For today's LA Derby, I think some early speed could weigh on War of Will as the 3 yr olds stretch out to 9f. Country House (8) could benefit from a meltdown and Spinoff (10) is rounding into form under Mott. Hog Creek (11) could close fast to hit the board. Looking to combine all these + War of Will in some verticals.

Like i said...These jokers are an easy read...Coming soon to SA!

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...r-development/

"urban logistics.."

DISGUSTING

I think SA is kinda being unfairly put on the hot seat with all of the breakdowns. I feel massive amounts of rain might be the reason for breakdowns..... it’s going to happen in the sport and I feel it’s just a variance thing where it might happen more during some meets and be negatively viewed by the non horse racing crowd.

I just saw another breakdown in a turf race at SA so I wonder what will
Happen. Looks bad for SA imo.

On another point, have the posters here been following the KD trail? I think this years KD is going to be a great betting race as there hasn’t been any really dominant horses I feel yet in the prep. If we can get a lot of early speed in the derby, feel bourbon war could be a great bet at a decent price. Honestly I think the parody of this years derby could be amazing. Not sure a favorite will win this year as I feel no horse has been dominant in preps (oddly bafferts horses look good but not standard blow you out of the water good like recent history).

Btw Santa Anita needs to get rid of that stupid downhill turf course. Call me crazy but it seems stupid to have horses go from grass to dirt back to grass. Seems really dangerous and can just be eliminated to mitigate potential risk to jockeys and horses when crossing dirt.

I saw the spill in the downhill stakes race today and it was appalling. It’s really going to be messed up when they ruin a jockeys life and he becomes paralyzed due to that stupid dirt crossing. It’s really scary to see tiny jockeys thrown off horses especially in traffic where they are toast if a horse steps on them. Just my thoughts.

Exactly Kev...I honestly had no idea what the Stronach Group was about i was just trying to size up their moves because they just made no damn sense to me unless the outcome was as i had mentioned about the property. The distraction with lasix and whips is just that,and wether its a good idea or chit one matters not,it has not a damn thing to do with the issues they have now. Biggest issue imo right now is they let Peta put a foot in the door,and Linda wanted it that way and only reason so is the outcome i am predicting for SA.

I think with TR playing his part of fool to perfection,the added scrutiny,the public outcry (plenty more to come!) Linda will play her part then of the most concerned of horse people and do the right thing and shut down this horrible horrible travesty to animals. Just bad feeling it is going down this way.

JK i think the only horse on my KYD radar right now is the KM horse going in the Wood that caught my eye last out with that closing foot like Big Z had,name starts with a C i think can not think of name right off.

I just went to the PR and BOOM!!! There it is... I Swear i made my write up before i even saw this article which i had just now.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...ed-san-simeon/

Just watched the replays for the km horse (haiku) and wow that closing kick is deadly. Should be interesting to see how he handles the distance of the wood. This horse could be a great play in the kd if he can handle the distance. I feel closing at aqueduct is extremely difficult so his last 2 races were visually impressive. Nice call. Right now I like bourbon war the most for the derby but I gotta see the final preps and how the pace scenerio looks for the derby. If we can get some speed, I’m def looking for closers this year but not sure how the pace will be just yet.

Well we both F'd the horses name up you were closer...I will add the replay that caught my eye for the horse name Haikal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adPOTfWFsIs

Bourbon War and Haikal are interesting if the Baffert horses don't shape up. I hope BW makes it to Churchill but he could get squeezed out in the points standings since he won't run anymore preps.

Yea I’m hoping bw gets in. I really think it was impressive how he almost won the prior prep at Gulfstream but was edged by code of honor. Honestly I think bw will have an edge based on visuals of that race and how he was closing late on code of honor. I’m hoping the derby has a lot of early pace. A 20’horse field almost always gtns a solid early pace which really helps closers. This years derby should have great odds also. Not sure the favorite will be too low (I’m think 4-1 will be lowest a fav will be and it might be closer to 5-1 or maybe 6-1 if nobody dominates this weekend).

