HORSE RACING THREAD - Page 133 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Churchill Downs Oaks Day Late PK4

8.) 1-3-4-7-8
9.) 4-5-6-7
10.) 1-2-3-12-13
11.) 1

Ticket $100

Ok,up almost $100 on 1st 2 races,Diva Ash paid decent,so taking a shot and being a JV believer in the last.

LOL,dang DC nice write up,didnt see it in my rush to get my picks in earlier today. We obv were on the same horse in the 7th,nice DC

Last edited by M.Honcho; 05-06-2011 at 03:03 PM. Reason: for DC

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05-06-2011 , 02:51 PM

#3302

SimonBarSinister

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,588

Nice job DC, winner winner chicken dinner.

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05-06-2011 , 02:56 PM

#3303

TripleH68

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 6,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiscreetCat

Churchill - Race 7 ***TURF ONLY***

#2 Diva Ash (8/1 ml)

Talented young grass filly by Tapit...

Wow. Confident gate to wire winner. Thanks for the pick!

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05-06-2011 , 02:57 PM

#3304

TheWalk

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,599

Holiday Flare in the 8th for me. Im still stuck at work, so no write up on why, sorry.

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05-06-2011 , 04:08 PM

#3305

SimonBarSinister

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,588

Gone with Giant Oak in the Alysheba. Tough race with alot of multiple winners.

Caracortado scratched out of turf race tomorrow to run here, must use.

5/2-6. good luck all.

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05-06-2011 , 04:15 PM

#3306

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

Will wait and wait tomorrow to see the weather, but some order of
MMM, Soldat, and Nehro up top, with AAA and Stay Thirsty underneath. Can't make AAA my #1 pick any longer. Add in Pants on Fire if rains to all exotics.

If Santiva goes off cheaper than open put some small save bets there if no rain.

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05-06-2011 , 04:26 PM

#3307

DiscreetCat

journeyman

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 348

Diva Ash wins @ $9.00

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05-06-2011 , 04:27 PM

#3308

Sluss

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 4,427

Feel the need to get warmed up:

Oaks /Derby Double

1) 1,4
2)10,11,13,16,17

Oaks Tri Box
1,4,7

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05-06-2011 , 04:28 PM

#3309

TheWalk

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,599

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

This is basically the exact same logic I am using, as well. MMM, Soldat, Nehro, and AAA are going to be my "A horses" on my multirace tickets.

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05-06-2011 , 04:44 PM

#3310

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

CD Race 10:
$1 P3
1,2,3,4,7,10,13
1,4,6,7,9
3,4

$70

Kentucky Oaks:

Joyful Victory -230* vs Summer Soiree
Kathmanblu +115* vs Zazu
Kathmanblu -120* vs Plum Pretty
Kathmanblu -150* vs Summer Soiree
Zazu -135* vs Summer Soiree
Holy Heavens -110* vs Street Storm

to win $40 per

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05-06-2011 , 04:54 PM

#3311

TheWalk

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,599

CD Race 10:

$1 EX 12/All Box

$22 total

CD Race 10:

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05-06-2011 , 05:06 PM

#3312

TheWalk

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,599

Good luck Honch!!!! Even though First Dude nipped my $40 win bet on Regal Ransom, and kept you in the mix. I'll be rooting for you buddy.

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05-06-2011 , 05:20 PM

#3313

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

Ok also added $80 Plum Pretty -110 vs Summer Soiree. Now have four correlated vs. bets fading SS. Her previous two "impressive" victories were against not particularly impressive (imo) competition with opening fractions of 24 and 24.8, no wonder she could open up. 5 of her other previous 6 races were all terrible, the other was a meh 36k maiden win, and the likelihood she presses pace then fades at final turn seems very probable to me. Plum has at least shown she can handle 22" fractions against G1 & G2 competition. Also, Todd from TVG is singling Summer Soiree in his Oaks/Derby DD so I feel extra confident in fading her.

Good luck Honch!

Last edited by vetiver; 05-06-2011 at 05:28 PM.

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05-06-2011 , 05:21 PM

#3314

Kevroc

Chubby Chaser

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 20,366

John Locke doing a good job on the Versus coverage.

I've got Doubles.. Plum Pretty with Dialed In, Stay Thirsty and Shackleford.

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05-06-2011 , 05:26 PM

#3315

SimonBarSinister

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,588

Oaks / Derby Double

1-3-4-12/ 12,15,16,17

Also, I know its early and I understand why, but its absolutely laughable that
Twice the Appeal is bet down to 8-1. If that horse wins the Derby, I'll never bet another race in my life. No Shot.

