Gold cup time which is the only horse race/sport event a year I ever bet on now my degen betting is over (and the boat race straight after but w/e).

Picks this year:

Kempes EW @ 11
Weird Al to win @ 21
Midnight chase to win @ 15

I never go near favs in jump racing and usually have more EW bets but could see very little value this year. One tiiiimmmmeeeeee.

Honcho,
Great to hear you beat that horrible disease! your a strong dude and very admirable in what you have accomplished the past 4.5 years staying tough. your an inspiration to all of us... good luck with the ponies this weekend boys

...

SPOT PLAY

Santa Anita race 6 #3 MILLIE N MARIE

$20 win

ytd (-1100)

Congrats Honcho...way to go man!!!

Oaklawn - Race 10

#6 The Factor (2/1 ml)

Short morning-line here, but i think there's a pretty decent chance The Factor won't go favored in this race, as many have long been questioning his ability to stretch out, and will almost certainly be trying to beat him here. Myself, i was open to that idea, but in looking at the race on paper, i really can't get past this colt. We all know he's fast and talented, we've known that for a while, and it doesn't look to me as if he'll receive much pressure on the front end today. It should also be noted that, even though The Factor is stretching out here, the two-turn fractions he'll be setting (particularly if he is indeed alone on the lead) will be much softer than what he's accustomed to. With those factors in mind (pardon the pun), it's highly conceivable that he'll have plenty of gas left in the tank for the stretch drive. Also, be aware that Baffert had a lot of success shipping 3yo colts into Oaklawn last year, winning the Southwest with Conveyance (another speedy frontrunner, btw), and of course winning the Rebel with Lookin at Lucky.* Also, Baffert had previously indicated that he was pointing The Factor to the Sunland Park Derby, which is run over a speed-favoring surface, would undoubtedly have had a softer field, and carried a purse of $800,000. The fact he's been re-routed to the Rebel probably indicates a recent boost in Baffert's confidence level regarding The Factor's chances of stretching out successfully. Otherwise, why not stick to softer competition with a much larger purse? And lastly, don't forget The Factor was very much flattered last weekend (as was Sway Away) when Premier Pegasus destroyed the San Felipe field by open lengths. Lots to like here, and should be very playable.

GULFSTREAM PARK .50 late pick four (playing $2 ticket)

8) 1-2-3-4-7
9) 5-10
10) 5
11) 2-5-6-7-12

$100

ytd (-1,200)

How about an ice cold exacta in the last at TuP ?

TURF PARADISE race 9 $10 exacta 11/7

ytd (-1,210)

Even the sun shines on a dog's ass sometimes.........

Nailed the late pick 4 at SA, great value for the prices

Race 7 Malibu prayer 2/1
Race 8 Mcleans Music 7/5
Race 9 Saint Isablelle 5/2
Race 10 Jordanelle 7/2

Pick 4 paid $600, I love jus messing around using a combo like 2/2/2/3, cost 24 and all u have to do is beat a couple faves and the pick 4 pays very decent all the time, and if u get lucky and catch a longshot it can pay a couple thousand. good day for me , first ticket i cashed inawhile :-))))

Congrats BK,was just a spectator myself today for the most part. Had Logical Single in the Irish Obrien to win ML 16-1,the horse took 3rd.

The Factor wins by open lengths @ $4.80

I think I'm going to play some horseys today...

started capping Tampa and Gulfstream, I should be posting some picks later. Going to try some cheap pk4 tickets and some WP spot plays, perhaps.

TAMPA Race 1:

$8 WPS #2

$3 Ex 3/2,7

$30 total

down $30.

TAMPA 2:

$4 EX 4/1,2,5,7,8

total $20

ok, now we're talking... up $61 on the day so far...

Tampa pk 4

3) 5
4) 1, 3, 4
5) ALL
6) 1, 2

and $10 WIN 2

$40 total...

damn... sucks when you hit your 7 to 1 single and then lose the next race. oh well.

up $21 so far today.

Tampa Race 5: $8 WPS 4

total $24

I posted this on another forum in response to the ramblings of some Uncle Mo zealot who thinks there's no way the horse can possibly lose, and thought you guys might enjoy reading it. It basically sums up the problems that the likely raceday favorite is facing:

Is Uncle Mo a very good (possibly even great) horse? Sure, of course he is. I don't think anyone is disputing that.

Ask yourself how winter-book favorites have fared in the Derby over the years though. Not real well, and that's putting it mildly. It doesn't have anything to do with talent, it's just that there a TON of extraneous factors in play. More than any other race in the world, probably. I could spend ten minutes listing them all, and still miss some probably. That would just be a waste of time though, anyone who's been following horses as long as you have should know what i'm talking about (though you choose to just ignore it).

