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Old 07-24-2009, 10:56 PM   #451
M.Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by centaurmyth View Post
Honcho, you might be happy to know that Rags to Riches produced her first foal, a filly, in early March of this year. Instead of going straight to breeding, maybe she makes it out to the race track? If so, I'll be in her corner for sure...
Yes i was aware,but thank you. I read that as much as DRF. I had a clunker of a day today. It actually went the way i thought prices wise,but i had the wrong crooked numbers. Think Kev calls it right church,wrong pew or some *****,lol. Big carryover for tomorrow in pk6 pool,about 350k,will have to take a look.
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Old 07-25-2009, 01:23 AM   #452
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by M.Honcho View Post
As for the ML and DRF free pp question. Kevroc does it similar to myself,i use DRF basic PP's,no ML on them,i will cap my races with no ML info at all,after im done i will go back and mark my sheets in the upper left corner my value range i have against the ML. When i have a few marks in my upper left corner then i know i have value in consecutive races,and play DD or pk3's accordingly. I do not know how to get free PP's other than thru Youbet,or Twinspires,i just prefer DRF.
Yup, and sometimes I give each horse a % chance to win and then I use this tool that is on the Del Mar website.. (at least it was, i think it still is).. to punch in the %'s and it derives an odds.

Then find value.
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Old 07-25-2009, 03:57 PM   #453
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Del Mar 7/25/09

1.) 5-3-6
2.) 9-2-12
3.) 7-10-2
4.) 5-2
5.) 9-1-5
6.) 4-11-3
7.) 5-10-7
8.) 1-8-6
9.) 5-6-2
10.) 10-14-5

I like todays card,looks like great value all the way around,and if im right today it will pay nice. I am going to play the pk3 races 5-7 3x for $81 investment there. I really like what these 3 races offer value wise. Not exactly sure what route i want to go yet on the pk6.
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Old 07-25-2009, 06:33 PM   #454
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by M.Honcho View Post
Del Mar 7/25/09

1.) 5-3-6
2.) 9-2-12
3.) 7-10-2
4.) 5-2
5.) 9-1-5
6.) 4-11-3
7.) 5-10-7
8.) 1-8-6
9.) 5-6-2
10.) 10-14-5

I like todays card,looks like great value all the way around,and if im right today it will pay nice. I am going to play the pk3 races 5-7 3x for $81 investment there. I really like what these 3 races offer value wise. Not exactly sure what route i want to go yet on the pk6I'.
I've had my eye on #3 Trumpet Player Jay for a little bit. Morning Line 15-1 in Race 5 at Del Mar. He's going to be involved in many of my bets.
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Old 07-25-2009, 10:27 PM   #455
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by M.Honcho View Post
Del Mar 7/25/09

1.) 5-3-6
2.) 9-2-12
3.) 7-10-2
4.) 5-2
5.) 9-1-5
6.) 4-11-3
7.) 5-10-7
8.) 1-8-6
9.) 5-6-2
10.) 10-14-5

I like todays card,looks like great value all the way around,and if im right today it will pay nice. I am going to play the pk3 races 5-7 3x for $81 investment there. I really like what these 3 races offer value wise. Not exactly sure what route i want to go yet on the pk6.
Looks like you hit the pick 3!!! Well done!
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Old 07-26-2009, 12:54 AM   #456
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Yes i did,thank you. I also played 2 DD's there also,which i normally do,especially Del Mar,paid decent. Was total profit $759.80 on the day with the pk3 hit x3,and the 2 DD's. Worked out like i thought in those 3 races.
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Old 07-26-2009, 02:44 AM   #457
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I've had my eye on #3 Trumpet Player Jay for a little bit. Morning Line 15-1 in Race 5 at Del Mar. He's going to be involved in many of my bets.
Had him wheeled in exacta, front and back for $4 each way, plus some other DDs. I'm a head bob away from collecting a $250 profit. Instead lost like $70 bucks. Oh well. I still think this is a great horse for future plays. Keep ur eye on him. Trust me.
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Old 07-26-2009, 10:52 AM   #458
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Yes i did,thank you. I also played 2 DD's there also,which i normally do,especially Del Mar,paid decent. Was total profit $759.80 on the day with the pk3 hit x3,and the 2 DD's. Worked out like i thought in those 3 races.
WTG Honcho, I didnt play even though there was a massive Carryover.