Btw, random but do you guys find handicapping turf races easier than dirt? I feel like I do well in turf races when compared to dirt lately. Also anyone play Los Alamitos? I’ve played Los Alamitos 3 times in past month and have done quite well. I’ve done poorly with dirt races. Maybe it’s bc I play closers a lot on turf and look for favorable pace setups ( along with play chad brown horses too much) but yea I still can’t figure out dirt racing. I find figuring out pace scenarios/ early speed in dirt races difficult.

This is a double-edged sword.

Closing in a 20 horse field, you need a ton of "racing luck", that's a lot of traffic.

At least if you have some early gas, you do not have to hope to get a trip..

MTB is only horse comes to mind coming from behind to win the KYD of recent and will be interested to see if making 2 lefts this Saturday keeps Haikal more to the front middle. What caught my eye was the closing foot of course but when that horse switched leads and swung wide horse seem to know where the finish line was and did what was needed to win. Hell won by a full horse that far back. Big test this weekend in The Wood.

Arizona?? Take a pizza oven with you? What are you doing for a slice of solid pie my man? Hell of a switch and glad all took to the new surface my friend.

JK the pull you have with write up's man...Downhill turf racing suspended at SA

If haikal gets the distance.... omg he’s going to be a force late. The way they stretched him out makes me think he won’t get 10 panels but who knows.

Kevroc, I def agree with you. A closing horse can’t go insanely wide on final turn and expect to win unless the horse is elite. However, I’ll take a 46 second half mile vs a 48 second quarter. 20’horse field almost guarantees 47 or quicker early on which really helps closers especially if the front runners aren’t bossy horses (ala Cali chrome, American Pharoah, NyQuist, etc).orb won as a closer and even on a semi sloppy track which was impressive.

Def not saying a closer will win but I def will examine them hard if the price is right and we don’t have any elite pace pressers/ early speed. Right now though I have no idea. Gotta see the pps, post positions, jocks on which horses etc.

It's brutal. The pizza is trash.. and the put MAYO on burgers out here.. W T F. *gross*

But, all that being said.. the weather is worth EVERYTHING. It seriously is a mood enhancer. I could be having the worst day and just walk outside and everything is okay.

Got pummeled this weekend as far as racing goes.. taking the rest of April off and will go to Turf Paradise on Derby Day.

Also aiming for Saratoga August 9-10.

I drive the same road everyday to work,everyday the same damn road i get a flat tire. Tried driving a different car,same thing flat tire. Then by advice of the road commission i was told i needed to stop taking an aspirin every morning and this would stop the flat tires. Brilliant!!!

Can not even remember anymore what attracted me to horse racing

I believe this about covers my feelings on the subject of MAYO as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYzOFfl2c-M

Also because this is how we roll in Michigan my man...Under promise over deliver...or delivery in this instance Very solid pie

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIPlce6hsaE

Great Holiday Weekend to all itt

I know when i posted it it came from out of nowhere BUT it just all made sense not even knowing anything about anything other then trying to put together the moves being made.

If i could just bet on people...predictable & easy most are especially once a certain age and ego sets in.

SA might not have the signs out front BUT it's future has been determined it is only a matter of time now.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/r...-put-in-trust/

last post 4/24? Whats up thread? Its Derby week! I like the chalk. My handicapping has always been pretty good in the Derby; betting not always so. I missed on Always Dreaming; otherwise, have had the winner every year but only showed a profit under 50% of the time. Best paydays were on Ill Have Another and California Chrome. With a 13 day Vegas trip looming (including Belmont Day), I want to make a little money. I think OB will be battling for the wire. Last time I was on a Derby horse this early was AP also coming off the AD. Based upon historical payouts, my big play will be a place bet on OB. Ill also play a n exacta with OB/over all. Could pay nicely. Probably also play a trifecta OB/Bafferts/all and a small super single OB on top. Plan to ensure that a successful place bet on OB returns a minimum profit of 2-1 on the day. Good luck all!

