Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread - Page 78 - Sports Betting

Meandering thoughts incoming, apologies and thanks in advance.

I do not do much golf betting but I will pick off an errant line if I stumble on them. If I bet them all half kelly like I would want to, I inevitably end up overexposed across the field on a few specific outcomes, and any actual win is undercut by the not-insignificant losses across the rest of the golfers backed. Even just having a stake in 4-5 golfers is kind of awkward and makes me wonder whether I'm oversizing some wagers and/or undersizing others, or taking too many stakes to begin with.

Does anybody have a suggestion that's better than treating each line as independent wagers?

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02-04-2021 , 12:33 PM

#1927

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Bet less than 1/2 Kelly is the practical answer to your problem.

Can this be optimized? Maybe, but it's not worth the time and effort in 99.99% of circumstances including yours. Come up with a figure that you are comfortable losing per event and work backwards from there.

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02-04-2021 , 12:36 PM

#1928

qotd

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 129

Is it? that just changes the size of the exposure, but it doesn't actually change the fact that I'm treating dependent events as independent.

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02-04-2021 , 12:48 PM

#1929

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

What markets are you betting? Say you're betting a bunch of Top 20 yes or something like that, Kelly would have you bet more on each one than you would independently since theoretically each bet is a +EG hedge of the other. It gets out of hand fast.

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02-04-2021 , 01:00 PM

#1930

qotd

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 129

So far it's been mostly just outright winners.

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02-04-2021 , 01:12 PM

#1931

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

The same logic applies. If you're trying to be optimal, you'd be taking n% of each +EV guy before the tournament, and after each round, and also betting 0EV or better NOs on your guys as they become available.

When was I really going after this market (fully funded Bet Fair account), I'd usually have 15-20 YES's and 5-10 NO's by the start of the final round plus all my Match Up and DFS action that was usually heavily correlated with all of it. It just doesn't stop.

Given that you're handwaving the most important part and have an "edge" with huge error bars, back of the envelope staking seems appropriate.

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02-04-2021 , 01:17 PM

#1932

qotd

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 129

Thanks, I appreciate the advice. Will try and reevaluate how I handle this.

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02-09-2021 , 01:01 AM

#1933

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

Took a few outrights in after DJ withdrew:

Cantlay +900
Fowler +5500
Tringale +5500
Harman +7100

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02-09-2021 , 07:57 AM

#1934

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

I saw people on Twitter talking about missing out on Jason Day at 50-1 and he's now 33-1.

I don't get it. Dudes Approach game has been awful for longer than Spieth's off-the-tee game.

Edit: I even heard on a podcast, "All the stats are there except for the approach game."

Last edited by Precept24; 02-09-2021 at 08:11 AM.

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02-09-2021 , 02:11 PM

#1935

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

And Spieth almost won last week lol? Your fascination with individual stats is holding you back. Day isn't a world beater anymore, but he's still one of the best players in this field. Those were good bets.

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02-09-2021 , 05:06 PM

#1936

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

I hear what you're saying. To me approach stats are the most important, though. Razor thin margins off the tee, putting isn't sticky, and scrambling comes and goes.

So, while I normally focus on stats to a fault, I think approach stats are a big deal.

Also, I know Day is a world class talent, but he hasn't produced in a while.

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02-09-2021 , 06:22 PM

#1937

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

the quality of this field is pga alternate level

spieth almost winning was hilarious and pushed his masters to win odds down from 90/1 to 22/1

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02-09-2021 , 08:09 PM

#1938

jablo1312

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 139

Ya I was thinking earlier its wild how an event at one of the 3 or 4 best courses in America can barely any of the top 30 PGA golfers to show. They should just do the Pro-Am at like the John Deere or something, the C-list celebs will come play regardless.

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02-09-2021 , 08:27 PM

#1939

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by jablo1312

They're not even doing the Pro-Am nonsense this year. It's just going be cold and rainy and half the guys were all the way in Saudi Arabia last week getting their D's s'd and picking up a bag of cash.

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02-09-2021 , 08:29 PM

#1940

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

I don't know why, but I LOLed at that last sentence.

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02-09-2021 , 08:37 PM

#1941

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

Pebble Beach pro-am event has always been one of the most difficult to fill, They would invite 180 pros (not sure how many now, 156?). 6 hour rounds, spiked greens (hole locations don't change for first 3 rounds), unpredictable weather, difficult courses, playing with amateurs, 3 rounds to not make the cut, etc.

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02-10-2021 , 01:25 AM

#1942

El Sueno

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 69

Ya weather-wise this event is the biggest crap shoot considering the event it is sandwiched between. Then the spot in the calendar is tricky because you have an elevated event at Riv the following week and then a WGC + big events in florida so it's a natural break in the schedule before a busy stretch for top ranked players who are eligible for Riv, Bay Hill and WGCs....in addition to having to play with chops.

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02-10-2021 , 02:18 AM

#1943

BetzPH

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 436

Bovada misclicked while copying bet365 3balls. Cameron Davis is flipped with Patrick Rodgers.

Cameron Davis +220 vs. Grace&Rodgers is nice

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02-10-2021 , 02:37 PM

#1944

BetzPH

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 436

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elves

Stick to topics you understand. I am an expert on golf, golf betting, elections, election betting, as well as finance, beauty, psychology, and human systems. For instance, Kamala Harris, the current favorite to be Biden's VP, has zero chance. Zero. I've explained it in the election betting thread. It is zero, even though she is even money. She simply never gets chosen by Biden. Ever.

trolling through old posts itt and i have to say this is my favorite so far. August 2020. RIP Elves.

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02-11-2021 , 07:43 AM

#1945

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,048

Just loaded up on Cantlay to shoot 69 or better round 1 +125

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02-11-2021 , 07:27 PM

#1946

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,048

Tied course record- lol.

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02-11-2021 , 08:08 PM

#1947

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

Nice bet.

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02-12-2021 , 12:43 AM

#1948

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,048

Thanks.

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02-12-2021 , 06:16 AM

#1949

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,048

What happened to Rickie Fowler? I thought he was a bit younger then he is and seems like his golf game has gotten worse as he’s gotten older. Still rooting for him though.