racing secretarys bolden up & experiment with new betting opportunitys, especially micro bets. Micros are obv the wave of our future. As they say in the form " Il b taking a wait & see approach" GL

I'll put the over/under for correct selections taking the pool down at 13 1/2.

Some things i love to see visually bout a horse in the post parade is no erratic head movement, a rhythmic gallop when they break away from there lead pony & the most important for me is a bowed kneck. The bowed kneck is an indication of a horse feeling really good, but not only that, its also an indication that the horse is waiting for his commands & that hes ready to run. For what its worth