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03-15-2012 , 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pray No More
So you'd lay 1000-1 on CC favorite over BB? Give you half off. 500-1? JKJK

Well I of course was being a wise guy ... but would easily lay 5/1. CC will clearly be the favorite if they meet again in SA Derby unless something happens etc.


I disagree. He was in the 2-path the whole way and didn't go to the whip until the stretch. Both horses ran their race perfectly, CC just beat him out (and got a slightly better trip).

Ehhh after re watching the clip I kinda agree with you. I wish it was more aggressive rider on Bode. RB is one of the best but I feel he is at the top when on closers or stalkers etc. He rarely ever does good on front runners. He usually whips the horse about 5> times 100%. Other guys like Talamo and Flores whip 20+ times which could matter in a stretch duel.



Not necessarily. Baffert can still punt the SA Derby. He's not afraid to enter a Triple Crown horse looking somewhat iffy.

Yeah true but Bode will come back in the SA Derby.



Careful, is all I'm saying.
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03-15-2012 , 08:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlwaysTwinNSpired
id b careful too imo. I dont think bodmeister is a derby horse, although u can usually expect better things from a horse making its 2nd start around 2 turns. I think theres a lil more sentimental attachment to this for bob b, then most. I dont think ul see bob tryin to force his way to the ky derb with this 1. He did that last year with midnite interlude & was on record saying he wished hed have give ML a better foundation b4 throwing him the biggest race of his life. IMO the most powerful statistic in the Ky Derby is that NO horse has ever won the KY Derby that didnt have atleast 1 start as a 2 year old. Even if they didnt win as a 2yo, its so vital to get that foundation built in the freshmen season. Easier said than done, any trainer will tell u, its not easy getting 1 to the gate at age 2, so much can go wrong. So im not sayin bob failed here, cos im sure theres good reasons y bode didnt start as a 2yo, im jus sayin, i wouldnt get too excited on this 1. But if any1 can do it, its baffert.
Yes that is a amazing stat. If anyone can do it...it's Baffert. He is the best trainer alive right now. Of course you have Bin Sour Saeed...Aiden O'Brien...Todd Pletcher...Steven A...are all getting very close or possibly passing him soon. Closest being Todd Pletcher.

However, Bob Baffert has been around the longest and has been on top the longest.
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03-15-2012 , 08:48 AM
Sorry just getting home from drunken night hopefully I didn't write to much stupid stuff. Picked out my plays before I went out and having wife bet them.

YTD +$40,850
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-15-2012 , 09:01 AM
$0.50 Pick 5

Race 1: 1,2,3,4,5
Race 2: 2
Race 3: 1,2,3
Race 4: 1,3
Race 5: 1,3,4,10,11

$75

$0.50 Pick 5
Race 1: 1,2
Race 2: 2,5
Race 3: 3,4,5,6
Race 4: 1,3
Race 5: 7,10

$32

$5 Pick 5
Race 1: 2
Race 2: 2
Race 3: 3,7
Race 4: 3
Race 5: 10

$10


$0.50 Pick 4
Race 5: All
Race 6: All
Race 7: 4,10
Race 8: 9

$99

Race 5: 10
Race 6: 8
Race 7: 4,5,6,9,10
Race 8: 1,2,3,9,10

$25


$20 Pick 4
Race 5: 5,10
Race 6: 8
Race 7: 4,13
Race 8: 9

$40.



RACE 7:
$225 WIN #4 KINGPIN RYNO



Best of luck to everyone.
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-15-2012 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JOsbourne
Sorry just getting home from drunken night hopefully I didn't write to much stupid stuff. Picked out my plays before I went out and having wife bet them.

YTD +$40,850
JO your good man,if we start eliminating stupid stuff being posted i know i for one would have almost no post count

Good luck on your plays
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03-15-2012 , 08:28 PM
^^^^^. $5 pick 5's & $20 pick 4's!!!!....... Weeeeeeeeeee!!! Sick individual u are JO
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03-15-2012 , 11:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlwaysTwinNSpired
^^^^^. $5 pick 5's & $20 pick 4's!!!!....... Weeeeeeeeeee!!! Sick individual u are JO
Well I know it sounds crazy but sometimes I have a feeling. And I don't have to worry about taking most of the pool or anything because SA has huge P4 pools...and if I do a $20 P4 it's less than $80...and it's usually chalk.
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-15-2012 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JOsbourne
$0.50 Pick 5

Race 1: 1,2,3,4,5
Race 2: 2
Race 3: 1,2,3
Race 4: 1,3
Race 5: 1,3,4,10,11

$75
Loss

$0.50 Pick 5
Race 1: 1,2
Race 2: 2,5
Race 3: 3,4,5,6
Race 4: 1,3
Race 5: 7,10

$32
Loss

$5 Pick 5
Race 1: 2
Race 2: 2
Race 3: 3,7
Race 4: 3
Race 5: 10

$10
Loss

$0.50 Pick 4
Race 5: All
Race 6: All
Race 7: 4,10
Race 8: 9

$99
Winner - $351

Race 5: 10
Race 6: 8
Race 7: 4,5,6,9,10
Race 8: 1,2,3,9,10

$25
Loss

$20 Pick 4
Race 5: 5,10
Race 6: 8
Race 7: 4,13
Race 8: 9

$40.
Loss


RACE 7:
$225 WIN #4 KINGPIN RYNO
Winner $495


Best of luck to everyone.
Wagered: $506
Total day: +$340

YTD + $41,190
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-16-2012 , 06:35 AM


GO KAUTO GO.

