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Old 02-21-2012, 07:33 PM   #5026
AlwaysTwinNSpired
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^^^^^ Im in, il b home in 30 mins & il start cappin the card. Lets make sum monies fellas
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Old 02-21-2012, 07:44 PM   #5027
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

will probably be playing some of the late races at CT. CT generally kicks me in the balls, though. preliminary look - i'd say 6,7 & 9 but maybe just the 6th and 9th, we'll see.
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:06 PM   #5028
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Shenadoah Moon taking a lot of early money for CT #1, but while I'm seeing solid works for a decent barn, it took the dam 5+ tries to break her maiden.

Like the #1 horse, cutting back in distance, While she hasn't shown much closing ability since 3 starts back, she does have the best foundation, Where as the 3 other favorites two are unraced, and one has made one start. I expect those three to contend on a hot pace, and hope that #1 has what it takes to clean up the mess in the stretch. Also hoping to get a decent price on the horse that has the fields best beyer (3-1 or better plz).

Last edited by Sti1gar; 02-21-2012 at 08:11 PM.
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:09 PM   #5029
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

whetting the whistle with race 1:

$4 Ex 5/1,2,4,7
$4 Win 2

$20 Total

Like the speed and fade in first race, then come back in next race angle.

looking at the pk4, looks like there could be some good value. going to post the early pk4 in a bit...
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:15 PM   #5030
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Its an angle I like as well, but how do you factor in the Muddy track in her first race? does that help play to speed or not?
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:23 PM   #5031
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWalk View Post
whetting the whistle with race 1:

$4 Ex 5/1,2,4,7
$4 Win 2

$20 Total

Like the speed and fade in first race, then come back in next race angle.

looking at the pk4, looks like there could be some good value. going to post the early pk4 in a bit...
good start. returned $57, with $20 wagered for a $37 profit
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:32 PM   #5032
AlwaysTwinNSpired
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Nice cappin walk^^^^
CT early P4 Race2
I see a .50c p4 paying anywhere between $225-$450 in this early sequence imho.
3,4
1,4,5,10
6
1,7,8,10
$16

3,4,
1,4,5,10
1,6,8,9
1
$16

Total $32
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:33 PM   #5033
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

going to have to single the first leg, since the next 3 have a ton of potential winners. this looks like a race for which the 3 and 4 will be duking it out. normally, I'd like to see if I can get a proven closer to rate well and scream past the speed. however, in this case, i don't know if any of the other horses qualify that criteria. maybe the 6 which had a bad trip last race and ended up rallying, but the PP for the 6 show no rally in any of his early races. don't see much pointing the 7, and the first time starter #2 has a good trainer and decent works, but I don't want to single a first-timer in this scenario. too much could go wrong. 3 or 4? outside horse have an edge? does the 3's stakes back class push him over the edge? hmm...
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:39 PM   #5034
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I was in that same diver walk, in the end i decided to use them both & play alternate single tickets. Like u said, the value looks to b in the las 3 races, so i figured using both to give me a lil more insurance to have that opportunity at value would b best play for me & using the alternate singles, it allows me to get away relatively cheap & it allows me to hit it twice.
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:39 PM   #5035
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

CT 50c EP4

2: 3,4

Seems to me to be clearly the two best horses in the race, if Miss Gold Buckle can't be placed more forwardly out of the gate, #4 Need to Dig a Hole will just run away with it.

#6 could be the danger as she had a horrid trip last time out, and still rallied to finish 3rd.

3: 1,4,8

Race 3: #1 could go off at a decent price after being the favorite in his last 3 races at this level, Last time out he was too high strung, and I'm throwing that race out. #4 Finishes much better on a dry track than a wet track, and his recent beyers are comparable to the beyer par. #8 has Acosta aboard who does very well at CT, he won last time out inw hat was his first attempt on the track, again a horse that is lightly raced compared to the rest of the field, and in that sense has more upside for a big performance.