Just sitting on the sidelines for now.
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Old 07-26-2009, 10:58 AM   #459
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

hey, i'm an east coast guy, and semi-novice at the horse playing. what is the relationship between Del Mar and Hollywood? It seems as if only one is running at a time, but they both offer the big carryover Pick 6s, big $$ guaranteed pick 4s. How long does Del Mar last? Is it like Saratoga, only open for a few months? During this time does Hollywood sit out?

I went on the website, it looks absolutely beautiful. Hollywood Park is nice too, but Del Mar looks off the charts nice. Is it? I've been to a few race tracks in my day, Monmouth Park is the nicest I've been to;
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Old 07-26-2009, 12:41 PM   #460
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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hey, i'm an east coast guy, and semi-novice at the horse playing. what is the relationship between Del Mar and Hollywood? It seems as if only one is running at a time, but they both offer the big carryover Pick 6s, big $$ guaranteed pick 4s. How long does Del Mar last? Is it like Saratoga, only open for a few months? During this time does Hollywood sit out?

I went on the website, it looks absolutely beautiful. Hollywood Park is nice too, but Del Mar looks off the charts nice. Is it? I've been to a few race tracks in my day, Monmouth Park is the nicest I've been to;
They rotate venues in the So Cal circuit,Santa Anita meet,then Hollywood,then Del Mar,then Oaktree @ Santa Anita,etc...

I have never been to any California track yet as crazy as that sounds,ofcorse knowing my situation maybe not,lol,but they look beautiful on tv. The pk6 is a bet i like to target,its very challenging,and the pools get way bigger on the West side,compared to the East side,except Saratoga,nice pk6 carrys there.

I didnt play the pk6 yesterday with the huge carry,because i was hoping by the card it would carry again for a huge 2 day pk6,didnt happen,i wouldnt of had Global Hunter in the ER anyways.

I think the horse you like is decent,named after Jay Cohen the trumpet player at Santa Anita,and Hollywood Park. If you dont know how to use a virtual stable take a few to learn how to use this option,Youbet, Twinspires,and Equibase offer it for free,it will keep you up to date on your horses works and placings.
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Old 07-26-2009, 06:06 PM   #461
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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hey, i'm an east coast guy, and semi-novice at the horse playing. what is the relationship between Del Mar and Hollywood?
Same deal as Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga. A circuit.
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Old 07-26-2009, 09:24 PM   #462
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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They rotate venues in the So Cal circuit,Santa Anita meet,then Hollywood,then Del Mar,then Oaktree @ Santa Anita,etc...

I have never been to any California track yet as crazy as that sounds,ofcorse knowing my situation maybe not,lol,but they look beautiful on tv. The pk6 is a bet i like to target,its very challenging,and the pools get way bigger on the West side,compared to the East side,except Saratoga,nice pk6 carrys there.

I didnt play the pk6 yesterday with the huge carry,because i was hoping by the card it would carry again for a huge 2 day pk6,didnt happen,i wouldnt of had Global Hunter in the ER anyways.

I think the horse you like is decent,named after Jay Cohen the trumpet player at Santa Anita,and Hollywood Park. If you dont know how to use a virtual stable take a few to learn how to use this option,Youbet, Twinspires,and Equibase offer it for free,it will keep you up to date on your horses works and placings.
thank you. i use youbet, and just figured out how to track my horses. thanks for the tips!

i thought trumpet player jay ran a great race yesterday too just got nipped at the end.

thanks again.
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Old 07-27-2009, 02:07 AM   #463
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Anyone watch TVG 10 year celebration? They were showing all highlights past 10 years. I gotta upload the race onto youtube how hilarious.

They were interviewing Joe Pesci...he said, "Trainer asked me if he could name a horse after me, I said sure and then said well I might as well get a piece of the horse named after me anyways." So Pesci bought the horse and the horse was running at Hollywood Park.

Vic Stauffer the track annoucer at Hollywood Park, they were at the top of the stretch and Pesci was looking good. Vic Stauffer said, "As they reach the top of the stretch Pesci is going to be a Leathal Weapon." Mid stretch, "Pesci is acting like a Raging Bull here." They Pesci starts to draw off and is home..."And Pesci is on his way to the Casino! And Pesci is all Home Alone!
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Old 07-28-2009, 07:33 PM   #464
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

What do you think...

-would be an honest price on Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell?
-her odds will be at post time?
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Old 07-28-2009, 08:03 PM   #465
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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What do you think...

-would be an honest price on Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell?
-her odds will be at post time?
3/5 or 4/5 nothing less possibly more. You will not see 1/5 or less not a chance.

