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Old 03-18-2021, 05:28 AM   #2026
CodythePATRIOT
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Lee Westwood makes cut -200
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Old 03-18-2021, 05:48 AM   #2027
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Newman! (seinfeld style ...but yeah Niemann )
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Old 03-18-2021, 08:29 AM   #2028
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

fml, excel was freezing every time i did anything, even when scrolling about

could barely even spit out my 20 lineups let alone finish the sim

i know it's too late to be actionable but you shouldn't be making any decisions on this anyway

here's the dfs point ranking though after my wind model decided am advantage was 12.5%, as you can see it's kind of all over the place

Rank Golfer
1 Joaquin Niemann
2 Russell Henley
3 Cameron Tringale
4 Doug Ghim
5 Brendan Steele
6 Sungjae Im
7 Talor Gooch
8 Matt Jones
9 Adam Scott
10 Cameron Percy
11 Matthew NeSmith
12 Harold Varner III
13 J.T. Poston
14 John Huh
15 Wyndham Clark
16 Rory Sabbatini
17 Chris Kirk
18 Adam Hadwin
19 Adam Long
20 Jim Furyk
21 Mackenzie Hughes
22 Richy Werenski
23 Chez Reavie
24 Lucas Glover
25 Zach Johnson
26 Cameron Davis
27 Kevin Streelman
28 Jhonattan Vegas
29 James Hahn
30 Luke List
31 Nate Lashley
32 Keegan Bradley
33 Dylan Frittelli
34 Anirban Lahiri
35 Aaron Wise
36 Pat Perez
37 Charl Schwartzel
38 Patton Kizzire
39 C.T. Pan
40 Ryan Armour
41 Hank Lebioda
42 Rob Oppenheim
43 D.J. Trahan
44 Chase Seiffert
45 Rickie Fowler
46 Jason Dufner
47 Patrick Rodgers
48 Byeong Hun An
49 Mark Hubbard
50 Chesson Hadley
51 Denny McCarthy
52 Stewart Cink
53 Bo Hoag
54 Kevin Chappell
55 Padraig Harrington
56 Tom Hoge
57 Russell Knox
58 Michael Gligic
59 Sepp Straka
60 Peter Malnati
61 Xinjun Zhang
62 Nick Taylor
63 Beau Hossler
64 Phil Mickelson
65 Vincent Whaley
66 Robert Streb
67 Vaughn Taylor
68 Ted Potter, Jr.
69 Michael Thompson
70 Brian Stuard
71 Henrik Norlander
72 Brice Garnett
73 K.J. Choi
74 Harry Higgs
75 Kiradech Aphibarnrat
76 Roger Sloan
77 Austin Cook
78 Adam Schenk
79 Steve Stricker
80 Erik van Rooyen
81 Scott Stallings
82 Ryan Moore
83 Maverick McNealy
84 Grayson Murray
85 Bronson Burgoon
86 Scott Harrington
87 Graeme McDowell
88 Jim Herman
89 J.J. Spaun
90 Sam Ryder
91 Kyoung-Hoon Lee
92 Will Gordon
93 Troy Merritt
94 Jamie Lovemark
95 Scott Brown
96 Brian Gay
97 David Hearn
98 Andrew Landry
99 Seung-yul Noh
100 Jimmy Walker
101 Joseph Bramlett
102 Kristoffer Ventura
103 Hudson Swafford
104 Rafa Cabrera Bello
105 Keith Mitchell
106 Alex Noren
107 Sean O'Hair
108 J.B. Holmes
109 Tyler Duncan
110 Sung Kang
111 Robby Shelton
112 Luke Donald
113 Tyler McCumber
114 Hunter Mahan
115 Brandon Wu
116 Sebastian Cappelen
117 Rafael Campos
118 Satoshi Kodaira
119 Martin Trainer
120 Brandon Hagy
121 Vijay Singh
122 Bo Van Pelt
123 Rhein Gibson
124 Zach Zaback
125 Shane Lowry
126 Chase Koepka
127 Ian Poulter
128 Wesley Bryan
129 Lee Westwood
130 Camilo Villegas
131 Kelly Kraft
132 Matt Wallace
133 Michael Kim
134 Tom Lewis
135 William McGirt
136 Marcelo Rozo
137 Henrik Stenson
138 Ryo Ishikawa
139 Erik Compton
140 Martin Kaymer
141 Lucas Herbert
142 Stephen Stallings
143 Alan Morin
144 Kamaiu Johnson
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Old 03-18-2021, 06:24 PM   #2029
belvedere91
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
iirc the datagolf betting model loses money every year

that's not to say they are wrong or have a bad process, just don't get tied to their system since it obviously can be improved upon

regarding westwood, another way to look at it is he's always been a great golfer and great golfers will have good runs in them the same way the roulette wheel will sometimes hit #14 twice in a row and they don't tear apart the machine looking for an error when it happens

i'm running my sims now, will post when they are done, mind you this is "rickroll learns to sim" not "bet these lines"
Per their tracking, yes they would lose money if they bet everything they showed value on. But above a certain threshold, which I think is how most people bet, they have been profitable the last couple of years. Their actual "betting results" show a profit but I'm not sure if it's actually things they are betting, or theoretical profits based on what they "could bet" (but not necessarily at scale since they don't appear to do well against Pinny and BM). I have been betting golf for a few years pretty successfully but I am new to modeling and really just starting to get into coding / stats. I have been pretty successful using them as a reference point outside of situations that in my opinion they don't do a good job of dealing with, which there are a lot of. Welcome any feedback on any of this. Also would love to see the logit regression tutorial if anyone still has a link.
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Old 03-18-2021, 06:36 PM   #2030
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

BTW I do not blindly bet any of DG's stuff ever. I also make a lot of adjustments based on factors that I don't believe they account for. And I agree with RSigley that they are overweighting course history now. It is funny how they did a total 180 because for years they were adamant that course-specific adjustments shouldn't be made (which is laughable) ... Course history is a funny concept because it's really meaningless by itself in my opinion unless there is a natural explanation for what is happening. It is really just course fit that hasn't been accounted for by the model. It could be other things like shape of holes, a course they play a lot or just feel comfortable at, but personally I try to resist most of the narrative explanations that aren't based on how a guy plays golf. It can definitely be deeper than just the SG categories which it seems like is all they care about. However, there is also pretty obviously a ton of noise in course history so you have to be very careful and it's better to err on the side of not making strong adjustments imo. In situations where I believe a course is pretty neutral in terms of favoring any specific type of player I am content to essentially ignore it. E.g. Finau at Phoenix Open - he had MCed like four years in a row and everyone kept talking about how bad his CH was. Well there is really nothing about that golf course that disadvantages him. It's a very neutral course in terms of what it favors and it's visually open OTT which I think helps him. Lo and behold he was runner up last year and really should have won. Sample size of 1 doesn't mean anything but point is I am very wary of CH when it is not aligned with course fit.
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Old 03-18-2021, 06:42 PM   #2031
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Another thing on CH that I dont think the market accounts for is that players' profiles can change a lot over time especially as they get older. Phil for example, is really a different player with respect to the competition than he was in 2007 when he won the Players. Completely different actually. He used to be longer and a much better iron player and just way better all around. Giving him the same bump for course history is kind of non-sensical if you know that he's a different type of golfer now. Same could be said for many other guys going through ebbs and flows in their career. Guys learn how to putt, get longer, improve their short-games every year. There's so much more nuance that just doing regressions on the entire player population and applying their indiscriminately. If people disagree or have better ideas, please share! I could talk about this **** all day lol
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Old 03-19-2021, 02:18 AM   #2032
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by belvedere91 View Post
Another thing on CH that I dont think the market accounts for is that players' profiles can change a lot over time especially as they get older. Phil for example, is really a different player with respect to the competition than he was in 2007 when he won the Players. Completely different actually. He used to be longer and a much better iron player and just way better all around. Giving him the same bump for course history is kind of non-sensical if you know that he's a different type of golfer now. Same could be said for many other guys going through ebbs and flows in their career. Guys learn how to putt, get longer, improve their short-games every year. There's so much more nuance that just doing regressions on the entire player population and applying their indiscriminately. If people disagree or have better ideas, please share! I could talk about this **** all day lol
i'm no expert but I assume recency is weighted heavily in most models

