Had no DJ and only got 4/6 in my cash lineup through...and I basically broke even.

#CouldveBeenWorse

brag: had break even week due to good week in cash
beat: bet small amounts on Day and Matsuyama to win
variance: wasn't paying attention and bet on the Masters instead so still live

Lol nice

I ran 2000 sims for this week. Here are the DK salaries and win %. Predictably, lots of big names at the top plus the habitual ball striker (Deki).

Player Salary Wins
Justin Thomas 10800 7.9%
Hideki Matsuyama 8500 7.8%
Rory McIlroy 10300 6.7%
Jon Rahm 11000 6.5%
Xander Schauffele 9900 6.1%
Collin Morikawa 9500 5.3%
Adam Scott 8200 4.8%
Patrick Cantlay 8900 4.4%
Scottie Scheffler 9000 4.0%
Dustin Johnson 11500 3.7%
Bryson DeChambeau 10600 3.6%
Tiger Woods 8600 3.6%
Tyrrell Hatton 8300 3.4%
Paul Casey 8100 3.4%
Tony Finau 8700 3.4%
Viktor Hovland 8100 3.3%
Gary Woodland 7800 2.6%
Corey Conners 7200 2.6%
Daniel Berger 9700 2.4%
Russell Henley 7800 2.3%
Sungjae Im 7700 2.3%
Jason Kokrak 7500 2.3%
Abraham Ancer 7700 2.1%
Joaquin Niemann 7100 1.8%
Kevin Kisner 8400 1.6%
Matt Kuchar 7400 1.6%
Patrick Reed 8800 1.5%
Harris English 8300 1.3%
Adam Hadwin 7100 1.3%
Jason Day 9200 1.2%
Ryan Palmer 7600 1.2%
Bubba Watson 7600 0.9%
Byeong Hun An 6800 0.9%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 7900 0.9%
Billy Horschel 8000 0.7%
Brian Harman 6900 0.6%
Joel Dahmen 6500 0.6%
Kevin Streelman 6400 0.6%
Charles Howell III 6700 0.5%
J.T. Poston 6500 0.5%
Sebastian Munoz 6300 0.5%
Matthew Wolff 8200 0.5%
Mark Hubbard 7000 0.5%
Brendan Steele 6600 0.5%
Louis Oosthuizen 8000 0.4%
Cameron Champ 7500 0.4%
Max Homa 6800 0.4%
Talor Gooch 6600 0.4%
Dylan Frittelli 6500 0.4%
Nick Taylor 6100 0.4%
Brendon Todd 7400 0.4%
Kevin Na 7300 0.4%
Tyler Duncan 6400 0.4%
Robby Shelton 6400 0.3%
Adam Long 6300 0.3%
Tom Hoge 6100 0.3%
Marc Leishman 7200 0.3%
Lanto Griffin 6900 0.3%
Richy Werenski 6700 0.3%
Michael Thompson 6200 0.3%
Alex Noren 7900 0.2%
Danny Lee 6300 0.2%
Harry Higgs 6100 0.2%
Carlos Ortiz 6000 0.2%
Cameron Smith 7300 0.1%
Mackenzie Hughes 7000 0.1%
Jim Herman 6000 0.1%
Maverick McNealy 6200 0.0%
Andrew Landry 6200 0.0%

since there's less historical data at olympia fields this week, does that mean we should be doing less sims too?

DJ being the outright favorite sure doesn't seem to jive with him essentially a coin flip against Bryson and decent + odds against Rahm and JT. I don't bet outrights so don't usually pay a ton of attention to the pricing, but thought this was interesting that recent form seems to be turned up pretty good on DJ more so in outrights than in h2h.

I guess the volatility in his performance could benefit him in win % but make him less reliable in h2h matchups? Idk if this happens regularly or not, but just something I noticed today. Looks like DFS pricing him as the goat as well.

from my experience the h2h lines are much sharper because there's less leeway and the general public tends to only bet winners

Representing the general public

Justin Thomas @ 15.0 (3.15 units) 20% 1-6

just ran 10k sims and Alex Noren won 9,999 of them

it's likely a bug, but i'll probably put a buck on him to win it anyway

found the bug, introduced another baseline and it didn't come in for noren and that dropped his expected score by 10 points rather increase it by .10 or so

