and im out in the 1st leg

cool story i thought
http://www.drf.com/news/gambler-plays-last-hand-flair

is this sport beatable? which has more EV.. straight bet or every other kind of bet?

The race is beatable. You & every1else will have trouble beating the races. It takes loads of discipline & hard work. Possible

I agree. I've know old gamblers, and happy gamblers, but not many old, happy gamblers...But horseracing gamblers can always comfort themselves with the fact that the game--regardless of the results--is beautiful.

You should definitely go. It's a great time at the track. Beautiful women, food, drinks, gambling...what more do you want? lol

Which track are you closest to? That will make a difference on your experience, but if you say Delmar is closest - go immediately. You'll be glad you did.

looking for a book recommendation from my horse racing buds. Any suggestions are fine, doesn't have to be about horse racing. I only read non-fiction.

Thanks.

Amarillo Slim in a world full of fat people

Today at Suffolks 4th race they bet 80k to show on the #8 horse, Mountaineers 1st race they bet 78k to show the #5..


Suffolk total show pool $87,477
#8 $79,542 to show. payoff=$2.20
#1 $2,463 to show. payoff=$2.40
#2 $1,523 to show. payoff=$3.00
total show pool payout=$92,735
Tracks total loss $5,258

Mountaineer total show pool$87,623
#5 $77,951 to show. payoff=$2.20
#6 $1,314 to show. payoff=$4.20
#4 $1,966 to show. payoff= $3.40
Total show pool payout=$91,847
Tracks total loss$4,224

Whats interesting is the whole $2.20 payoff, Iowa, Mass, west va are the only states i know of the that by law have a mandatory min $2.20 payoff /$2 bet

The only way these 2 horses were not gonna hit the board is a breakdown or a takedown. The suffolk race took 10 mins to go official, it was like the stewards were trying to find anything to DQ the horse. I remember reading about a guy on xspressbet that got his accnt taken away for makn show bets like these. I really wonder why any1 would make such a large wager at tracks outside of these 3states. $2.10 is a big dif from $2.20 when ur makin $70k wagers. Lol Jus wanted to share this stuff, it intrigues me. The few people that r makin these wagers are exploiting the system in a legal way. We jus need to b there everytime they make these bets cos with % show pool payoff, example todays mountaineer race1, there were 8 horses, if u make a $2 all show tix it costs $16, u would have gotten back $9.80 losing $6.20, however, if the #8 doesnt hit the board, ur gonna get around $500+ back (guestimate), which means, we only need to b right 1 out of every 80 to b prifitable. Where as the 70k show bettor has to b right 11 out of 12 times. (i think i got that right)lol

The Horse that God Built - Scanlan
The 50th Law - Greene
Black Hawk Down - Bowden


both of these are quite interesting, he makes you think alot, I had to read and re-read a lot going through these

Fooled by Randomness - Taleb
and The Black Swan - Taleb

Also, the book The Greatest Generation by Brokaw really made me realize how easy many of us have it today, and the things people went through before us. My Dad made me read that when it first came out and I have re-read it more recently, and it is very good.

Just a few I have read or re-read in the last year or so that I thought were good or thought provoking. If anyone wants to PM me with a good book or whatever as well please feel free.

Fooled by Randomness seems right in my wheelhouse. Thanks.

Toga pick 4
4,8
1,7
2,3,8
1,2,4,9,10
$30

del race 4

$5 WPS #4

ytd-(636)

delmar pick 4
.50c
11
4
1,2,3,5,7,8,9
1,2,7,8,10,11,14
$21

$1 PICK 4
11
4,5,6,7
4
1,2,7,8,10,11,14
$28
TOTAL $49
ytd -(685)

adding
pick4 .50c

1,3,9
4
4
1,2,7,8,10,11,14

$10.50
ytd-(696)

ah ic. Well i've been at it for a few visits and whenever I look at the program it has a lot of stats to look at for each race. The ones i've been paying attention to are: moving up/down in class, what were the odds when they placed well or placed poorly, the place in each segment of the race, their speed (i'm still not sure how to calibrate the significance of this since every horse in a race shows the same #'s like 201-207 or 151-156), and finally the early line movement if it's a big drop. I wanted to ask you which of these is not important, or what I should be focusing on since I'm a beginner at this stuff.