Heart is with Kauto Star obv for the Gold Cup, but the value pick looks to be Burton Port. Kauto is getting old now and Long Run seems a bit off form.
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03-16-2012 , 05:35 PM
He's All Heart had his first work of the year today breezing 3f in 37 flat, He returned to EMD a couple weeks ago and has been galloping regularly, after being loosened up on the farm in Yakima.

Heart has a chance to be his sires all time leading money earner this year !!! haha yes it won't hold probably since its a young sire, but the horse with greater earnings Zenovit, has never looked the same since sweeping the EMD/HST Oaks at 3.


This years handicap division could be one of the toughest ever, as a promising three year old bunch, makes there way into the older horse division. Including Couldabenthewhisky, who was the champion two year old, and Jebrica, three year old champ who actually won the BC Premiers against older horses at HST, b4 trying synthetic at GG against older horses to end the year.


Noosa Beach the perrenial champ, and dominating horse in the NW, will be skipping the George Royal at HST this year and pointing directly to the Governers in late may at EMD. Noosa Beach beat Jersey Town in the 2010 Longacres MIle G3, and was runner up last year to the ageless wonder Awesome Gem. Noosa Beach was nominated to the BC Mile last year, but could not participate due to a foot issue, but I know thats there goal for him again this year.

Winning Machine has already put in 4 registered works, I would guess they might enter in the George Royal, now that Noosa Beach isn't running, he was off form as a 4 year old but, returned last year to go 2-3-0 in 7 starts and earn 62k (really good for up here). He ran some game races, and definately took the shine off of Noosa Beach's dominating edge. Furthermore he has ran well over the HST surface, winning the G3 BC Derby at 3, and finishing 2nd last year in the BC Premier to Jebrica (trifecta was filled out by another EMD horse Assessment!)

Noosa Beach is one of the many promising foals to come out of the young sire Harbor the Gold, he has routinely churned out fast developing horses, and champions now in Washington and Oregon. He stands for 5500$ in Oregon.

Last edited by Sti1gar; 03-16-2012 at 05:40 PM. Reason: more to add
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03-17-2012 , 06:05 PM
race 6 in 2 minutes at santa anita man that 1 horse (noble kent) looks good 9 to 1 right now 20 wp on the 1 santa anita race 6
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03-17-2012 , 08:56 PM
Great race in the Rebel. Secret Circle came threw at even money giving Bob Baffert his 3rd straight win in the Rebel.

Secret Circle looked dead and didn't look like he was able to get up. Finishing time was 1:44:55. Not too bad. He did run faster than Smarty Jones in the Southwest but two seconds slower in the Rebel.

http://www.drf.com/news/oaklawn-park...ptimizer-rebel
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-17-2012 , 08:57 PM
Also...Havre De Grace came back in the New Orleans. Went off the same odds as Rachel Alexandra at 1/20. Won with ease. Paid $2.10/$2.10/$2.10
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-18-2012 , 03:34 AM


Check that ticket out.

So the first leg I hit a $52.00 horse. I had the 3 singled and naturally if he wins I have the night cap locked up with all and figure it pays at least $500>. So I figured hmmm let me maybe invest $100 on a horse that might be able to be the 3. Some how I missed this prior to betting and was saying hmmm... how is the #4.. 5/1? I went up and bet $100 on #4. Figure he wins I win $500. If #3 wins I get $500-XXXXX. If they both lose oh well. Sure enough the #4 wins.

In the nightcap horse won at 99/1! The pick 3 was $32,000. Figuring my way with the #3 winning who was 2/1...it's still at least $15,000+ probably the same thing.

Insane though. Still won good amount off that bet. But wish I saw the #4 sooner. Cannot complain though I've hit the Pick 6 for $4 and a few Pick 4's and Pick 5's this month.


CLIFFS. Had 6,7,8/3/ALL PICK 3.

Race 8:.. #8 won paid $52
Race 9:..Had the #3 @ 2/1 but #4 won at 5/1
Race 10:...#10 won at 99/1

Pick 3 paid $32,000.
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03-18-2012 , 03:47 AM
How much thought do you guys put into the gallop outs?

Do you guys think this was Secret Circle's "bounce" ?

Pegram sure sounded like he wanted him back for the Arkansas!


Good close by Musical Romance today very impressed.

Street Life could be an up and comer, but the time today wasn't pretty.

Secret Circle, not a great time, but got hte result, give him a chance in the Arkansas! (shouldn't be much shipping into it).
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-18-2012 , 04:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sti1gar
How much thought do you guys put into the gallop outs?