The main problem i'm having with Uncle Mo at this point is something you yourself mentioned in the above post:

"The Derby is just 6 weeks away"

What has Uncle Mo done to prepare for it? Win a one-turn mile vs. a tiny field, while racing alone on a ridiculously soft pace? Sure he finished fast, but he had zero excuse not to. It doesn't prove anything. The distance up the Wood will help in his development, but again, he figures to get little-to-no pressure while racing against a tiny field. The horse just hasn't been pushed at all, which isn't going to help when he's asked to run 1 1/4 miles vs. a huge field vs. what figures to be some very serious pace pressure. And while he might be able to rate, the Derby isn't the place you want to start experimenting with those things.

That's the other big problem i have with his Derby chances, his running style. If you like Uncle Mo, you had better pray that The Factor doesn't make the race. Is Uncle Mo better than The Factor? Who knows, maybe, but that's not even the issue. The issue is that The Factor (and perhaps a few others) will undoubtedly be applying serious pace pressure to a horse that hasn't faced it in a very long time, and who will be racing 1 1/4 miles for the first time, with over 15 horses in hot pursuit. Even if he puts away The Factor (or whomever), it's a long way to the wire dude, and he's probably going to be softened up. That's why frontrunners are a notoriously bad bet in that race. Maybe Uncle Mo has the talent and the stamina to overcome all this, it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world. But he's really up against it, in my opinion.

And for all he has to overcome, he'll offer what, 3/1 or less? You can have him.

down $3 bucks total today.

Tampa Race 7:

$1 EX All/7

$1 EX 7/All

$16 total

this pk4 paid $1847... I only missed Race 4, as I didn't include a Suffolk shipper that's only way to win was wire to wire. Very frustrating to hit your single and your 2 horse race, but lose another... I'm going to give the late pk4 a shot and see what happens.

sorry for all the posts, just felt like posting my picks as I play. if it's clouding up the forum, just tell me to stop

Good article DC....And your all good Walk,fun having fun sometimes

Go Blue!

TAM pk 4

8) 6,10
9) 1,4,8,9,11
10) 3,4,5,8
11) 8,12

$40

Guys the flat season is starting where I am in a couple days, and I'm really interested in learning about this.

Just messing around I am rating horses by their speed and found something interesting.


This horse as it got older, and carried more weight got quicker, is this normal or an anomoly?

TAM 10

$20 WP on #3 Fresh Ice

Had not planned on making any wagers outside of Mich vs Duke today,but watched an interview this morning with Brice Blanc and he raved on Juniper Pass,and was pist he was tooken off of him,he mentioned this about 10 times during the interview,that was enough for me so put $20W,forgott because was watching basketball with my son who heads back to college today. Had Mich +12.5 also for fiddy,so obv no bank breaking but not a bad sunday.

Got lucky today,just watched replays,had i known it was a wet day i would not of made that wager. Ignorance is bliss sometimes,and ive got the ignorance part covered well

Ok,just saw this in the DRF and it is BS. Happens once maybe its a mistake,but twice,and 10 times now its then called a trend. Doug "Milkshake" O'neil thought he would try another anti-inflammatory drug,and got caught AGAIN. The carbonmonoxide "milkshake" he was busted for earlier this yr increases a horses chances of winning because it decreases the lactic acid build up in the horses muscles,which also puts the horse in harms way as well. I only know how describe it as if you were doing curls,and you felt your arms get heavy on you and hard to straighten out,that is the lactic acid that builds up in the muscles. This is why you see a horses stride shorten considerably towards the end of a race,and im sure you have heard Trevor,or Vic describe the horse shortening stride.

I think it was a few yrs back Bianncone was suspended in Ky for having an anti-inflammatory in the form of cobra venom. I remember an ex Cane and Lions safety Bennie Blades who suffered from back spasms always used the stuff at halftime of games.

It just is horrible for the sport imo,he is now the west coast Dutrow. Maybe giving these guys some considerable time off from the sport that made them,not the other way around,would do some good to not only their ego's,but the sport itself. Absolute BS Doug,but we have come to expect nothing less from you by your repeated offenses.

Lets see if the CHRB actually does the right thing this time,and maybe a few owners that care about their animals start to take notice and go in another direction with a trainor with some integrity,and class. Because the horses cant say it Doug,i will F-You!

http://www.drf.com/news/oneill-face-...st-santa-anita

Agree. If he crushes the wood I bet he'll be 5/2 or worse.

Btw as the gulfstream rainbow 6 pool grows bigger doesn't the likelihood someone scoops it become smaller? Would be awesome if it carried all the way to April 24th where you could play a $0.10 p6 with massive guaranteed payout carryover