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Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with?

06-02-2024 , 05:34 AM
Hello. I suspect this method is not very effective because I have never heard anyone using it

I start by making two identical small bets compared to my roll on very likely outcomes, as individuals. If one or both bet fails, I make a big enough bet on only one very likely outcome that my return would still give me a profit with 1fail-1win/2fail-1win etc. I always go back to my original small bet size when I win with the bigger bet size.

If I explained myself badly, this example should show how it is still profitable to loose the first 2/3 bets.
These two are starting/ending at roughly the same time. And I play them as individuals:
1 USD X 1,15 Loss
1 USD X 1,20 Loss .

Later:
20 USD X 1,20 Win

Total bet size: 22 USD. Profit: 2 dollars.

Then I start again with my small bets.


I have not been limited on the Euro site I play on, but I have only been doing this for a short time.

Does this sound ineffective to you, compared to other methods you know of? Does this method even have a name?

Thank you
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote
06-03-2024 , 02:52 PM
lol this is the martingale 'system'. Doubling your bet every time you lose. Anyone who has ever placed more than a few bets has had this thought cross their mind. It'll work until it doesn't. Eventually youll have a run where you lose 4 or 5 in a row and youll be wiped out. Im sure you wont listen to me though so keep doing it and report back in a month
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote
06-05-2024 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adult Poogs
lol this is the martingale 'system'. Doubling your bet every time you lose. Anyone who has ever placed more than a few bets has had this thought cross their mind. It'll work until it doesn't. Eventually youll have a run where you lose 4 or 5 in a row and youll be wiped out. Im sure you wont listen to me though so keep doing it and report back in a month

Thanks for answering.

What I do is slightly different than what I posted, and I am deeper rolled than you probably think. Even 1,20 is rare for me now. I choose bigger favorites.

Usually, I am involved in 3 bets at the same time. And they all have to fail for the 4th bet to be 0,25% of the remaining roll. Three losses in a row have not happened in 500 bets, and when it finally happens I am still a massive favorite to win the 4th bet of course for less than 0,5% of that days starting roll.

I do not see this as a thing to be in just for profit though. There must be something better.

I do not know of many other methods though. I was involved in Matched betting some years ago, but although profitable it was the most annoying thing I have been involved with. It really does not suit me(somewhat visually impaired)

Last edited by Liquorice; 06-05-2024 at 12:05 PM.
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote
06-05-2024 , 12:39 PM
There are no self-weighted methods to turn a losing bettor into a winning bettor.

That is, if you're choosing your bet sizes according to some fixed scheme, and not an analysis of a probability of the underlying event, then you're wasting your time.

If you think you found 'guaranteed profit' then you're doing the math wrong.
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote
06-05-2024 , 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil S
There are no self-weighted methods to turn a losing bettor into a winning bettor.

That is, if you're choosing your bet sizes according to some fixed scheme, and not an analysis of a probability of the underlying event, then you're wasting your time.

If you think you found 'guaranteed profit' then you're doing the math wrong.
It is not guaranteed that your child will be shorter than 8 feet, but how often will something that is 90% likely to happen not happen 11 times in a row? That is basically what has to happen for me to stay on the minus side for good. I am sure I would have lost interest/died or got limited before that day.
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote
06-06-2024 , 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liquorice
It is not guaranteed that your child will be shorter than 8 feet, but how often will something that is 90% likely to happen not happen 11 times in a row? That is basically what has to happen for me to stay on the minus side for good. I am sure I would have lost interest/died or got limited before that day.
That doesn't have to be an abstract question, You can do the math to determine that.

But, short answer:

---On any pre-chosen 11 trials, it will be very rare to happen.

--If you make 1,000,000 bets over time (number randomly chosen), then it is very likely that it will happen at some or multiple 11 streak of trials.
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote
06-09-2024 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liquorice
It is not guaranteed that your child will be shorter than 8 feet, but how often will something that is 90% likely to happen not happen 11 times in a row? That is basically what has to happen for me to stay on the minus side for good. I am sure I would have lost interest/died or got limited before that day.
Where did you pull the 90 percent from?

How are you choosing which wagers to make, that would be anywhere near that kind of probability?

Once you can answer THAT question, then you can skip the idiotic betting pattern and just make smart wagers according to the chance of winning the bet, compared with the payout for winning.
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote
06-10-2024 , 07:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil S
There are no self-weighted methods to turn a losing bettor into a winning bettor.

That is, if you're choosing your bet sizes according to some fixed scheme, and not an analysis of a probability of the underlying event, then you're wasting your time.

If you think you found 'guaranteed profit' then you're doing the math wrong.
This is the answer.

There is no way to turn a combination of bad bets into a good bet.

Its like the economy or with science. You cant get more out of something than you produce. You have to be making positve EV wagers, period. But again, you probably wont listen to anyone to keep doing it and report back. We'll see.
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote
06-15-2024 , 02:43 PM
Have moved on to value betting now.

I'm on a site that does not limit people, but they are quicker than I like to change their Odds. Around 20% of my attempted bets are not accepted because they are in the process of changing the odds.


Thanks for participating.
Is this guaranteed profit method effective enough to stick with? Quote

      
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