Do you guys think this was Secret Circle's "bounce" ?

Pegram sure sounded like he wanted him back for the Arkansas!


Good close by Musical Romance today very impressed.

Street Life could be an up and comer, but the time today wasn't pretty.

Secret Circle, not a great time, but got hte result, give him a chance in the Arkansas! (shouldn't be much shipping into it).
Well most say in the Breeders Cup Classic 2010 that Zenyatta was never beating Blame because she never passed Blame after the gallop out. Of course Zenyatta was the best horse in the race and the best horse that day even though she lost. And of course if that race was 1/16th longer Zenyatta would have won. I think the gallop has a bit to do with things...hard to say. Everyone has there own argument.

Tough call but I don't think it was his bounce. Distance did seem to be a bit of problem. But he is a great horse. Can lead and/or rate or anything and gets it done. Seemed very tired though in the last 1/16th and didn't look like a winner turning for home and in the stretch but grinded out the win and/or just beat a tiring Scatman.

Secret Circle will be coming back in the Arkansas.
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-18-2012 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sti1gar
How much thought do you guys put into the gallop outs?

Do you guys think this was Secret Circle's "bounce" ?

Pegram sure sounded like he wanted him back for the Arkansas!
I am not a fan of using the gallop out at all but others are. The TwinSpires blog played host to a debate on the topic last September.

http://blog.twinspires.com/2011/09/h...ling-with.html

As for Secret Circle, he never looked comfortable and still won. If he trains great over next four weeks then I'd like him again, but the Rebel was definitely a step backward.

EdD
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03-18-2012 , 07:50 PM
Thanks guys, that was a great article, appreciate it
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03-20-2012 , 03:06 AM
Castaway to go in Sunland Derby. Such a huge purse for a bad track.

Secret Circle only earned a 93 beyer. But excited to see him win the AD.

Union Rags getting ready to roll in the Florida Derby, should win.

Dialed In to have surgery on knee chip.

Also, Aqueduct Main Track is open.

Two Jockeys hurt and out... Dominguez atleast couple weeks and Paco Lopez atleast couple months.
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03-20-2012 , 11:57 AM
Sunland is a bad track, lolno, Sunland is awesome. no one bets there but they get some good races. and yeah, they must have some great sponsers, because purses are really big.

by the way El Padrino is probably going in the Florida Derby, last I heard at least. he is pretty big competition for Union Rags. Whoever comes out of that may well be Kentucky Derby favorite. Hansen is headed to the Wood, and it looks like his top competition is Gemologist and Prospective (won TB Derby). But not sure they rate particularly well vs. Hansen. We'll see. Def its a fun final ~6 wks leading up to May.
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03-20-2012 , 01:38 PM
New Mexico has racing year round at several different tracks (ALB, Zia, Sun), due in part to a successful racino plan, it has reallly elevated the level of racing. I'm surprised more horses don't ship from SoCal to NM.

Sunland is right on the NM/Texas border, so it draws from the El Paso area as well.
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03-22-2012 , 01:41 PM
Santa Anita 3/22/12

3.) 8-2-3
4.) 9-4-8
5.) 1-4-12
6.) 6-2-4
7.) 6-1-10
8.) 13-8-7

Today's card along with it being a PK6 carryover looks to be a great race card all around with some competitive races throughout. Put up the #13 ahead of the #8 in the night cap for our pal in the thread DC.

Personal note,no new flavors of cancer to deal with for almost a year,and was 265 lbs,now im 185 lbs. Just need to remember sometimes because i smell like ape dung i think im king kong
HORSE RACING THREAD Quote
03-22-2012 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by M.Honcho
Santa Anita 3/22/12

3.) 8-2-3
4.) 9-4-8
5.) 1-4-12
6.) 6-2-4
7.) 6-1-10
8.) 13-8-7

Today's card along with it being a PK6 carryover looks to be a great race card all around with some competitive races throughout. Put up the #13 ahead of the #8 in the night cap for our pal in the thread DC.

Personal note,no new flavors of cancer to deal with for almost a year,and was 265 lbs,now im 185 lbs. Just need to remember sometimes because i smell like ape dung i think im king kong
Great to hear, Honch! You are owning that ****ing cancer. Love to hear your positive attitude. I always get a smile when I look at the Horse Racing Thread and see M. Honcho as the last post!

I think Race 7 has tons of possibilities, if I play the pk4, I'm going to take a stand with a single in race 6, and go way deep in 7. gl!!!
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03-22-2012 , 06:12 PM
ugh. had 7 Kelly Leak and 9 Lamm in my big pk4 ticket.

I'm now alive to my $2 jobber:

1/4/6,10/7,9
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03-22-2012 , 07:47 PM
Thanks a lot Walk,very nice of you to say....Lots of stand up people itt for sure ...4/6 on my $54 PK6,got my singles home in the 3rd and 5th,missed my single by a head in the 7th,and missed on the nightcap.
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