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Old 12-14-2019, 02:15 PM   #151
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by 4BetBoke View Post
The stars have aligned in the match ups to pair Im with Woodland:

2.5 units on Im @ 2.15
Nice pickup, the line has already shifted to 1.90 on my book. Tempting to tail this but since I am getting a worse price I guess I will just sit this one out.

I was able to pick up Adam Scott > Xander Schauffele at 1.90 (-110) on my book though. Projected for a tiny bit of value at 52.64%.

Best of luck.
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Old 12-14-2019, 02:37 PM   #152
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm seeing a lot of 1.91's and 1.95's, so was really happy with my price. This is a bit of a slam dunk bet for me, because I'm really bullish on Im and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Woodland didn't win again in the next few years. I may be way underestimating him though.

I see Adam Scott @ 2.1 on sky bet, I'm guessing your options are a lot more limited than mine if you're in the states?

Im will be my only bet, but here are the few that stood out to me:

Cantlay > Niemann @1.73
Li > Johnson @ 3.25
Matsuyama > Finau @ 2.05
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Old 12-14-2019, 04:15 PM   #153
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I see Adam Scott @ 2.1 on sky bet, I'm guessing your options are a lot more limited than mine if you're in the states?
Probably but that is changing, my state just legalized sports betting but the infrastructure isn't fully in place yet so staying away until it is ironed out.

Adam Scott @ 2.1 is printing.
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Old 12-14-2019, 04:17 PM   #154
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by 4BetBoke View Post

Im will be my only bet, but here are the few that stood out to me:

Cantlay > Niemann @1.73
Li > Johnson @ 3.25
Matsuyama > Finau @ 2.05
Where are you getting these prices? All of these are printing.
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Old 12-14-2019, 05:14 PM   #155
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I use odds checker to shop the prices and I have an account at most sites that are listed.

For example, Cantlay is 1.53 on bet365 and 1.73 on sky. Li is 2.75 on betfred and 3.25 on unibet etc. So I'll just look through and make my picks from there.

A lot of my wins this year came from using oddschecker in game to find books that had failed to update their prices. For example, Danny Lee has 4 birdies in his first 5 holes in X event and I see him corrected down to 17.0 William Hill, but still at 41.0 on Ladbrokes, then i'll fire big (sometimes too big). This happens way more often than you'd expect, especially at the start of events.

On odds checker you can also be signed into the different books and quick bet through their site. It just takes watching the event / scanning the prices and trying to get it through before they update.
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Old 12-14-2019, 05:43 PM   #156
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Nice, you might want to consider betting more of these. You are finding some pretty big edges.
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Old 12-14-2019, 06:00 PM   #157
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I added 1.0 units on Matsuyama > Finau (sadly corrected down to 2.0)

Gl with your bet!
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Old 12-14-2019, 07:34 PM   #158
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Added late:

Li > Johnson @ 2.80
Smith > Thomas @ 2.85
Lieshman > Fowler @ 2.25 (2 units)
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Old 12-14-2019, 07:42 PM   #159
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Sharp money pours in on Woodland late. I have to tail it.

Pick: Woodland 1.85
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Old 12-14-2019, 11:48 PM   #160
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I added 1.0 units on Matsuyama > Finau (sadly corrected down to 2.0)

Gl with your bet!
Nice win with Im and a tough chop with Matsyama but you have to feel good about the day. Today is looking a little rough for me depending on how this finishes out.
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Old 12-15-2019, 01:07 AM   #161
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I was able to pick up Adam Scott > Xander Schauffele at 1.90 (-110) on my book though. Projected for a tiny bit of value at 52.64%.

Best of luck.
Quote:
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Added late:

Li > Johnson @ 2.80
Smith > Thomas @ 2.85
Lieshman > Fowler @ 2.25 (2 units)
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Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT View Post

Pick: Woodland 1.85

Record: 1-3-2

Cody Golf Fund Net Return: -115%
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Old 12-15-2019, 09:18 AM   #162
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Nice win with Im and a tough chop with Matsyama but you have to feel good about the day. Today is looking a little rough for me depending on how this finishes out.
Yeah, not too bad! The matches were swingier than I anticipated. Matusyama was at 1.01 after 9 holes, uncharacteristic of him to have those unforced errors.

Weekly profit + 0.9 units

Total profit + 32.85 units
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Old 12-17-2019, 12:10 PM   #163
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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A lot of my wins this year came from using oddschecker in game to find books that had failed to update their prices. For example, Danny Lee has 4 birdies in his first 5 holes in X event and I see him corrected down to 17.0 William Hill, but still at 41.0 on Ladbrokes, then i'll fire big (sometimes too big). This happens way more often than you'd expect, especially at the start of events.

