Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-07-2021, 04:44 PM   #2001
PokerHero77
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: And I haven't been to Europe
Posts: 3,596
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Tough scoring today, Matt Wallace shot 71 and that is the only sub par score in the clubhouse so far. This is way tougher than avg US Open conditions.
PokerHero77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2021, 12:50 AM   #2002
navyvol1998
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 62
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Appears to be some quite a bit of value in some longshots this week. Took a small bit on Higgs at 600-1. Lots of value in the 100-1 range as well.
navyvol1998 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2021, 02:18 AM   #2003
LFC_USA
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
LFC_USA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 17,859
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Took Reed at 40:1 and Im at 55:1 for my darts this week. Love one of my DK lineups which means its sure to be a disaster.

Did a draft with 3 other buddies just for a sweat this weekend. $100 a piece. Winner take all. Golfer to win only. No scoring system. If a longshot wins then we'll payout the highest finisher. Obv it's only 4 guys so it's really just a crap shoot with no real "better team" but for a laugh any of these 4 teams stand out to you? (teams in columns from top to bottom)



LFC_USA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2021, 02:39 AM   #2004
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 11,013
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

3 1 2 4

all pretty close imo though, like really had to think about it and kept changing my mind and still very unsure

if that is the order of the draft you guys were crazy like scheffler and ancer fall that far imo

fields like this so stacked with talent kind of hard to get much separation
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2021, 03:10 AM   #2005
LFC_USA
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
LFC_USA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 17,859
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

That is the order it went in. I thought 4 would be the consensus with 2 of the favorite falling to 4. I'm 2 fwiw and like my team. Like you said though there is zero separation so it's as good as just randomizing guys to have a sweat on the final day no matter what, just a little more fun way of doing it
LFC_USA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2021, 11:57 AM   #2006
El Sueno
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 69
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

The move from -155 to -240 on Fitzpatrick > Molinari was kind of incredible. I couldn't find any news on Twitter about injury. Anyone else see anything?

Bonus to wake up this morning and see Fitz in the lead....figured the massive CLV would end in tears with a +5 front nine.
El Sueno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2021, 05:31 PM   #2007
Calpeman
centurion
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 123
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Bet Thomas > Hovland in round 1 (live bet). Was graded as a loss as soon as they finished the round, but now 4 hours later Hovland received a 2-stroke penalty making Thomas the winner. What is standard in a situation like this?
Calpeman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2021, 06:37 PM   #2008
gmcarroll33
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
gmcarroll33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Losing my bankroll on Paul Casey
Posts: 6,186
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm fully prepared to be highly pissed off at the end of Sunday when I have pre-tourney bets of Matthew Fitzpatrick, Chris Kirk, Paul FKN Casey, Abraham Ancer, Corey Conners, and Louis.
gmcarroll33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2021, 06:45 PM   #2009
LFC_USA
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
LFC_USA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 17,859
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I got Sung Jae at 55:1. ONE TIME!
LFC_USA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2021, 09:48 AM   #2010
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,434
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I had a pretty major disaster before lock on Thursday. I had max entered the $1 Short Game with 20 lineups I was happy about + putting my top lineups into some other Single Entry contests. I put them all into a few other cheapo contests ($0.25 40x and stuff like that).

About 2 hours before lock, I went to export my lineups to CSV (which I now think is not a thing) so I could calculate my ownership, and I accidentally exported 1 lineup to all 90 contests I had entered. So, those 2 hours before lock were not fun.

So, in my haste, I scrambled to just change things around, and as a result, I'm having a terrible week.

My 4 best lineups got 5/6. After a few weeks of marginal profit, I will be dumping it all back and more. Might have to make a deposit, too. LOLMe
Precept24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2021, 01:54 PM   #2011
GusJohnsonGOAT
SESwamiGOAT
 
GusJohnsonGOAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 15,324
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Could be worse, you could've lost a winner take all showdown by .05 yesterday when all you needed was Homa or Knox to hit just one of their last 3 under 5 feet putts. Oh yeah, and now JT laughing my face playing much better today than yesterday when he was rostered by me.

Hopefully Ancer or Casey can pull this out and save my week. Not been great.
GusJohnsonGOAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 02:59 PM   #2012
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

we got a sweat boys

currently 9th, 13th, and 89th in the milly maker with 50+ holes left on them

hoping to be the second person to win it from this thread after Iowa!

send your thoughts and prayers to chris kirk please


Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 03-14-2021 at 03:05 PM.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 03:45 PM   #2013
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 11,013
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Gl sigs ship it
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 04:16 PM   #2014
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

probably not even gonna cash now

everyone imploded lol

gpps are the worst never playing these things again
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 04:22 PM   #2015
gmcarroll33
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
gmcarroll33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Losing my bankroll on Paul Casey
Posts: 6,186
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
probably not even gonna cash now

everyone imploded lol

gpps are the worst never playing these things again
Let me join you in the pain. Everybody implodes and Paul fkn Casey and Chris Kirk had to join them all in it.
gmcarroll33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 05:17 PM   #2016
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
we got a sweat boys

currently 9th, 13th, and 89th in the milly maker with 50+ holes left on them

hoping to be the second person to win it from this thread after Iowa!

