Well the other side has Obama -350. Is there still value in that. Obama has to win 78.5% of the time to be neutral ev, correct?

Obama backers will tell you there is value in that line, but they haven't been able to push the market to their own projection once, so what does that tell you about the value of their opinion?

Obama backers have nothing to do with the line. I'm not an Obama backer, yet I'm betting on him.

lol wat

lol now the other way in CO

when is the US going to get a nonpartisan electoral commission and do away with electronic voting machines

http://www.cbs42.com/content/localne...OFu4meIFQ.cspx

democrats are poor.

Romney looks solid in VA

no matter who wins obama or romney me and tomg will still be making money as long as them mexican borders are open

Someone (presumably without other outs) is betting Romney hard on 5Dimes and creating a lot of arbs.

A lot of the Romney movement across the board started around 1pm EST. A friend in London said the (always reliable) European press was calling it the closest election ever, so I'm thinking a lot of money came in on Romney at +400 then after the Euros got home from work.

Intrade has had an arb for months. Pinnacle had all lines down until a little while ago, so nobody could use them as a source. 5Dimes has an arb every 2 minutes. Pretty much the weirdest day of "sports" betting I can remember considering no public news.

I predict Obama makes a quick move to -1000 when some of the East Coast polls start closing.

Stan James has Ds to control senate at 1/4 (-400?) idk if its a reputable book but thats free money given the Ds will have 51-55 seats and the line is basically set at 53.5 id say with variance of 1.5 on the upper side and 2.5 on the lower side.

Pretty reputable in Europe.

The bet is better value than anything else available just about. -400 is beyond amazing, the true line is closer to -1800 for Ds to control senate, the Rs would have to win every flip senate race plus an unexpected one to get the Ds below 51 (assuming King in ME counts as a D that is, which I assume he does, but would have to read the rules - they offer odds on a tie too so I assume 50/50 counts as a tie rather than a whichever party controls the presidency and tiebreaking vote controls it)

wiseguys just steamed obama; pinny no vig now at -404

gObama! Big move everywhere but InTrade. I'm starting to think InTrade is creating the value so that every sharp in the World will vow to keep $50,000 on deposit there at all times.

Yep. Wiseguys going HAM on 1K election market with NBA slate currently blue circled at 30K limits.

Because the methods being used are so similar amiright?

Grunching here... is taking Romney +425 just burning money?

Try betting and what will almost certainly happen is they book $1.30 and say the rest has been rejected by their traders. This book has the lowest limits on these markets around and is near scam as far as betting (is reputable and will pay, but what I'm saying here they do this all the time). If you were to be $1000 on the +320 (or whatever the other side is) they'd take it no problem (assuming the line is that far off). 100% serious - I'm not exaggerating here.

Off topic note in case anyone does try to deposit and bet it. If you deposit here with Skrill (Moneybookers) you are restricted from betting sports. They then require you to wager in casino or poker room before cashing out, or cash out and pay an admin fee for depositing and cashing out without turning over balance. This is listed in their rules but obviously most sports bettors are not going to read that rule and they just end up trapped by it.

lol

a mod who actually knows what he is talking about wrt sports betting (well anything for that matter)

haven't seen this in 3+ years

Yes and no. One can get down some serious money right now, but I don't think it's possible to be a wiseguy at an event that happens every four years.

Imo yes. You can probably also get better than +425 right now (still burning money though). Obama is at -600 on 5dimes.

Edit: disregard above figures, they dropped again.

It was $5K a little before he posted.

OFF THE BOARD FOR ME

IS IT RIGGED??

-440 and +350 on 5D right now. Its bouncing all over the place

It's back it went offline shortly.

Edit to add: It's getting lit up too. $1K per bet also was $5K earlier (or was when first came back anyway, it came right back down)