On odds checker you can also be signed into the different books and quick bet through their site. It just takes watching the event / scanning the prices and trying to get it through before they update.
I hope that you have plenty of friends and relatives to open accounts as you're going to get shut down. And also note that there is always a chance that a site will claim palpable error and void a winning bet, if you take a stale or well out of line price.
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Old 12-19-2019, 07:05 PM   #164
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Thanks for the heads up.

It's pretty f'd up that bookies can essentially print money, then still ban people for winning at prices they offer. I guess I'll just continue the party when the lights are on and re-assess if accounts start getting limited or shut down. I do have friends / relatives I could open accounts under if it comes to it, though.

I'm far from a professional sports bettor, this is just a side hobby for me, so will carry on and see how it plays out. I wouldn't be overly surprised if I break-even or lose next year, but I'm inclined to believe I can turn a profit.

The results will be posted here all the same and i'll update if/when any accounts get shut down.
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Old 12-20-2019, 02:28 AM   #165
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I'm far from a professional sports bettor, this is just a side hobby for me, so will carry on and see how it plays out. I wouldn't be overly surprised if I break-even or lose next year, but I'm inclined to believe I can turn a profit.
With your results you had me fooled. I hope we both do well in 2020.
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Old 01-03-2020, 02:54 AM   #166
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

No bets this week, but keeping an eye out to get warmed up. Definitely going to be keeping an eye out on: Griffin / Todd/ Poston and ofc Conners.

I'll definitely be sleeping on Casey and Jonson for the start of the season.
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Old 01-06-2020, 09:38 PM   #167
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Sony Open Hawaii

SungJae Im @ 26.0 (1.0 units) 20% 1-7
Niemann @ 34.0 (0.8 units) 20% 1-7
Ancer @ 58.0 (0.5 units) 25% 1-5

Niemann had a good showing last week and Ancer played well both in the presidents cup and back at the Mayakoba. I'll be firing a lot on Im for the time being.

Happy new year everyone and gl. Good to be back in business.
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Old 01-08-2020, 10:44 PM   #168
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

What's Vaughan Taylor look odds-like?
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Old 01-09-2020, 08:46 AM   #169
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Sony Open Hawaii

SungJae Im @ 26.0 (1.0 units) 20% 1-7
Niemann @ 34.0 (0.8 units) 20% 1-7
Ancer @ 58.0 (0.5 units) 25% 1-5

Niemann had a good showing last week and Ancer played well both in the presidents cup and back at the Mayakoba. I'll be firing a lot on Im for the time being.

Happy new year everyone and gl. Good to be back in business.
Those are three guys in my initial cash game line so very happy seeing this
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:07 PM   #170
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rickroll, Good luck to us!

Precept, I'm seeing 91.0 on William Hill, which is actually very good. Not like them to actually have a good price. I'm going to add a few longer odds fillers to the line up for the week, happy with these prices and should do a good job of reducing variance at low cost.

Vaughn Taylor @91.0 (0.25 units) 20% 1-6
Lanto Griffin @ 81.0 (0.25 units) 20% 1-7
Rory Sabattini @81.0 (0.25 units) 25% 1-5

The 20% 1-6 each way terms on Taylor are a bit of a robbery, not going to complain at that price though.
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Old 01-09-2020, 01:22 PM   #171
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Only made a single cash line and this is my biggest sweat https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...6612/108133119

I'm "Adam" gl to us indeed

contest only had 2 guys in it with 3 minutes before lock... I understand they normally get bum rushed for overlay at the last minute but super annoying whenever someone caps it... I understand the rush to get spots 3,4,&5 but the guy waiting until 5 seconds before lock to take the last spot and kill overlay is just a degenerate looking for last minute action

Pretty weak group so I'm very happy about that, aboveandbeyond is kind of the pga DFS end boss but the rest are just bad regs. Golf is the sport I struggle with the most, small winner in cash and overall loser in tournament (but that is possibly just variance/sample size)
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Old 01-09-2020, 02:29 PM   #172
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

rick,

I know I could google this but you seem really well versed; can you explain exactly how DFS works with the lock outs and overlays and the big multi accounters? How that affects everything? Ive never done much at all with DFS, it all seems kind scammy to me for some reason. How are players priced for NHL for example. I assume the opponent is priced in? Like if Pastarnak is going against the worst PK in the league one night his price would be worse than average, right?
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Old 01-10-2020, 08:40 AM   #173
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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rick,

I know I could google this but you seem really well versed; can you explain exactly how DFS works with the lock outs and overlays and the big multi accounters? How that affects everything? Ive never done much at all with DFS, it all seems kind scammy to me for some reason. How are players priced for NHL for example. I assume the opponent is priced in? Like if Pastarnak is going against the worst PK in the league one night his price would be worse than average, right?
Government legislation declares that all contests must have a maximum amount of entrances. It's not like poker where unlimited about of people can join a MTT. There's also no "late registration" or anything of that sort.

