Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
Fk the haters. You just made my top 10 power ranking. Then again every other team massive disadvantage against clear #1 overall n00b.
Yes, your example was kinda dumb, but you actually posted real content. That already makes you a 1%er. And I don't think its regurgitated. (BTW Poogs that post recently was quite good and I was impressed. Your English skills have really made it. Congrats.)
If I was to transport myself back in time years ago, lets assume I somehow end up with a large edge + large size position. (IE the synthetic you end up with on a non-simultaneous event with a parlay or teaser.) Obv I wanna eat everything up at 0EV or better. And there are no reasonable solutions for derivs. But what would one do if they simply had +900 for a -300 fave for 18% of their BR. How would I go about solving that?
Not that its useful anymore really, but
For your simple situation (solving for one variable) I suggest MS solver or its open source equivalent as the easiest method.
You can find an exact solution by setting up an EG equation, taking its 1st derivative, then set to zero.
But with foreknowledge that you can later hedge into a position, you are probably better off wagering more than Kelly tells you, which was my point above. The calcs for that require numerical methods which I'm guessing go beyond what most here want or care to understand.
A good example would be properly sizing a futures WS bet, understanding that there will likely be decent (i.e. +EV or short price) hedge opportunities in individual series games going forward.