Golfer Win Implied Odds
Justin Thomas 1505 136
Dustin Johnson 957 61
Rory McIlroy 864 42
Jon Rahm 661 313
Bryson DeChambeau 618 63
Collin Morikawa 529 12
Patrick Cantlay 521 264
Hideki Matsuyama 390 53
Daniel Berger 350 11
Xander Schauffele 326 56
Tyrrell Hatton 317 250
Tony Finau 299 7
Scottie Scheffler 261 43
Paul Casey 239 16
Patrick Reed 237 17
Adam Scott 210 31
Sungjae Im 209 250
Billy Horschel 191 200
Gary Woodland 179 173
Matt Kuchar 165 106
Tiger Woods 164 200
Jason Day 160 66
Kevin Kisner 152 257
Russell Henley 132 139
Abraham Ancer 132 5000
Corey Conners 122 205
Viktor Hovland 122 345
Joaquin Niemann 117 118
Adam Hadwin 102 100
Harris English 100 76
Matthew Fitzpatrick 98 99
Kevin Streelman 95 589
Louis Oosthuizen 86 20
Carlos Ortiz 85 556
Alex Noren 76 286
Charles Howell III 74 29
Jason Kokrak 72 82
Kevin Na 67 76
Joel Dahmen 62 417
Byeong Hun An 59 556
Lanto Griffin 59 556
Nick Taylor 58 295
Ryan Palmer 50 286
Brian Harman 50 48
Brendan Steele 49 86
Brendon Todd 43 150
Andrew Landry 40 132
Cameron Champ 40 34
Mackenzie Hughes 40 715
Dylan Frittelli 39 170
Marc Leishman 38 32
Cameron Smith 38 26
Max Homa 35 162
J.T. Poston 35 250
Sebastian Munoz 34 264
Bubba Watson 32 477
Michael Thompson 29 48
Maverick McNealy 28 233
Talor Gooch 24 103
Robby Shelton 23 61
Matthew Wolff 21 82
Mark Hubbard 19 117
Tom Hoge 18 19
Tyler Duncan 18 39
Richy Werenski 18 358
Adam Long 17 170
Danny Lee 14 715
Harry Higgs 14 527
Jim Herman 2 435

..............name...... win_perc ...... top_10_perc

33448 justin thomas 0.0890 0.5250
30925 dustin johnson 0.0788 0.4472
28237 rory mcilroy 0.0512 0.3791
46970 jon rahm 0.0425 0.3705
48081 xander schauffele 0.0400 0.3338
35450 patrick cantlay 0.0340 0.3154
47959 bryson dechambeau 0.0327 0.2882
25364 paul casey 0.0306 0.2972
34360 patrick reed 0.0300 0.2963
29725 tony finau 0.0300 0.3248
50525 collin morikawa 0.0292 0.2854
32839 hideki matsuyama 0.0281 0.2826
34363 tyrrell hatton 0.0269 0.2836
40026 daniel berger 0.0266 0.2981
28089 jason day 0.0252 0.2851
46046 scottie scheffler 0.0205 0.2494
24502 adam scott 0.0193 0.2213
08793 tiger woods 0.0172 0.2280
34098 russell henley 0.0162 0.2154
29478 kevin kisner 0.0160 0.1994
23108 matt kuchar 0.0158 0.2213
56278 matthew wolff 0.0141 0.1770
31323 gary woodland 0.0138 0.1721
25396 kevin na 0.0138 0.1778
34099 harris english 0.0130 0.1739
45486 joaquin niemann 0.0115 0.1760
46717 viktor hovland 0.0106 0.1585
30927 brendon todd 0.0102 0.1315
36801 mark hubbard 0.0101 0.1471
45526 abraham ancer 0.0100 0.1557
26329 louis oosthuizen 0.0092 0.1598
46402 talor gooch 0.0092 0.1384
30944 jason kokrak 0.0087 0.1473
25804 bubba watson 0.0084 0.1442
26851 marc leishman 0.0081 0.1383
27644 brian harman 0.0078 0.1290
39971 sungjae im 0.0076 0.1503
21961 charles howell iii 0.0074 0.1385
35891 cameron smith 0.0072 0.1147
48822 sebastian munoz 0.0072 0.1233
27214 kevin streelman 0.0069 0.1262
23320 ryan palmer 0.0066 0.1050
27349 alex noren 0.0065 0.1277
35532 tom hoge 0.0064 0.1143
29420 billy horschel 0.0063 0.1279
29518 brendan steele 0.0060 0.1061
39997 corey conners 0.0056 0.1150
52372 cameron champ 0.0048 0.0916
33948 byeong hun an 0.0048 0.0857
35506 mackenzie hughes 0.0046 0.0980
49771 j.t. poston 0.0046 0.0883
33399 adam hadwin 0.0043 0.0940
40098 matthew fitzpatrick 0.0042 0.0836
29926 danny lee 0.0037 0.0779
35449 adam long 0.0036 0.0784
34076 joel dahmen 0.0035 0.0839
29970 dylan frittelli 0.0034 0.0853
32150 michael thompson 0.0034 0.0780
35310 lanto griffin 0.0034 0.0839
33410 andrew landry 0.0031 0.0666
39977 max homa 0.0030 0.0615
25493 nick taylor 0.0023 0.0702
46441 robby shelton 0.0022 0.0541
45609 tyler duncan 0.0022 0.0614
33597 harry higgs 0.0019 0.0558
33667 carlos ortiz 0.0019 0.0666
47128 richy werenski 0.0013 0.0430
46442 maverick mcnealy 0.0010 0.0335
31557 jim herman 0.0008 0.0273


