HORSE RACING THREAD
04-19-2012
, 06:29 PM
12 horse field. #4 is 9/5 fav. I use 5 horses over him n tri played ticket like so for .50c 1,3,5,6,10 with 4 with 1,3,5,6,10 $10 bet. It comes 6-4-1-3 #6 was 33-1 #4 was 9/5 & #1 was 12/1. Not a bad poke in a 12 horse field. What happened next was pretty standard, theydeclared the race a no race & refunded all wagers. 
04-19-2012
, 07:20 PM
OK Heart's race Filled! Originally scheduled as a 21,500$ Allowance at 6f, they had to bump it down to 5.5f to get two additional horses to enter. That said they got 6 horses. The upper level claiming/Allow ranks for older males at EMD are competitive, but not huge quantity of horses. They scheduled a 20k claimer race (14k purse) the same card and week as this one, so it probably siphoned off a horse or two. Including the game/talented Showme YourFriends.
That said 6 horses did enter so lets go through them by post position
1- Couldabenthewhisky This 4 year old gelding out of Harbor the Gold, was a state champion 2 year old, winning 4 of 6 starts and earning 92k. High hopes were to be had for his 3 year old campaign and he got off to a wonderful start winning the Jim Coleman Stakes up at Hastings, however, an injury setback and running into Jebrica in the EMD Derby, meant that it would be his only victory of the year (5strts 1-2-0).
Career best beyer: 93 (EMD Derby 8/14/11 9flngs)
Record: 9-3-2-1 (2-2 on wet) $151,642
Style: Stalking about 3 lengths back
Jockey: Gailyn Mitchell, the grizzled vet, the only rider to race every season at EMD, certainly knows what he is doing. Expect this horse to be placed well.
Trainer: Jenne Bonnie a newish trainer to the scene, but has done fairly well with a couple stakes horses over the last couple years, not a huge ammount of data to access, but she is at 33% in +180 and does ok from Route/Sprint.
Chances: His typical beyer as a 3 year old was a little low compared to some of these other horses, and his best beyers came at 9f, That said his campaign last year was fragmented, and he has put in solid works, so a step forward could be possible. However PASS, and look elsewhere! But keep an eye on this horse down the road!
2- He's All Heart a 6 year old gelding is the 2nd career leading money earner out of the Sire Private Gold (wohoo!?? lol!) behind dual oaks winner (EMD/HST) Zenovit. Heart had a solid campaign last year, after encountering some breathing issues midway through the campaign he rebounded ending the season with a win in the 8.5f Muckleshoot Tribal Classic. Interesting note: his last 5 beyers (83,84,83,83,80) I think we know what this horse is going to fire.
Career best beyer: 91 ( 9/12/2010 8f Mklshoot Tribal Classic [S])
Record: 27-7-6-5 (5-3-0-1 wet) $105,294
Style: Stalking about 2 lengths off the lead
Jockey: Juan Gutierrez, very fortunate to have a solid jockey like Juan aboard. One of the issues operating out of a smaller stable/trainer is that the good jockeys get holed up by outfits even if that means they are riding a losing horse in your race. Rather than your live horse.
Trainer: Larry Wolf operates a small stable here at the track, and races mostly for partnerships run by Victor "The predictor" Cozzetti. Heart's the best horse he has ever trained, and they've been a good combo for a number of years. One thing about Larry is that he seems to have his horses ready to go first time out Hitting at a 17% clip off the layoff).
Chances: Heart ran a strong second to Winning Machine Int his race last year when it was run at 6furlongs, and I see a similar result to last years. More to come later on.....
3- Hayjax a lightly raced 4 year old son of Souvenir Copy (Mr. Prospector). He is a speed ball in this race. Now whether or not he will last/fade could be an issue, but I'm sure he was one of the horses that entered after the distance got reduced. He will most likely set sub 22 opening quarter (not super uncommon at EMD but still pretty fast).
Career best beyer: 76 ( 7/30/11 N2X Allow 17,700$ 6.5f)
Record: 11-3-1-1 (1-0-1-0 wet) 35,394$
Style: Catch me if you can
Jockey: Leslie Mawing takes the mount, he was the leading rider last season at the meet, and had good success racing the winter down at GG winning at a 14% clip. Typically rides for leading conditioner Frank Lucarelli.
Trainer: Tim McCanna is one of the perennial leading trainers at the meet, and he splits time down in Northern California. He shipped Hayjax down to Cali at the end of the EMD meet, but in a start at GG and Fno the horse faded badly, and probably needed some time off. Off a layoff McCanna hits at a 15% clip.
