Good job. You have provided sufficient evidence of your coolness. One step closer to acceptance.

50k is one unit, not a fkn lifetime achievement.

Shut. Up.

Also quite a bad gambler.

The best horse bettor on the planet is George Mahaven aka Groovin Mahoovin.

I went to Saratoga recently. I just cannot wrap my head around the pari-mutual stuff. I know there are groups out there that kill horse racing, but for the life of me I do not see how its possible. You bet on a horse at 10/1, thinking hes more like a 5/1 dog. Eventually people see the same thing you do and money comes in on him. He closes at 4/1. You get 4/1!! You bet on a 5/1 horse at 10/1 and end up with a -EV wager. It seems like noob city to me. I asked a couple guys who sort of looked like they knew what they were doing about it and it was like I asked them if I could **** their wife in the ass. Their reactions were a mixture of confusion, anger for some reason, and incredulous. Like IIII was the one who didnt get it. "You cant be greedy!" said one of them to me.

Anyone care to offer any insight at all at how one can possible expect to make long term money betting in pari mutual markets?

You're incredibly naive.

Hi like,

as somebody who grew up betting horses and sports but mainly horses this game is nearly impossible short term and long term there are so many variables

Takeout and rake is brutal, sometimes 33 percent, and then a thing called "breakage" which u really don't hear about, breakage is when a horse pays 6.40 to win, when u break it down the horse really pays 6.57 but it gets rounded down, New York throws u a bone and gives you 6.50 in that spot

To put into perspective $20 win bet returns...

6.40 = $64
6.57 = 65.70

Over time that 1.70 adds up and again that's not even counting the 18 percent win takeout

Now u have trainers trying with horses trainers taking a horse out for the first time, drugs, shipping, track conditions, small pools (can be a positive) sharp money, late money, conditional wagering, people holding pools hostage by hammering horse early to 1/9 to suck money in then pull it out late and so many other factors it makes the game unbearable, but it's so much fun

In 25 years of wagering if u want one system that seems to work or at least keep your head above water it's if u see 2 horses under 2/1 take the higher of the 2......always seems like a strong play

8/5 vs 4/5
3/2 vs 1/1
6/5 vs 3/5

Don't know why always seems to work

Good luck inbox me if u have any other questions

Thanks but that... that isn't really what I'm talking about

I just dont get how you can expect to make money when you have almost no idea what price you're getting? I saw some horses open at 20/1 close at less than 10/1. If I bet on the steelers -4 early in the week, and it closes at -7.5...I mean I cant even imagine actually getting -7.5!

I'm sure I am missing something. Perhaps the sharps also can handicap how much money is going to come in on the race and on what horses? I cannot fathom how that would be possible but who knows.

Or maybe they dont bet in the pari mutual market and there are other, normal ways to bet on horses? I clearly dont know much about horse racing and this weekend was my first real exposure to it.

I was thinking I wanted to bet on horses that would close at a price worse than I got, aka beating the closing line, but I thought about it later and maybe you actually want to lose to the closing line in pari mutual? That doesn't right either though, lol. This has been bugging me!

I saw a horse go from 10/1 to 9/1 to 8/1 like 10 minutes before race and Im running up to the counter trying to get my bet in on 9/1 then I was like wait...I get the price at close?? HOW DOES THIS WORK!?

If you don't like your odds you cancel your bet.

Can you really cancel bets?

CA tracks yes. Not sure about other markets.

Like, many "rebate shops" have a thing called "conditial wagering" u can program you want nothing lower then x odds and if it dips below at a certain mtp your play is automatically canceled

Check your PMs

oooooh. Well then that makes a lot of sense, thanks. Just put a little bit on every horse and cancel everything that you dont like 10 mins before post? Sounds like a huge pain in the ass but at least I can wrap my head around how its possible

Also think its funny that not one person I talked to ever mentioned anything about this. Seems like the only way to possibly make money and I bet the majority of bettors dont even know it.

I wonder what the implications are for "late steam".

I suggest you collect some stats on late odds moves (up, down, flat) and their subsequent placing. The results may surprise you.

Not looking to start betting horses whatsoever. Just wanted some clarification on pari mutuel stuff.

They also have systems that control all exactas, they have a model where if there EV payout on a 7-4 exacta is $16 they will have a program that bets it down to 16.......these "wagering cartels" have rebates that can't be beat, $33 on 100 at times and tracks cater to them........let me find a good interview

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/new...-responds.html

Interesting read on cartels and pool dominance


http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/new...on-bettor.html

Thanks for the links. Didnt really get the first one but in the second one, a "top bettor" said this:
"What we do, without giving away the whole secret, if we figure a horse should pay 7-1 and he's currently paying 9-1, how much money does it take to bring him down to 7-1? If it takes $50, that's the wager. If it takes $500,000, that's the wager."

What does this mean? Why would he WANT to bring the odds down to 7:1?

There are handicapping techniques/systems/software in both sports and horse racing which can consistently tell you the direction of the line move once the Overnight Line (sports) and Morning Line (horses) come out.

RickJ is the sports handicapper who provides this information to his subscribers and is correctly hitting over 80% on the direction of these moves in baseball over the past two seasons. I have a personal friend who does not market himself that has a similar program for horses however that plays differently as you are only getting paid what the odds go off at unlike sports where getting in on the overnight line is huge EV if you know in advance what the number is projected to close at.

There is fixed odds in horce racing too you know...

the guys who won millions didn't do it off of totes

He doesn't want to bring it to 7:1 but I am assuming he means that he is getting edge with all those bets until it's 7:1..

anyways 9:1 into 7:1 wouldn't be worth anyways times anyways but yeh

To answer OP's question there's a few horse bettors that made a billion from betting on horses. Hong Kong is massive for sharps, as are other countries. USA obviously not but the biggest gambler in the world still bets into the US pools and although he profits hugely from rebates he is still making a ROI in the US on his bets even if its a couple percent. Regarding horse racing websites as in forums don't bother as they would be at least 10 years behind poker and sports betting forums.

There's a heap of touts in horse racing, nearly more touts then bettors just kidding but geez just to give you a example I follow about 40 people on twitter that IMO lead the way in horse racing/betting knowledge and more then half of them are touts, i mean I ask my self consistently why i follow some of them haha but its just a source for betting/bookmaker info that I mostly interested in not there picks, and its 10 minutes of reading about a game I'm also interested in. Nothing like two touts trying to show each other up, so there's some comedy involved at times too

I'm not sure if sports betting is nearly 100% model based these days but horse racing isn't. Its a combination of model players, trip handicappers (video watchers) and data players. And unlike sports betting where there are 2 teams in many sports obviously not all, horse racing averages 10 to 14 horses per race so a heap more variables come into betting the horses.

I mainly trade and bet the UK horseracing, so might differ slightly - but there is close to 11,000 races a year.
Your average per race doesn't have to be huge to make a substantial amount, i.e averaging $10 a race tax free (in the UK)
That is speaking from more of a trading point of view rather than outright betting