It's wide open and still waiting on the draw, but this year i'm not fishing with rod & reel, I'm fishing with a net. Will be playing lots of trifecta combos.

I know I'm keying Max, Tax, GW and Vekoma on top.. waiting on full PP draw to decide the balance.

1 War of Will Tyler Gaffalione Mark Casse 20-1
2 Tax Junior Alvarado Danny Gargan 20-1
3 By My Standards Gabriel Saez Bret Calhoun 20-1
4 Gray Magician Drayden Van Dyke Peter Miller 50-1
5 Improbable Irad Ortiz Jr. Bob Baffert 6-1
6 Vekoma Javier Castellano George Weaver 20-1
7 Maximum Security Luis Saez Jason Servis 10-1
8 Tacitus Jose Ortiz Bill Mott 10-1
9 Plus Que Parfait Ricardo Santana Jr. Brendan Walsh 30-1
10 Cutting Humor Corey Lanerie Todd Pletcher 30-1
11 Haikal Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 30-1
12 Omaha Beach Mike Smith Richard Mandella 4-1
13 Code of Honor John Velazquez Shug McGaughey 15-1
14 Win Win Win Julian Pimentel Mike Trombetta 15-1
15 Master Fencer Julien Leparoux Koichi Tsunoda 50-1
16 Game Winner Joel Rosario Bob Baffert 5-1
17 Roadster Florent Geroux Bob Baffert 6-1
18 Long Range Toddy Jon Court Steve Asmussen 30-1
19 Spinoff Manny Franco Todd Pletcher 30-1
20 Country House Flavien Prat Bill Mott 30-1
AE Bodexpress Chris Landeros Gustavo Delgado 30-1

I agree with liking the chalk. I honestly like Omaha beach a lot. If pace is a little too quick, roadster is my 2nd choice. I think pace will be moderate to slightly fast due to 20 horses.... however think Omaha beach will take it to them in the slop.

Maximum security is ez toss, code of honor looks good if he gets super hot pace, haikal prolly has shot if pace is suicidal. Think I’m going to be keying on tris with Omaha beach as my 1st place single on most tickets and will throw in some longer shots in 2 and 3 hoping to chat here a price.

Looking to possibly single mitole in horizontal wagers. Horse has looked like pure fire in lower level sprints compared to g1s but think he is going to be one of the best sprinters this year.

Derby day looks like rain again this year. This really makes me like Omaha beach as he has handled a wet track well. Def think the race is a good betting race as you can’t go wrong with the baffert horses and the horse that won the wood. Think mike smith going to Omaha beach make that’s the obv choice though.

chalk streak ends here.
time for a fat exacta
I like tacitus on top and will be fading the favs
no superhorse here and big money mike doesn't cash at the worlds greatest cocktail party

since Omaha beach is scratched who ya gut?

I have no luck at big races so I need help,maybe a 4 horse exactor

Hmm you can’t go wrong with one of the baffert horses in my opinion. I feel the other horses beat up on bad competition. I like roadster if he can sit a little off pace and ounce and not be back way too far. Feel pace will be honest no matter what.

Def fade maximum security. I can make a case for the other top 4-5 horses though.

Wonder if baffert sticks with flo geroux on roadster. I hope he does however I could see why he would wanna stick mike Smith on roadster. I honestly would feel very bad for geroux if he lost mount but that’s racing and mike Smith has last mount on horse and is prolly one of the best jocks.

I was going to put some hefty $ on Omaha beach so I’m kinda bummed. Thought he was going to get a golden trip behind the pace and romp. I guess it’s good they didn’t run him bc if they ran him in current condition.... I was going to lose a decent amount of money.

Haikal prolly out tomorrow before scratch time with a foot issue imo...Waiting too see how the track plays tomorrow and will throw 3 to fade up for KYD.

Subscribe to this theory at your own risk BUT i am of the opinion if you have 3 you really do not have 1...Kinda like QB's on your roster with no clear cut starter type deal. Can BB win is his stock above the rest? Hell probably,why i said subscribe at your own risk BUT i am playing against the 3.