Chances: This is a pretty solid class step for the horse, racing against older males, and stakes caliber horses. He should feel enough pressure to bring him to a stop. Note: He did win fresh to start the year last season in a race he was able to get clear early.
4- Davos a 7 year old gelding out of Langfuhr, he is owned by track president Ron Crockett. This horse has always raced hard, but the connections haven't been too willing to drop it down to a level where it would win at a higher percentage, however last year they did receive some gratification when the horse won a 30,000 Allowance race at 6.5f on Longacres Mile Day. Beating the 5th horse in this race in an upset. Last year his beyers were (90, 83,82,83,68)
Career best beyer: 100 (4/4/2009 Potrero Grande g2 6.5f)
Record: 19-3-4-2 (2-0-1-0 wet) 106,285$
Style: Stalking 3 furlongs back
Jockey: Joe Crispin, don't know what to say about Joe other than he seems to ride consistantly, and I can't remember a time where he put his horse in a horrible position, typically 4-5th in the jockey standings both here and at PM.
Trainer: Junior Coffey former Husky Football star a member of the National winning team from the 60's and a former NFL player, he works well with Ron Crockett (a UW booster btw) and conditions many of his horses. I've been told throughout the years Junior's one that likes to give his horses a race back off a layoff, and he isn't one to push his horses either. I was at the draw last year for the state bred stakes day, and he was asked what he thought about his horses he had running, and instead of the typical canned response good trip blahahaha he was very candid "I don't think they are ready to go, but the owners want to try and get some money". And sure enough his horses didn't win
Chances: Davos fights hard, his beyers put him into contention with the other horses in this race, he has finished both in front and behind Heart and Hollywood Harbor. So he can't be counted out, however I believe he isn't ready to fire his best performance. PASS.
5- Hollywood Harbor this lightly race yet SUPER talented gelding, has shown much promise, when ON the track. However staying on the track has been his issue. His only time outside the money was on the turf at Hollywood which he didn't take to. He was state champion two year old, but at 3 developed suspensory issues following the turf attempt, and didn't race again until May of last year. Now 5 and with a 4 race campaign under his belt last year he should be ready to rock and roll for a strong campaign.
Career best beyer: 91 (7/4/11 OC 32k/N1X 6.5f)
Record: 9-5-3-0 (1-1-0-0 wet) 100,961$
Style: On the lead
Sire: Harbor the Gold stands for 5.5k in Oregon which makes him the priciest stallion in the NW, and for gold reason this horse produces stakes winners and champions year after year. Furthermore his stock shows a propensity for fast development, thus early returns at 2. Most stallions in the NW stand for 2k to 1k, with a couple standing about 3,500 and 2,500. So this stallion must really stand out! One other note about Harbor the Gold is that he has shown a powerful trait to produce horses with a high cruising speed.
Jockey: Jose Zunino an argentinian (IIRC) has been racing at EMD for a few years now, with moderate success. In my mind I put him in that middle tier of the colony jockey, gets some live mounts but not with the big operations. However, he rode well on this horse last year, and picks up the mount again.
Trainer: Chris Stenslie had an excellent meet last year, she really has built a quality stable and method thanks in part to the efforts of Jodie Peetz who is a big owner at the track. Together they have really bought some quality stock out of the local sale, and made great decisions. I commend them for not pushing this horse too hard last year, and protecting hte animal itself more than there pocket books. Chris hits well off a layoff at 24% +180 days.
Chances: Hayjax is pretty strong coming out of the gate, but this horse has shown it can win a pace dual, and come out on top, where as Hayjax has shown to buckle. This horses last work was 6f in a sizzling 1:10 3/5ths Ready to fire? YES. CHOICE? YES Will it be a short short price? Probably!
6- Aaron the baron a 5 yr old grey gelding out of Tribunal (RIP former leading sire of Washington) This horse may be a bit out of his league in this race, but i commend the connections for trying, and the horse certainly does have powerful connections. Elttaes Stables has been a player at EMD for many seasons now, and recently bought the full brother to Noosa Beach for 82k at last years sale.
Career best beyer: 82 ( 8/7/11 25k N2X Claimer 8f)
Record: 7-2-1-1 (3-1-1-0 wet) 26,929$
Style: stalking at various distances
Jockey: Rocco Bowen so new to the colony and the country that he doesn't come up in Equibase! From the Carribean, he is off to a solid start however at the meet, finishing in the money 12/19 times.