send your thoughts and prayers to chris kirk please


I've never won one. Please keep my name out of your compulsive lying. Thx.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 07:28 PM   #2017
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I legit thought you won last year when they were running them every week? The big 7k one? I remember seeing you in first and was like wow good job. Maybe there were still holes left? If not sorry
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 08:45 PM   #2018
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
I legit thought you won last year when they were running them every week? The big 7k one? I remember seeing you in first and was like wow good job. Maybe there were still holes left? If not sorry
Nbd. It's a soft spot for me since I can easily do the math on how much I've punted to DK on them over the years. We'll get em at Augusta though I'm sure.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 09:03 PM   #2019
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

yea sorry i wasn't being a dick. gues syou just have to settle for high stakes crusher instead.

but yea it's the usual win in smaller contest then give it all away in the millionaire contests so i can add "draftkings millioniare maker winner" to my bio and be a dfs influencer

would have given away a bunch in the big one but luckily it filled before i made lineups.

hopefully people will come back to bigger euro contests next week. sat in 1ks all weekend and no one joined. barely filled any of the $250 WTA
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 10:08 PM   #2020
GusJohnsonGOAT
SESwamiGOAT
 
GusJohnsonGOAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 15,324
Talking Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

The Players is a total crapshoot and I'll need to remember to not put like any money into it next year. Catch a good number live on a player is how to play it.

I'm guessing pros only play the milly because it's not too expensive for them to max enter and have an advantage over the casual, correct?
GusJohnsonGOAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2021, 10:57 PM   #2021
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 11,013
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

In the early days the milly was a reasonable expenditure because the pros were so far ahead of everyone else because people were just clicking buttons of people they liked

These days the gap separating them is extremely narrow so the absurd rake and top heavy payout (one time a milly had like half of total go to winner) make it more of a sysiphean endeavor that often absorbs profits from other contests

For many it'll always be their white whale
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-15-2021, 10:02 AM   #2022
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
yea sorry i wasn't being a dick. gues syou just have to settle for high stakes crusher instead.

but yea it's the usual win in smaller contest then give it all away in the millionaire contests so i can add "draftkings millioniare maker winner" to my bio and be a dfs influencer

would have given away a bunch in the big one but luckily it filled before i made lineups.

hopefully people will come back to bigger euro contests next week. sat in 1ks all weekend and no one joined. barely filled any of the $250 WTA
I sat out the weekend in Euro because delays make updating my nonsense more cumbersome than it's worth. I am not an important man but since EM2 doens't play Euro, if I skip it too it seems like the games straight up do not run.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2021, 07:08 PM   #2023
PocketTwo393
enthusiast
 
PocketTwo393's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Ireland
Posts: 56
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Man Lee Westwood is some bottler, two weeks in a row now lol :P
PocketTwo393 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2021, 03:01 AM   #2024
belvedere91
stranger
 
Join Date: Mar 2021
Posts: 4
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Any model has issues and I think the problem is people are just blindly betting their recommendations every week

like Ernie Els, Steve Stricker, etc. they obviously have issues with Champions tour players who play PGA events

same with Korn Ferry guys. They're massively overrated.

Then they have a subset of guys they overrate every week. They had Schenk as massive value this week even though he's been horrible for over a year now. And where he's struggling is in the areas this course values.

Their thing is fine but it's too heavy on shots gained data and those issues above. I also think this year they're weighing course history way too much compared to the past. I mean they had Mickelson as a massive favorite over Molinari.

I wouldn't be surprised if most of those movements they posted are movements based on their model. I look at their stuff to see what the market is doing and BO/Pinny's closing is pretty aligned with them.

I mean it's a good time for us when you have people jamming in Ernie Els in 2k head to heads. Take advantage of it.

hi all im new but enjoyed reading through the old posts on this thread. great stuff. Anyone have thoughts on how DG handles super short term form in situations like Westwood this week? I think it's very hard to model these types of situations where a guy has more than one outlier weeks in a row. Obviously they focus a lot on long term form and showed a ton of value on Niemann against him but the line on BM is surprisingly sticky around -170. I am actually pretty closely aligned with DG's number given the favorable draw for Niemann but am also aware that short-term turnarounds seem to be a weakness in dg's model. It's hard to find a lot of historical examples of dudes having multiple (seemingly random) insane weeks in a row...but IME when guys get in random grooves like Westwood it never lasts long.
belvedere91 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2021, 03:20 AM   #2025
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 11,013
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

iirc the datagolf betting model loses money every year

that's not to say they are wrong or have a bad process, just don't get tied to their system since it obviously can be improved upon

regarding westwood, another way to look at it is he's always been a great golfer and great golfers will have good runs in them the same way the roulette wheel will sometimes hit #14 twice in a row and they don't tear apart the machine looking for an error when it happens

i'm running my sims now, will post when they are done, mind you this is "rickroll learns to sim" not "bet these lines"
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:38 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive