Nice. I was on Kisner at 45-1. Ended up hedging in the playoff to cover my other bets but let the majority of it ride.

You win some, you lose some.

But more than happy to see Kiz close a 5 shot differnce without a stumble from Streb. Especially given that with the exception of a Kisner Top Ten, the weekend was looking like a skunk. Conners with a share of a Top Ten helped a little as well.

Well done.

I didn't run any simulations, because I haven't had time, but I have gathered and weighted data. A cheap guy on DK that popped for me was...Wesley Bryan.

Wesley Bryan has turned it around off the tee this season so far, he was DFL SG OTT on tour in 2018. Apparently there was some injury issues but his SG OTT for 2017 and 2018 would suggest he was having driver yips/serious issues. Pretty hard to go -1 SG OTT avg. w/o having frequent penalty shots.

So the course with one of the highest premiums on accuracy could be a good litmus test for where he's at. You've probably got some sick leverage with him

He's almost DFL now. Maybe I was wrong.

At least Bryan didn't WD???????

JT worth a punt at +700 5 shots back going into the final day tomorrow?

lol people touting sei young kim

hope you guys saw through the scam

i know my buddy Iowa! was against her too. Me and him are visionaries in LPGA and now everyone is trying to become an expert.

I don't really know anything about women's golf, but I did 2 lineups for the US Open and got 5/6 and 4/6.

HYE JIN CHOI (9.8k), MINJEE LEE (9k), LYDIA KO (8.9k), ANNA NORDQVIST (7.6k), ARIYA JUTANUGARN (7.5k) and 3.2% owned + KATHERINE KIRK (7.2k)

DANIELLE KANG (10.7k), ANNA NORDQVIST (7.6k), ARIYA JUTANUGARN (7.5k) and 3.0% owned, STACY LEWIS (7.4k) with LEXI THOMPSON (9.1k) & ANGELA STANFORD (7.7k)

I was stupid and had Ariya but I thought people would see her #'s made cut so I swapped off her and of course she's crushing. She played her first event when she was 11 and didn't get last. Tells you how tough these LPGA fields are. Kids are regularly playing them. Currently there's 2 amateurs in the top 3

That was my thought on Lexi, but...MC

Any of you LPGA sharps have access to their API? I just made a request for access but am assuming they are selective. Curious if anyone has had any luck, and if they contact you how you explain your use for accessing their data. TIA.

Interesting read from datagolf: https://datagolf.com/analyzing-betting-odds

Hadn't bothered tracking 3-balls at all, looks like there could be some nice edge there

Makes sense. The 3-balls come from euro books (Bet365 and Kambi mostly) which are soft, rarely move their lines, and then BetOnline/Bovada just copy them.

I never really got into it.

I'm surprised their model shows least EV on BM since thats where I have the third most. Circa are Superbook are my highest EV book but their limits aren't that high.

I noticed in their betting results too they seem to be crushing top 20s. 15.5% roi over 717 bets. I usually ignore those markets and just bet to win. Might look into them next year since BO offers them.

Interesting. I had the assumption that BM was probably sharpest given limits.

This year I was using mostly betonline, heritage and bovada for golf and would always try to bet before BM opened cause it seemed like that created a ton of market movement. Seeing data that this was actually happening was satisfying.

I'm surprised how big of a delta they have in their ROIs for rounds and tournaments, and that rounds is higher. Maybe the threshold they are using is an aggressive filtering mechanism, but my general assumption was that tournament ROI would be higher than round ROI if both were profitable given higher variance in one round versus four.

If they're only betting at Bet365 I wonder if Bet365 is just copying certain lines from Pinnacle or other places?

I don't pay attention to B365 but I think Fanduel uses the same lines and thats the behavior I noticed from them. Post same 3-ways at B365 then the day before the tournament post Fully tourney lines after the market has moved.

I could be running good but since 2011 on bookmaker i've placed

PGA
10,417 round h2h bets
5233-4198-986 for 4.96% ROI

4938 full tournament bets
2830-1921-187 for 6.88% ROI

889 to win bets
116-773 for 7.25% ROI (a bunch of these were placed after the 3rd round so slightly higher win rate than expected)

circa/superbook are closer to 10% because they're so bad.

against pinnacle clones it's around 2% for everything.

BM euro is horrible for me tho.

Ten years and my combined ROI is 0.74% over 9,816 bets. Never had a losing year but never had a great one either.

whereas Pinnacle clones euro is closer to 5%

korb ferry tour is where its at tho. 15.48% lifetime ROI. too bad the limits are horrible

Ya KFT looks nice, I tested it out of sample post-covid shutdown and ran at about 12% ROI. I had my EV at like 7-8% so figured I just ran super hot. Either way seems like those matchup odds are lol bad. I'm not doing anything too complex

Only offshore I've found to post h2h regularly is heritage at $100 limits lol. Hoping the PPH I got recently has KFT and I can win some lunch money at $250 limits. LPGA and Seniors could be similar. Seems like they just set odds and forget about them. Tiny limits too, but good size for me as I learn.

Thanks for sharing, always enjoy reading and learning from your posts.

covid was the best with BO posting KFT Matchups at $500-1k limit. They stopped that after two weeks for some reason.

What happens with KFT/Seniors/LPGA/Sunshine/Japan/AusAsia/etc. is they look at the futures market and place two golfers with similar to win odds h2h and just set the line at -115. It was the Tony (RIP) special and everyone would just copy it.

Problem is those fields are so heavy towards a small subset of golfers so the odds are always those golfers <20/1 and the rest of the people really go ignored. So they're using inefficient futures to set inefficient h2h lines.

If I really try I can get down like $250-500 on a KFT/LPGA/Seniors matchup depending on the event. Not worth it financially but it is fun to win so why not. Also helps make sure we are tracking those golfers good in case they move up to the PGA. Lot of value on Zalatoris on PGA early on.

DNR - I'm confused at this post. Are you saying you average around ~2% on Pinny for h2h, tournament, and win bets? Why would this be so different/lower... I thought Pinny offered the best odds... no?

Golf isn't as consistent across books as other sports.

BM regularly opens up h2h's 40-50 cents different than market. For whatever reason I had more success lifetime on BM even tho they have -115 lines too.

Other issue might be I'm only betting at Pinnacle clones which have lower limits. So almost all my pinnacle clone bets are max bets vs. BM which aren't. So that might be an issue too. Big edges being treated the same as small.

I see. So BM is posting h2h's before Pinny? Also, obv you don't have access to Pinny original then right?

BM posts after Pinny. Usually on Tuesday. When BM posts there's usually a couple arbs out there. They take ~10k on opening.

BetOnline copies Pinnacle whenever they post. Usually Monday. They only take ~1k on open.

I think the difference between both is Bookmaker values short term form a lot. You also have to be careful with them and make sure their h2h's have same tee times. If weather is an issue they'll post a lot of early/late splits.

only one golfer over par today

our boy hideki. didn't bet him this week unfortunately

I only did 2 lineups this week and have Deki in both...obvs.

we fading JT tomorrow? can’t be sleeping well