Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

[Precept24]

Thanks. The Fantasy Golf Bag podcast threw his name out there. Many of the approach shots this week are going to be from 150-200 and he's fantastic at hitting those within 18 feet.

Now, can he keep up his putting?

It's be better if he wasn't losing Stokes off the Tee.

[4BetBoke]

Not sure, this wind is absolutely nuts. I've definitely not taken it into consideration enough this week, have a few tweaks for the overall strat for next week which I'll post with the picks.

How lol bad was Thomas at 6.0 in a 150 person tournament. It's just so obviously wow bad, but I feel like I need someone else to be as shocked as I am!

Sabbys price really cooled off lately, back to value town. Eyes on Knox and Grillo coming up, too.

[4BetBoke]

Lanto Griffin saved the day to catch an each way for me.

Weekly profit -0.85 units

Total profit +32.0 units

[Precept24]

I did one main lineup and got 6/6 through the cut, but it fizzled out late Sunday night.

Morikawa, Im, Ortiz, Grillo, Vaughan Taylor, and Berger

My other lineups didn't do awful, but didn't have the potential that one had, since everyone was making crazy birdies early in their rounds Sunday. Sadly, bogeys/doubles/others late dashed my hopes of a good profit.

Small loss, but undeterred.

[4BetBoke]

So a slight adjustment to my overall strategy. Lately I've been so bogged down by finding the absolute best price available on everyone, that I've neglected taking good terms on the each way bets. I'm going to take slightly worse prices where it makes sense, bet a little more, and prioritise taking 20% 1-8 or 1-7 for the most part. I'll only take 25% 1-5 if the price is an outlier.

Firing both events this week, so a mega brick will be no good for the profit tally.

The American Express

SungJae Im @19.0 (2.0 units) 20% 1-7
Ben An @26.0 (1.1 units) 20% 1-8
Sabbatini @67.0 (0.6 units) 20% 1-7
Cameron Davis @101.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-8

I think Cameron Davis is a good pick up this week, T9 last week in Hawaii and T3 at the Australian open the week before.

There's likely going to be a very low winning score this week, so really not a bad time to fire some more long shots, though I only have the one. SungJae is getting alarmingly expensive for a guy who hasn't won yet on the PGA tour.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

Viktor Hovland @29.0 (1.2 units) 20% 1-8
Bob Macintyre @36.0 (1.0 units) 20% 1-8
Bernd Wiesberger @34.0 (1.0 units) 20% 1-8

Nothing fancy here, just the usual suspects, though I was tempted by Fitzpatrick and Willet. Interesting to see how much Wallace's price (rightfully) has dropped since last year, he's as high as 56.0 for this tournament.

Gl everyone.

[4BetBoke]

Bob Macintyre withdrew, so has been replaced:

Bryson Dechambeau @ 26.0 (1.2 units) 20% 1-7

[4BetBoke]

Tough week, Wiesberger only came in for 1/4 of an each way in Abu Dhabi after being 1 shot back going into Sunday and Davis and Im fell apart for my each way sweats in California.

Probably my biggest fire and biggest brick to date, life ban for Dechambeau!

Weekly profit -6.55 units

Total profit +25.45 units

[ligastar]

I'm looking to get back in the mix this week or next, as players are starting to get rounds in.

[Precept24]

Any of y'all interested in joining a season long salary cap pool?

Here's the thread where I run through the player costs and stuff.

[rickroll]

Crazy week for me had 6/6 get through the cut and still lost some money, thankfully there was no overlay to chase so only lost like $50

[rickroll]

Originally Posted by Precept24

Any of y'all interested in joining a season long salary cap pool?

Here's the thread where I run through the player costs and stuff.

Don't think I'd be interested unless for nominal amount but posted my thoughts on the player pool just now

[Precept24]

Just saw them. Much appreciated. I'll adjust my thinking.

Wait. Just rechecked. I think you were looking at Post #1 (last year's costs). Post #31 is this year's costs.

