I've never know Velasquez as a trainer to really push a horse unduly, or who wasn't ready to run, furthermore Velasquez always does a good job with the older horses, and as a trainer I see him do quite well at the mile distance (might be selective memory) but when I see Velasquez with an older horse, racing at a mile thats an instant check mark for me in the positive.

I don't have the form for the 26th, but from a quick peek at the horses in this race, it looks like Mangold's the one who will go to the lead, D Devil typically sits right off the lead, but neither have ran at a mile lately.

This race could set up well for Form a Posse and West Seattle Boy (rains predicted for monday, WEST SEATTLE BOY LOVES IT WET AND SLOPPY) , two vets who are battle tested, and proven closers at a mile. All comes into question whether or not Mangold gets a little pressure from D Devil, but if Mangold can settle........he could carry it to victory.

I would pass on D Devil. If he was a little more consistant in the stretch with his style of run I might play him but otherwise its hit and miss, and that doesn't bode well for adding 2 furlongs.

I'm not so much worried about the race load, I don't see a recorded work for D Devil in the past 60 days, could be he doesn't train as well now that he is older, and gets bored by it so they lighten up the training load, and just put him through some light gallops, than race him on the weekend. Carries a heavy race total year after year (except for 08 when injured).

Kauto Star GOAT

interesting stuff, Sti1gar. after a look at PP i think Fresh Mangold will have a very easy time getting the lead; should clear and set the pace no problem. can he go a mile, we'll see? i think West Seattle Boy will have some trouble though. pace should hurt him a lot. the #4 horse It's Our Pleasure should win. 4-2-6-3.

in race 5, Sweet Pleasure could probably trip and fall, get back up and still win. some seriously poor horses in that race. BRIS speed figs has Sweet Pleasure at 74,74,68,73 last 4 races, no other horse has ever broken 60 lifetime.

Santa Anita 12/26/11 Opening Day

1.) 6-3-1
2.) 6-4-10
3.) 8-9-4
4.) 9-2-5
5.) 6-10-7
6.) 5-12-11
7.) 8-2-5
8.) 8-4-1
9.) 4-8-6

Today's card looks to have some value early and late imo.

early pk 4 SA

R 2: 5,6,10
R 3: 2,8
R 4: 1,2,6,7,9,10
R 5: 1,6,7,9

$72 total

Sweet Pleasure did get claimed, and won the race by like a quarter mile.

Playing this Santa Anita card a little today - got screwed over pretty good by the 80-1, but got a few races I like here. I'm mostly playing doubles, but a few pick 3s, and the late pick4.

Race 5:
I'm got small doubles 6-10 / 5-11 acting as saver bets, and have my bigger play with 8-9 / 5-11, biggest on the 11 Kelly Leak in the 6th trying to hit something good.

SA Pick4:

6) 5 - 11
7) 2 - 7 - 1
8) 4 - 8
9) 8 - 4 - 2

HOL Late Double

$4..2 with 4,5,6,8

$10 8 with 4,8

$36 total bet.

OK lets try to beat this chalk at SA...not likely, but don't need to bet much here to score if you can beat him.

$4 DD Race 7: 2 / 8-4
$8 DD Race 7: 8 / 8-4

$10 DD Race 7: 2-8 / 2

wow, sick close by Mr. Commons in the Sr Beaufort.

I mean SA in my last post...

HOL Race 9

$40 Win on #4
$1 Ex Key Box 5/ALL = $18 total
$5 Ex 8 with 4,6 = $10 total

$68 total bet.

I like the bets, TheWalk, esp on #8 . fade The Factor, imo.

lolz, wow, never mind.

I tried to figure out how many claims were put in on Sweet Pleasure, but alas the PM website is severely out of date in that regard.

Quick question on American horse racing because in every international meet, i never really get to see the super star American horses like Dream Ahead, Strong Suit, Tizway etc.

Why aren't they targeted for the big meets other than Dubai? The Arc, The Melbourne Cup, Royal Carnival at Ascot, Honk Kong, Japan etc. i always watch the meets and like to see how our Australian horses hold up if we have a runner but despite the Europeans being the big dogs in racing at the moment, i always think of the US as the big kahuna and like to see how they race and their style.