ideally my dates would be rolling but that's too complex for excel but i assign multiples based on how recent so this year is 10x, last year 5x, year before 4x etc so this was someone who was really good 6 years ago gets some credit but not enough to overcome his performance of recent years

i also started off only going back 5 years into historical data, do 7 years now cause i already have it so why not

just realized how low lowry and westwood are on that list lol, man i got some major leaks to plug - but overall things looking good thus far as i'm super exposed to matt jones and russell henley due to those projections so it's a nice return to pga dfs even if it's of the broken clock is correct twice a day variety

hoping to get er done via python 100% by end of year, waiting 3 minutes on excel every time i switch cells is a horrible experience nobody should ever be subjected to
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Old 03-20-2021, 12:10 PM   #2033
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I was hoping to get back into it, but I've taken on more responsibilities at school. This year already has been busier and tougher to devote time to running my sims (which weren't perfect but were evolving).

Now, I'll be teaching Honors Precalculus for the last 9 weeks for the teacher who'll be on maternity leave. It'll be a new experience for me, but I wanted to help.

For now, I'm mostly just clicking buttons... somewhat poorly. Still looking at and using data.

Weighting the last 3 years of data 4-3-2.

Gonna add in OWGR to capture what SG-Diff doesn't. Also, I'm thinking about OWGR-Diff to show the change of a player just this year to show a recent form component (again not captured by some metrics). OWGR includes all events. SG omits unmeasured rounds.

Just tinkering.
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Old 03-21-2021, 12:05 PM   #2034
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Remember when I said I was basically just clicking buttons?

I saw a bunch of touts on Twitter posting their Euro betting cards, so I placed a few.

Higgo +3872
Nienaber +4450
Guido (after round 3) +4000

and

Harding +4615

Bad DK and bad outright process leads to dumb luck. I'll take it!

Got a few PGA outrights with a shot.

Lowry +2250
Bradley +4500
Mccarthy +9550
+ 2 MC Guys

After Round 3
Cam Davis +10050
Streb +6243
Garnett +5350
JB +1159 (hoping his slow play affects Jones)
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Old 03-27-2021, 10:09 AM   #2035
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Promising weekend for me.

Outrights
Seamus Power +10550
Uihlein +6050
Garnett +4922
Tom Lewis +4250

Mack Hughes +17550
Harman +8550
EVR +17550

DK
Main Lineup got 5/6
Rahm, Hughes, Perez, Spieth, Harman, (Hovland)
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Old 03-27-2021, 11:15 AM   #2036
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Oh, and I got a couple 6/6 in the Puntacana tourney, too.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:35 PM   #2037
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I've been having some luck just betting longshots each week. I think there is value there as the top players are highly overvalued and most weeks are a crapshoot on tour. I usually spread small bets around approx 10 longshots (usually 100-1 or better) that I think have a legit chance. So far this year I won with Streb at 400-1 and Cink at 100-1. I had Ted Potter at 600-1 last week but one bad round sunk his chances.

This week I have Perez 180-1, Steele 125-1, Jones 100-1, Werenski at 300-1, Potter at 600-1, and Streb at 400-1.

Most weeks are a blank of course but I think longshots are +EV overall given how unpredictable the results usually are. Too much money goes towards guys like JT, Bryson, Rahm, etc. at odds like 12-1.
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Old 06-05-2021, 03:50 PM   #2038
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Is there any international or crypto site where I can bet any 3/2 ball? I'm sick to death of UK sites cherry picking which matchplays they offer a price on
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Old 06-05-2021, 08:43 PM   #2039
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rahm gets told hes got the coronies walking off the course with 6 stroke lead after round 3....brutal
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