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Old 09-14-2020, 06:36 PM   #1776
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

rip Scheffler

i had a US Open to win bet at 120/1 on him

we can only hope it gives him super powers going forward
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Old 09-15-2020, 03:18 PM   #1777
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

BM is taking tw 5 milly on most of these guys to win. Gotta find the next Shaun Micheel so we can retire.
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Old 09-15-2020, 03:55 PM   #1778
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

who you got this week Iowa!
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Old 09-15-2020, 04:39 PM   #1779
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

too bad Greyson Sigg missed it by collapsing a couple weeks back.

I havent looked at what people are touting, but I'm assuming he's the chalk long odds guy - Will Zalatoris. I have him at 0.9% to win, so basically lil more than 100/1. I saw some 160/1 on him earlier.

My biggest discrepancy between my to win odds and books is of course Dustin Johnson. It's not so much that I hate DJ (I do have him ranked 4th behind Rahm, Thomas, McIlroy at 4.7% to win), but books have him like he's 10-12% to win. That's obviously them letting people make bad bets on one-sided markets. Rahm is another. I have him at 8.1% but books have 9-10%. Morikawa too.

I still need to do some work on the event been a little backed up with baseball and football coming back, but I don't see much value in the to wins this week. Reed a little value, Corey Conners. Then the rest are in the 100/1 shots but they're things like I have the golfer 0.8% to win and the books 0.6%. The Jim Herman type EV that you will never recognize because you'd go broke betting them every week.
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Old 09-15-2020, 05:06 PM   #1780
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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too bad Greyson Sigg missed it by collapsing a couple weeks back.
Sigg was listed on my book at 1000:1, was thinking about taking it and now 750:1
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Old 09-15-2020, 05:08 PM   #1781
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

he's done. doesn't have the clutch gene. dead to me as far as i'm concerned
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Old 09-15-2020, 05:09 PM   #1782
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Then the rest are in the 100/1 shots but they're things like I have the golfer 0.8% to win and the books 0.6%. The Jim Herman type EV that you will never recognize because you'd go broke betting them every week.
Do you have a quantifiable way to determine whether to take a say a mid-pack guy that is 100/1+? Do you have say an edge cutoff point where if edge > x% you take a guy outright and if the edge > y% where y > x you decide that maybe you're not accounting for something? IIRC you mentioned something along these lines with Koepka at PGA Championship.

In my backtesting recently it seems like my win projections are at least in the neighborhood of what the market suggests for the top ranked players, but every event seems to have a handful of guys that fit that busto mold in say the mid-pack range that you mention with Herman.
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Old 09-15-2020, 05:17 PM   #1783
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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who you got this week Iowa!
I haven't bet any outrights yet. Have JT as the closest to good of guys with a real chance but haven't found odds strong enough to bet. It's for the best, having to manually enter an amount instead of clicking max bet at BM would mess with my ego/confidence.
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Old 09-15-2020, 05:41 PM   #1784
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Been loading up on Harman as the top left-handed player at +400 (Harman, Mickelson, Watson, Macintyre)
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Old 09-15-2020, 05:41 PM   #1785
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Sure to end well.
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Old 09-15-2020, 05:46 PM   #1786
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Sure to end well.
A real shame that the esteemed SteveSax doesn't like my bet, hedging out immediately.
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Old 09-15-2020, 06:02 PM   #1787
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Do you have a quantifiable way to determine whether to take a say a mid-pack guy that is 100/1+? Do you have say an edge cutoff point where if edge > x% you take a guy outright and if the edge > y% where y > x you decide that maybe you're not accounting for something? IIRC you mentioned something along these lines with Koepka at PGA Championship.

In my backtesting recently it seems like my win projections are at least in the neighborhood of what the market suggests for the top ranked players, but every event seems to have a handful of guys that fit that busto mold in say the mid-pack range that you mention with Herman.
I usually just stick to things like 50/1 and lower. There are cases like last week the field was ridiculously weak so I didn't mind laying 90/1 on Furyk. In that case I might bet 1-2 that have the highest expected growth. Or the Barracuda championship I had 80/1 on I think Schenk? The "putting doesn't matter" courses are also ones where I might take some longer shots to win. Same idea tho, focus on expected growth. So something might have a higher EV but lower growth. I'd take the growth one.

Realistically you only win a few of this every year. I've been getting about 4-5 from pre-tournament for each tour (4-5 on USA PGA, 4-5 on EURO) [much higher on taking winner in r3/r4, etc.] but I dunno what happened this year. Already won 9 and came close on 2. But also 1-37 this year on Euro PGA and honestly haven't even been close outside of Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez. Just insane positive variance on the real PGA tour.