Obviously people on here cannot give me a definitive, in depth answer, but reading through there seems to be enough interest to let an American racing noob like myself understand how big horse racing really is in America.

Cheers in advance.

i would guess it comes down to money. dubai has some races with really gigantic purses, which probably offsets travel costs. so some make the trip. there is tons of races in the US, which have big purses and would require very little travel. With those available why travel?

also aren't most of these international races run on turf? in the US like 90% of races are run on dirt and our best horses run on dirt.

Indeed they are which is probably the biggest factor that i overlooked. Dubai is run on the dirt which explains it.

Thanks for the answer. We have zero exposure to the American racing scene here, which is amusing as we get South Africa, SE Asia, UK & Ireland and even the Nordic states funnily enough amongst a few more.

I hope to someday be able to watch a horse attempt to conquer the world so to speak, and try and win major races in all the large jurisdictions. I always try to catch the major races coming out of AUS, JPN, HK,FR and the UK, but yeah I wish there were more horses going that way.

Another issue for USA anyway is that all the best horses (well most anyway) are retired before they can peak. You don't see great racehorses in their 5 year old campaign anymore.

Lonhro is now shuttling and standing the in Kentucky, this could be good, because he had a great turf background with a powerful body. I'm excited to see what his stock can bring to the table.

Lonhro, what an equine beast.

I entirely agree with you but the stakes in breeding are too high for a horse, no matter their ability, to be risked overseas and raced in multiple continents. It's a darn shame because i think there are many horses with the potential to win a lot of races in multiple nations. There seems to be a common trend that favours keeping horses in their own region and dominating the competition. Thankfully, that is changing somewhat considering the amount of European stars coming to Australia and Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore etc. despite the strict quarantine laws in Australia.

The only horse that could of taken on the world to come out of Australia is Black Caviar. No former Aussie horse could match her record should she go overseas. I was there at Randwick on TJ Smith Stakes Day and i got shivers seeing her chase down one of the best sprinters in the world. It's my opinion, she is the only horse who could of beaten Hay List that day.

Unfortunately, that looks so unlikely given her injury record and her 100% win rate. The owners will be desperate to maintain it.

Black Caviar is coming to Europe next year. At least I could have sworn I heard that during last season.

Would pay some money to see Frankel vs Black Caviar.

Reading between the lines from their trainer, i don't think she will. They'll race one more year in Australia, try her over the 1400 and then call it a day with her record in tact as the greatest horse ever in Australia.

The owners were adamant that their main goal was to travel to Ascot to race, but thus far nothing has come of it.

Frankel v Black Caviar has enough lure in it to take the risk for the big bucks. A one million pound/dollar first prize would easily be made up from the publicity it would receive.

Wonder what the market would be...

Santa Anita - Race 2

#5 Boat Trip (6/1 ml)

Michael Pender trainee ran pretty close against a strong field in his debut despite a horrible post-draw, then ran well again in his second start while splitting today's 3/1 co-second-choices Zackn'mat and Fed Biz. Seems to have more speed than most of these and should get a favorable trip up front, either taking the lead himself or sitting just off the flank of Where's Henry. Also note that Pender has excelled when going sprint-to-route, hitting at 24% for a huge flat-bet profit over the last couple of years. This horse has started at huge prices in both career starts thus far, thanks mainly to the low-profile connections, and should be a very fair price once again while looking like a very serious contender to these eyes. Expecting a good run.

Boat Trip ran 4th.

woodbine afternoon standardbred card, last time I posted a bunch of exotics only to find out later half of my horses had been scratched before the post. I will post ideas instead of actual full on tri and super wagers. I will post a P4 pick for the guaranteed pool.

Race 1 - #5 Tad the stud, exotic considerations: 3,4,7,8

Race 2 - #4 Panmunjom , exotic consideration: 2,6,7,8

Race 3 - #3 illusionsndremas, exotic considerations: 6,8

Race 4 - Start of Early Pick 4
4: 4,5,8
5: 1,3,5,9,10
6: 3,6,7
7: 2,4,5,7