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Old 02-12-2021, 04:01 PM   #1951
jablo1312
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/...h_lone_cypress

last pairing should be teeing off around ~11 AM local time...chances the final 4-5 groups to go out tomorrow get boned by the increasing winds mid-afternoon? I don't know enough about how the course is set up to comment on which holes would be "more" impacted by wind but feels like the whole place is generally exposed af.
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Old 02-12-2021, 04:42 PM   #1952
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I would assume the ocean fronting holes would be most exposed, but not so sure with NW winds. Holes in roughly NW direction are 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 18.
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Old 02-12-2021, 10:28 PM   #1953
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread



curious if this is the 2p2 sharps experience so far this year

Last edited by BetzPH; 02-12-2021 at 10:33 PM. Reason: i suck at pictures
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Old 02-12-2021, 11:31 PM   #1954
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

have been getting annihilated on mu's at bm bol nitro and pph for the past 4 weeks

edit: am probably not "sharp" and am not tracking bet price v. close like noob but anecdotally feels like im running like **** when stuff moves towards me (with the normal caveat that all anecdotes are bullshit and i'm probably just remembing the bad and conveniently forgetting the plays that moved against
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Old 02-13-2021, 02:24 AM   #1955
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Similar boat for me...wouldnt say I’m sharp but I think I’m at least slightly +EV based two years or results. Got wrecked at Phoenix and getting smoked so far this week. Been tracking clv and it’s been slightly positive so I’ll eat those imaginary gains
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Old 02-13-2021, 10:38 AM   #1956
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Having a great year especially in euro

Must not be sharp

Or maybe the issue is every donkey is max betting datagolfs horrible recommendations moving the market.

Good for real sharps who do the work. Bad for people who just follow a model of someone who doesn't even bet
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Old 02-13-2021, 10:44 AM   #1957
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

It also seems to be filtering down to dfs. The % of data golf optimal lineups is amazing and their value plays each week are driving ownership.

If people aren't subscribing to them directly I think other sites are taking their picks into their projections.

Been great for me. Started playing 1k and above only 50/50s and winner take all and having an insane year. Every match is me and golf legend favre444 at the top and datagolf truthers at the bottom.
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Old 02-13-2021, 11:04 AM   #1958
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Having a great year especially in euro

Must not be sharp

Or maybe the issue is every donkey is max betting datagolfs horrible recommendations moving the market.

Good for real sharps who do the work. Bad for people who just follow a model of someone who doesn't even bet
I think you had said in the past you thought DGs modeling was good but they were bad bettors. Do you still think that or do you now think their model isn't good? Backtesting on the 2020 season showed good results but they could have gotten lucky obviously.
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Old 02-13-2021, 11:13 AM   #1959
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Any model has issues and I think the problem is people are just blindly betting their recommendations every week

like Ernie Els, Steve Stricker, etc. they obviously have issues with Champions tour players who play PGA events

same with Korn Ferry guys. They're massively overrated.

Then they have a subset of guys they overrate every week. They had Schenk as massive value this week even though he's been horrible for over a year now. And where he's struggling is in the areas this course values.

Their thing is fine but it's too heavy on shots gained data and those issues above. I also think this year they're weighing course history way too much compared to the past. I mean they had Mickelson as a massive favorite over Molinari.

I wouldn't be surprised if most of those movements they posted are movements based on their model. I look at their stuff to see what the market is doing and BO/Pinny's closing is pretty aligned with them.

I mean it's a good time for us when you have people jamming in Ernie Els in 2k head to heads. Take advantage of it.
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Old 02-13-2021, 12:33 PM   #1960
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Good stuff to know, thanks.

I noticed the Mickelson thing and assumed it was course history related. They had Mickelson vs. Molinari at 48% for tournament, 50% round 1, 44% round 2 (lol shot 80). Market opened like Phil +150 I think.

They seemed to be fading Molinari all over this week.
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Old 02-13-2021, 12:38 PM   #1961
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i think that ties in with their heavy on long form thing

where molinari had a horrible last year but seems to be back
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Old 02-13-2021, 01:15 PM   #1962
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Pinnacle closes within a % or two of my model 95% of the time. That isn't a flex. I just seem to be the only one betting golf right up to post there. And I'm definitely down betting match-ups so far in 2021, so yeah, it checks out.
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Old 02-13-2021, 01:50 PM   #1963
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

good call with streelman tho

had him and swapped him last minute to cam davis who can only get birdies through chip ins like an idiot

at least he will do good in 4 round matchups and a to win ticket that wont win
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Old 02-13-2021, 10:36 PM   #1964
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

have cantlay berger and day so fired in some 0/slightly -EV knox to compound the pain, am i doing this right Iowa!?

Is there anywhere in america you can get decent amounts down on To Win tournament NO bets? Only place I ever see is the new 5D clone and new accounts there its t/w $500. Can we get the Bookmaker golf team on this?
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Old 02-14-2021, 08:25 AM   #1965
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Speith +175 is good value.
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Old 02-14-2021, 10:14 AM   #1966
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

good thing i bet cantlay pre tournament and again at +475 after r4 then

i got spieth fair line +242
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Old 02-14-2021, 11:40 AM   #1967
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Paul Casey at 13/1 going into round 4 has caught my eye.
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Old 02-14-2021, 12:55 PM   #1968
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by jablo1312 View Post
have cantlay berger and day so fired in some 0/slightly -EV knox to compound the pain, am i doing this right Iowa!?

Is there anywhere in america you can get decent amounts down on To Win tournament NO bets? Only place I ever see is the new 5D clone and new accounts there its t/w $500. Can we get the Bookmaker golf team on this?
For sure and No, there isn't.

Had Knox/Casey/Streelman/Tringale as marginal vs BM this AM and Spieth as lololol bad. Definitely some wide error bars on Jordy projections right now but these outright prices imply he is back to being Top 5ish in the world. Glhf with that.
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Old 02-14-2021, 04:09 PM   #1969
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

spieth went from a 2 stroke lead to 3 strokes behind the lead in 5 holes

pretty amazing
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Old 02-14-2021, 04:38 PM   #1970
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

what a boss streelman is. hope he wins. mostly because i have him
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Old 02-15-2021, 01:57 AM   #1971
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

That was a misfire on Spieth for me. It's ok though since relatively small. Not sure why I overestimated him so much in the 4th round. Seems like is on the cusp of getting wins again.
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Old 02-15-2021, 01:59 AM   #1972
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

do you see any of his shots?

half of his tee shots go to the native area

then he's in the middle of nowhere

somehow gets on the green and nails a putt

it's not a sustainable strategy for success
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Old 02-15-2021, 10:46 AM   #1973
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
do you see any of his shots?

half of his tee shots go to the native area

then he's in the middle of nowhere

somehow gets on the green and nails a putt

it's not a sustainable strategy for success
You mean you don't expect him to hole out from 150+ multiple times per tournament?
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Old 02-15-2021, 01:49 PM   #1974
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rahm week
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Old 02-15-2021, 06:06 PM   #1975
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Rahm week
Team Cameron Davis on my end mixed with a couple of 55/1 and under shots+Cameron Smith
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