Korn Ferry/LPGA/Champions I don't mind laying 100/1 because the odds are so bad, but sportsbooks really limit their liability on them.

For the super long shots betting top 20 is probably a better option in terms of return. I mean eventually Jim Herman is going to hit so do you want to lose 1k/week for 40 weeks of the season and then in year 5 finally hit it. If you have an unlimited bankroll sure, but I'm guessing you can get a better return doing other things with that money. Like yolo'ing tesla or kodak stock.

There's of course other real life implications such as if you do eventually hit a 600/1 golfer for a lot of money are they going to pay? Or any brick and mortar sportsbook that would accept that bet probably would ban you way before you actually realize your EV since if you can't beat william hill you're going to go broke anyway.

I'm assuming if anyone even hits the 5 mil to win at Bookmaker it might hurt them financially.
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Old 09-15-2020, 08:53 PM   #1788
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ok that makes sense. Thank you for sharing.
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Old 09-15-2020, 09:24 PM   #1789
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I'm assuming if anyone even hits the 5 mil to win at Bookmaker it might hurt them financially.
Might have to fire you and Rufus
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Old 09-15-2020, 09:53 PM   #1790
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

after last week i wish i was being paid. worst EURO golf slate of the year and break even PGA

betting on PGA scrubs like last week isn't that bad. betting on EURO golf scrubs is another world. impossible to predict
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Old 09-16-2020, 06:06 PM   #1791
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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For the super long shots betting top 20 is probably a better option in terms of return. I mean eventually Jim Herman is going to hit so do you want to lose 1k/week for 40 weeks of the season and then in year 5 finally hit it. If you have an unlimited bankroll sure, but I'm guessing you can get a better return doing other things with that money. Like yolo'ing tesla or kodak stock.
i don't agree with this. since it's 100:1 you're putting down a tiny amount of money every week relative to your bankroll. if you can't wait 5 years then you're going to have a bad time in all sorts of investments, not just super long shots. what is the expected return for that same $1k if you yolo it on some random stock after the same 5 year period? it earns like $50 after 5 years on average. or put it on some schlub golfer and realise that same EV by the end of the weekend. plus tax implications, the fun of tweeting a screenshot of the bet to the golfer on twitter and saying you always believed in him etc i don't think it's close. if you are confident you have an edge you should always bet it. only exception maybe if you are struggling to pay the bills month to month in which case you're probably not making any +EV bets anyway DUCY?
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Old 09-16-2020, 06:44 PM   #1792
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

you can get more love off of stock screenshots on tiktok

e.g.,

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Old 09-16-2020, 06:46 PM   #1793
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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BM is taking tw 5 milly on most of these guys to win. Gotta find the next Shaun Micheel so we can retire.

They’ll take on $5 million in exposure on a single bet, yet CRIS still have $1k per day bitcoin payout limits.
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Old 09-17-2020, 03:56 AM   #1794
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Love Sigg this weekend, particularly top 20 finish @17.00

My only concern is he will tee off today form the 10th and holes 13-18 have 6 of the hardest holes on the course and I believe momentum is a big + in golf so hopefully he navigates the his opening 9 well enough that he's not a dead dog by 18th.
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Old 09-17-2020, 12:50 PM   #1795
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

didnt bet reed even tho he had value because i don't know why

so of course he's t1
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Old 09-17-2020, 02:16 PM   #1796
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Been dabbling in some golf props.

Is PGAtour.com the industry standard for grading these?

Do stats like “fairways hit” , “green in regulation”, “driving distance” ever vary from different websites like PGA, ESPN, CBS?

Thanks in advance. Trying to clear up a grading dispute.
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Old 09-17-2020, 02:36 PM   #1797
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

for this week I would assume it would be the US OPEN website
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Old Yesterday, 09:37 AM   #1798
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

datagolf loves Zalatoris. 8.3 win percent this week. Seems a little high to me.
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Old Yesterday, 09:50 AM   #1799
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Have you seen the entry list? It's mostly Korn Ferry and Euro guys.

I don't have him as the favorite (have Corey Conners with Detry in a close second) but this tournament looks so bad I can understand why they have Zalatoris high.

I got elite ball striker and every touts favorite player Henrik Norlander at 1.1%. Wonder if they have more.

Think I might sit this one out. Bad course, bad players. Recipe for a rocket mortgage classic type disaster.
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Old Yesterday, 01:21 PM   #1800
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

It is going to play super easy this week with the wind forecasted to be < 10 mph all 4 days. The wind is usually the only defense for these wide open seaside resort courses.
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