Delmar Race 8

$10WPS #11

Everything u mentioned is something you should be utilizing for every race, but IMHO, Pace is what makes the race. Be a visonairy, found out whos gonna get the lead out of the gate, and how fast the horse is gonna have to run to get the lead, if you think that horse can get the lead without over exerting too much energy, then the horse should b considered as a major player, but if you think the horse thats gonna get the lead out of the gate is gonna have to work to hard to get the lead and over exert himself, then you need to start looking at horses that benefit from a hot disputed pace and like to close. There are many variables that go along with this thinking, but start with that and see where it takes you. BTW after ur done capping, you need to ask urself if theres value there.. is it worth the bet...

very good writeup twin. I think you're pointing me in the right direction as I tend to agree with pace being a great angle for picking a horse with value. sometimes it pisses me off when i see something at 12:1 and when i go to put in the bet at 1 MTP it's down to 8:1. BTW, is there any difference between posting my bet right away versus right at the closing time? In other words, do you think in the long run if I post earlier it might decrease the line further as compared to posting the bet later itlr? Sometimes I get bored and fire 1k on a horse at the track and itll drop the line drastically which kills the value, but if I put things into exactas or trifectas it doesnt move the line as much. If I'm betting too big that it kills the line, would it be more +EV when betting that big to just fire on exactas/etc since the line won't change as much thus having a higher chance at keeping the line I bet at?

FormScore.Com is giving away free sheet PP's tomorrow. I don't play without them. Better deal than paying $25 for Thorograph.

1st off, IMHO, u should only b making 1k wagers @Keeneland, Churchill, Belmont, Saratoga, Gulfstream, Hollywood, Santa Anita, Delmar, Breeders Cup day, & Pimlico on preak weekend. IMO it doesnt matter when u place wagers that large if ur stickn to these tracks above, but it does remind me of my early days at hoosier park, i was 18, hoosier had only been open a few yrs & indiana was clueless to tbred racing. Jon Court would ride a min of 3 winners a nite back then, hes was literally automatic, only prob was HP would have bout $1,500 in there win pool each race, made it tough to get value, but nobody knew how to handicap n indy back then, they would jus bet the board, once we figured that, we would handicap the races way n advance & bcos there was little $ in the win pool, my buddy & i would make $80 win bets on the horse that looked like it should b 3rd or 4th fav & a minute prior to the race going off, we would cancel our tickets & bet the 1 we thought was gonna win. This made us a few xtra $'s, but n the end it wasnt worth trouble. You wont have to wrry bout it too much if u stick to the big pools. With that being said, u really shouldnt b playn 1k exactas imo, ur really jus playn against urself. Theres never much reason to ever play anything over a$200 EX. Thats jus my opinion. Best of luck

Oh. I was betting at yonkers raceway (NY) for the last month and haven't found success yet. Hah it seems like you really had your way with the tracks back then and had an edge on everyone. I'm glad that you helped explain how exacta pools work b/c I had no idea really. So, how is this thread so huge but I barely recognize anyone in here? Seems interesting

I wouldnt say i had it my way, otherwise id be lving in a sick house in thailand..lol.. but i do often here oldtimers sayin the game was more beatable back in the day.. My opinion on that is, back in the day, when u went to the track, you only had that track to bet, there was no simulcasting. So u could focus all ur time on that track. You could bet WPS, and later on there was a late double, those were ur only betting options. The pools were huge, the grandstands were packed with thousands of people, horse racing meant something back then, not too mention a $2 win bet was alot bigger than it is now..lol Imagine only being able to bet WPS, at only 1 track, and the horses ur betting on arent doped up. Just saying it like that, makes me think it was easier to beat back then.
Theres some really good folks in this read, gentlemen like, The Walk, M. Honcho, Bluegrass cat, Vetiver, Kevroc and many more. Any1 of these folks are capable of a big score. Stick around, u will learn quite a bit, and u might jus make a nice score. GL

Ive searched the internet all morning for the match race between P. Val vs. Julie Krone at delmar.. I dont know the exact year, but i do know it was the year Julie won the Pac Classic and i cant find the video anywhere!!! Any1 have an idea where i could find it?

yonkers is pretty ghetto. if you want a long drive hit up saratoga or a decent sized drive go to monmouth

acqueduct/belmont are good when they're open

rankings are prolly
1) saratoga
2) belmont
3) acqueduct
4) monmouth
5) yonkers