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05-06-2011 , 05:34 PM

#3316

TheWalk

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,599

Oaks/Derby Double:

$1 DD 6-9,11,12/1,4,12,13,17,19

total $36

$5 DD 6/1,13,17,19

total $20

.50 Oaks/Woodford/Derby pk3

1,6,12/6,14/1,4,8,12,13,17,19

total $21

Last edited by TheWalk; 05-06-2011 at 05:45 PM. Reason: read something incorrectly

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05-06-2011 , 05:47 PM

#3317

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

JV/PP with
1/4/7/12/13/17/19 for the KO/KD 2bl.

for the Woodford, add Prince WiA and Court Vision. Go baby, go!

Last edited by NajdorfDefense; 05-06-2011 at 05:55 PM.

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05-06-2011 , 05:56 PM

#3318

TripleH68

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 6,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by SimonBarSinister

A few friends of mine are in the "you would have to be crazy to leave Borel out" camp. Huh?

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05-06-2011 , 06:01 PM

#3319

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by SimonBarSinister

If that horse wins the Derby, I'll never bet another race in my life. No Shot.

C'mon current odds are terrible but the horse won the Sunland and has the best CD jockey up.

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05-06-2011 , 06:15 PM

#3320

Holdemking777

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 206

Cheers Kev, Honch, Walk...glad to see your all still at it. I headed down to Ellis park for advanced Derby wagering today ill post my picks later but I did get down on a nice oaks double that is as follows:

4,6,12 / 8,17,19 $9 bucks investment

Not bad on plum pretty 14.70 to kick it off...now go go go

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05-06-2011 , 06:18 PM

#3321

SimonBarSinister

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,588

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

C'mon current odds are terrible but the horse won the Sunland and has the best CD jockey up.

Can't tell if your serious or not, since I see no 3 on your ticket.

But I'll explain myself the best I can, He has a Maiden 30 win and a starter allowance win, then @ 25-1 in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, they flew early and absolutely crawled home in field that was terrible at best. He is by Successful Appeal who was a tremendous sprinter but I'm not sure if that lends it self to a mile and a quarter. A lifetime high beyer of 89, really!! I mean I cannot take anything away from Borel and if he guides this horse home, he might be the best jock of all time. but to me this horse has zero shot to win and I would rather see Sway Away in here than this nag. No Shot!

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05-06-2011 , 06:19 PM

#3322

M.Honcho

adept

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 862

Congrats Najd,Holdem....Gave it hell,what ya going to do. Didnt go down anything significant with the early wins,so off to cap tomorrows card, and make some bigger plays im sure.

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05-06-2011 , 09:03 PM

#3323

Holdemking777

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 206

Took long time for me to find this hopefully if you need it you come here first:

The $2 Oaks/Derby Double payoffs with #12 Plum Pretty

1. Archarcharch ($220.20)
2. Brilliant Speed ($553.20)
3. Twice the Appeal ($601.60)
4. Stay Thirsty ($508.60)
5. Decisive Moment ($1,642.60)
6. Comma to the Top ($883.80)
7. Pants on Fire ($447.40)
8. Dialed In ($122.20)
9. Derby Kitten ($995.40)
10. Twinspired ($1,098.80)
11. Master of Hounds ($371.40)
12. Santiva ($513.80)
13. Mucho Macho Man ($249.80)
14. Shackleford ($353)
15. Midnight Interlude ($191)
16. Animal Kingdom ($345.60)
17. Soldat ($247.20)
18. SCRATCH
19. Nehro ($170.40)
20. Watch Me Go ($2,068.20)

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05-06-2011 , 09:25 PM

#3324

metsman82

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,672

Quote:

Originally Posted by SimonBarSinister

I'm personally not using him as anything other than backend of my superfectas, but he's not impossible. Beyer's are jokes. He's moving forward and his 3.75 thorograph figure is only a couple points slower than what will win, and almost certaintly will be 1-wide both turns..

I hope he doesn't, but I wouldn't be shocked if he hit the board. Definently not a play at 8-1, that's laughable. But he's faster coming into this than Mine That Bird was.

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05-06-2011 , 09:37 PM

#3325

AlwaysTwinNSpired

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1,236

I have some .50c tris i wanted to post here for the derby since im gonna b imbedded in the trenches tmrw and wont b signing back in for a while. I have doubles ending with AAA & Shackleford, so ive drawn my tickets up like so... Any questions jus let me know before 2am est.

.50c tri's

1,4,8,15,16,19 with 1,2,3,4,7,8,10,13,15,16,17,19 with 14 $33

1,4,8,15,16,19 with 14 with 1,2,3,4.7.8.10.13.15.16.17.19 $33

4,8,14,15,16,19 with 2,3,4,7,8,10,13,14,15,16,17,19 with 1 $33

4,8,14,15,16,19 with 1 with 2,3,4,7,8,10,13,14,15,16,17,19 $33

Total $132

YTD +154

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