Trainer: Doris Harwood is the career leading stakes winning trainer at EMD, she does a good job, but also gets a high quality stock to work with. She used to train for Northwest Farms which is an operation that routinely brings in good kentucky breds. That said lets not kid ourselves the woman can train. and she can also bring em off the bench at 25% on +180 days.
Chances: The horse doesn't measure up with the field. He has had some issues staying healthy, and also coming out of the gate well (he reared up in the Mckleshoot Tribal Classic last year). This is the easiest horse to cross off the Form in my opinion.
So in summation, I believe Hollywood Harbor is looking to step up from here, and this could propel him towards the Governors in late May. Whisky will have to come from the rail for the first time in quite a while, after getting some good post position draws last year, and could have a difficult time getting a clean trip with fellow stalkers to his outside, in Heart and Davos.
I see it going
Hollywood Harbor
He’s All Heart
Couldabenthewhisky
Damn 1,800 words wtf.
That said 6 horses did enter so lets go through them by post position
1- Couldabenthewhisky This 4 year old gelding out of Harbor the Gold, was a state champion 2 year old, winning 4 of 6 starts and earning 92k. High hopes were to be had for his 3 year old campaign and he got off to a wonderful start winning the Jim Coleman Stakes up at Hastings, however, an injury setback and running into Jebrica in the EMD Derby, meant that it would be his only victory of the year (5strts 1-2-0).
Career best beyer: 93 (EMD Derby 8/14/11 9flngs)
Record: 9-3-2-1 (2-2 on wet) $151,642
Style: Stalking about 3 lengths back
Jockey: Gailyn Mitchell, the grizzled vet, the only rider to race every season at EMD, certainly knows what he is doing. Expect this horse to be placed well.
Trainer: Jenne Bonnie a newish trainer to the scene, but has done fairly well with a couple stakes horses over the last couple years, not a huge ammount of data to access, but she is at 33% in +180 and does ok from Route/Sprint.
Chances: His typical beyer as a 3 year old was a little low compared to some of these other horses, and his best beyers came at 9f, That said his campaign last year was fragmented, and he has put in solid works, so a step forward could be possible. However PASS, and look elsewhere! But keep an eye on this horse down the road!
2- He's All Heart a 6 year old gelding is the 2nd career leading money earner out of the Sire Private Gold (wohoo!?? lol!) behind dual oaks winner (EMD/HST) Zenovit. Heart had a solid campaign last year, after encountering some breathing issues midway through the campaign he rebounded ending the season with a win in the 8.5f Muckleshoot Tribal Classic. Interesting note: his last 5 beyers (83,84,83,83,80) I think we know what this horse is going to fire.
Career best beyer: 91 ( 9/12/2010 8f Mklshoot Tribal Classic [S])
Record: 27-7-6-5 (5-3-0-1 wet) $105,294
Style: Stalking about 2 lengths off the lead
Jockey: Juan Gutierrez, very fortunate to have a solid jockey like Juan aboard. One of the issues operating out of a smaller stable/trainer is that the good jockeys get holed up by outfits even if that means they are riding a losing horse in your race. Rather than your live horse.
Trainer: Larry Wolf operates a small stable here at the track, and races mostly for partnerships run by Victor "The predictor" Cozzetti. Heart's the best horse he has ever trained, and they've been a good combo for a number of years. One thing about Larry is that he seems to have his horses ready to go first time out Hitting at a 17% clip off the layoff).
Chances: Heart ran a strong second to Winning Machine Int his race last year when it was run at 6furlongs, and I see a similar result to last years. More to come later on.....
3- Hayjax a lightly raced 4 year old son of Souvenir Copy (Mr. Prospector). He is a speed ball in this race. Now whether or not he will last/fade could be an issue, but I'm sure he was one of the horses that entered after the distance got reduced. He will most likely set sub 22 opening quarter (not super uncommon at EMD but still pretty fast).
Career best beyer: 76 ( 7/30/11 N2X Allow 17,700$ 6.5f)
Record: 11-3-1-1 (1-0-1-0 wet) 35,394$
Style: Catch me if you can
Jockey: Leslie Mawing takes the mount, he was the leading rider last season at the meet, and had good success racing the winter down at GG winning at a 14% clip. Typically rides for leading conditioner Frank Lucarelli.
Trainer: Tim McCanna is one of the perennial leading trainers at the meet, and he splits time down in Northern California. He shipped Hayjax down to Cali at the end of the EMD meet, but in a start at GG and Fno the horse faded badly, and probably needed some time off. Off a layoff McCanna hits at a 15% clip.
Chances: This is a pretty solid class step for the horse, racing against older males, and stakes caliber horses. He should feel enough pressure to bring him to a stop. Note: He did win fresh to start the year last season in a race he was able to get clear early.
4- Davos a 7 year old gelding out of Langfuhr, he is owned by track president Ron Crockett. This horse has always raced hard, but the connections haven't been too willing to drop it down to a level where it would win at a higher percentage, however last year they did receive some gratification when the horse won a 30,000 Allowance race at 6.5f on Longacres Mile Day. Beating the 5th horse in this race in an upset. Last year his beyers were (90, 83,82,83,68)
Career best beyer: 100 (4/4/2009 Potrero Grande g2 6.5f)
Record: 19-3-4-2 (2-0-1-0 wet) 106,285$
Style: Stalking 3 furlongs back
Jockey: Joe Crispin, don't know what to say about Joe other than he seems to ride consistantly, and I can't remember a time where he put his horse in a horrible position, typically 4-5th in the jockey standings both here and at PM.
Trainer: Junior Coffey former Husky Football star a member of the National winning team from the 60's and a former NFL player, he works well with Ron Crockett (a UW booster btw) and conditions many of his horses. I've been told throughout the years Junior's one that likes to give his horses a race back off a layoff, and he isn't one to push his horses either. I was at the draw last year for the state bred stakes day, and he was asked what he thought about his horses he had running, and instead of the typical canned response good trip blahahaha he was very candid "I don't think they are ready to go, but the owners want to try and get some money". And sure enough his horses didn't win
Chances: Davos fights hard, his beyers put him into contention with the other horses in this race, he has finished both in front and behind Heart and Hollywood Harbor. So he can't be counted out, however I believe he isn't ready to fire his best performance. PASS.
5- Hollywood Harbor this lightly race yet SUPER talented gelding, has shown much promise, when ON the track. However staying on the track has been his issue. His only time outside the money was on the turf at Hollywood which he didn't take to. He was state champion two year old, but at 3 developed suspensory issues following the turf attempt, and didn't race again until May of last year. Now 5 and with a 4 race campaign under his belt last year he should be ready to rock and roll for a strong campaign.
Career best beyer: 91 (7/4/11 OC 32k/N1X 6.5f)
Record: 9-5-3-0 (1-1-0-0 wet) 100,961$
Style: On the lead
Sire: Harbor the Gold stands for 5.5k in Oregon which makes him the priciest stallion in the NW, and for gold reason this horse produces stakes winners and champions year after year. Furthermore his stock shows a propensity for fast development, thus early returns at 2. Most stallions in the NW stand for 2k to 1k, with a couple standing about 3,500 and 2,500. So this stallion must really stand out! One other note about Harbor the Gold is that he has shown a powerful trait to produce horses with a high cruising speed.
Jockey: Jose Zunino an argentinian (IIRC) has been racing at EMD for a few years now, with moderate success. In my mind I put him in that middle tier of the colony jockey, gets some live mounts but not with the big operations. However, he rode well on this horse last year, and picks up the mount again.
Trainer: Chris Stenslie had an excellent meet last year, she really has built a quality stable and method thanks in part to the efforts of Jodie Peetz who is a big owner at the track. Together they have really bought some quality stock out of the local sale, and made great decisions. I commend them for not pushing this horse too hard last year, and protecting hte animal itself more than there pocket books. Chris hits well off a layoff at 24% +180 days.
Chances: Hayjax is pretty strong coming out of the gate, but this horse has shown it can win a pace dual, and come out on top, where as Hayjax has shown to buckle. This horses last work was 6f in a sizzling 1:10 3/5ths Ready to fire? YES. CHOICE? YES Will it be a short short price? Probably!
6- Aaron the baron a 5 yr old grey gelding out of Tribunal (RIP former leading sire of Washington) This horse may be a bit out of his league in this race, but i commend the connections for trying, and the horse certainly does have powerful connections. Elttaes Stables has been a player at EMD for many seasons now, and recently bought the full brother to Noosa Beach for 82k at last years sale.
Career best beyer: 82 ( 8/7/11 25k N2X Claimer 8f)
Record: 7-2-1-1 (3-1-1-0 wet) 26,929$
Style: stalking at various distances
Jockey: Rocco Bowen so new to the colony and the country that he doesn't come up in Equibase! From the Carribean, he is off to a solid start however at the meet, finishing in the money 12/19 times.
Trainer: Doris Harwood is the career leading stakes winning trainer at EMD, she does a good job, but also gets a high quality stock to work with. She used to train for Northwest Farms which is an operation that routinely brings in good kentucky breds. That said lets not kid ourselves the woman can train. and she can also bring em off the bench at 25% on +180 days.
Chances: The horse doesn't measure up with the field. He has had some issues staying healthy, and also coming out of the gate well (he reared up in the Mckleshoot Tribal Classic last year). This is the easiest horse to cross off the Form in my opinion.
So in summation, I believe Hollywood Harbor is looking to step up from here, and this could propel him towards the Governors in late May. Whisky will have to come from the rail for the first time in quite a while, after getting some good post position draws last year, and could have a difficult time getting a clean trip with fellow stalkers to his outside, in Heart and Davos.
I see it going
Hollywood Harbor
He’s All Heart
Couldabenthewhisky
Damn 1,800 words wtf.
04-19-2012
, 10:42 PM
Quote:
12 horse field. #4 is 9/5 fav. I use 5 horses over him n tri played ticket like so for .50c 1,3,5,6,10 with 4 with 1,3,5,6,10 $10 bet. It comes 6-4-1-3 #6 was 33-1 #4 was 9/5 & #1 was 12/1. Not a bad poke in a 12 horse field. What happened next was pretty standard, theydeclared the race a no race & refunded all wagers.
Ahhhh.... I saw a replay of that little mishap. What a bad beat.
04-20-2012
, 04:48 PM
Santa Anita 4/20/12
5.) 1-3-5
6.) 9-1-8
7.) 3-5-2
8.) 5-7-6
The back nine looks to have some value to it today,and no can play tomorrow so going to try and take this Late PK4 down so i can shoot deeper on Sunday at it and the Mand Payout of the PK6 on closing day sunday.
5.) 1,3,5,7
6.) 1,5,8,9
7.) 1,3,4,5
8.) 5,6,7,8
Ticket $128
That should put HC's Blingo in the winners circle for sure in the 7th
...I am hoping in the short field that Tiz Point gets the jump and doesnt look back,but would prefer a bigger crooked number hit obviously...See ya fellas on Sunday
5.) 1-3-5
6.) 9-1-8
7.) 3-5-2
8.) 5-7-6
The back nine looks to have some value to it today,and no can play tomorrow so going to try and take this Late PK4 down so i can shoot deeper on Sunday at it and the Mand Payout of the PK6 on closing day sunday.
5.) 1,3,5,7
6.) 1,5,8,9
7.) 1,3,4,5
8.) 5,6,7,8
Ticket $128
That should put HC's Blingo in the winners circle for sure in the 7th
...I am hoping in the short field that Tiz Point gets the jump and doesnt look back,but would prefer a bigger crooked number hit obviously...See ya fellas on Sunday
04-20-2012
, 06:22 PM
Quote:
Santa Anita 4/20/12
5.) 1-3-5
6.) 9-1-8
7.) 3-5-2
8.) 5-7-6
The back nine looks to have some value to it today,and no can play tomorrow so going to try and take this Late PK4 down so i can shoot deeper on Sunday at it and the Mand Payout of the PK6 on closing day sunday.
5.) 1,3,5,7
6.) 1,5,8,9
7.) 1,3,4,5
8.) 5,6,7,8
Ticket $128
That should put HC's Blingo in the winners circle for sure in the 7th...I am hoping in the short field that Tiz Point gets the jump and doesnt look back,but would prefer a bigger crooked number hit obviously...See ya fellas on Sunday
5.) 1-3-5
6.) 9-1-8
7.) 3-5-2
8.) 5-7-6
The back nine looks to have some value to it today,and no can play tomorrow so going to try and take this Late PK4 down so i can shoot deeper on Sunday at it and the Mand Payout of the PK6 on closing day sunday.
5.) 1,3,5,7
6.) 1,5,8,9
7.) 1,3,4,5
8.) 5,6,7,8
Ticket $128
That should put HC's Blingo in the winners circle for sure in the 7th
...I am hoping in the short field that Tiz Point gets the jump and doesnt look back,but would prefer a bigger crooked number hit obviously...See ya fellas on Sunday