This year’s renewal of the 1 1/8-mile race is expected to draw the Preakness winner filly Rachel Alexandra, the Belmont Stakes champion Summer Bird as well as Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, multiple graded stakes winner Munnings and Monmouth Park stakes victor Bunker Hill. Duke of Mischief, who won the Iowa Derby last out, is considered possible for the race.


The main reason being that she won't be very short odds is because who she is running against. You won't get no 6:1 odds on Belmont Stakes winner therefore, Rachel odds will be about 1:1. They will be playing Munnings and possibly Bunker Hill who likes the track.

I think you will get about 4:1 on Summer Bird and 1:1 or 6:5 on Rachel. Not sure Munnings odds will be maybe 8:1...longer prices on Papa Clem and rest.
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Old 07-28-2009, 08:08 PM   #466
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Just did my research and this is what the morning line odds expected to be.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/pro...s_odds_replays

Rachel Alexandra 6:5
Summer Bird 5:2
Munnings 3:1
Atomic Rain 6:1
Duke Of Mischief 12:1
Papa Clem 12:1
Bunker Hill 20:1

Seems about right
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Old 07-28-2009, 08:12 PM   #467
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I will be playing a Rachel Alexandra/Munnings exacta.

If RA goes at even money that seems like a solid bet.
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Old 07-28-2009, 10:05 PM   #468
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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I will be playing a Rachel Alexandra/Munnings exacta.

If RA goes at even money that seems like a solid bet.
Yes I would agree and will jump on board with nice win bet on RA at 4/5 or better...even 3/5. I don't play chalk but this horse at that price seems good. But I think its the logical play and everyone will be betting this horse and using him so its possible he can be bet very low.

What do you guys think her off odds will be?
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Old 07-28-2009, 10:33 PM   #469
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Yes I would agree and will jump on board with nice win bet on RA at 4/5 or better...even 3/5. I don't play chalk but this horse at that price seems good. But I think its the logical play and everyone will be betting this horse and using him so its possible he can be bet very low.

What do you guys think her off odds will be?
I think she could go anywhere from 3/5 to 7/5.
Will be sitting at the computer at go time I guess since I don't bet futures.
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Old 07-28-2009, 11:52 PM   #470
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

It's finally here: Saratoga! A pilgrimage I have made for almost two decades...

Race 9
Looking for Decelerator to take the Schuyerville (regardless of those summer squalls that can blow through). This would be the 8th time Lukas wins this race. Looking for odds more than 7-2 in a contentious 13 horse field. Gonna box her in exactas with Beautician and Cowgirl Mally as well.

Anyone have any other thoughts on the card?
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Old 07-29-2009, 07:49 AM   #471
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Was listening to "At The Races" on Sirius yesterday and the guy they had on was pushing Decelerator hard. He expected Hot Dixie Chick to be overbet and was expecting that to result in a good betting opportunity on Decelerator. YMMV.
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Old 07-29-2009, 07:56 AM   #472
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Without doing any deep research on the Haskell, you have to like Summer Bird's chances. He won the Belmont (1 1/8m) and RA wouldn't even run it and was giving up a lot of ground when she won the Preakness. I don't think RA can go the distance.
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Old 07-29-2009, 12:10 PM   #473
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Without doing any deep research on the Haskell, you have to like Summer Bird's chances. He won the Belmont (1 1/8m) and RA wouldn't even run it and was giving up a lot of ground when she won the Preakness. I don't think RA can go the distance.
Huh? Now there's a headscratcher.
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Old 07-29-2009, 01:11 PM   #474
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Papa clem is a decent value play at 12 to 1, right? He will be included in any of my exotics.

Don't know much about m
Munnings yet. Bunker Hill loves the MTH track, but I just don't see it with this field.

If you've ever been to monmouth for a haskell, then you know how upset I am that I won't be able to make it this year. Great place, great time, bring your own food and beer. Just an overall great day if the weather holds up. Damn friends and their weddings!!!
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Old 07-29-2009, 03:23 PM   #475
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Without doing any deep research on the Haskell, you have to like Summer Bird's chances. He won the Belmont (1 1/8m) and RA wouldn't even run it and was giving up a lot of ground when she won the Preakness. I don't think RA can go the distance.
You certainly haven't done any deep research.

The Belmont was 1 1/2 miles. It's very possible 1 1/8 is too short for Summer Bird. RA's last two races at 1 1/8 were a 20 length win and a 19 length win (in which she broke the stakes record, despite being eased at the end). If Summer Bird wins, it definitely won't be because the distance favors him.
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