I'm in the lowest price pool ($150/team). There is a higher one (I think $500 a team, but way different rules). Like cap is 50, max 8 guys or something like that.

[rickroll]

Lol posted again

[4BetBoke]

Farmers insurance open

Colin Morikawa @31.0 (1.3 units) 20% 1-8
Matthew Wolff @67.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-8
Cameron Champ @71.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-8
Cameron Davis @151.0 (0.25 units) 20% 1-8

Omega Dubai Desert classic

Bernd Wiesberger @29.0 (1.3 units) 20% 1-7
Viktor Hovland @41.0 (0.8 units) 20% 1-7
Kurt Kitayama @71.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-7

[rickroll]

I like the farmers bets

[4BetBoke]

Thanks!

I agree that the farmers picks are better than the euro tour, I was a bit all over the place in Dubai. I had RafaCB at 41.0, Wiesberger at 31.0 and Perez at 34.0 pegged on Monday, but hesitated and the prices got zapped as money came in so I had to rework it.

[4BetBoke]

Been a while since Wiesberger was the solo missed cut in a line up! It hurts, but he's getting benched with Im at these prices.

[DefNotRsigley]

Went overweight on Palmer/Snedeker combos and got a lot of good placing lineups

except they're all paired with Lanto, Munoz, or Scheffler. At least they're 5/6?

[rickroll]

Sigs could use that advice before lock next time only got 2/6 through the cut... Yikes

[DefNotRsigley]

I think Palmer was big chalk. In the $100 single entry double up he's 34.6%



my cash line seems 50/50. 3 high owned, 3 low owned. luckily woodland bombed (he was ~50% owned in double ups)

[DefNotRsigley]

Palmer really bombed day 4. Surprisingly my cash lineup on FD that had 4/6 still cashed everything pretty easy. Wish there was more golf action on FD tho

DK Cash good too but tournaments best score was ~484.5 (one hole remaining from Palmer and a horrible day 3 from Horschel +8) for ~2200nd

How do you win these big 100k tournaments? Just need 6/6 and basically get the top 6 golfers and hope they all hit eagles and have birdie streaks?

[rickroll]

For cash line generally 4/6 is good and 3/6 with 3 top 10s should get you there.

For gpp, you always need 6/6 plus at least multiple guys in top 10 if not outright winner - this is why so much emphasis is on the cheap guys because getting a top 10 from McIlroy is expected but when Chez Reavie or Bronson Burgoon do it that's what wins those things.

[4BetBoke]

Took a 0.25 unit stale price last night on Lieshman @ 4.65 for a small overall loss this week. Kitayama came in for the e/w on the nose, but it was looking like a repeat of Wiesberger starting Sunday 1 back and not placing for a while.

Farmers was overall disappointing, Morikawa lost his head and had a +6 stretch in 4 holes on the back 9 on Saturday which killed the biggest sweat. Champ had a nightmare out of the bunkers on Sunday, his stats from 2019 don't look good: (SAND SAVE PERCENTAGE 37.04% 188TH)

Onto the next one!

Weekly profit -0.9 units
Total profit + 24.55 units

[4BetBoke]

Waste Management Open

Colin Morikawa @31.5 (1.3 units) 20% 1-8
SungJae Im @34.0 (1.0 units) 20% 1-8
S. Scheffler @51.0 (0.7 units) 20% 1-8

Saudi International

A. Ancer @29.0 (1.2 units) 20% 1-7
B. Wiesberger @41.0 (0.8 units) 20% 1-7
R. Cabera Bello @46.0 (0.7 units) 20% 1-7
Z. Lombard @126.0 (0.25 units) 20% 1-7
J. Singh Brar @126.0 (0.25 units) 20% 1-7
S. Soderberg @251.0 (0.15 units) 20% 1-8

The price has cooled on a few of these guys lately, but I'm confident the more forgiving courses coming up are going to be a better fit.

[ligastar]

Ok, back in the saddle.

[All plays are tournament match-ups]

WMO

Na (2.04) vs Reavie