Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
I went to Saratoga recently. I just cannot wrap my head around the pari-mutual stuff. I know there are groups out there that kill horse racing, but for the life of me I do not see how its possible. You bet on a horse at 10/1, thinking hes more like a 5/1 dog. Eventually people see the same thing you do and money comes in on him. He closes at 4/1. You get 4/1!! You bet on a 5/1 horse at 10/1 and end up with a -EV wager. It seems like noob city to me. I asked a couple guys who sort of looked like they knew what they were doing about it and it was like I asked them if I could **** their wife in the ass. Their reactions were a mixture of confusion, anger for some reason, and incredulous. Like IIII was the one who didnt get it. "You cant be greedy!" said one of them to me.
Anyone care to offer any insight at all at how one can possible expect to make long term money betting in pari mutual markets?
Hi like,
as somebody who grew up betting horses and sports but mainly horses this game is nearly impossible short term and long term there are so many variables
Takeout and rake is brutal, sometimes 33 percent, and then a thing called "breakage" which u really don't hear about, breakage is when a horse pays 6.40 to win, when u break it down the horse really pays 6.57 but it gets rounded down, New York throws u a bone and gives you 6.50 in that spot
To put into perspective $20 win bet returns...
6.40 = $64
6.57 = 65.70
Over time that 1.70 adds up and again that's not even counting the 18 percent win takeout
Now u have trainers trying with horses trainers taking a horse out for the first time, drugs, shipping, track conditions, small pools (can be a positive) sharp money, late money, conditional wagering, people holding pools hostage by hammering horse early to 1/9 to suck money in then pull it out late and so many other factors it makes the game unbearable, but it's so much fun
In 25 years of wagering if u want one system that seems to work or at least keep your head above water it's if u see 2 horses under 2/1 take the higher of the 2......always seems like a strong play
8/5 vs 4/5
3/2 vs 1/1
6/5 vs 3/5
Don't know why always seems to work
Good luck inbox me if u have any other questions
Last edited by Grady Seasons; 07-29-2017 at 07:06 PM.