No course data but guessing it play something like Harding Park/ Bethpage or Torrey Pines.

oh sweet baby covid jesus my stats are all strange, not sure what i uploaded will post again

Golfer W % Implied Odds
Justin Thomas 15.05% 7
Dustin Johnson 9.57% 11
Rory McIlroy 8.64% 12
Jon Rahm 6.61% 16
Bryson DeChambeau 6.18% 17
Collin Morikawa 5.29% 19
Patrick Cantlay 5.21% 20
Hideki Matsuyama 3.90% 26
Daniel Berger 3.50% 29
Xander Schauffele 3.26% 31
Tyrrell Hatton 3.17% 32
Tony Finau 2.99% 34
Scottie Scheffler 2.61% 39
Paul Casey 2.39% 42
Patrick Reed 2.37% 43
Adam Scott 2.10% 48
Sungjae Im 2.09% 48
Billy Horschel 1.91% 53
Gary Woodland 1.79% 56
Matt Kuchar 1.65% 61
Tiger Woods 1.64% 61
Jason Day 1.60% 63
Kevin Kisner 1.52% 66
Russell Henley 1.32% 76
Abraham Ancer 1.32% 76
Corey Conners 1.22% 82
Viktor Hovland 1.22% 82
Joaquin Niemann 1.17% 86
Adam Hadwin 1.02% 99
Harris English 1.00% 100
Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.98% 103
Kevin Streelman 0.95% 106
Louis Oosthuizen 0.86% 117
Carlos Ortiz 0.85% 118
Alex Noren 0.76% 132
Charles Howell III 0.74% 136
Jason Kokrak 0.72% 139
Kevin Na 0.67% 150
Joel Dahmen 0.62% 162
Byeong Hun An 0.59% 170
Lanto Griffin 0.59% 170
Nick Taylor 0.58% 173
Ryan Palmer 0.50% 200
Brian Harman 0.50% 200
Brendan Steele 0.49% 205
Brendon Todd 0.43% 233
Andrew Landry 0.40% 250
Cameron Champ 0.40% 250
Mackenzie Hughes 0.40% 250
Dylan Frittelli 0.39% 257
Marc Leishman 0.38% 264
Cameron Smith 0.38% 264
Max Homa 0.35% 286
J.T. Poston 0.35% 286
Sebastian Munoz 0.34% 295
Bubba Watson 0.32% 313
Michael Thompson 0.29% 345
Maverick McNealy 0.28% 358
Talor Gooch 0.24% 417
Robby Shelton 0.23% 435
Matthew Wolff 0.21% 477
Mark Hubbard 0.19% 527
Tom Hoge 0.18% 556
Tyler Duncan 0.18% 556
Richy Werenski 0.18% 556
Adam Long 0.17% 589
Danny Lee 0.14% 715
Harry Higgs 0.14% 715
Jim Herman 0.02% 5000

there we go

Iowa! are you slamming 7040 champ > woodland?

No. Someone probably has some info on Woodland. This would be the most idiotic way to bet it if so but def wouldn't fade the steam.

He didn't withdraw after his first shot. Will continue to monitor.

ya did none as well figured it was similar to the Cantlay steam from a few years back. looks like both steams were "wrong"

It went from -120/103 this AM to +122/-143 when you posted and then to 205/-245 once people started discussing it on Twitter. Identical trajectory on Woodland v Scott R1 too. P funny. Books going to crush if Woodland plays well.

so i'm guessing my initial noren sim didn't start any steam in his direction eh?

craziest golf steam i've ever seen

I'm surprised they left it up all the way to post. The year Finau dislocated his ankle during the Par 3 contest and the whole world faded him and then he almost won, they eventually just took all this match-ups down and everyone knew what was what in that instance.

maybe wanted to keep booking scott -225 lol

Woodland -2 so far today, now 8 up on Champ. Looking like a super unprofitable split at best for the inside info and steam chase syndicates. Hate to see it.

greyson sigg (55/1) about to take a 5 stroke lead into day 4 of the korn ferry tour championship

hope you guys still believed in him.

I totally forgot Korn Ferry was even a thing since you left

chances Rory drops out mid event because of his wife's pregnancy?