4: 1,5,6

Race 4: #1 not a ton of speed in this field, so I'm hoping he will be able to set more moderate factions than what was asked of him last time, he held gamely on the 7th and only relinquished late. #5 been caught wide a bit his last two starts hoping the better post position will set him up better in the stretch. #6 2nd back off a layoff for a trainer who does decent in these situations 17%, could offer the price that makes this p4 profitable.

5: 1,6,7

Race 5: #1 has hit hte board in 16/20 starts at this distance, drops down in class, and 5 of his last 6 speed figures have beaten the par. #6 Throwing out his last start as it was in the slop, this horse wants no business with a wet track, over a limited sample size the trainer does ok with Route/Sprint horses, and his previous beyers are certainly in line with the rest of the field. #7 Loves the track lvoes the distance, 2nd time with jockey, and with trainer, Hoping for a mroe responsive horse in this race, 7/19 over the surface.

$27 dollars.
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Old 02-21-2012, 08:42 PM   #5036
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

R 2: 4
R 3: 1,5,7,10
R 4: 3,5,8,9
R 5: 1,2,4,7,8,10

after further review, looks like 3 isn't much early speed. going to see if 4 can wire it...

$48

insurance play

R 2: 3
R 3: 1,5,10
R 4: 3,5,8,9
R 5: 1,10

$12

$60 total

Last edited by TheWalk; 02-21-2012 at 08:44 PM. Reason: add insurance play
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:08 PM   #5037
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I guess I see who people decided to single......

Playing some small wagers on 1,4,5,10, 8 is going to have to prove to me that it can replicate its career best beyer, to justify that price.

Last edited by Sti1gar; 02-21-2012 at 09:14 PM.
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:15 PM   #5038
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

yup, Daily Double will pays are all promising except for the 8 horse...
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:20 PM   #5039
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Looks beaten turnin for home, but proved to b a better pig. Oh well
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:31 PM   #5040
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I've heard about David Wells a bit thanks to Rapid Redux, and how he uses CT and MTNR to place horses in favorable spots. maybe 8#s last race was his turn around race and his form will continue to improve. I certainly hope not!!!
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:33 PM   #5041
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

weird DD payouts for race 4. 8 looks like the sharp play...

anyway, finding value in the 3. has 3 wins all at the 7f distance. just came back to CT and has one race under his belt, for which he was fading after 3/4...

think he can put up a good race here...

$1 EX KEY BOX 3/ALL

$18
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:40 PM   #5042
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CT race 4
.50c supers
6,8 with 6,8 with all with 1,9

6,8 with 6,8 with 1,9 with all

6,8 with all with 6,8 with 1,9
$42


$2 tri 6,8 with 1,9 with 6,8
$8

Total $50
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:48 PM   #5043
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Hmmm. Im done for the nite guys. Ive been ice cold for over a week now. Prolly wont see me til saturday. Hope u all knockem dead
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:48 PM   #5044
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Ah dang nice try 1! almost held on.
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:58 PM   #5045
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

down $41 so far tonight...

Race 5:

$12WPS #7
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Old 02-21-2012, 10:00 PM   #5046
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

50c LP4
ALL
2,6,9
1,4
1,8,9

72$

and that is it for me! good night guys
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Old 02-21-2012, 10:01 PM   #5047
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Also:

$5WPS on #4
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Old 02-21-2012, 10:09 PM   #5048
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I have an exacta 6,7 w/ all, lets see how it plays out here.... Both are going off at favorable odds imo, given past performances. Throw out 6's last race in the slop and he has shown consistant performances.


Cold like an iceberg today haha!
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Old 02-21-2012, 10:14 PM   #5049
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

The Wynn has all updated odds for Kentucky Derby horses. Anyone who would like to know odds on a certain horse ask and I'll tell you.
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Old 02-21-2012, 10:23 PM   #5050
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

late pk4...

3/1,2,9,10/1,7/1,2,8-10

$20

5/2,9/1,7/8

$2
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