Quote:
Originally Posted by El Sueno
Do you have a quantifiable way to determine whether to take a say a mid-pack guy that is 100/1+? Do you have say an edge cutoff point where if edge > x% you take a guy outright and if the edge > y% where y > x you decide that maybe you're not accounting for something? IIRC you mentioned something along these lines with Koepka at PGA Championship.
In my backtesting recently it seems like my win projections are at least in the neighborhood of what the market suggests for the top ranked players, but every event seems to have a handful of guys that fit that busto mold in say the mid-pack range that you mention with Herman.
I usually just stick to things like 50/1 and lower. There are cases like last week the field was ridiculously weak so I didn't mind laying 90/1 on Furyk. In that case I might bet 1-2 that have the highest expected growth. Or the Barracuda championship I had 80/1 on I think Schenk? The "putting doesn't matter" courses are also ones where I might take some longer shots to win. Same idea tho, focus on expected growth. So something might have a higher EV but lower growth. I'd take the growth one.
Realistically you only win a few of this every year. I've been getting about 4-5 from pre-tournament for each tour (4-5 on USA PGA, 4-5 on EURO) [much higher on taking winner in r3/r4, etc.] but I dunno what happened this year. Already won 9 and came close on 2. But also 1-37 this year on Euro PGA and honestly haven't even been close outside of Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez. Just insane positive variance on the real PGA tour.
Korn Ferry/LPGA/Champions I don't mind laying 100/1 because the odds are so bad, but sportsbooks really limit their liability on them.
For the super long shots betting top 20 is probably a better option in terms of return. I mean eventually Jim Herman is going to hit so do you want to lose 1k/week for 40 weeks of the season and then in year 5 finally hit it. If you have an unlimited bankroll sure, but I'm guessing you can get a better return doing other things with that money. Like yolo'ing tesla or kodak stock.
There's of course other real life implications such as if you do eventually hit a 600/1 golfer for a lot of money are they going to pay? Or any brick and mortar sportsbook that would accept that bet probably would ban you way before you actually realize your EV since if you can't beat william hill you're going to go broke anyway.
I'm assuming if anyone even hits the 5 mil to win at Bookmaker it might hurt them financially.