For whatever reason, people broadly ignore non guaranteed contests so overwhelming majority are guaranteed. Normally they fill, but sometimes the sites have difficulty in predicting interest and you can occasionally find incredible overlay opportunity. Even more so in the smaller sites.

Player pricing is fairly efficient to account for opponent, recent performance and overall ownership interest but the sites keep the methodology a secret. However, it's static so when someone has a dramatically new role ie a backup RB getting the starting job they remain minimally priced.

However, there's always a couple head scratchers that are criminally under priced. Some feel it's just guys who slip through the cracks, I feel it's intentional to drive interest. IE someone thinks Rubio is way too cheap tonight so they'll enter $100 worth of contests instead of his normal $10.

The multi accounting has been a problem for years. Again, state legislation forced them to put in a limit on entries so people starting signing up their brother or their friend. They don't even hide that they work together. They say "we discuss projections and strategy together" which is allowed but deny the one thing they are not allowed to do stating "we do not coordinate our lines to ensure we don't duplicate each other." This is a lie, everyone knows it's a lie. But the sites have plausible deniability so they each time they do an internal investigation they find the accused parties innocent. Most of these guys are ex poker players.

The issue with the bachelor and bachelorette is that as D list celebrities the mainstream news locked onto the cheating and this happened just as the site is about to go public so now there is huge scrutiny and the second place finisher is already filling a lawsuit.

Furthermore, another ex bachelor who works as a tout got so hyped up he made all these celebratory tweets about his buddy winning and further went on to say a bunch of other stuff like that they hand build 150 lineups each and that he was on the phone with his buddy at the end sweating it out. Then the bachelor himself tells espn they use software instead of hand holding so now you know one is lying etc etc (the hand build is an obvious lie btw difference between 12 hours of work vs 10 minutes) He then went and deleted all those because people picked up that he outed his friend as a cheater because it was his wife's account that won. His wife who regularly tweets about hating sports and how just weeks ago the guy said on a bachelor reunion thing or something that the thing his wife hated most any him was fantasy football. As Instagram people there's also a long digital trail of her making it clear that DFS was his thing only and they are often not even in the same place at the same time on game days so draft kings could easily just do an IP check to prove it.

They also went about dividing the lineps incredibly stupidly giving afc QBs to one account and nfc QBs to the other instead of randomizing it. So clearly they coordinated this to avoid delicates. And they even used their real names and pictures on the accounts so when they won people both knew who won instead of "gobears427"

Basically, they went about the dumbest possible way.

But here's the thing, whatever DK does they are screwed. If they find them innocent then there will probably be a government investigation into them not enforcing government stipulations. But if they do enforce it then it really begs the question how they can then not look back at other obvious colluders and not come down on them too.

At the end of the day, if I use a given set of projections and use an optimizer to make just 10 lineups then my buddy does the same then we're going to naturally end up having a couple duplicate lineups. These guys say they work together to make one set of projections and then magically make 150 lineups each and independently without consulting the other and none of them overlap each other. It's simply impossible they aren't coordinating that, which is very clearly stated to be against the rules. There's a paper trail on all these guys going back years so there's about evidence.

Making it even more interesting is that they always have the same cash line where being unique doesn't matter you just need to be better than 55% of other lines. This is why they are forced to admit they use the same projections because that's the only way they can explain that their cash lines are always identical but the 150x gpp lines always unique. It's beyond absurd.

For example you'll see in that 6 man contest that there's another account with the same line as aboveandbeyond so now I know who his new partner is. He used to work with losingitall and makeitrain but I haven't seen those two around lately.

The real thing is that something like 93% of the money put into play each week is by the same top 1% and they win like 97% of all the money so while they are profiting as they syphon money off the casuals, those handful of guys keep those sites in business. So the sites had extremely good reasons to look other other way. Now it doesn't seem like they can continue to do that so it's very interesting times indeed.

A lot of people are predicting that DK and FD may just drop DFS altogether and focus on sportsbetting entirely rather than continue this lawsuit magnet going.

Last edited by rickroll; 01-10-2020 at 08:55 AM.
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Old 01-10-2020, 08:44 AM   #174
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

And yeah pastrnak is one of the few guys who's basically max priced with little variation night to night. I'll play him in cash most home games that aren't b2b or vs a great team.

The real edge is in rostering guys who are "on cold steaks" as prices move enough throughout the year where they can be double or half what they were the previous month and yet you know the underlying talent is still the same. This most often happens in baseball where it's not uncommon for lengthy streaks.
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Old 01-11-2020, 09:15 PM   #175
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

The Vaughn Taylor rec was good Precept, didn't all piece together, but he gave it a go today
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